Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 05:38 UTC

Major Updates (Since February 6, 2025, 05:08 UTC)

1. Chasiv Yar Encirclement (Pro-Russian Source): "Dnevnik Desantnika" (Paratrooper's Diary) reports continued Russian pressure on Ukrainian defenses around Chasiv Yar, claiming ongoing maneuvers to encircle the city center. Specific claims include:

   • Completion of the clearing of the Novoseverny microdistrict.
   • Pressure southward, blocking a Ukrainian supply corridor.
   • Active efforts to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the Shevchenko microdistrict and the territory of "CEH No. 1" (likely another industrial facility) of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant.
   • This reinforces previous reports of intense fighting and Russian advances around Chasiv Yar, with a focus on encircling the city center and disrupting Ukrainian supply lines. The claims, while from a pro-Russian source, provide further detail on the ongoing operation. The channel provides a map showing a likely location of the Russian and Ukrainian forces.

2. Russian Naval Presence (Black Sea): Ukrainian sources ("RBK-Ukraina" and General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) report one Russian warship in the Black Sea, carrying up to four "Kalibr" cruise missiles. No enemy ships are reported in the Azov Sea. Six enemy ships, including two "Kalibr" carriers with up to 22 missiles, are reported in the Mediterranean Sea. This reinforces the ongoing naval threat, particularly from the Mediterranean.

3. Kerch Strait Activity: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports ship movements through the Kerch Strait:

   • Six ships moved towards the Black Sea, with five continuing towards the Bosporus.
   • Seven ships moved towards the Azov Sea, with six coming from the Bosporus.
   • This indicates continued Russian naval activity and logistical movements through the strait.

4. Drone Activity (Claims and Counterclaims):

   • The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down 28 Ukrainian drones overnight (ASTRA): 13 over the Azov Sea, 8 in Rostov Oblast, 6 in Krasnodar Krai, and 1 in Astrakhan Oblast. "RBK-Ukraina" also reports on this claim.
   • "Operativny ZSU" claims 1240 Russian soldiers were "cleansed" in the past day.
   • "RBK-Ukraina" also reports Ukrainian claims of destroying 1240 Russian soldiers, 18 tanks, 16 armored fighting vehicles, 46 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, and 2 air defense systems in the past day.
   • The Ukrainian Air Force ("Povitryani Syly ZS Ukrainy") reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeast, with a threat of using aviation weapons.
   • Guided aerial bombs are reported to have been launched towards Zaporizhzhia Oblast, specifically towards the city of Zaporizhzhia.
   • This highlights the continued, and possibly escalating, use of drones and airstrikes by both sides.

5. Ground Operations Summary ("Arkhangel Spetsnaza"):

   • Kyiv, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Poltava Oblasts: Russian drone strikes overnight.
   • Rostov Oblast: Ukrainian drones destroyed in multiple districts.
   • Kursk Oblast: Fighting continues for Kurilovka. Battles reported in Maryevka and Pogrebki. A Russian missile strike targeted a Ukrainian troop concentration in Stetskovka, Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian special forces (220 personnel) reportedly deployed to the Sudzha border area.
   • Kupyansk Direction (North): Russian forces are crossing the Oskol River and establishing new bridgeheads on the right bank. Novomlynsk (Kharkiv Oblast) reportedly liberated. Advances reported southwest and south of Topoli, and near Dvorichne and Zapadne.
   • Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) Direction: Russian offensive actions continue near Yelyzavetivka, Lysovka, Zverevo, Kotlino, Udachne, Nadeevka, Sribne, and Andreevka. Ukrainian counteractions are reported.
   • Konstantinopol Direction: Fighting in Dachne. Reports of Russian success in the settlement.
   • Zaporizhzhia Front: Russian forces are destroying Ukrainian "Starlink" terminals with drone drops. Russian airstrikes and MLRS strikes target Ukrainian rear areas near Mala Tokmachka and Orikhiv. Ukrainian drone attacks reported on civilian targets in Polohy and Shevchenkove.
   • Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian drone strikes damaged three houses in Genichesk.
   • Belgorod Oblast: Multiple drone strikes reported, causing damage and one injury.

6. Panama Canal Fees Waived (US Government Ships): The US State Department announces that Panama has waived fees for US government ships transiting the Panama Canal, saving millions of dollars annually ("RBK-Ukraina"). This improves US logistical flexibility.

7. Russian MLRS Operations (Video Analysis): A video from TASS, attributed to the Russian Ministry of Defense, shows a modified BM-21 "Grad" MLRS unit operating in a muddy environment, reportedly targeting Ukrainian FPV drone launch points. The unit also claims to have shot down several drones using small arms. The presence of "Novorossiya" patches on some personnel is noted.

8. Ukrainian Military Casualties (Claim): The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine releases an infographic claiming significant Russian losses since February 24, 2022. This reinforces ongoing information warfare efforts.

9. Genocide Request (Kherson Oblast): The Russian Prosecutor General's Office requests that Nazi crimes during World War II in the Kherson region be recognized as genocide (TASS). This is likely a propaganda effort to justify current actions.

10. Explosions in Zaporizhzhia: "Suspilne" reports explosions in the Zaporizhzhia city area ("RBK-Ukraina"). This confirms earlier reports of airstrikes in the region.

11. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Attacks: The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration reports 473 attacks on 14 settlements in the region in the past 24 hours, including airstrikes, drone attacks, MLRS shelling, and artillery strikes. Fifteen reports of damage to residential buildings were received, with no civilian casualties reported. This confirms the widespread and intense attacks on the region.

12. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Drone Attacks and Damage: Serhiy Lysak, head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration, reports that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 8 drones in the region overnight. Damage to four private houses, a utility building, and a greenhouse was reported in the Dniprovskyi district. No casualties were reported. Heavy artillery attacks targeted Nikopol, Marhanetska, and Pokrovska communities overnight, with no reported casualties. New attacks are reported in Nikopol and Marhanetska communities in the morning. Updated information indicates two private houses destroyed and eight damaged in the Novopavlivska community, along with damage to a car, gas pipeline, and power line. ("RBK-Ukraina" confirms the damage.)

13. Russian Advances (Kharkiv and Belgorod Oblasts): TASS reports Russian forces advancing in the areas of Lyman Druhyi and Topoli in Kharkiv Oblast and southwest of Logachevka in Belgorod Oblast, effectively pushing Ukrainian forces away from the Belgorod Oblast border (attributed to Marochko).

14. Drone Attack Repelled (Astrakhan Oblast): TASS reports that air defense forces repelled a drone attack on the Akhtubinsky district of Astrakhan Oblast overnight. No damage or casualties were reported.

15. WarGonzo Frontline Summary (06.02.2025):

    • Zaporizhzhia Front: No significant changes, positional battles continue, and active use of long-range weapons by both sides.
    • Donetsk Front: Ukrainian forces attempted a counterattack near Novyi Komar. Russian forces advanced in Dachne, with reports of complete liberation of the settlement and retreat of the Ukrainian garrison towards Ulakly (unconfirmed). Fighting continues in Andriivka. On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces continue to advance on a broad front, with battles in several areas, but main forces not yet engaged. Fighting continues on the northern outskirts of Dzerzhynsk.
    • Chasiv Yar Direction: The assault on Chasiv Yar continues, with reported tactical successes by Russian forces.
    • Kursk Oblast: No significant changes in the frontline over the last 24 hours. Russian forces continue to press the Ukrainian defense, with Ukrainian forces counterattacking and transferring fresh reserves.

Updated Situation

The military situation remains highly dynamic, with a continued focus on several key areas:

• Chasiv Yar: Intense fighting continues, with Russian forces reportedly making progress towards encircling the city center and disrupting Ukrainian supply lines. This remains a major Russian offensive effort. The assault continues, with reported tactical successes.
• Kupyansk Direction: Russian forces are making gains, establishing bridgeheads across the Oskol River, liberating settlements, and pushing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) and Konstantinopol Directions: Russian offensive actions continue, with reported successes, including advances in Dachne.
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Fronts: Mutual strikes and drone warfare continue. Zaporizhzhia city and the wider region experience intense attacks, including airstrikes, drone attacks, and shelling.
• Drone and Air Warfare: Extensive drone activity is reported by both sides, with claims and counterclaims of drone shootdowns. Airstrikes, including guided aerial bombs, are targeting Zaporizhzhia. Drone attacks are reported in multiple regions of Russia.
• Naval Situation: A limited Russian naval presence is reported in the Black Sea, with a more significant presence in the Mediterranean. Kerch Strait traffic continues.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Experienced drone attacks overnight, with reported damage to civilian infrastructure.
• Kharkiv and Belgorod Oblasts: Russian advances are reported, pushing back Ukrainian forces from the border.
• Kursk Front: Remains relatively static, with ongoing fighting and reinforcement efforts by both sides.

The most significant new information confirms the continued intensification of the battle for Chasiv Yar. The extensive drone and air activity, along with claims of significant casualties, underscores the ongoing intensity of the conflict. The waiving of Panama Canal fees for US government ships is a significant development with implications for US military logistics. The claim about 70 liberated settlements has been removed from the main assessment because it seems likely to be an error, either in the 70 or the 34. Reports of explosions in Zaporizhzhia and details of widespread attacks across the region confirm the escalating conflict in that area. Advances reported in Kharkiv and Belgorod Oblasts highlight the ongoing Russian push.