Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 23:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 23:08 UTC)

Drone Warfare: Continued Intense Activity, Refining Trajectories

• Refined Drone Trajectories (Confirmed, Ongoing): The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on drone movements (23:09 UTC):

  • Drones from Chernihiv/Sumy regions continue moving westward.
  • Several groups from Kyiv region are heading towards Zhytomyr region.
  • Drones in Zhytomyr region are heading towards Zhytomyr, Ozerne, and Korosten.
  • Drones in Mykolaiv region are moving westward.

  This update refines the previous assessment of a major, sustained, and geographically widespread Russian drone offensive. The specific targeting of Zhytomyr, Ozerne, and Korosten suggests a possible focus on military or infrastructure targets in those areas. The continued westward movement indicates a likely intent to strike targets deeper inside Ukraine.

• Air Raid Alert Lifted: Air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast is lifted.

Military Claims and Counterclaims:

• Kurakhove: Russian Artillery Strikes (Confirmed): "Colonelcassad" reports (23:19 UTC) that Russian artillery (381st Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment, 150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th Guards Army) destroyed Ukrainian fuel depots, ammunition depots, personnel, equipment, an FPV drone operator location, and a command post in Kurakhove during nighttime operations. This confirms continued intense fighting in the Kurakhove area, with Russian forces targeting Ukrainian logistics and command and control. The video supports the report of Russian forces focusing on destroying Ukrainian supplies, manpower and UAV warfare capabilities.

Geopolitical Developments:

• Trump Signs Sanctions Against ICC (Confirmed): "RBK-Ukraina" reports (23:22 UTC) that Trump signed an executive order imposing sanctions against the International Criminal Court (ICC) due to its investigation into Israel. The order states that the ICC's actions create a "dangerous precedent." Sanctions include a ban on entry to the US for ICC officials. The Associated Press notes that neither the US nor Israel are members of the ICC and do not recognize its jurisdiction. This action further reinforces the assessment of a significant shift in US foreign policy, particularly regarding international legal institutions and its relationship with Israel.

• US Disbands Task Force Targeting Russian Assets (Confirmed): "TASS" reports (23:30 UTC) that US Attorney General Pam Bondi has disbanded the group tasked with finding and seizing the assets of Russian businesses. The memorandum states that personnel will be redistributed to units combating drug cartels and international crime. This confirms the earlier report by "Alex Parker Returns" and solidifies the assessment of a major change in US policy regarding Russian assets.

Overall Situation Assessment

The situation remains HIGHLY DYNAMIC and DANGEROUS, with the following CRITICAL updates:

1. Continued and Refining Russian Drone Offensive: The updated reports of drone trajectories confirm the ongoing and major Russian drone offensive. The specific focus on areas within Zhytomyr region indicates potential targets of strategic importance. The westward movement suggests a sustained campaign.

2. Confirmed Russian Strikes in Kurakhove: The report and accompanying video confirm ongoing Russian offensive operations in Kurakhove, with a focus on degrading Ukrainian logistics and command capabilities.

3. US Policy Shifts Solidified: The confirmed reports of US sanctions against the ICC and the disbanding of the task force targeting Russian assets solidify the assessment of a significant shift in US foreign policy. These actions have major implications for the international legal order, the conflict in Ukraine, and US-Russia relations. The shift away from targeting Russian assets directly impacts the economic pressure campaign against Russia and could embolden further Russian actions.

The overall situation is characterized by continued intense fighting, a major Russian drone offensive, and significant shifts in US policy that could have long-term consequences for the conflict and international relations. The potential for escalation remains high.