Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 05:00 UTC

Major Updates (February 8, 2025, 04:30 - 05:00 UTC)

The new messages provide the following updates, building upon the previous analysis:

1. US Arms Sale to Israel (Confirmed): The US State Department has informed Congress of a planned $7.4 billion arms sale to Israel, including Hellfire missiles, bombs, guidance systems, and detonators. This is a significant development in the Middle East, but does not directly impact the military situation in Ukraine. It may indirectly affect global arms markets and US resource allocation.

2. Chasov Yar Activity (Confirmed):

   • A Russian "Grad" from the 1065th Guards Artillery Regiment reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian strongpoint in Chasov Yar.
   • A sniper pair from the 299th Regiment, 98th Airborne Division, reportedly eliminated a "Baba Yaga" drone near Chasov Yar.
   • A reconnaissance scout from the 215th ORB, 98th Airborne Division, used an FPV kamikaze drone to strike a Ukrainian position in a high-rise building in Chasov Yar. These reports, coming from a pro-Russian source, indicate continued intense fighting in and around Chasov Yar, with a focus on Russian artillery and drone operations.

3. Russian Trench Attack (Confirmed): Video footage shows a Russian strike on a Ukrainian trench, likely with a drone-dropped munition or precision artillery. This reinforces the ongoing use of precision targeting and anti-personnel operations by Russian forces.

4. Volgograd Oil Refinery Attack (Confirmed, Details Differ):

   • The Governor of Volgograd Oblast, Andrey Bocharov, confirmed an attack on an oil refinery by Ukrainian drones. He claims no damage or casualties.
   • Ukrainian sources ("RBC-Ukraine") report the attack on an oil refinery in the Kumylzhensky district of Volgograd Oblast, also claiming no fire, damage, or casualties. There is agreement on the attack, but differing details about the location ("oil pumping station" vs. "oil refinery") and the extent of damage (potentially none). This requires further verification.

5. Igor Strelkov's Assessment (Reported): A fragment of a letter from Igor Strelkov (Girkin) dated February 5, 2025, expresses a pessimistic view of the situation. He believes:

   • Current Russian offensive actions are unlikely to lead to victory and are causing near-irreparable losses.
   • There is widespread "demobilization of public sentiment" and a lack of hope for a successful conclusion to the conflict.
   • Expectations for a peace deal mediated by Trump are unrealistic.
   • NATO forces may enter Ukraine this year, and Turkey may openly side with Ukraine.
   • Russia may be pressured into a near-capitulation agreement.
   • A "Marengo" (implying a decisive victory like Napoleon's) is still possible, but the current leadership is incapable of achieving it. Strelkov's assessment, coming from a critical perspective, highlights significant concerns about the long-term prospects for Russia in the conflict.

6. Damage Reported in Rostov (Confirmed): Ukrainian channel "Operativny ZSU" claims 14 apartment buildings were damaged in Rostov due to "Putin's armed aggression." The same message reports damage to oil processing facilities. The information combines claims of successful attacks with damage done in Russia.

7. Commemorations (Irrelevant to Military Situation):

   • Russian channels commemorate the anniversary of Dmitry Mendeleev's birth.
   • "WarGonzo" commemorates the anniversary of the death of "Givi" (Mikhail Tolstykh), a former commander of the "Somali" battalion in the Donetsk People's Republic.

Updated Situation Summary

The military situation remains characterized by intense fighting, particularly around Chasov Yar, and continued Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russia. While there is agreement on a drone attack on a Volgograd oil facility, the extent of the damage is disputed. The US arms sale to Israel is a significant geopolitical development, but its direct impact on Ukraine is limited. Igor Strelkov's pessimistic assessment highlights significant concerns about Russia's long-term prospects in the conflict. The reports of damage in Russia and to the oil processing facilities is a mix of information and propaganda.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

• Maintain High Alert for Drone Attacks (All Regions): Unchanged.
• Verify Volgograd Damage Reports (Independent Sources): Focus on confirming the extent of damage to the Volgograd oil facility. Discrepancies between Russian and Ukrainian reports require clarification. This is crucial for assessing the impact on Russian fuel supplies and logistics.
• Reinforce Drone Defenses: Unchanged.
• Monitor Black Sea Naval Activity: Unchanged.
• Verify Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk Claim (Critical): Unchanged.
• Assess Impact of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Contingent on Verification): Unchanged.
• Maintain Focus on Chasov Yar: Given the reported intensity of fighting in this area, prioritize intelligence gathering and resource allocation to counter Russian operations around Chasov Yar. This area is now a confirmed major focal point of the conflict.
• Review and Adapt Air Defense Strategies: Unchanged.
• Monitor Sudzhansky District (Kursk Region): Unchanged.
• Maintain Humanitarian Aid in Russia: Unchanged
• Maintain Focus in Kozacha Lopan and South Donetsk: Unchanged.
• Maintain Air Defense in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, and the border of Vinnytsia and Khmelnytskyi. Unchanged.
• Diplomatic Efforts (Limited Options): Unchanged.
• Re-evaluate the situation in 2 hours, or earlier if needed.
• Analyze Strelkov's Assessment: While Strelkov's views are critical and potentially biased, his assessment of potential NATO involvement and Turkish actions warrants careful consideration. Develop contingency plans for these scenarios.
• Verify and assess claims about attacks: Use independent sources to verify the claims about successful attacks.