Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 15:38 UTC
Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 15:08 - 15:38 UTC)
Kursk Region (Confirmed Ukrainian Attack and Russian Counterattack):
Operatsiya Z: Reports that the "Sever" group of forces repelled another Ukrainian counterattack in the Kursk region and is launching its own offensive. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirms this, stating that the "Sever" group inflicted casualties on Ukrainian forces (including tank, mechanized, and territorial defense brigades) near multiple settlements. The settlements listed include Gogolevka, Zaoleshenka, Kazachya Loknya, Kolmakov, Lebedevka, Malaya Loknya, Mirny, Nikolsky, Sverdlikovo, Sudzha, and Yuzhny. One Ukrainian counterattack was repelled.
Basurin o glavnom: Reports 58,550 Ukrainian casualties in the Kursk and Sumy regions since the beginning of combat operations. This source claims over 320 Ukrainian casualties in the past 24 hours. It also lists significant equipment losses, including tanks, IFVs (including a Bradley), armored personnel carriers, armored fighting vehicles, cars, artillery, mortars, MLRS (Grad and Uragan), a German "Pionierpanzer 2" engineering vehicle, and three UAV control points.
MoD Russia: Confirmed a Ukrainian serviceman who surrendered and shared information.
Voin DV: Shows footage, reportedly of the 155th Guards Marine Brigade, targeting enemy positions with drones in the Kursk region.
This confirms continued and intensified fighting in the Kursk region, with significant Russian claims of Ukrainian losses. The involvement of multiple Russian units suggests a coordinated effort. The reported Ukrainian counterattack confirms active Ukrainian resistance in the area.
Kupyansk Direction (Confirmed Russian Advances):
Slivochnyy Kapriz: Reports that Russian forces expanded their control zone on the west bank of the Oskol River near Dvurichna and Zapadne, occupying new positions near the R-79 highway. A map is provided.
This confirms further Russian advances in the Kupyansk direction, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses along the Oskol River.
Lyman Direction (Confirmed Fighting, Possible Russian Advance):
Colonelcassad, citing Rybar: Reports ongoing battles for Yampolivka on the Lyman direction, with Russian forces advancing along the left bank of the Zherebets River towards Torske. Reports indicate that Russian troops are present in Yampolivka and have been observed retreating from the southern part of the village, suggesting ongoing fighting within the settlement. The reports also mention fighting near Kolodezi, with Ukrainian attempts to dislodge Russian forces from their positions.
This confirms continued heavy fighting on the Lyman direction, with a possible Russian advance into Yampolivka. The reports suggest a dynamic and contested situation.
Kurakhove Direction (Claimed Russian Advance):
Dnevnik Desantnika: Claims that Russian forces have liberated Dachne in the Kurakhove direction, with ongoing clearing operations by the 102nd Regiment. It also claims the capture of a large Ukrainian strongpoint between Yantarne and Dachne by the 103rd Regiment.
This suggests a potential Russian breakthrough in the Kurakhove direction, though independent confirmation is needed.
Rybar: Reports that Ukrainian forces conducted a missile attack on Makeevka, DPR, with debris damaging a multi-story building and causing casualties. One civilian death and ten injuries (including two children) are reported.
TASS: The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, through Maria Zakharova, condemns the attack on Makeevka, accusing "Western curators" of complicity.
This confirms a Ukrainian attack on Makeevka resulting in civilian casualties and significant damage. The Russian condemnation and accusation against "Western curators" are part of an ongoing information warfare campaign.
Su-25 Downing and Helicopter Attack (Confirmed, Multiple Sources):
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok, Operativny ZSU, Butusov Plus, STERNENKO, ASTRA: Multiple sources confirm that the Ukrainian 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade shot down a Russian Su-25 near Toretsk. A Russian Mi-8 helicopter attempting to rescue the pilot was also attacked, and likely damaged, by Ukrainian FPV drones. Videos are provided.
Voenkor Kotenok: Confirms the downing of a Russian Su-25 near Shcherbinovka and provides video footage of the evacuation of the pilot, as well as footage of Ukrainian drones targeting a Mi-8.
TSAPLIENKO_UKRAINE FIGHTS: Shares a video of the Ukrainian FPV drone attack on the Russian Mi-8 helicopter.
This confirms significant Ukrainian air defense successes and highlights the increasing effectiveness of FPV drones in targeting both aircraft and rescue operations. The Russian acknowledgment of the incident further confirms the event.
Donetsk Region (Claimed Destruction of Russian Tanks):
TSAPLIENKO_UKRAINE FIGHTS: Provides video footage claiming to show the destruction of Russian tanks, BMPs, and "elite" crews near Vyshneve by the Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade.
This, if verified, would be a substantial victory for Ukrainian forces.
Zelenskyy on Occupied Territories (Confirmed, Expanded Context):
STERNENKO: Zelenskyy states that approximately 20% of Ukraine's mineral resources are located in territories currently occupied by Russia. He emphasizes the need to stop Putin and protect these resources, particularly mentioning titanium and uranium deposits in the Dnipropetrovsk region. He warns that Russia might exploit these resources or transfer them to North Korea or Iran.
RBK-Ukraine: Confirms that Russia could use Ukrainian resources for a new offensive if the war is frozen, claiming that Russia would use earnings from resources to rebuild its army and increase its attacks.
This highlights the economic stakes of the conflict and the potential long-term consequences of territorial losses. The warning about Russia exploiting or transferring resources adds a new dimension to the strategic importance of these territories.
Baltic States Disconnecting from Russian Power Grid (Confirmed):
RBK-Ukraine: Reports that the Prime Minister of Lithuania announced that Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have disconnected from the Russian-controlled power grid, taking a "significant step towards energy independence".
This signifies a major strategic shift, reducing the Baltic states' dependence on Russia and potentially increasing their energy security.
Kharkiv Explosion (Reported):
RBK-Ukraine: Local media reports an explosion in Kharkiv, likely outside the city.
This needs further verification and assessment to determine the cause and impact.
Updated Situation Summary
Intense Fighting Continues: Confirmed reports indicate intense fighting across multiple fronts, including the Kursk, Kupyansk, Lyman, and Kurakhove directions.
Russian Advances: Russian forces are making confirmed advances in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, and are claiming further progress in the Kurakhove direction.
Drone Warfare: The use of drones continues to be a major factor, with confirmed reports of successful strikes by both Russian and Ukrainian forces. Russia is reportedly deploying drones with advanced targeting capabilities, while Ukraine is effectively using FPV drones against aircraft and rescue operations.
Ukrainian Air Defense Successes: Ukrainian forces have confirmed the downing of a Russian Su-25 and the likely damage of a Mi-8 helicopter, demonstrating the continued effectiveness of their air defenses.
Civilian Casualties: Reports of civilian casualties in Makeevka underscore the ongoing threat to civilians in the conflict zone.
Geopolitical Developments: The Baltic states' disconnection from the Russian power grid marks a significant shift in regional energy dynamics.
Mariupol Exhibit: The display in Kryvyi Rih indicates Ukrainian remembrance of the fallen and a desire to inform the public.
Russian Military Topographer Day: Posts celebrating the day are used as a reminder of the importance of this function.
Information Warfare: The destruction of the SU-25 by the Ukrainian forces has been confirmed.
Mineral Resources: The war has disrupted the extraction of important resources from Ukrainian territory.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
All Previous Recommendations Remain Valid: Maintain high alert, verify claims, assess impacts, focus on key areas, reinforce defenses, review and adapt strategies, monitor specific regions, explore diplomatic avenues, address internal issues, and investigate specific claims. Prepare for escalation. Urgently verify conflicting claims (highest priority). Assess impacts of attacks. Re-evaluate situations. Focus on key areas. Prioritize air defense. Verify cooperation claims (high priority). Assess impacts of airstrikes (high priority). Monitor specific situations (medium priority). Focus intelligence gathering on key regions (high priority). Evaluate effectiveness of specific technologies (medium priority). Verify reports on arms exports (high priority). Maintain vigilance (medium priority). Urgently Verify Conflicting Casualty and Engagement Claims (Highest Priority). Assess Implications of Confirmed Engagements (High Priority). Investigate TOS-1A Usage (High Priority). Determine Origin of Makeevka Shelling (High Priority). Enhance Air Defense in Threatened Areas (Extremely High Priority). Assess Implications of Rostov-on-Don Attack (High Priority). Monitor Kursk Region Developments (High Priority). Evaluate Drone Warfare Tactics (Medium Priority). Assess and Respond to Kramatorsk Energy Infrastructure Damage (Extremely High Priority). Investigate and Respond to Makeevka Shelling (Extremely High Priority). Exploit Su-25 Downing (High Priority). Maintain Vigilance Against Air Attacks (High Priority). Assess and Respond to Makeevka Shelling (Ongoing, Extremely High Priority). Respond to the drone attack in Belgorod. Respond to the new Russian advance. Reinforce Defenses Around Toretsk and Kostiantynivka (Extremely High Priority). Counter Russian Advances in the Lyman Direction (High Priority). Address the Humanitarian Crisis. Address Draft Avoidance (Medium Priority). Exploit Drone Warfare Advantages (High Priority). Assess and Respond to General Staff Report (High Priority). Maintain Information War. Counter Russian Advances Near Kupyansk (High Priority). Investigate Reported Assassination Attempt (High Priority). Prioritize Counter-Drone Measures (Extremely High Priority). Verify Dvurichna-Zapadne claims. Verify Sudzha-Zazulyovka claims. Address the Humanitarian Crisis. Maintain Information War.
Verify and Respond to Russian Claims in Kursk Region (Extremely High Priority): Given the conflicting reports and significant Russian claims of Ukrainian losses, prioritize verifying the situation on the ground and deploying appropriate countermeasures.
Investigate and Respond to the Kharkiv Explosion (High Priority): Determine the cause and impact of the reported explosion in Kharkiv.
Assess and Respond to Reported Russian Advances in Kurakhove Direction (High Priority): Verify the claims of Russian advances and deploy reinforcements if necessary.
Exploit Ukrainian Air Defense and Drone Successes (High Priority): Publicize and leverage the successful downing of the Su-25 and the disruption of the rescue operation to boost morale and deter further Russian air operations.
Maintain Information War: Publicize all of the Russian losses, especially equipment, personnel, and vehicles.
Verify Vyshneve Claims: Verify the claim of the Ukrainian Third Assault Brigade to have destroyed enemy equipment and personnel.
