Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 07:00 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 06:30 UTC, February 7)

Military Operations

• Kursk Region (Continued Ukrainian Activity, Confirmed): [New Information] Voenkor Kotenok reports that throughout the night, Ukrainian forces continued to transfer personnel and equipment, including heavy equipment, from the Sumy region towards Sudzha. New attempts at breakthroughs are considered likely in the near future, as Ukrainian command seeks a demonstrative offensive "picture." This confirms earlier reports of ongoing Ukrainian activity in the area and suggests a buildup of forces for a potential renewed offensive. "Dva Mayora" reports that three killed Ukrainian soldiers from the failed incursion were discovered this morning.
• Kharkiv Region (Airstrike Threat, Confirmed): [New Information] The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity by Russian tactical aviation in the northeastern direction, with a threat of using air-launched weapons in frontline areas.
• Southern Front (Artillery and Drone Strikes, Confirmed): [New Information] The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report continued Russian fire on positions and frontline settlements in Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kherson regions. Over the past day, almost 280 artillery strikes were recorded. The enemy also conducted 440 FPV drone strikes and dropped over 200 fragmentation munitions. Airstrikes with guided bombs and unguided rockets targeted settlements in Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces are attempting to rotate personnel closer to the line of contact in the Huliaipilske and Orikhiv directions, and are conducting engineering and aerial reconnaissance. Ukrainian forces report destroying 49 Russian personnel, a TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric launcher, an ARK-1 "Rys" artillery radar, 4 artillery systems, 4 mortars, 18 vehicles, 5 Shahed-136 drones, 4 reconnaissance drones, a quad bike, motorcycles, 4 boats, 7 drone control antennas, 2 communication antennas, 4 Starlink terminals and 2 antennas for them, and 5 generators. 33 dugouts/shelters, 5 observation posts, a drone launch site, and an ammunition supply point were also destroyed.
• Kherson Region (Shelling, Confirmed): [New Information] One person was killed and five were injured due to Russian shelling in the Kherson region. Two high-rise buildings and six private houses were damaged.

Russian Internal Developments

• FSB Detentions (Arrests Confirmed): [New Information] The FSB confirmed the arrest of the women in Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh who were accused of preparing terrorist attacks. The women who planned a terror attack in Rostov-on-Don have been arrested.
• Syrian Bases (Possible Continuation, Reported): [New Information] The head of the Defense Ministry of the Syrian transitional government reportedly stated that Syria will maintain Russian military bases on its territory if it benefits Damascus. This contradicts earlier reports of potential Turkish bases and introduces further uncertainty into the regional power dynamics.
• Traffic Jam (Irkutsk): Truck drivers are stuck.

Information Operations

• Recruitment: There is a recruitment in Ukraine.
• Loss of life: Ukraine mourns the loss of life.
• Propaganda: Ukrainian forces show the capture of soldiers in the 155th brigade.

Overall Situation Assessment (Changes Highlighted)

The most significant developments are:

1. Anticipated Ukrainian Offensive (Kursk Region): [Increased Threat] The reported buildup of Ukrainian forces and the stated goal of a demonstrative offensive significantly raise the risk of renewed fighting in the Kursk region.
2. Continued Aerial Threats (Kharkiv Region): [New Threat] The reported activity of Russian tactical aviation poses an immediate threat to frontline areas in the Kharkiv region.
3. Sustained Strikes and Rotations (Southern Front): [Detailed Confirmation] The detailed report from the Southern Defense Forces confirms the ongoing intensity of Russian artillery and drone attacks, as well as efforts to rotate troops closer to the front line. The destruction of the TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric launcher is a notable operational success for Ukrainian forces.
4. Arrests and Regional Instability: [Confirmed and New Developments] The confirmation of arrests of alleged Ukrainian agents and the conflicting reports about potential military bases in Syria highlight the ongoing instability and potential for escalation in the broader region.
5. Power Outages (Expanded Scope): [New Information] Emergency power outages have been expanded to Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, and parts of Cherkasy regions, indicating further strain on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. "Ukrenergo" attributes these outages to Russian missile and drone attacks on power generation and transmission facilities.
6. Continued Sanctions (Confirmed): The US is tightening sanctions.
7. Troop Casualties (Reported): Ukrainian troops were eliminated.
8. Drone Testing (China): China has tested drones.
9. Diplomatic Contact: Ukraine continues to engage in diplomatic relations with the US.
10. Propaganda: Ukraine is conducting propaganda to demonize Russia, with the office of a German company vandalized.
11. Military Strength: Russian troops claim that they are superior, and Ukraine lacks personnel.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

1. Prepare for Renewed Offensive (Kursk Region): [Urgent Priority] Given the reported buildup of Ukrainian forces and the stated intent for a demonstrative offensive, prioritize strengthening defenses and preparing for a potential breakthrough attempt. Deploy additional reconnaissance assets to monitor troop movements and identify potential attack vectors.
2. Counter Airstrike Threat (Kharkiv Region): [Immediate Priority] Increase air defense readiness in the Kharkiv region to counter the reported threat of Russian airstrikes. Coordinate with frontline units to ensure adequate warning and protection.
3. Exploit Operational Successes (Southern Front): [Maintain Priority] Continue to target Russian artillery, drone launch sites, and command and control nodes. Prioritize the destruction of high-value targets like the TOS-1A launcher.
4. Secure Energy Infrastructure (Multiple Regions): [Increased Priority] Enhance the protection of energy infrastructure in regions experiencing power outages. Prioritize repairs and consider deploying mobile power generation units to mitigate the impact on civilians and military operations.
5. Monitor for Potential Incursions: Pay attention.
6. Address Strikes: Support affected areas.
7. Verify the Claims: Gather intelligence.
8. Address Logistics: The disruption needs to be fixed.

The remaining recommendations from the 06:30 UTC analysis remain valid and should be implemented in conjunction with these updated priorities.