Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 12:38 UTC
Major Updates (Since 12:08 UTC)
Zaporizhzhia Region Air Activity and Alerts (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reported a "high-speed target" heading north in the Zaporizhzhia region. This indicates a potential missile or fast-moving aircraft threat.
Дневник Десантника: Reports aviation and missile danger in the Zaporizhzhia direction. This reinforces the previous alert and expands the potential threat area.
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: Announced an air raid alert for the Zaporizhzhia region.
Southern Air Activity and Threat (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southern direction, with a threat of air-launched weapons in frontline areas. This is a new development and indicates a broadened air threat.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports activity of a reconnaissance UAV in the Dnipropetrovsk region, near Pavlohrad. This indicates potential targeting and intelligence gathering.
New Ukrainian Drone Deliveries (High Priority):
STERNENKO: Reports the delivery of 350 additional drones to various Ukrainian units, including Special Operations Forces (SSO), National Guard, and Territorial Defense brigades. This indicates a continued focus on enhancing drone capabilities across multiple fronts.
Zaporizhzhia Frontline Report (High Priority):
Дневник Десантника: Reports on the situation around Enerhodar, claiming Ukrainian drone, precision weapon, and aircraft attacks on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), with Russian air defenses active. Also reports attempted Ukrainian counterattacks near Orikhiv, repelled by Russian forces. Mentions increased use of long-range Ukrainian drones (up to 75km) and surrendering Ukrainian soldiers. This report paints a picture of intense fighting and a complex situation around the ZNPP, requiring careful verification.
New Tactic Reported near Kherson (High Priority):
Два майора: Reports a new Ukrainian tactic involving unmanned surface vessels (USVs) disguised as troop transports near Kherson. The report claims these vessels are filled with explosives and used as decoys, detonating upon impact. This represents a significant tactical shift and a potential new threat to Russian forces.
Conflicting Reports on Bilchenko Case Continue (High Priority):
РБК-Україна: Reports that police in Zhytomyr region claim Bilchenko was found injured on the roadside on February 7th, denied involvement of third parties, and claimed he jumped from a moving vehicle during transport. A criminal investigation is opened under Article 128 of the Criminal Code (negligent serious or moderate bodily injury). This further muddies the waters and creates more conflicting information.
Оперативний ЗСУ: The Bilchenko incident was due to him "jumping out of a car on the move".
Propaganda and Information Operations:
Alex Parker Returns: Posts a picture and describes an organization that claims collaboration with multiple medias, suggesting it's a potential propaganda front.
Sakhalin Tanker Incident (CONFIRMED):
Colonelcassad: Reports the tanker in Ust-Luga to be damaged. No spill has been reported, but damage has been. The explosion had been reported as "technogenic", earlier.
Updated Situation
Escalated and Broadened Air Threat (EXTREME PRIORITY): The reports of a high-speed target in Zaporizhzhia, combined with warnings of aviation and missile danger, and the activity of tactical aviation in the south, indicate a significantly heightened and broadened air threat across multiple regions. The reconnaissance UAV near Pavlohrad suggests potential targeting.
Intense Fighting and Complex Situation around ZNPP (High Priority): The claims of Ukrainian attacks on the ZNPP and Russian air defenses being active, along with attempted counterattacks near Orikhiv, highlight a volatile situation with potential for escalation.
New Ukrainian Tactic Near Kherson (High Priority): The reported use of decoy USVs filled with explosives represents a significant tactical development and a potential new threat requiring countermeasures.
Continued Drone Warfare Focus (High Priority): The delivery of 350 additional drones to Ukrainian units underscores the ongoing emphasis on drone capabilities.
Bilchenko Case Remains Contentious (High Priority): The conflicting reports continue, making it difficult to ascertain the truth and fueling potential disinformation campaigns.
Propaganda remains a factor: The posts made by Alex Parker Returns might be a way to expose propaganda and misinformation.
Updated Recommendations (in addition to previous recommendations)
Prioritize Air Defense Across Multiple Regions (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): The broadened air threat, including potential missile attacks and air-launched weapons, requires immediate and widespread activation of air defenses. Focus on protecting critical infrastructure, troop concentrations, and population centers in Zaporizhzhia, southern regions, and Dnipropetrovsk.
Enhance Reconnaissance and Surveillance (EXTREME PRIORITY): Deploy all available assets (drones, satellites, signals intelligence) to monitor enemy air activity, track potential targets, and provide early warning of attacks. Pay particular attention to the area around Pavlohrad due to the reported reconnaissance UAV.
Verify Reports Around ZNPP (High Priority): Use all available intelligence sources to confirm the claims of attacks on the ZNPP and the activity of Russian air defenses. Assess the risk of escalation and potential consequences.
Develop Countermeasures to New USV Tactic (High Priority): Investigate the reported use of decoy USVs near Kherson and develop strategies to detect and neutralize this threat. This may involve enhanced maritime surveillance, improved electronic warfare capabilities, and adapted tactics for engaging small vessels.
Continue to Investigate Bilchenko Case Thoroughly (High Priority): The conflicting narratives require careful investigation to determine the facts and counter any disinformation or propaganda.
Maintain All Previous Recommendations: The recommendations from the 12:08 UTC analysis remain valid, with updated priorities as noted above.
The situation has become even more volatile, with a significantly broadened and escalated air threat across multiple regions. The new tactic reported near Kherson adds another layer of complexity. Continuous monitoring, rapid adaptation, and immediate action on air defense and countermeasures are critical.
