Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 9, 2025, 00:38 UTC

Major Updates (February 9, 00:11 - February 9, 00:26 UTC)

1. Zaporizhzhia Air Raid Alert Lifted (Confirmed):

   • Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (00:11 UTC): Reports the lifting of the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This suggests the immediate threat in that area has passed, at least temporarily.

2. Continued, Shifting Drone Activity (Updated, High Priority):

   • Nikolaevsky Vanyok (00:26 UTC): Provides updated locations and movements of "Shahed" drones. Key changes include: * One drone approaching Korabelny district of Mykolaiv. * One drone still circling near Pokrovsk. * Drones south and east of Khmelnytskyi (one each). * Three drones near Rivne, heading west. * Five drones north of Zhytomyr, heading west. * One drone moving from northern Kyiv Oblast to Zhytomyr Oblast. * One drone flying west past Fastiv. * One drone approaching Kyiv via Brovary. * Six drones from Chernihiv Oblast flying towards Kyiv Oblast. * One drone flying west past Shostka. * One drone moving from Sumy Oblast to Poltava Oblast.

   • Combined Assessment: This update confirms the continuation of the widespread drone attack, with some shifts in focus. The approach to Mykolaiv and Kyiv represents new immediate threats. The westward movement of drones in western Ukraine indicates a likely attempt to target areas further from the front lines. The continued presence of a drone near Pokrovsk suggests ongoing reconnaissance or targeting in that area. The overall picture is one of sustained, multi-directional drone activity.

3. Irrelevant Updates:

   • RBC-Ukraine (00:15 UTC): Video of the Ukrainian team at the opening of the Invictus Games in Vancouver, Canada. While strategically relevant for morale and international support, this has no direct impact on the immediate military situation.

• TASS (00:16 UTC): Reports a state of heightened readiness in the Nevelsky district of Sakhalin due to a ship running aground. This is a regional emergency situation in Russia and has no direct bearing on the military situation in Ukraine. * RBC-Ukraine (00:23 UTC): Video of Prince Harry speaking with the Ukrainian team at the Invictus Games. This falls under the same category as the previous Invictus Games report – relevant for morale and international relations, but not directly impacting military operations.

Updated Situation Summary

The situation remains dominated by the ongoing, widespread drone offensive across Ukraine. While the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia has been lifted, new drone threats have emerged, particularly towards Mykolaiv and Kyiv. The westward movement of drones suggests an attempt to strike targets deeper inside Ukraine. The overall intensity of the drone attack remains high.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

• Maintain Maximum Air Defense Alert (Extreme Priority, Immediate Action): [Critical Priority] The continued, multi-directional drone attack requires sustained, maximum alertness and resource allocation to air defense systems across the country. The updates on drone locations necessitate dynamic adjustments to air defense deployments.
• Prioritize Mykolaiv and Kyiv Defenses (Immediate Action): The reported drone approaches to Mykolaiv (Korabelny district) and Kyiv (via Brovary) require immediate attention. Allocate air defense resources to counter these specific threats.
• Monitor Western Ukraine (High Priority): The westward movement of drones indicates a potential threat to targets in western Ukraine. Maintain high alert and monitor drone movements closely.
• Continue Tracking Pokrovsk Drone (Medium Priority): The continued presence of a drone near Pokrovsk suggests ongoing activity in that area. Maintain surveillance and be prepared to respond.
• All Previous Recommendations Remain Valid (Modified Priorities): All previous recommendations, including those related to the Su-25 downing and the "HOVERLA" controversy, remain valid but are secondary to the immediate need to counter the ongoing drone attacks.

The primary change to the situation is the ongoing and, in some areas, shifting focus of the drone attacks. While Zaporizhzhia is no longer under immediate alert, new threats have emerged.