Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 18:08 UTC

Major Updates (17:38 UTC - 18:08 UTC)

1. UMPK Guided Bomb Strikes (Confirmed, Tactical):

   • Fighterbomber provides video footage showcasing the use of UMPK (Unifitsirovannyi Modul Planirovaniya i Korrektsii - Unified Gliding and Correction Module) guided bombs. The video demonstrates the bomb's speed and impact. The source emphasizes the difficulty of intercepting these munitions with small arms fire, despite some Ukrainian claims. They assert no confirmed successful interceptions by Ukraine.
   • Assessment: This confirms the continued use of UMPK guided bombs by Russian forces. It highlights their effectiveness and the challenges they pose to Ukrainian air defenses. The claim of no successful interceptions requires independent verification, but the video evidence supports the difficulty of intercepting such fast-moving munitions.

2. Kursk Kindergarten Fire (Claimed, EXTREME PRIORITY, Requires Verification):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing a burning building, identified as a kindergarten in Kursk. The video includes sounds of secondary explosions, prompting speculation about whether it was caused by slate roofing or ammunition detonations.
   • Assessment: This potentially adds to the evidence of attacks within the Kursk region. The identification as a kindergarten, if confirmed, is extremely significant and could constitute a war crime. The cause of the fire and the secondary explosions require immediate and thorough investigation. The possibility of ammunition storage in a civilian building is a major concern.

3. Baltic States Energy Independence (Confirmed, Strategic):

   • Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація): Multiple sources, including President Zelensky, confirm the disconnection of the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) from the Russian energy grid and their synchronization with the European continental system. Zelensky emphasizes this reduces Russia's ability to use energy as a weapon and calls for further energy independence efforts across Europe, including increased cooperation with the US (LNG, oil) and other regions (Caucasus, Middle East, North Africa).
   • Assessment: This represents a significant strategic shift, reducing Russia's leverage over the Baltic states and strengthening European energy security. It aligns with broader efforts to diminish Russia's economic power and influence. The call for further diversification highlights the ongoing need to reduce European reliance on Russian energy sources.

4. 46th Airmobile Brigade Weekly Report (Confirmed, Tactical):

   • 46 окрема аеромобільна бригада ДШВ ЗС України: The 46th Airmobile Brigade released a video report detailing their defensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction, near Kurakhove, for the week of February 1-8, 2025. They claim to have repelled multiple Russian attacks and inflicted significant losses: 86 personnel, 146 UAVs (MAVICs and FPVs), 3 wing-type UAVs, 3 motor vehicles, 1 motorcycle, 3 artillery systems, 1 BM-21 "Grad" MLRS, and 3 surveillance/reconnaissance assets. They also appeal for public financial support.
   • Assessment: This confirms continued intense fighting in the Kurakhove area, with the 46th Brigade playing a key defensive role. The claimed Russian losses, if accurate, indicate significant attrition. The focus on repelling attacks suggests a primarily defensive posture. The appeal for public support may indicate resource constraints.

5. Ukrainian Business/Industry Power Restrictions (Confirmed, Tactical):

   • РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ: Ukrenergo announces planned power restrictions for Ukrainian businesses and industry on February 10, 2025, from 6:00 AM to 9:00 PM, due to damage from previous Russian missile and drone attacks. Residential outages are not currently expected.
   • Assessment: This confirms the continued impact of Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. While residential outages are not planned, the restrictions on business and industry will have economic consequences and highlight the vulnerability of the energy grid.

6. 58th Motorized Brigade Photo Essay (Confirmed, Contextual):

   • ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦: Photos from Staff Sergeant Maxim Feofanov of the 58th Motorized Brigade are published, showcasing the temporary living quarters of an AS-90 self-propelled howitzer crew. The text emphasizes their readiness to engage Russian forces.
   • Assessment: The photos provide further confirmation on the daily life of the 58th Motorized Brigade, and provides the Ukrainian population insight into their daily activities.

7. Alleged Trump-Putin Conversation (Claimed, Geopolitical):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Kotsnews, Alex Parker Returns: Multiple sources report on an alleged phone call between Trump and Putin, where Trump claims to have pressured Putin to "stop" and threatened that failure to reach a "deal" could result in Russian territories being incorporated into the Ukrainian constitution. Russian sources dismiss this as bluster or a "hoax."
   • Assessment: The veracity of this claim is highly questionable, particularly given the source biases. However, it highlights the potential for unpredictable shifts in US policy under a Trump administration. The claim itself, regardless of truth, can be used for propaganda purposes by both sides.

8. Alleged Russian Deserters in Bryansk Region (Claimed, Requires Verification):

   • РБК-Україна: Reports on an intercepted conversation of a Russian villager in the Bryansk region warning another to be vigilant due to runaway soldiers from the Russian army.
   • Assessment: This, if true, suggests potential morale and discipline problems within Russian forces in the border region. It requires further verification but could indicate a vulnerability that Ukraine could exploit.

9. FPV Drone Attack on Civilian Vehicle (Claimed, Requires Verification):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺: Reports a Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a civilian car in the Zaporizhzhia region, claiming the driver survived by swerving at the last moment. They accuse Ukrainian forces of targeting civilians.
   • Assessment: It is possible that the civilian vehicle was attacked. Further investigations are needed.

10. Claim of Ukrainian Military Advances (Claim, Biased Source):

• БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС: Claims that Ukrainian forces liberated 532 sq km (mostly in the Kursk region) while Russian forces captured 4455 sq km between February 8, 2024, and February 8, 2025.
• Assessment: This claim comes from a Ukrainian source and presents a highly skewed picture of territorial control. While Russian advances are likely, the exact figures require independent verification. The specific claim of Ukrainian gains mostly in the Kursk region needs very careful scrutiny.

11. Russian Drone Operations and Countermeasures (Confirmed, Tactical):

• MoD Russia: Shows a video showcasing the activities of Russian Airborne Troops' UAV teams from Stavropol, operating within the Dnepr Group of Forces. They highlight the destruction of Ukrainian drones (including Mavic UAVs) using various methods: air ramming, net guns, small arms, and cooperation with electronic warfare (EW) units. They also claim to test and repurpose captured Ukrainian drones.
• Assessment: This confirms the continued importance of drone warfare and counter-drone measures on both sides. The Russian emphasis on multiple interception methods indicates a recognition of the evolving threat. The claim of repurposing captured drones is significant if true.

12. Claimed Ukrainian Drone Elimination (Claimed, Tactical):

• Оперативний ЗСУ: Shows a video of a destroyed member of the Russian forces.
• Assessment: Confirms the death of the soldier.

Updated Situation

• Intensified Fighting on Multiple Fronts, Especially Pokrovsk and Kursk (EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains a critical focus, with ongoing reports of fighting. The situation in Kursk is particularly concerning due to multiple reports of attacks and potential atrocities.
• Drone Warfare (EXTREME PRIORITY): Continues to dominate, with confirmed Ukrainian strategic focus ("Line of Drones") and ongoing reports of both offensive and defensive drone operations. Russian adaptations (UMPK guided bombs, counter-drone tactics) are being observed.
• Alleged Atrocity in Kursk Region (NEW, EXTREME PRIORITY, Requires Verification): Multiple reports, including the potential targeting of a kindergarten, require immediate and thorough investigation.
• Energy Security (Strategic Shift): The Baltic states' disconnection from the Russian energy grid represents a major strategic development, weakening Russia's leverage and strengthening European energy security.
• Ukrainian Infrastructure Under Attack: Planned power restrictions for Ukrainian businesses and industry confirm the ongoing impact of Russian strikes on energy infrastructure.
• Shifting Geopolitical Landscape: Potential changes in US policy remain a concern, with conflicting reports and claims about Trump's interactions with Putin.
• Ballistic missile threat: No new updates.
• Baltic energy situation: Confirmed disconnection from the Russian grid.
• Chasiv Yar Situation (HIGH PRIORITY): Russian use of netting requires evaluation.

Updated Recommendations

1. Prioritize Investigation of Alleged Atrocity (EXTREME PRIORITY): Unchanged. Remains the highest priority. Verify the reports from Kursk, especially the alleged targeting of a kindergarten. Determine the cause of the fire and explosions. If confirmed, gather evidence for potential war crimes charges.
2. Exploit and Expand "Line of Drones" Initiative (EXTREME PRIORITY): Unchanged.
3. Address Potential Shift in US Policy (HIGH PRIORITY): Unchanged. Monitor for any concrete evidence of changes in US support or communication with Russia.
4. Monitor and Counter Russian Advances (EXTREME PRIORITY): Unchanged. Focus remains on Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Kursk.
5. Address Energy Vulnerability (High Priority): Monitor the impact of power restrictions on Ukrainian industry. Continue efforts to repair damaged infrastructure and enhance energy security.
6. Evaluate Russian UMPK Guided Bomb Threat (High Priority): Gather intelligence on the deployment and effectiveness of UMPK guided bombs. Develop and implement countermeasures, focusing on air defense capabilities.
7. Investigate Potential Russian Morale Issues (Medium Priority): Verify reports of Russian deserters in the Bryansk region. If confirmed, explore opportunities to exploit this vulnerability through information operations.
8. Maintain All Previous Recommendations: The new information reinforces existing priorities, with adjustments as noted above.
9. Address Far-Right Elements (High Priority):
   • Counteract anti-Ukrainian propaganda, especially by those sympathetic to the far-right.
10. Prepare for Iranian Actions (Medium Priority):

• Monitor Iran and prepare for them to be further emboldened.

11. Prepare for Russian Propaganda Campaign (High Priority):

• Expect claims of the destruction of NATO weaponry to continue.

12. Verify Claims of Drone Attacks on Civilian Vehicles (High Priority):

• Gather additional information on claimed attacks to confirm whether civilians are being targeted.

13. Verify Territorial Control Claims (High Priority):

• Independently assess claims of territorial gains and losses by both sides.

The situation remains highly dynamic and complex, with multiple critical areas requiring immediate attention. The alleged atrocity in Kursk, the ongoing drone warfare, and the shifting geopolitical landscape are the most pressing concerns.