Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 02:38 UTC
Major Updates (Since February 6, 2025, 02:08 UTC)
Strategic Nuclear Forces (Russia)
Yars ICBM Deployment: The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) of the Yoshkar-Ola missile formation have been deployed on combat patrol routes (02:14 UTC). This is a significant development, signaling a heightened state of readiness for Russia's strategic nuclear forces. While it doesn't directly affect the fighting in Ukraine, it's a reminder of the broader, potentially existential stakes of the conflict and serves as a deterrent message to NATO.
Video of Yars deployment and camouflage has been provided, showing strategic readiness.
Drone Warfare
Kirovohrad Oblast Drone Movement: Enemy attack UAVs are observed in the east of Kirovohrad Oblast, moving westward (02:24 UTC). This confirms the continued drone threat, shifting focus westward from previous reports.
Ground Situation - Pokrovsk
Ukrainian Successes Reported, Conflicting with Prior Reports: RBC-Ukraine, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports that Ukrainian forces recently had success near Pokrovsk (southwest of the city) (02:33 UTC). This is a NEW and potentially CONTRADICTORY development. Previous reports detailed a dire situation for Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk area. This requires careful assessment and correlation with other sources. It's possible this refers to a localized counterattack, not a major shift in the overall strategic picture.
Russian forces are advancing near Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Kurakhove.
Video evidence has been provided showing Russian artillery and drones targeting a Ukrainian UAV squad.
ISW Map Analysis (Multiple Fronts)
RBC-Ukraine has provided a series of maps from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), dated February 5, 2025, covering various sectors of the front. Key takeaways, combined with previous reports:
Kursk Direction: Significant fighting near Sudzha and Malaya Loknya. Ukrainian advances inside Russia are marked, suggesting a cross-border incursion. Russian field fortifications are present. This confirms the ongoing conflict in the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces seemingly on the offensive within Russian territory.
Kharkiv Direction: Fighting near Kozacha Lopan and Vovchansk. Claimed Ukrainian counteroffensives along the border. Russian field fortifications. This suggests a contested area, with both sides claiming gains. Partisan warfare is ongoing.
Kupyansk Direction: Significant fighting. Russian advances claimed near Dvorichna and across the Oskil River. Ukrainian counteroffensives claimed. This remains a hot zone, with Russian forces seemingly making gains. Ukrainian partisan warfare is present.
Luhansk Oblast: Significant fighting around Kupyansk, Svatove, Kreminna, Bakhmut and Pokrovsk. Russian advances, and Ukrainian counteroffensives claimed. This indicates an active and fluid frontline.
Donetsk Oblast: Widespread fighting, particularly near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and south of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Assessed Russian advances and claimed Ukrainian counteroffensives. This remains the primary focus of the conflict, with ongoing battles for key settlements.
Chasiv Yar Direction: Intense fighting around Chasiv Yar and Stupochky. Assessed Russian advances east of these locations. This confirms previous reports of a major Russian push in this area.
Kherson Direction: Contested zones, Ukrainian partisan warfare reported. This suggests ongoing resistance behind Russian lines, though the front appears relatively static compared to other sectors.
Zaporizhzhia Direction: Significant fighting near Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne. Both Russian and Ukrainian advances claimed. This is another active and contested area, with both sides making gains.
Kurakhove Direction: Fighting near Andriivka and Dachne. Russian advances claimed. This reinforces previous reports of a Russian offensive in this area.
Toretsk Direction: Geolocated footage confirms Russian advances within Toretsk along specific streets. This corroborates earlier reports of a dire situation for Ukrainian forces in Toretsk, with Russian troops gaining ground within the city itself.
Geopolitical Developments
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Updated Situation
The most critical developments are:
Heightened Russian Nuclear Alert: The deployment of Yars ICBMs is a major strategic move, though not directly tied to the tactical situation in Ukraine.
Conflicting Reports on Pokrovsk: The reported Ukrainian success near Pokrovsk, while potentially significant, needs to be carefully evaluated against prior reports of a Russian offensive in the area. It could represent a localized counterattack or a shift in momentum, but more information is needed.
Confirmed Russian Advances (Multiple Fronts): The ISW maps, combined with previous reports, provide strong evidence of ongoing Russian offensives in multiple sectors, particularly around Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove.
Continued Drone Warfare: Drone activity persists, with a shift in focus towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
Ukrainian Counteroffensive in Kursk: Ukrainian forces continue their operations, and have made significant gains.
The overall situation remains highly dynamic and complex. While there might be a localized Ukrainian success near Pokrovsk, the broader trend indicates continued Russian pressure on multiple fronts, particularly in the Donetsk region. The heightened alert status of Russian strategic nuclear forces adds a layer of complexity to the strategic landscape.
