Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 00:38 UTC

Major Updates (Since February 6, 2025, 00:08 UTC)

Drone Warfare & Air Raid Alerts

• Continued and Expanding Drone Threat: The drone attacks are ongoing and expanding, with new threats identified in multiple regions. The complexity and geographic spread suggest a sustained and coordinated Russian offensive.
  • Nikopol (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): A drone threat has been declared for Nikopol, coming from the south. This expands the attack's southern axis.
  • Chernihiv City: A new drone threat has emerged for Chernihiv city, coming from the northeast. This expands the attack's northern axis.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: New groups of drones are entering southwestern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the temporarily occupied territories (TOT) of Zaporizhzhia, moving north.
  • Detailed Drone Movements (Continued Tracking): The fine-grained tracking of drone movements continues, revealing the ongoing, multi-pronged nature of the attack:
    • Zhytomyr/Vinnytsia Oblast Border: One drone is on the border, moving west.
    • Kamyanske Area (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Five drones are south of Kamyanske, heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
    • Nikopol Area: Seven new drones are heading towards/through Nikopol.
    • Chernihiv Area: Two drones are heading towards/through Chernihiv.
    • Pryluky Area: One drone is heading towards/through Pryluky.
    • Korosten Area: One drone is in the area, moving west.
    • Sumy/Chernihiv/Poltava Oblast Border: Drones are on the border, moving west.
    • Central Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are in the center, moving south.
    • Northern Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are in the north, moving west.
    • Zhytomyr/Vinnytsia Oblast Border: Drones are on the border, moving west.
    • Northern Donetsk Oblast: Drones are in the north, moving south.
    • Southwestern/Western Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Drones are in these areas, moving northwest.
• Confirmed Air Activity (Eastern Front) Activitiy of Russian tactical aviation is confirmed on the eastern front. There is a threat of the use of air-launched weapons. This further increases the threat level.
• Confirmed Air Activity (Donetsk Front) Launches of guided bombs (KABs) have been confirmed by Russian tactical aviation towards Donetsk. A KAB was reported heading towards Kramatorsk, but later changed direction towards Slovyansk. This highlights the immediate danger to these key cities in Donetsk Oblast.
• Drone attack warning Samara, Russia.

Donetsk Region (Chasiv Yar)

• FPV Drone Strike: Russian forces (215th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, 98th Airborne Division) used an FPV drone ("Molniya 2.0") to destroy a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in Chasiv Yar. This shows the ongoing, intense, close-quarters combat in Chasiv Yar, and the continued use of FPV drones for precision strikes.

Updated Situation

The most critical new developments are the continued and expanding Russian drone attacks, the confirmed use of guided aerial bombs targeting Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, and the ongoing use of FPV drones in close combat in Chasiv Yar.

• Sustained Multi-Pronged Drone Attack: The detailed drone movement reports confirm a persistent, multi-pronged, and likely multi-wave drone attack. The new threats to Nikopol and Chernihiv city, along with the continued drone activity in other regions, indicate Russia is maintaining pressure on Ukrainian air defenses across a wide front.
• Combined Air Offensive Continues: The confirmed activity of Russian tactical aviation on the eastern front, coupled with the use of guided aerial bombs targeting Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, and ongoing drone attacks, demonstrate a sustained and combined air offensive. This is the most significant escalation, posing a severe and immediate threat to key Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
• Intense Close Combat in Chasiv Yar: The use of an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian position in Chasiv Yar underscores the ongoing, intense, close-quarters combat in the city. This highlights the importance of this battleground and the continued use of precision drone strikes.

The overall situation is extremely dangerous and volatile. The multi-pronged drone attack, combined with airstrikes using guided aerial bombs, presents a major challenge to Ukrainian air defenses and puts key cities at significant risk. The continued close combat in Chasiv Yar, with the use of FPV drones, shows the intensity of the ground fighting. Continuous monitoring and analysis are critical.