Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 06:30 UTC

Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 06:00 - 06:30 UTC)

1. Kursk Direction FPV Drone Strike (Video, Confirmed): "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" reports and provides video evidence of a successful Russian FPV drone strike against a Ukrainian buggy in the Kursk direction. The drone operator deliberately allowed the buggy to initially escape before engaging. This confirms ongoing, active drone warfare in the Kursk direction and reinforces Russian claims of targeting Ukrainian forces in this area. The deliberate delay before engagement suggests a possible tactic of following vehicles to identify potential locations of interest (bases, supply points). The video shows what could be a recon operation.

2. Kharkiv Region Map Updates (Multiple Sources): The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has released updated situation maps, including one highlighting the Vovchansk area in the Kharkiv region. The map shows red-shaded areas, likely indicating contested or enemy-controlled territory. This confirms ongoing conflict near Vovchansk and provides a visual representation of the contested areas.

3. Kursk Direction Map and Activity Updates (Multiple Sources): The General Staff maps, and videos show the Kursk area. In addition to drone warfare, intense fighting is reported. Ukrainian forces claim to have repelled 28 attacks, but Russian forces conducted 61 airstrikes, used 89 guided bombs, and fired 404 artillery rounds. This indicates very high intensity conflict on the Kursk front, with Russia employing significant air and artillery power. "Operativny ZSU" reports a record number of KABs (guided aerial bombs) dropped: 169 on Ukrainian territory and 89 on Kursk region (presumably targeting Ukrainian forces near the border). This reinforces the intensity of the air campaign and the strategic focus on this region.

4. Lyman, Siversky, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivskyi, Huliaipol, Orikhiv, and Prydniprovskyi Direction Map Updates (Source: General Staff): The General Staff released situation maps for numerous directions, indicating levels of conflict and, in some cases, territorial control. These maps highlight active conflict zones and potential enemy objectives. Key details:

   • Lyman: 13 enemy attacks near several settlements.
   • Siversky: 13 attacks near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske.
   • Kramatorsk: Three armed clashes near Chasiv Yar and Predtechine.
   • Toretsk: Ten enemy attacks, with a red area on the map likely indicating contested territory.
   • Pokrovsk: Ukrainian forces reportedly stopped 30 enemy assaults.
   • Novopavlivskyi: Enemy attacks towards Kostyantinopol, focus on Zelenivka.
   • Huliaipol, Orikhiv, and Prydniprovskyi: No assault actions reported. This implies a possible temporary lull in offensive operations in these specific areas, but not necessarily a reduction in overall threat.

5. Lancet Strike on M777 (Video, Confirmed Location): "Colonelcassad" reports and provides video evidence of a Russian Lancet drone strike destroying a Ukrainian M777 howitzer near Alekseevka. This confirms ongoing counter-battery warfare and the continued use of Lancet drones. The destruction of an M777 represents the loss of a Western-supplied artillery piece.

6. Drone Strike on Troops (Video, Confirmed): "Voin DV" reports and shows video of a drone strike targeting a concentration of Ukrainian troops in the Polozhskoe direction. This confirms continued use of drones to target personnel, highlighting the vulnerability of troop concentrations.

7. Southern Ukraine Situation Report (Source: Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine): The report describes a "stably tense" situation, with no signs of enemy offensive groupings forming. However, it details 261 artillery strikes, 354 FPV drone strikes, 200+ fragmentation munitions dropped, and airstrikes using guided bombs in Zaporizhzhia. Enemy troop rotations are reported in the Huliaipol and Orikhiv directions. This indicates sustained pressure and active conflict in the south, despite no major offensive preparations being detected. The high number of drone and artillery strikes is significant. The same source also reported Ukrainian strikes, claiming 31 enemy casualties, destruction of various equipment (mortars, vehicles, drones, communication antennas, a Starlink terminal), and 49 dugouts/shelters.

8. Russian Drone Attacks (Confirmed): Ukrainian accounts confirm drone strikes within Russia. The attacks targeted oil pumping stations in the Rostov and Volgograd regions. "Tsaplienko Ukraine Fights" reports on the attacks. Rostov station has confirmed damage; Volgograd has reported damage and no casualties. This signifies continued Ukrainian capability to strike targets inside Russia, potentially impacting oil infrastructure. The Russian claims of damage only need to be verified.

9. Ukraine Air Force Report: Ukrainian forces are reporting activity of the enemy in the air on the eastern front, with warnings of the use of weapons.

10. "Tsaplienko Ukraine Fights" Reported City Takeover: Reports are coming in that almost all of the unnamed city center has fallen to the Russian invaders.

Updated Situation Summary

The military situation is characterized by extremely intense fighting along multiple fronts, particularly in the Kursk and Kharkiv directions. Russian forces are employing significant air and artillery power, including a record number of guided aerial bombs. Drone warfare continues to be a major factor, with both sides using drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks. Ukrainian forces are claiming successes in repelling attacks and inflicting casualties, but the overall pressure remains high. The confirmed strikes inside Russia on oil infrastructure demonstrate a continued capability to target strategic assets. The release of numerous situation maps by the Ukrainian General Staff provides valuable, though potentially biased, insight into the locations of active conflict and potential enemy objectives.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

• Maintain High Alert for Drone Attacks (All Regions): Unchanged.
• Verify Volgograd Damage Reports (Independent Sources): Urgent, given conflicting reports.
• Reinforce Drone Defenses: Unchanged, and given the high number of reported drone attacks, this remains a top priority.
• Monitor Black Sea Naval Activity: Unchanged.
• Verify Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk Claim (Critical): Unchanged.
• Assess Impact of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Contingent on Verification): Unchanged.
• Maintain Focus on Chasov Yar: Unchanged.
• Review and Adapt Air Defense Strategies: Unchanged. The extensive use of guided bombs necessitates a review of air defense strategies and potential countermeasures.
• Monitor Sudzhansky District (Kursk Region): Unchanged. Increased urgency given the confirmed intense fighting.
• Maintain Humanitarian Aid in Russia: Unchanged.
• Maintain Focus in Kozacha Lopan and South Donetsk: Unchanged.
• Maintain Air Defense in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, and the border of Vinnytsia and Khmelnytskyi: Unchanged.
• Diplomatic Efforts (Limited Options): Unchanged.
• Re-evaluate the situation in 2 hours, or earlier if needed: Unchanged. Given the intensity of fighting and the number of significant developments, more frequent re-evaluations are warranted.
• Analyze Strelkov's Assessment: Unchanged.
• Verify and assess claims about attacks: Unchanged. This applies to both Ukrainian and Russian claims.
• Assess Impact of Baltic Energy Shift (Long-Term): Unchanged.
• Prioritize humanitarian support to areas affected by attacks: Unchanged. The extensive use of artillery and airstrikes makes this critical.
• Verify the reported use of magnetic mines: Unchanged.
• Analyze Russian Recruitment Efforts: Unchanged.
• Verify the "Lull" in Kursk: While "Rybar" reports a lull, other recent reports show intense operations. Conflicting information makes this a priority for verification.
• Analyze Ukrainian General Staff Maps (Critical): The newly released maps provide valuable information, but potential bias must be considered. Cross-reference with other intelligence sources to confirm territorial control and active conflict zones. This is a new and high-priority recommendation.
• Assess Impact of Oil Infrastructure Attacks (Inside Russia): Determine the extent of damage and potential impact on Russian oil production and supply. This could have strategic implications for the war effort. This is a new and important recommendation.
• Monitor Troop Rotations (Southern Ukraine): Analyze the reported troop rotations in the Huliaipol and Orikhiv directions to assess potential shifts in enemy strategy or preparations for future operations. This is a new recommendation based on the report from the Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine.
• Analyze Ukrainian Claims of Enemy Losses: Unchanged.
• Assess Impact of Reported City Takeover (Tsaplienko Ukraine Fights): Determine which city and the extent of damage and potential impact on Ukrainian strategies.