Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 8, 2025, 00:55 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 00:30 UTC, February 8, 2025)

Kupyansk Direction: Russian Offensive Actions, Destruction of Ukrainian Assets (Confirmed)

• Russian Forces Destroy Ukrainian Positions and Starlink Terminal (Confirmed): "Colonelcassad" (00:35:08 UTC) reports, with video, that the reconnaissance unit of the 26th Regiment is destroying Ukrainian shelters and a Starlink terminal in the Kupyansk direction. This represents a tactical success for Russian forces, disrupting Ukrainian communications and logistics in a key frontline area. The destruction of the Starlink terminal is particularly significant as it hinders Ukrainian access to satellite internet, crucial for command and control.

Targeted Strikes: Successful Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command (Confirmed)

• Ukrainian Drone Strike Eliminates Russian Officers (Confirmed): "Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights" (00:40:17 UTC) posts a video of the previously reported strike on the headquarters of the Russian 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade, resulting in the death of many commanding officers. The drone used for targeting and recording was operated by a female soldier with the callsign "Ultra," using a "Shark" UAV. This confirms a significant Ukrainian success in targeting high-value Russian assets. The use of a female drone operator and the "Shark" UAV highlights the evolving capabilities and diversity of Ukrainian forces.

Geopolitical Developments: Resource Control, Diplomatic Maneuvering (Confirmed)

• Zelenskyy on Resource Control and Negotiations (Confirmed): "Operation Z: War Correspondents of the Russian Spring" (00:43:21 UTC) reports on Zelenskyy's interview with Reuters, where he discusses the joint development of Ukrainian resources, emphasizing that Russia controls approximately 50% of Ukrainian rare earth element deposits. Zelenskyy also mentions potential discussions with Trump on security guarantees and the use of Ukrainian gas storage for American liquefied gas.
  • This reveals Ukraine's strategy of leveraging its resources for international support and negotiations. It also highlights the strategic importance of the territories currently under Russian control, particularly regarding rare earth elements.
• UK Foreign Minister Warns US Against Cutting USAID (Confirmed): "TASS" (00:44:46 UTC) reports that the UK Foreign Minister warned the US against curtailing USAID's work, citing a similar mistake made by the UK in 2020. This highlights concerns within the Western alliance about potential reductions in aid and support for Ukraine, which could have significant consequences for the conflict.

Air Threat: Increased Russian Aviation Activity, Continued Drone Threat (Confirmed)

• Activity of Russian tactical aviation in the eastern direction. There is a threat of the use of aerial means of attack.

• Continued Drone Activity (Confirmed, Reduced Numbers): Nikolaevsky Vanyok reports: Two drones heading toward Starokonstantinov, One north of Kiev, and one is located in the north of the Chernihiv region, heading to the swamps. This confirms that a small number of drones are still active.

• Drone Approaching Starokostiantyniv (Confirmed): "Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" (00:53:55 UTC) reports a drone approaching Starokostiantyniv from the southeast. This corroborates earlier reports and indicates a continued threat to the Starokostiantyniv area, likely targeting the military airfield.

Overall Military Situation: Ukrainian Defense Under Pressure (Confirmed)

• Ukrainian Defense "Cracking" (Confirmed): "TASS" (00:55:25 UTC) reports that The Washington Post claims the Ukrainian defense is "cracking" due to exhausting combat operations and a shortage of personnel. This provides external validation of the increasing pressure on Ukrainian forces, highlighting critical vulnerabilities in manpower and sustainment.

Updated Situation Assessment

The situation continues to evolve with these key updates:

1. Kupyansk Tactical Situation (Deteriorating for Ukraine): The confirmed destruction of Ukrainian positions and a Starlink terminal in the Kupyansk direction demonstrates ongoing Russian pressure and success in disrupting Ukrainian capabilities.
2. Successful Ukrainian Targeting (High Impact): The confirmed elimination of Russian commanding officers in a targeted strike represents a significant blow to Russian forces and a morale boost for Ukraine.
3. Resource Control as a Key Strategic Factor: Zelenskyy's statements highlight the importance of resource control in the conflict, both as a point of leverage and a strategic objective.
4. Concerns about Western Support: The UK's warning to the US underscores anxieties within the Western alliance about potential reductions in aid, which could weaken Ukraine's position.
5. Continued, But Diminished Drone Threat: The drone threat persists, particularly around Starokostiantyniv, but appears to have decreased in intensity compared to earlier reports.
6. Growing Pressure on the Ukrainian Defense.

Updated Recommendations

• All Recommendations Remain in Effect: Recommendations from previous updates remain relevant.
• Exploit Kupyansk Vulnerabilities (High Priority): Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in the Kupyansk direction, focusing on restoring communications and mitigating the impact of the loss of the Starlink terminal. Consider deploying additional counter-drone capabilities and electronic warfare systems.
• Capitalize on Targeting Success (High Priority): Leverage the successful targeting of the Russian command structure to disrupt further Russian operations and exploit any resulting confusion or disarray.
• Strengthen Resource Defenses (Medium Priority): Prioritize the defense of strategically important resource areas, particularly those containing rare earth elements. Develop plans to prevent further Russian advances into these regions.
• Secure Continued Western Support (High Priority): Engage in active diplomatic efforts to ensure continued and robust Western military and financial assistance. Address concerns about potential aid reductions and emphasize the strategic importance of supporting Ukraine.
• Maintain Air Defense Readiness (High Priority): Continue to monitor and counter the remaining drone threat, particularly around Starokostiantyniv. Be prepared for potential airstrikes from Russian tactical aviation.
• Address Manpower and Sustainment Issues (Critical Priority): Implement measures to address the reported shortages in personnel and sustainment affecting the Ukrainian defense. This may involve mobilization efforts, improved logistics, and accelerated training programs.
• Information Warfare Counteroffensive (Medium Priority): Counter Russian narratives about the "cracking" of Ukrainian defenses. Highlight Ukrainian successes and resilience to maintain morale and international support.
• Continue Information Operations: Maintain and continue emphasising damage to Russian territories.