Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 13:30 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 13:02 UTC, February 7, 2025)

Military Operations

• Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Donetsk Region): [Major Development - Conflicting Reports] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has officially declared the capture of Dzerzhinsk (also known as Toretsk). Multiple pro-Russian sources (Voenkor Kotenok, Dnevnik Desantnika, Operatsiya Z, Poddubny, Mash na Donbasse, Colonelcassad, WarGonzo) corroborate this claim, naming the 1st, 9th, and 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Army, and the "Veterans" volunteer formation, as the units involved. However, the "Rybar" Telegram channel, while acknowledging Russian advances in the area, states that Ukrainian forces likely still maintain positions on the outskirts of Druzhba, a settlement within the larger Toretsk area. Rybar also highlights the ongoing confusion due to the renaming of settlements in the region. This conflicting information necessitates a cautious assessment. The claim of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk's capture represents a potentially significant Russian advance, but requires independent verification. Images of maps are used to display the strategic position.
• Danube River (Strike on Ukrainian Border Guard Positions): [High Priority] (Maintain previous analysis).
• Chuhuiv (Kharkiv Region) Factory Fire Confirmed: [High Priority] (Maintain previous analysis).
• Kursk Region (Alleged Russian Advance): [Verification Needed] (Maintain previous analysis).
• Vozdvyzhenka Area (Reported POW Capture): [Verification Needed] (Maintain previous analysis).
• South Donetsk Direction (Reported Capture of UK Mastiff): (Maintain previous analysis).
• Pokrovsk Direction (Leopard Tank Destroyed): [New] (Maintain previous analysis.) Russian forces report destroying a German tank, and Ukrainian vehicles and personell. Video evidence presented.
• Kurakhove, Donetsk Region: Ukrainian forces report destroying Russian artillery.
• Konstantinovka Russian forces report striking a substation.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Drone Activity (Updated Movements): The Ukrainian Air Force reported:

  • Eastern direction: Activity of enemy tactical aviation. Threat of the use of aviation weapons for front-line regions.

• Ukrainian Drone Operations: A Ukrainian drone unit (Presidential Brigade) reported using drones to track and target Russian infantry attempting to infiltrate and prepare for an assault. Video evidence provided.

• Russian Drone Operations: Russian forces report destroying another "Marder" using drones.

Geopolitical Developments

• UAE Mediation (Prisoner Exchanges): [New] (Maintain previous analysis.)
• Zelenskyy on US Aid: (Maintain previous analysis.)
• Ukraine-USA: (Maintain previous analysis.)
• Munich Security Conference: (Maintain previous analysis.)
• Germany: (Maintain previous analysis.)
• France-Russia: French Ministry of Foreign Affairs will review the procedure of accreditation of Russian journalists.

Disinformation and Propaganda

• "Oreshnik" Missile Report Disputed: [New] (Maintain previous analysis.)
• Russia-Azerbaijan relations: Claims Russia would remove citizens of Azerbaijan.
• Propaganda: A video claims that a former Wagner member was arrested for killing a person and injuring two others.
• Propaganda: A video claims that the 225th Assault Battalion was holding positions "on the territory of the nuclear aggressor" for six months.
• Donbass: A pharmacy is closing down due to increased rent.

Internal Russian Issues

• Moscow: (Maintain previous analysis).
• Kaliningrad: Putin is holding meetings discussing making the region sustainable.

Ukrainian Military Actions & Claims

• 225th Assault Battalion Reorganized: (Maintain previous analysis).
• Ukrainian Military: Reports of hacking attempts by Russian forces.
• Ukraine: Offers to create a humantarian corridor in the Russian region of Kursk, to evacuate any Russian citizen.

Tunnel Networks

• Ugledar: (Maintain previous analysis).

Updated Situation Assessment

The key updates are:

1. Claimed Capture of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Donetsk Region): [Highest Priority] The Russian MoD's declaration of capturing Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk, if confirmed, represents a significant Russian advance. The conflicting report from Rybar, suggesting continued Ukrainian presence on the outskirts of Druzhba, introduces uncertainty and highlights the need for independent verification. This could indicate a gradual Russian advance, rather than a complete and immediate takeover of the entire area.
2. Continued Drone Warfare: Reports of drone activity and drone related damage remain.

Updated Recommendations

1. Verify Status of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk: [Highest Priority] Utilize all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, signal intelligence, human intelligence) to:
   • Confirm the extent of Russian control over Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk.
   • Determine the presence and location of any remaining Ukrainian forces in the area, particularly around Druzhba.
   • Assess the potential for Ukrainian counterattacks.
2. Investigate Chuhuiv Factory Fire (Kharkiv Region): [Highest Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
3. Assess Impact of Danube Strike: [Highest Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
4. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities Across All Fronts: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
5. Monitor Russia-Azerbaijan Relations: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
6. Maintain Focus on Internal Russian Issues: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
7. Verify Reports of Ukrainian Losses (Kursk Region): [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
8. Verify Reports of Russian Advances and Captures: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
9. Disinformation: (Maintain previous recommendation).
10. Maintain All Previous Recommendations: The remaining recommendations from previous analyses remain valid.

The claimed capture of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk by Russian forces, while disputed in terms of its completeness, represents a potentially significant development that could shift the balance of power in the region if confirmed. Continued drone warfare reports highlight this aspect of the war. The ongoing information war and the need for independent verification of all claims remain critical considerations.