Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 19:38 UTC
Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 19:08 - 19:38 UTC)
Tactical Shift in Kursk Region (Confirmed):
РБК-Україна: Reports a shift in Russian tactics in the Kursk region. Instead of primarily using armored vehicles, Russian forces are now deploying infantry-focused assaults. The 47th Brigade ("Magura") is reported to be repelling these attacks. This confirms a change in Russian operational approach, possibly due to previous losses of armored vehicles or a change in strategic objectives.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС: Provides video evidence of the fighting. Claims heavy Russian casualties (at least a company's worth) in a prolonged (16+ hour) infantry assault involving multiple waves. Claims the assault involved North Korean soldiers alongside Russian forces. Reports use of Bradleys and artillery (including cluster munitions) by Ukrainian forces. This reinforces the reported shift to infantry assaults and claims significant Russian losses. The claim of North Korean involvement requires further verification.
Два майора: States that the battles near the villages of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka are still continuing.
Drone Warfare Escalation (Kyiv, Confirmed):
КМВА (Kyiv City Military Administration): Issued an air raid alert for Kyiv due to the threat of enemy attack drones. Residents urged to seek shelter. This confirms an ongoing drone threat to the capital.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України: Drones were reported in the northern part of Kyiv region.
РБК-Україна: Confirmed an air raid alert in Kyiv and other regions due to the threat of drones. This confirms the ongoing threat and its broader geographic scope.
Moscow Fire Update (Confirmed):
ТАСС: Reports that 16 people, including a child, have sought medical assistance after the fire at the former Elektrozavod building in Moscow. This is a minor update, further increasing the number of affected individuals.
Further Claims of Equipment Destruction (Various Regions):
Colonelcassad: Shows a destroyed German ATF Dingo 2 armored vehicle near Pokrovsk, claiming it was destroyed by an FPV drone. This reinforces claims of successful Russian drone strikes against Western-supplied equipment.
Воин DV: Claims destruction of a BMP-2 near Zarechnoye using an FPV drone. This further reinforces the reported effectiveness of FPV drones in targeting armored vehicles.
Colonelcassad: Shows footage that appears to show a drone attack on a vehicle.
Операция Z: Claims their thermobaric weaponry is destroying Ukrainian forces.
New Ukrainian Missile (Report):
Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦: Provides images of the "Peklo" ("Hell") subsonic cruise missile. Claims that the missiles can be equipped with various turbojet engines, including one found after a recent attack in the Rostov region.
Fierce Fighting in Pokrovsk Direction (Report):
Военкор Котенок: Claims the opponent is trying to attack with armored vehicles, drones, and artillery.
Su-25 Downing (Toretsk):
РБК-Україна: Claims that a Ukrainian soldier from the 104th brigade, along with the 28th brigade, shot down a Russian Su-25 plane near Toretsk.
Updated Situation Summary
The most significant developments are the confirmed shift in Russian tactics in the Kursk region towards infantry-led assaults, and the ongoing drone threat to Kyiv. The situation around Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk is now more urgent, as is the situation in the Pokrovsk region. The reported Ukrainian advances in the Kursk region, while plausible given the shift to infantry assaults, still require urgent verification.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
All Previous Recommendations Remain Valid: Maintain high alert, verify claims, assess impacts, focus on key areas, reinforce defenses, review and adapt strategies, monitor specific regions, explore diplomatic avenues, address internal issues, and investigate specific claims. Prepare for escalation. Urgently verify conflicting claims (highest priority). Assess impacts of attacks. Re-evaluate situations. Focus on key areas. Prioritize air defense. Verify cooperation claims (high priority). Assess impacts of airstrikes (high priority). Monitor specific situations (medium priority). Focus intelligence gathering on key regions (high priority). Evaluate effectiveness of specific technologies (medium priority). Verify reports on arms exports (high priority). Maintain vigilance (medium priority). Urgently Verify Conflicting Casualty and Engagement Claims (Highest Priority). Assess Implications of Confirmed Engagements (High Priority). Investigate TOS-1A Usage (High Priority). Determine Origin of Makeevka Shelling (High Priority). Enhance Air Defense in Threatened Areas (Extremely High Priority). Assess Implications of Rostov-on-Don Attack (High Priority). Monitor Kursk Region Developments (High Priority). Evaluate Drone Warfare Tactics (Medium Priority). Assess and Respond to Kramatorsk Energy Infrastructure Damage (Extremely High Priority). Investigate and Respond to Makeevka Shelling (Extremely High Priority). Exploit Su-25 Downing (High Priority). Maintain Vigilance Against Air Attacks (High Priority). Assess and Respond to Makeevka Shelling (Ongoing, Extremely High Priority). Respond to the drone attack in Belgorod. Respond to the new Russian advance. Reinforce Defenses Around Toretsk and Kostiantynivka (Extremely High Priority). Counter Russian Advances in the Lyman Direction (High Priority). Address the Humanitarian Crisis. Address Draft Avoidance (Medium Priority). Exploit Drone Warfare Advantages (High Priority). Assess and Respond to General Staff Report (High Priority). Maintain Information War. Counter Russian Advances Near Kupyansk (High Priority). Investigate Reported Assassination Attempt (High Priority). Prioritize Counter-Drone Measures (Extremely High Priority). Verify Dvurichna-Zapadne claims. Verify Sudzha-Zazulyovka claims. Address the Humanitarian Crisis. Maintain Information War. Verify and Respond to Russian Claims in Kursk Region (Extremely High Priority). Investigate and Respond to the Kharkiv Explosion (High Priority). Assess and Respond to Reported Russian Advances in Kurakhove Direction (High Priority). Exploit Ukrainian Air Defense and Drone Successes (High Priority). Maintain Information War (Publicize all of the Russian losses, especially equipment, personnel, and vehicles). Verify Vyshneve Claims (Verify the claim of the Ukrainian Third Assault Brigade to have destroyed enemy equipment and personnel). Address Pokrovsk Spending. Maintain Information War. Verify Moscow Fire Cause (Low Priority). Prioritize Counter-Drone Measures (Zaporizhzhia and Kursk). Assess Impact of Equipment Delivery (Zaporizhzhia). Monitor Lyman Direction (High Priority). Investigate Conflicting Claims on Su-25 Downing (Extremely High Priority). Address Pokrovsk Spending. Evaluate effectiveness of newly obtained technologies. Exploit POW Information (High Priority). Prepare for Increased Russian Military Activity. Address the Humanitarian Crisis. Maintain Information War. Verify and Respond to Conflicting Claims Regarding Mi-8 (Extremely High Priority). Assess Impact of Improved Artillery Shell Ratio (High Priority). Exploit Drone Warfare Advantages (High Priority). Investigate Sribne Situation (High Priority). Prepare for Potential Impact of Genomic Registration (Low Priority). Address and respond to Nikopol attacks. Provide assistance to civilians and reinforce the protection of energy infrastructure in regions experiencing power outages. Address the Kyiv smoke incident. Investigate Baltic Sea Cable Damage (Extremely High Priority). Monitor Sumy Region (High Priority). Exploit Ukrainian Air Defense Successes (High Priority). Prepare for Increased Attacks on Russian Territory. Exploit claims of friendly fire. Assess IRIS-T SLS Deployment (High Priority). Maintain Information War (Publicize all of the Russian losses, especially equipment, personnel, and vehicles). Exploit Kurakhove video. Investigate potential friendly fire incidents. Verify Su-25 Downing (Extremely High Priority). Assess Impact of New Russian Tactics (Kursk Region, High Priority). Exploit Ukrainian Long-Range Weapon Development (High Priority). Urgently Verify Figolevka Claim (Kupyansk Direction, Extremely High Priority). Reinforce Kupyansk Defenses (Extremely High Priority). Maintain Air Defense Alert (Sumy and Chernihiv Regions, High Priority). Maintain Information War (Publicize all of the Russian losses, especially equipment, personnel, and vehicles). Exploit Kurakhove video. Investigate potential friendly fire incidents. Assess the Claim of Orekhovo-Vasilievka (Extremely High Priority).
Urgently Verify Ukrainian Claims in Kursk Region (Extremely High Priority). Monitor Syrian-Lebanese Border (High Priority). Investigate Baltic Sea Cable Damage (High Priority). Assess Ukrainian Laser Weapon Capabilities (Medium Priority). Maintain information war. Exploit Kurakhove video. Investigate potential friendly fire incidents. Assess implications of the destroyed boat.
Prioritize Air Defense in Kyiv (Extremely High Priority): Given the confirmed drone threat, air defense assets in and around Kyiv should be placed on the highest alert.
Assess Implications of Russian Tactical Shift (Kursk, High Priority): Evaluate the reasons behind Russia's shift to infantry-led assaults. Consider possible vulnerabilities and adjust Ukrainian defensive strategies accordingly. Verify claims of North Korean involvement.
Monitor Pokrovsk Direction (High Priority): Due to the presence of fierce fighting, monitor the area.
Further Investigate Ukrainian Long-Range Missile Capabilities (Medium Priority): Gather intelligence on the "Peklo" missile. Assess its range, accuracy, and potential impact on Russian military operations.
