Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 07:30 UTC
Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 07:00 - 07:30 UTC)
Russian Counter-Drone Training (Video, Confirmed): Colonelcassad released video footage showing Russian forces training to counter drones using 12-gauge shotguns and fiber optic cables. A fundraising campaign is underway to provide 12-gauge ammunition and targets for this training, claiming effectiveness against drones with machine vision that are not susceptible to electronic warfare (EW). This confirms ongoing Russian efforts to adapt to the widespread use of drones and develop low-tech countermeasures.
Russian Advances near Chasiv Yar (Report, Confirmed): "Operatsiya Z" reports that Russian forces captured the "Stupki" and "Krinichki" tracts south of Chasiv Yar, advancing over 3.5 km wide and 1.5 km deep. They claim Russian forces are pressing towards the southern part of Chasiv Yar and Stupochki. Inside Chasiv Yar, they report ongoing fighting in the "Novoseverny" microdistrict and areas south of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant. This reinforces previous reports of Russian gains in the area and highlights specific locations of fighting.
Ukrainian Panic Over Trump's Demands (Report, Claimed): "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" claims Ukrainian channels are panicking over rumors of Trump's demands for repayment of aid, with Zelensky reportedly considering offering Ukrainian natural resources. This is likely part of Russian information operations and should be treated with caution.
Uragan MLRS Support in South Donetsk (Video, Confirmed): The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) released video showing Uragan Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) supporting motorized infantry units in the South Donetsk direction. A serviceman claims to be targeting manpower, lightly armored vehicles, and rear areas, asserting that the enemy is passive due to a lack of resources. This is likely part of Russian information operations, but confirms the use of Uragan MLRS in the South Donetsk direction. The soldier's mention of shortages may be a reflection of issues that the Russian side is experiencing.
Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) Fundraising (Video, Confirmed): "Dnevnik Desantnika" released a video showing VDV soldiers requesting donations for a UAZ "Bukhanka" (van) for logistics and medical evacuation. This confirms ongoing reliance on public donations to support Russian forces and suggests potential logistical challenges.
Ukrainian Fundraising (Video, Confirmed): RBK-Ukraine, along with volunteers, is continuing a fundraising campaign for field beds for several Ukrainian units, including the 109th, 143rd Brigades, and the 1st Separate Assault Battalion. This confirms ongoing reliance on public donations to support Ukrainian forces and suggests potential logistical challenges.
"Dva Mayora" Fundraising (Video, Confirmed): "Dva Mayora" is fundraising for UAV operators of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division, requesting Mavic 3T and Mavic 3 Pro drones, radios, laptops, and thermal imagers. This confirms ongoing reliance on public donations to support Russian forces and suggests potential equipment shortages.
Ukrainian Air Force Report (Confirmed): The Ukrainian Air Force reported shooting down 67 of 139 drones launched by Russia overnight, with 71 "lost on location" (decoys). The attacks originated from Kursk, Orel, Millerovo, Bryansk, and Shatalovo in Russia. Damage was reported in Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kyiv regions. This confirms a large-scale drone attack by Russia and significant Ukrainian air defense activity. The use of decoy drones is a notable tactic.
WarGonzo Frontline Report (Confirmed):
Zaporizhzhia Front: Positional battles, no significant changes.
Donetsk Front: Fighting near Dachne, Russian forces clearing captured territories. Claim of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) capture, opening the road to Konstantinovka and Chasiv Yar, and potentially freeing up forces for an assault on Pokrovsk.
Chasiv Yar Direction: Fighting in Chasiv Yar, with "tactical successes" for Russian forces.
Kursk Region: Fighting in the Sudzhansky district (Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Fanaseevka). Claims of Russian forces destroying Ukrainian forces, but also reports of continued Ukrainian reinforcement, suggesting a possible future offensive.
"Slivochny Kapriz" Report (Confirmed): Reports an average daily advance of 6.8 km² for Russian forces between February 3-6, with a total advance of +26.7 km².
Attempted Arson at FSB Building (Report, Confirmed): "Sever.Realii" reports a student attempted to set fire to the FSB building in St. Petersburg, allegedly under the direction of fraudsters. This adds to the growing number of arson attacks on official buildings in Russia.
Kharkiv Region Drone Threat (Confirmed): The Ukrainian Air Force reported a threat of drone attacks in the Kharkiv region.
OTU "Kharkiv" Video (Confirmed): Released video showing Ukrainian forces using improvised MLRS systems and observation posts. This confirms continued use of asymmetric warfare tactics by Ukrainian forces.
Captured Ukrainian Soldier Interview (Video, Claimed): Colonelcassad released a video of a captured Ukrainian soldier from the 54th Brigade, who claims he was misled into service and highlights communication problems and friendly fire incidents. This is likely part of Russian information operations, but provides potential insights into Ukrainian vulnerabilities.
Kherson Residential Strikes (Video, Confirmed): RBK-Ukraine released video showing damage to residential buildings in Kherson from morning strikes, with three wounded civilians, including an 11-year-old boy. This confirms continued Russian targeting of civilian areas.
Belgorod Car Accident (Report, Claimed): "Operativnyi ZSU" reports a car accident in Belgorod involving three Dagestani servicemen, resulting in the deaths of two paramedics. This requires further verification, but could indicate disciplinary issues within Russian forces.
Selidove Airstrike (Video, Claimed): STERNENKO reports an airstrike on the headquarters of the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in Selidove, Donetsk Oblast, claiming officer casualties. This requires further verification.
Updated Situation Summary
The military situation remains highly dynamic. Key developments include continued Russian advances in the Donetsk region (particularly near Chasiv Yar and the claimed capture of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk), ongoing intense fighting in the Kursk region, a large-scale Russian drone attack overnight, and continued reliance on public donations by both sides to support military operations. Russian forces are intensifying their efforts in counter-drone warfare, while both sides are using information operations to shape the narrative. The conflict continues to inflict damage on civilian infrastructure and populations.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
Maintain High Alert for Drone Attacks (All Regions): Unchanged.
Verify Volgograd Damage Reports (Independent Sources): Urgent, given conflicting reports.
Reinforce Drone Defenses: Unchanged, and given the high number of reported drone attacks, this remains a top priority.
Monitor Black Sea Naval Activity: Unchanged.
Verify Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk Claim (Critical): Unchanged. The claim from WarGonzo, if true, would be a major change in the situation.
Assess Impact of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Contingent on Verification): Unchanged.
Maintain Focus on Chasov Yar: Unchanged. The reported Russian advances in this area make this a critical area to monitor.
Review and Adapt Air Defense Strategies: Unchanged. The extensive use of guided bombs necessitates a review of air defense strategies and potential countermeasures.
Monitor Sudzhansky District (Kursk Region): Unchanged. Increased urgency given the confirmed intense fighting.
Maintain Humanitarian Aid in Russia: Unchanged.
Maintain Focus in Kozacha Lopan and South Donetsk: Unchanged.
Maintain Air Defense in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, and the border of Vinnytsia and Khmelnytskyi: Unchanged.
Diplomatic Efforts (Limited Options): Unchanged.
Re-evaluate the situation in 2 hours, or earlier if needed: Unchanged. Given the intensity of fighting and the number of significant developments, more frequent re-evaluations are warranted.
Analyze Strelkov's Assessment: Unchanged.
Verify and assess claims about attacks: Unchanged. This applies to both Ukrainian and Russian claims.
Assess Impact of Baltic Energy Shift (Long-Term): Unchanged.
Prioritize humanitarian support to areas affected by attacks: Unchanged. The extensive use of artillery and airstrikes makes this critical.
Verify the reported use of magnetic mines: Unchanged.
Analyze Russian Recruitment Efforts: Unchanged.
Verify the "Lull" in Kursk: While "Rybar" reports a lull, other recent reports show intense operations. Conflicting information makes this a priority for verification.
Analyze Ukrainian General Staff Maps (Critical): The newly released maps provide valuable information, but potential bias must be considered. Cross-reference with other intelligence sources to confirm territorial control and active conflict zones. This is a new and high-priority recommendation.
Assess Impact of Oil Infrastructure Attacks (Inside Russia): Determine the extent of damage and potential impact on Russian oil production and supply. This could have strategic implications for the war effort. This is a new and important recommendation.
Monitor Troop Rotations (Southern Ukraine): Analyze the reported troop rotations in the Huliaipol and Orikhiv directions to assess potential shifts in enemy strategy or preparations for future operations. This is a new recommendation based on the report from the Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine.
Analyze Ukrainian Claims of Enemy Losses: Unchanged.
Assess Impact of Reported City Takeover (Tsaplienko Ukraine Fights): Determine which city and the extent of damage and potential impact on Ukrainian strategies.
Exploit Ukrainian Drone Successes: Unchanged.
Assess Polish Arms Production Capacity: Unchanged.
Counter-Battery Fire Optimization (Kharkiv Region): Unchanged.
Monitor US-Russia Relations: Assess the situation.
Prioritize Counter-Drone Training (Russian Forces):[New Recommendation] Given the confirmed focus on training to counter drones with shotguns, assess the effectiveness of this tactic and develop countermeasures.
Investigate and Address Friendly Fire Incidents (Ukrainian Forces):[New Recommendation] The reported incidents of friendly fire due to communication issues require immediate investigation and corrective action.
Verify Claims of Russian Atrocities: Conduct a thorough analysis.
Address logistical challenges: Support.
Prioritize Security in Urban Areas (Kherson):[New Emphasis] Given the recent strikes, enhance security measures to protect civilians and critical infrastructure.
Verify Belgorod Car Accident Report:[New Recommendation] Investigate the reported incident involving Dagestani servicemen to confirm details and potential implications for discipline within Russian forces.
Verify the claim of Ukrainian Panic: Conduct a thorough investigation.
Verify Selidove Airstrike Claims:[New Recommendation] Gather intelligence to confirm or refute the reported airstrike on the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade headquarters and assess any potential casualties.
Exploit Russian Advances near Chasiv Yar (Contingent on Confirmation):[New Emphasis] If the reported advances are confirmed, consolidate control and prepare for further offensives.
Exploit Russian Advances in Dachne and Uspenivka: Analyze.
Prepare countermeasures in anticipation of strikes on logistics and infrastructure: Analyze.
