Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 22:38 UTC
Key Developments and Changes (Since Previous Update)
Military Operations
Kharkiv Region (Confirmed Drone Strike Damage): Further details confirm that the drone strike in Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district, near transport infrastructure, damaged trade pavilions in a market. Debris from a "Geran" drone was identified. Drone detected moving towards Brovary/Kyiv.
Kursk Region (Alleged Russian Advance near Kurilovka): A report, with accompanying map imagery, claims Russian forces launched an infantry attack near Kurilovka, crossing the Psel River under Ukrainian fire, and expanded their control zone by 2 km south of the settlement. The coordinates provided are 51.117946, 35.278082. This requires independent verification.
Vozdvyzhenka Area (Reported POW Capture): A video reportedly shows Ukrainian soldiers from the 3rd Mechanized Battalion of the 157th Separate Mechanized Brigade capturing Russian soldiers near Vozdvyzhenka. This requires independent verification. Another video posted to a different source confirms this.
South Donetsk Direction (Reported Capture of UK Mastiff): A video purportedly shows a captured British Mastiff armored vehicle, claimed to have been damaged by multiple cumulative rounds and recovered by a Russian tank battalion. A similar Mastiff was reportedly captured near Olgovka, Kursk region. This requires independent verification.
Krasnohorivka, Donetsk Region (Destroyed MaxxPro): A destroyed US-supplied M1224 International MaxxPro MRAP was reported in the area.
Andriivka and Dachne: DeepState map updated, showing Russian advances in these areas.
Drone Warfare
Extensive Drone Activity (Confirmed - Updated Movements): The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on Russian drone movements:
Southwestern Sumy Oblast: Drones moving west/southwest/northwest. New groups entering the north of Sumy region, heading southwest. Another drone from Sumy to Kharkiv.
Border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts: Drones moving north/east.
Border of Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts: Drones moving south/southwest.
Eastern Cherkasy Oblast: Drones moving south. Drones also on the border of Poltava and Cherkasy, and in the east and west of Cherkasy.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert has been lifted.
Northeast Chernihiv: Drones heading Southwest.
Northwest Kharkiv: Drone heading south.
Mykolaiv Region: Threat of drone strikes from the north.
Uman, Cherkasy Region: Drone threat from the east.
Vinnytsia Region: Threat of drones from the East.
Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia): A reported strike near the airfield, with claims it was a Shahed drone storage facility.
"Baba Yaga" Drones: A compilation video purportedly shows Russian drones successfully ramming Ukrainian drones, including the "Baba Yaga" type.
Geopolitical Developments
UAE Mediation: The UAE has reportedly facilitated the exchange of over 2,800 prisoners between Russia and Ukraine since the beginning of 2024.
Zelenskyy on US Aid: President Zelenskyy confirmed that US military aid continues, but consists of packages approved under the Biden administration. No new packages have been approved under Trump. Reuters reported a temporary halt in US aid last week, which has since resumed.
Ukrainian Military Actions & Claims
225th Assault Battalion Reorganized: The 225th Assault Battalion, originally part of the 127th Territorial Defense Brigade of Kharkiv, has been officially reorganized into the 225th Separate Assault Regiment. The unit claims involvement in battles near Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and "Operation Kursk." They claim to have been holding positions "on the territory of the nuclear aggressor" for six months. This must be treated with extreme skepticism without independent confirmation.
Captured/Destroyed Equipment
MaxxPro MRAP: The video shows the destroyed vehicle.
Tunnel Networks
A video shows tunnel networks in Ugledar.
Russian Statements
Russia claims readiness for a serious discussion about a peaceful settlement, without changing its previously held position.
Russian Cyber Attacks
Russian authorities report that most cyber leaks in 2024 occurred within the trade and services sector. They also report 2 million rubles in fines for leaks this year.
Updated Situation Summary
Confirmed Drone Strike Damage (Kharkiv): The drone strike in Kharkiv caused confirmed damage to market trade pavilions.
Claimed Russian Advance (Kursk Region): The report of a Russian advance near Kurilovka, with specific coordinates and imagery, requires careful scrutiny and independent verification. It suggests a potential escalation of fighting in this border area.
Claimed POW Capture (Vozdvyzhenka): The video of captured soldiers needs verification but highlights ongoing clashes in that area. Two different sources reporting this increases its likelihood.
Reported Mastiff Capture: The claim of a captured British Mastiff, if true, further illustrates the flow of Western military equipment into the conflict and the risks of its capture by Russian forces.
Ongoing Drone Activity (Multiple Regions): The updated drone movement information highlights the continued and widespread threat across multiple Ukrainian regions, requiring constant air defense vigilance. The lifting of the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia provides a temporary respite in that area. New drone threats in Mykolaiv, Uman, and Vinnytsia require heightened alert. The reported strike on a Shahed storage facility in Russia, if confirmed, is a significant blow to Russian drone capabilities.
UAE Mediation Role: The reported involvement of the UAE in facilitating significant prisoner exchanges underscores the diplomatic efforts underway to mitigate some aspects of the conflict.
Zelenskyy's Confirmation on US Aid: This clarifies the current status of US military assistance, highlighting the dependence on pre-existing commitments and the uncertainty surrounding future aid packages.
Ukrainian Military Reorganization: The formal reorganization of the 225th Assault Battalion into a regiment suggests an attempt to enhance its operational capabilities and potentially reflects a shift in Ukrainian military strategy. Their claim of holding positions inside Russia for six months is highly significant and, if true, would represent a major escalation, but it must be treated with extreme skepticism without independent confirmation.
Donkey Usage: Multiple photos and videos claiming to show Russian forces using donkeys for logistics purposes, though unusual, suggest potential supply chain issues or adaptations to difficult terrain. This requires careful verification, as it could also be misinformation.
Destroyed MaxxPro: The confirmed destruction of a US-supplied MaxxPro MRAP near Krasnohorivka is a loss for Ukrainian forces and further evidence of ongoing fighting in the Donetsk region.
DeepState Map Updates: The confirmed advances near Andriivka and Dachne reflect Russian gains in the Donetsk region, indicating a shift in the frontline.
The military situation remains highly dynamic. The focus remains on intense drone warfare across multiple regions, with claimed Russian progress in Donetsk and potential supply/logistical adaptations (if the donkey reports are true). The confirmed destruction of Western-supplied equipment and the ongoing threat of drone strikes highlight the continued intensity of the conflict. The formal acknowledgment of ongoing, but limited, US aid emphasizes the precariousness of Ukraine's support situation. Russia's statement about peaceful settlements, combined with continued military action, is likely a strategic posture rather than a genuine shift.
