Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 06:00 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 05:30 UTC, February 7)

Military Operations

• Nikopolshchyna (Dnipropetrovsk Region) (Artillery and Drone Strikes, Confirmed): Myrivska community was shelled with heavy artillery. A kamikaze drone struck the district center. Infrastructure was damaged. Nikopol was also hit in the morning. Consequences are being clarified. Air defense units shot down two drones in the region. This reiterates the previous report and adds that the consequences of the morning strikes are still being assessed, but confirms air defense activity.

• Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Extensive Strikes, Confirmed): Russian forces launched 339 strikes across 14 settlements.

  • Two airstrikes on Hulyaipole.
  • 157 UAV attacks on various settlements, including Znachkove, Lobkove, Pyatykhatky, Hulyaipole, Shcherbaky, Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Bilohirya, Luhivske, Malynivka, Novodarivka, and Olhivske.
  • 7 MLRS strikes on Hulyaipole, Shcherbaky, Novoandriivka, and Mala Tokmachka.
  • 173 artillery strikes on Stepnohirsk, Lobkove, Pyatykhatky, Hulyaipole, Shcherbaky, Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Bilohirya, Luhivske, Malynivka, Novodarivka, and Olhivske.
  • 14 reports of damage to apartments, houses, and vehicles. No civilian casualties reported. This represents a major increase in Russian activity in the Zaporizhzhia region and highlights the widespread use of drones and artillery.

Geopolitical Developments

• Trump's Potential Sanctions: Keith Kellog stated that Trump is ready to tighten sanctions against the Russian oil sector to "end" the conflict in Ukraine. He also stated that the conflict will not end without negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv. This reinforces continued engagement, although the details of the discussion are not yet public.
• Barents Observer Declared Undesirable: The Russian Prosecutor General's Office declared the Norwegian non-governmental organization The Independent Barents Observer AS (TIBO AS) undesirable in Russia. This action likely represents an attempt to suppress independent reporting on the region.
• Politico's Response to Funding Allegations: Politico's leadership denied claims that it was funded by the US government, as alleged by Trump.
• Potential Changes to Russian Holidays: The Russian State Duma proposed making Easter and Holy Trinity Day official holidays, with an additional day off on the following Monday. This could have social and economic implications.

Russian Internal Developments

• FSB Detentions (Expanded Details, Confirmed): Four women were detained in Russia and occupied Crimea, accused of working for Ukrainian special services.
  • Two were detained in Rostov-on-Don, accused of planning to detonate a car belonging to a "civil servant." They allegedly obtained bomb components through online marketplaces and dead drops.
  • One was detained in Sevastopol, accused of targeting a serviceman from the BARS battalion. She allegedly trained in Ukraine for sabotage and surveillance.
  • One was detained in Voronezh, accused of planning a terrorist act against a high-ranking military officer. This adds further detail to previous reports and suggests a concerted effort by Ukrainian intelligence to target officials and military personnel inside Russia.
• Pension System Changes (Proposed): A State Duma deputy from United Russia outlined key changes to the pension system over the next three years, including double indexation of insurance pensions and increased support for non-working pensioners.

Kursk Region

• Ukrainian Offensive Activity (Ongoing, Contested):
  • WarGonzo reports that a Ukrainian attempt to break through to Ulanok involved significant personnel and heavy equipment, including tanks and engineering vehicles. They claim that despite some advances, the Ukrainian forces did not achieve major successes, with key logistics routes and positions remaining under Russian control. They also reported that Ukrainian forces landed near Ulanok to ensure arrival of additional forces. Reports of Ukrainian reserves moving in the direction, suggesting a new offensive in the near future. This aligns with previous reports of fighting in the area, but presents a more optimistic view of the Russian defensive efforts.
  • "Dva Mayora" reports that a Ukrainian group that started digging in at the entrance to Cherkasskaya Konopel'ka is dead. They claim that a "Stryker" armored personnel carrier was seen dropping off infantry in the area. This contradicts the previous Russian MoD claim of complete control, but provides a specific location and vehicle type.

Donetsk Region

• Chasiv Yar (Conflicting Reports): WarGonzo reports continued fighting in Chasiv Yar, but no reported advances in the last 24 hours. This contradicts the previous TASS report of a major Russian advance.
• Pokrovsk/Konstantinopol Directions (Russian Advances, Reported):
  • WarGonzo reports continued fighting near Novyi Komar. Russian forces advanced in Dachne, west of Kurakhove, and are cleaning up captured territories. Fighting is ongoing in Andriivka. Russian forces are pushing towards Konstantinopol. They also report continued fighting on several sections of the front near Pokrovsk, with Russian forces pressuring Ukrainian defenses.
  • "Rybar" reports fighting near Rovnopol, Novyi Komar, and Razdolnoe, north of Velyka Novosilka. They claim Russian forces advanced in the northwestern part of Dachne, with footage of a flag being planted on a school building. However, they also report fighting on the southeastern outskirts of the settlement. This suggests continued, incremental Russian gains, but also highlights the ongoing resistance.

Belgorod Region

• Fatal Attack (Confirmed): Three people were killed in the village of Logachevka due to a Ukrainian drone attack on a car. This incident occurred despite a state of emergency being in effect in the village since October 2022, with entry prohibited.

Ukrainian Military Claims

• Russian Personnel Losses (Claimed): The Ukrainian General Staff and "Operativnyi ZSU" claim another 1340 Russian personnel were killed/wounded, along with significant equipment losses (32 artillery systems, 116 UAVs, 96 vehicles). These claims should be treated with caution, as they are likely inflated for propaganda purposes.

Information Operations

• Official Recognition of A-50 Loss: "Sternenko" reports that Russia officially acknowledged that Ukraine shot down an A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft on February 23, 2024, near Trudovaya Armenia in Kuban, resulting in the deaths of 10 crew members.

Overall Situation Assessment (Changes Highlighted)

The most significant developments are:

1. Intensified Russian Strikes (Zaporizhzhia Region): The reported 339 strikes represent a major escalation of Russian activity in this area.
2. Continued Contested Fighting (Kursk Region): The situation around Ulanok and Cherkasskaya Konopel'ka remains highly contested, with conflicting reports from different sources. However, there is general agreement that fighting is ongoing and Ukrainian forces have made some incursions.
3. Incremental Russian Advances (Donetsk Region): Russian forces appear to be making slow but steady gains in the areas west of Kurakhove and north of Velyka Novosilka.
4. Internal Security Threats (Russia): The detailed reports of FSB detentions highlight the ongoing threat of Ukrainian infiltration and sabotage attempts inside Russia and occupied territories.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

1. Counter Ukrainian Infiltration (Kursk Region): [Increased Priority] Due to the persistent Ukrainian incursions, prioritize counterintelligence efforts and strengthen border defenses. Investigate and neutralize any Ukrainian infiltration networks.
2. Exploit Breakthrough (Chasiv Yar): [Maintain Priority] If the TASS report of a major Russian advance is confirmed, prioritize consolidating control and preparing for further offensives.
3. Maintain Pressure (Donetsk Region): Continue efforts to disrupt Ukrainian defenses and exploit any weaknesses, particularly in the areas west of Kurakhove and north of Velyka Novosilka.
4. Address Strikes: Due to the strikes in Nikopolshchyna and Zaporizhzhia Oblast, efforts must be taken to provide support to those affected, and to increase air defenses.
5. Verify Mercenary Claims (Pokrovsk, Makiivka): Gather intelligence to confirm or refute the reported presence and elimination of foreign mercenaries.
6. Monitor and Prepare for Missile Strikes (Black and Mediterranean Seas): Maintain high readiness of air defense systems.
7. Assess and Address Destruction (Kharkiv Region): Evaluate the extent of damage and prioritize efforts to restore critical infrastructure.
8. Maintain high alert in Kursk, and increase security measures in the Fanaseevka direction: [Emphasis Added] Due to the geolocated incursion.
9. Investigate the failures of command: Conduct a thorough investigation.
10. Gather intelligence: Monitor for potential recruitment activities.
11. Monitor US-ICC Tensions: Assess the implications.
12. Address potential consequences: Respond to potential ramifications.
13. Monitor Russia's Propaganda: Pay attention to the developments.
14. Monitor the region of Volgograd: Be prepared.
15. Enhance Internal Security Measures (Russia): Increase counterintelligence efforts.
16. Monitor Russian internal propaganda: Be prepared.
17. Monitor Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) closely: Be prepared.
18. Monitor for potential Russian advances after taking Chasiv Yar: Prepare.
19. Closely monitor the situation in Nikopolshchyna: Prepare for further attacks, and increase protection measures.
20. Assess the impact of the Barents Observer: Consider the impact and react.
21. Evaluate the impact of Trump's sanctions: Assess.
22. Monitor potential protests: Anticipate.
23. Conduct a thorough investigation: Assess the actions of the detainees.
24. Assess Politico's denial of the accusations: Conduct a verification of the claims.
25. Monitor the public reaction: Assess.
26. Evaluate the implications of FSB detentions: Respond appropriately.
27. Monitor propaganda: Be alert.
28. Monitor the Belgorod region: Be prepared.
29. Gather intelligence: Monitor for further actions.