Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 02:00 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 01:30 UTC, February 7)

Geopolitical Developments: Significant Shift in US Policy Under Trump

• Trump Administration Disbands Russian Oligarch Task Force (Confirmed): "RBK-Ukraina" reports that the Trump administration's Justice Department is dissolving the task force created in 2022 to enforce sanctions and prosecute Russian oligarchs close to the Kremlin. Attorney General Pam Bondi issued a memorandum redirecting personnel to focus on drug cartels and transnational criminal organizations. This represents a major shift in US policy, signaling a decreased focus on holding Russian elites accountable for the war in Ukraine.
• Ukraine Settlement Trump's "Main Priority" (Claimed, Context Important): TASS reports that, according to Ludovic Hood (Chief of Staff and advisor to Trump's Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg), settling the Ukraine conflict is Trump's "main priority." This statement, made at a security conference in Washington, should be interpreted in the context of the task force disbandment. It suggests a potential shift towards prioritizing a quick resolution, potentially at the expense of previous US commitments to Ukrainian sovereignty and accountability for Russian actions.

Information Warfare: Russian Propaganda Continues

• British Foreign Secretary's Historical Misrepresentation (Confirmed): "Operatsiya Z: Voyenkory Russkoy Vesny" highlights a misstatement by British Foreign Secretary David Lammy regarding "Kyivan princesses" marrying British princes a thousand years ago. The message emphasizes the Russian narrative that "Kyiv" was "Rus," not "Ukraine," and criticizes Lammy's historical understanding. This is standard Russian historical revisionism aimed at delegitimizing Ukrainian national identity and sovereignty.

Overall Situation Assessment

The situation remains largely unchanged on the ground, with the primary updates concerning a significant shift in US policy under the Trump administration.

1. Drone Offensive Winding Down (For Now): Reports of "last" Shahed drones in Chernihiv region indicate that the current wave of the Russian drone offensive is nearing its conclusion. However, the long-term threat remains HIGH due to Russia's demonstrated commitment to drone warfare.

2. Russia's Strategic Drone Integration: The "Almaz-Antey" system for integrating UAVs into airspace management represents a significant strategic development for Russia, now confirmed to be of use by analysis of the display. This will likely improve their operational efficiency and coordination in the long run.

3. US Focus Shifting Away from Pressure on Russia: The dissolution of the Russian oligarch task force is a major development. Combined with the statement about settling Ukraine being Trump's "main priority," it signals a potential shift towards de-escalation and a negotiated settlement, possibly on terms less favorable to Ukraine. The US stance is clearly shifting away from its previous, more aggressive approach to holding Russian elites accountable.

4. Kyiv Threat Reduced: The lifting of the air raid alert in Kyiv indicates a temporary reduction in the immediate threat to the capital.

5. Kursk Allegations: High Propaganda Potential: The civilian testimony video from Kursk, while unverified, offers significant propaganda opportunities for Russia. It could be used to justify increased security measures and further demonize Ukrainian forces.

6. Information Warfare Continues: Russia continues to push historical narratives aimed at undermining Ukrainian sovereignty and national identity.

Updated Recommendations (in addition to previous recommendations, which remain relevant)

1. Maintain High Alert for Future Drone Attacks: While the current wave is ending, anticipate future attacks. Maintain high readiness of air defense systems and continue to develop counter-drone capabilities.
2. Monitor Russian Airspace Integration Efforts: Gather intelligence on the implementation and effectiveness of Russia's new airspace management system. Assess its potential impact on Ukrainian operations and develop countermeasures if necessary.
3. Engage with US Special Envoy (If Possible), but with Caution: If the US special envoy does travel to the region, engage in discussions, but be prepared for a shift in US priorities. Assess the implications of the task force disbandment and anticipate pressure for a potentially unfavorable negotiated settlement. Focus on securing continued material support, even if the political landscape is shifting.
4. Maintain current readiness state. As the current wave of drones decreases, keep a high alert.
5. Assess Kursk Allegations Carefully: While treating the civilian testimony with sensitivity, independently verify the claims if possible. Be prepared to counter Russian propaganda narratives based on this incident.
6. Diversify International Support: Given the shift in US policy, accelerate efforts to strengthen ties and secure support from other international partners. Focus on nations less susceptible to shifts in US policy.
7. Prepare for Potential Shift in US Stance: Develop contingency plans for a scenario where US support becomes less reliable or conditional. This includes exploring alternative sources of military and financial aid.
8. Counter Russian Information Operations: Actively counter Russian propaganda and historical revisionism. Emphasize Ukrainian sovereignty and national identity. Highlight the human cost of the conflict and Russian aggression.

The disbanding of the Russian oligarch task force is a highly significant development that signals a likely change in US policy towards the conflict. Ukraine must adapt to this new reality and prioritize securing alternative sources of support and preparing for potentially difficult negotiations.