Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 03:38 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 03:08 UTC, February 9)
Drone Movements in Ukraine (Confirmed, Ongoing)
Ukrainian Air Force Reports (Confirmed): The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on drone movements:
Drones in the northern part of Zhytomyr region, heading west.
Drones in the northwestern part of Vinnytsia region, heading east.
Drones in the central and southern parts of Chernihiv region, heading west.
This indicates a continued, multi-pronged drone attack targeting various regions of Ukraine. The westward movement of drones in Zhytomyr and Chernihiv regions suggests a potential threat to western Ukraine.
Geopolitical Developments
US Diplomats' Absence at UN Meetings (Reported, Source: Russian Official): TASS reports that Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Office in Geneva, Gennady Gatilov, claims that US diplomats have been "invisible and inaudible" at UN meetings, citing "complete uncertainty and misunderstanding" within the US delegation following decisions by President Trump.
Assessment: This is a statement from a Russian official and should be viewed in that context. It likely reflects Russian attempts to exploit perceived divisions or uncertainties within the US administration. It may indicate a shift in US engagement with international organizations under the Trump administration.
Vance-Zelensky Meeting Confirmed (Confirmed): TASS confirms that Vice President Vance will meet with President Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference next week.
* Assessment: This confirms the planned meeting reported earlier, providing a crucial opportunity for direct communication between the US and Ukrainian leadership amidst the uncertainty surrounding the reported Trump-Putin communication and potential deal.
Death of Primorsky Krai Vice-Governor (Irrelevant): TASS reports on the return of the body of the deceased vice-governor of Primorsky Krai.
Assessment: This is not directly relevant to the military situation in Ukraine.
Overall Situation Assessment
The most significant new developments are:
Continued Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports confirm ongoing, multi-directional drone attacks, extending the threat to western Ukraine.
US Diplomatic Uncertainty: The reported absence of US diplomats at UN meetings, while a claim from a Russian source, raises concerns about potential shifts in US foreign policy and engagement with international organizations.
Confirmed Vance-Zelensky Meeting: The confirmation of the Vance-Zelensky meeting underscores the importance of direct US-Ukraine communication.
Updated Recommendations (in addition to previous recommendations)
Maintain High Alert for Drone Attacks, Extend to Western Ukraine (Extremely High Priority): Given the reported westward movement of drones, extend air defense and early warning systems to western Ukraine.
Monitor US Diplomatic Activity (High Priority):
Independently verify the claims of US diplomat absence at UN meetings.
Assess the implications of any shift in US engagement with international organizations on support for Ukraine.
Prepare for Vance-Zelensky Meeting (Extremely High Priority):
Develop a clear and concise agenda for the meeting, focusing on clarifying US policy, securing continued support, and addressing the potential deal reported by Russian sources.
Coordinate with other allies to present a united front.
Investigate Russian Airspace Closures (High Priority): Gather intelligence to determine the precise reason for the airspace restrictions. This could provide insights into Russian threat perceptions and potential military preparations.
Monitor Trump-Zelensky-Putin Developments (Extremely High Priority):
Independently verify the claims of Trump-Putin communication and any proposed deals.
Prepare for a potential shift in US policy, including the possibility of reduced or conditional support.
Communicate directly with the US administration and other allies to clarify the situation and advocate for continued support.
Prepare for potential pressure to accept a unfavorable deal.
Assess Potential Offensive Towards Toretsk/Kostiantynivka (High Priority):
Gather intelligence on Russian troop movements and deployments to confirm ISW's assessment.
Strengthen defenses in the Toretsk and Kostiantynivka areas.
Prepare contingency plans for a potential Russian offensive in this sector.
Leverage Naval Drone Capabilities (High Priority): Continue to develop and deploy naval drones, focusing on disrupting Russian naval operations in the Black Sea. Coordinate closely with the UK and other partners.
Address the Russian Advances (Medium Priority): Analyze the Russian advances near Zaporizhzhia, Zelenivka, and Andriivka.
Address TCC Abuses (Immediately and Publicly):
Immediately cease all violent and illegal conscription methods.
Publicly acknowledge the problem and hold perpetrators accountable.
Implement transparent and humane recruitment procedures.
Launch a public information campaign to rebuild trust.
Investigate and Address Internal Issues: Thoroughly investigate reports of misconduct at checkpoints, including the use of alcohol and drugs. Take disciplinary action as needed and improve training to ensure professionalism and adherence to regulations.
Strengthen Border Regions: Increase security measures, enforce regulations and protect civilian populations by strengthening border regions.
Utilize Technology: Analyze vehicular activity and population movements to improve logistics, resource allocation, and security protocols.
Gather Intelligence: Monitor for potential unrest or criminal activities in urban areas, and strengthen intelligence gathering.
The situation remains highly dynamic. The continued drone attacks, now extending to western Ukraine, represent the most immediate threat. The reported uncertainty in US diplomatic activity and the confirmed Vance-Zelensky meeting highlight the critical importance of navigating the evolving geopolitical landscape.
