Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 10:38 UTC

Major Updates (Since February 9, 2025, 10:08 UTC)

1. Toretsk Remains Under Ukrainian Control (Confirmed): РБК-Україна publishes a video report featuring a spokesperson for the "Khortytsia" operational-strategic group (OSUV). The spokesperson categorically denies Russian claims of capturing Toretsk, stating that urban fighting is ongoing and that the claims are intended to distract from Russian losses in the Kursk region. This is a crucial confirmation from a Ukrainian military source, directly contradicting Russian claims and highlighting an ongoing information battle.

2. Pokrovsk Shelling: Casualties and Damage (Confirmed): ASTRA reports that four people were injured in Pokrovsk, Donetsk region, due to Russian shelling. Damage includes four multi-story buildings, one private house, a utility building, and a vehicle. This confirms another instance of Russian attacks impacting civilian areas and causing casualties and damage.

3. Russian POW Interview (Video Evidence, Potentially Significant): Николаевский Ванёк publishes a video interview with a captured Russian soldier, Evgeniy Alexandrovich. He details his recruitment from prison, deployment to the "New York" area (near Toretsk), lack of experienced leadership, and treatment after being wounded and captured by the "Azov" unit. While the source is pro-Ukrainian, the video provides a first-hand account of a Russian soldier's experience, including potential recruitment issues, poor leadership, and prisoner treatment. This information requires verification but offers valuable insights.

4. Russian Counterattacks Repelled in Kursk (Claimed, Russian MoD): ТАСС, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, claims that Russian forces repelled three Ukrainian counterattacks in the Kursk region and continued their offensive, inflicting heavy losses (over 320 troops and five tanks) on Ukrainian forces. This is an official claim from a primary source (Russian MoD) and should be treated with caution, but it indicates continued fighting in the Kursk region.

5. Verkhnekamenskoe Assault (Video Evidence, Potentially Significant): Сливочный каприз publishes video footage and a map overlay claiming to show a Russian infantry assault on a Ukrainian strongpoint near Verkhnekamenskoe (Seversk direction). The footage, if authentic, indicates ongoing Russian offensive activity in this area and provides visual evidence of tactical approaches.

6. Ukrainian Propaganda Video (Reported): Alex Parker Returns reports on a video released by Ukrainian sources showing the destruction of a Pushkin bust, accompanied by the message "Kill the Russian culture within you, or it will kill you." This is a significant example of information warfare and cultural targeting, aiming to mobilize Ukrainian resistance and reject Russian cultural influence.

7. Ust-Luga Tanker Incident (Confirmed): Оперативний ЗСУ reports on an incident involving the tanker "Koala" in the port of Ust-Luga, Leningrad region. The tanker experienced explosions in the engine room, leading to flooding and grounding. The crew evacuated safely, and there is no oil spill reported. This is a significant event, potentially impacting Russian logistics and highlighting infrastructure vulnerability, even far from the front lines.

8. Mariupol Defense Film Screenings in UK (Reported): Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports on screenings of the film "People of Steel" in the UK, documenting the defense of Mariupol and the plight of Ukrainian prisoners of war. This is a significant effort to raise international awareness and garner support for Ukraine, focusing on human rights issues and the experiences of POWs.

9. Shahed Drone Stuck in Kyiv Building (Confirmed): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a Shahed drone got stuck in a new building in the Kyiv region. Fortunately, no one was killed, no injuries were sustained, and a fire did not break out. This confirms continued drone attacks, even reaching the capital region, though with limited impact in this instance.

10. M113 APC Destroyed (Video Evidence, Claimed): Kotsnews publishes video footage purportedly showing a Russian FPV drone attack destroying a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier in the Konstantinovka direction. This, if authentic, demonstrates the continued use and effectiveness of drone warfare in targeting armored vehicles.

11. Chef Accused of Funding AFU (Reported): Север.Реалии reports that a Russian court has issued an arrest warrant for a chef and former TV host, Kristina Chernyakhovskaya, accusing her of calling for donations to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This indicates a crackdown on dissent within Russia and efforts to suppress support for Ukraine.

12. Russian MoD Briefing (Official Statement, Confirmed): Colonelcassad posts a summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense briefing, reiterating claims of Ukrainian losses and Russian successes. This is an official statement, reflecting the Russian perspective and requiring independent verification, but providing insight into their claimed achievements and objectives.

13. Alleged Forced Mobilization in Lviv (Reported): Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны posts a report alleging that a university lecturer in Lviv was forcibly mobilized, subjected to a rushed and inadequate medical assessment, and later found injured near Kyiv. This report, if confirmed, highlights potential abuses in Ukrainian mobilization efforts and requires investigation.

14. New Russian Drone (Reported): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Russia has developed a new long-range kamikaze drone called "Italmas" (Product-54), supposedly superior to the "Lancet." This indicates a potential escalation in drone warfare capabilities and requires further investigation.

15. Air Raid Alerts (Confirmed): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report air raid alerts in the Zaporizhzhia region and a threat of air attacks in the south-eastern direction. This confirms continued air activity and potential threats to multiple regions.

16. Destroyed Vehicles in Kursk Region (Video Evidence, Claimed): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition publishes video footage showing destroyed military vehicles in the Sudzhansky district of the Kursk region, claiming they were destroyed during a Ukrainian offensive on February 6th. This provides visual evidence of combat in the Kursk region, though the scale and circumstances require independent verification.

17. Oil Pipeline Rupture in Samara Region (Confirmed): ASTRA reports an oil pipeline rupture in the Samara region, causing a spill of 700 square meters. This is a significant environmental incident and could potentially disrupt oil supplies, though the direct impact on the Ukraine conflict is unclear.

18. Ukrainian Offensive Tactics Critique (Reported): Старше Эдды provides an analysis of recent Ukrainian offensive actions in the Kursk region, criticizing their tactics as "NATO-style" and ineffective against a well-equipped opponent. This offers a critical perspective on Ukrainian military strategies and highlights potential weaknesses.

19. Claimed Capture of Russian Cavalry (Photo Evidence, Likely Satirical): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a photo of soldiers with a camel, sarcastically claiming the capture of "Russian cavalry." This is likely a satirical post, not a serious report of combat.

20. FAB-500 Airstrike (Video Evidence, Claimed): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes video footage purportedly showing a Russian FAB-500 airstrike on a Ukrainian strongpoint in the South Donetsk direction. This, if authentic, demonstrates continued Russian airpower usage and targeting of fortified positions.

Updated Situation

• Toretsk Remains Contested: The key update is the confirmed Ukrainian denial of Russia's capture of Toretsk. This is now an active information battle, with both sides making conflicting claims. The situation in Toretsk is likely characterized by ongoing urban warfare, with neither side having full control.
• Kursk Region Fighting Continues: Reports from both sides confirm continued fighting in the Kursk region, with Russia claiming to have repelled Ukrainian counterattacks and inflicted heavy losses. The scale and exact location of these engagements remain unclear, with conflicting claims and limited independent verification.
• Drone Warfare Intensifies: Reports of drone attacks, both successful and unsuccessful, continue to dominate the battlefield. The potential introduction of a new, longer-range Russian drone ("Italmas") represents a potential escalation in this domain.
• Civilian Impact Continues: Confirmed reports of shelling in Pokrovsk and Nikopol, along with the Shahed drone incident in Kyiv, underscore the continued impact of the war on civilian populations and infrastructure.
• Information Warfare Rages: Conflicting claims about Toretsk, reports of Ukrainian propaganda videos, and analyses of tactical approaches all highlight the ongoing information battle alongside the physical conflict.
• Russian Internal Issues: Reports of the Sakhalin ship, the oil pipeline incident, and the chef facing the law further reinforce that Russia is having internal complications.

Updated Recommendations (in addition to previous recommendations)

1. Maintain Focus on Toretsk (Extremely High Priority): Given the conflicting claims and confirmed ongoing fighting, prioritize gathering intelligence on the situation in Toretsk. Use all available sources (satellite, drone, signals, human) to determine the exact areas of control and the status of both Ukrainian and Russian forces.

2. Investigate Russian POW Claims (High Priority): Analyze the video interview with the captured Russian soldier, Evgeniy Alexandrovich, to verify his claims and extract any valuable intelligence regarding recruitment practices, unit composition, leadership, and morale within Russian forces.

3. Verify Kursk Region Claims (High Priority): Attempt to independently verify the conflicting claims about fighting in the Kursk region. Use satellite imagery, signals intelligence, and other sources to assess the scale of Ukrainian losses and the extent of Russian advances.

4. Assess New Russian Drone Threat (High Priority): Gather intelligence on the reported "Italmas" drone, including its capabilities, deployment status, and potential impact on the battlefield. Develop countermeasures to mitigate this new threat.

5. Investigate Alleged Forced Mobilization (Medium Priority): Gather information on the alleged forced mobilization of the university lecturer in Lviv. Verify the claims and assess the potential impact on Ukrainian morale and public opinion.

6. Monitor Air Activity (High Priority): Given the confirmed air raid alerts and continued reports of air attacks, maintain a high level of vigilance and prioritize air defense capabilities.

7. All previous recommendations remain valid.