Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 22:33 UTC

Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 22:06 - 22:33 UTC)

1. Kyiv Drone Threat Continues (Confirmed, Intensifying):

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: Reports that two drones previously reported near Brovary have passed, but four more are following the same trajectory. The threat to the capital remains "actual." This reinforces the ongoing and potentially escalating drone attack on Kyiv. The continued stream of drones indicates a sustained effort by Russia.

2. Volgograd Airport Restrictions (Confirmed, Drone Threat):

   • TASS: Reports temporary restrictions on the operation of Volgograd Airport for the safety of civilian aircraft.
   • RBK-Ukraine: Confirms the restrictions and states that the "Kover" (Carpet) plan is in effect, reportedly due to a drone attack threat. This is a significant development. The activation of the "Kover" plan, usually reserved for unidentified aerial objects or incursions, suggests a perceived serious threat to the airport and potentially surrounding areas.

3. Downed Russian Aircraft, Internal Criticism (Source: Pro-Ukrainian, Unverified):

   • Shef Hayabusa: Shares an image of a text message describing the downing of a Russian "Su" (likely Sukhoi) aircraft by Ukrainian forces (referred to derogatorily as "Banderovtsy"). The message details the pilot's ejection, a subsequent attack on the rescue team by an FPV drone, and the eventual evacuation of personnel. The message criticizes the Russian military leadership, specifically "Gerasim" (likely Valery Gerasimov), for prioritizing equipment over human lives. This report, while unverified, highlights several key points: the continued loss of Russian aircraft, the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drones, and potential internal dissent and morale issues within the Russian military. The criticism of Gerasimov is particularly noteworthy.

4. Hungary Opposes Ukraine Funding (Geopolitical):

• Colonelcassad: Reports that Hungarian Prime Minister Orban opposes funding Ukraine, claiming it's equivalent to looting Europe.
• This adds more context and a stronger position to Hungary's already known position, indicating their strong disagreement with the EU's strategies in the region.

5. Stranded Cargo Ship Near Sakhalin (Logistical, Low Relevance):
   • TASS: A foreign cargo ship ran aground near Sakhalin. No fuel spill has been reported. This has minimal direct impact on the military situation in Ukraine.

Updated Situation Summary

The imminent drone threat to Kyiv remains the most critical development, with continuous waves of drones approaching the capital. The activation of the "Kover" plan and flight restrictions at Volgograd Airport indicate a new and serious threat in that region, possibly from Ukrainian drones. The report of a downed Russian aircraft and internal criticism of military leadership, while unverified, suggests continued Russian losses and potential morale problems.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

• All Previous Recommendations Concerning Kyiv Remain Valid and at Extremely High Priority.

• Investigate Volgograd Situation (High Priority): Gather more information on the nature of the threat in Volgograd. Verify if the "Kover" plan was triggered by a confirmed drone attack or another threat. Assess potential targets and vulnerabilities in the region. Deploy air defenses as available.

• Analyze Internal Russian Criticism (Medium Priority): Further investigate the claims of internal criticism of the Russian military leadership. Assess the potential impact of this on morale, command structure, and operational effectiveness.

• Maintain high alert across all fronts.