Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 20:08 UTC
Key Developments and Changes (Since 19:38 UTC)
Military Operations
Kharkiv Region (Confirmed Russian Advance): The Russian Ministry of Defense officially reports the liberation of Zakhidne, near Kupiansk. Multiple sources confirm this advance, indicating a significant shift in the front line. Russian forces are expanding their bridgehead beyond the Oskil River, advancing towards Kupiansk. Fighting continues near Dvorichna, where the 25th Brigade is reportedly engaged. Russian forces have liberated Novomlynsk (Kharkiv region).
Donetsk Region (Pokrovsk Direction - Intense Fighting): A video shows the aftermath of a significant battle under a bridge near Novokamarsk, allegedly involving heavy casualties among Russian "Storm Z" units. The video shows numerous bodies and scattered anti-personnel mines, suggesting a devastating engagement. The recording soldier's statements point to poor planning and lack of support, contributing to low morale. Russian forces, specifically drone operators from the "Otazhnykh" unit, are actively targeting Ukrainian vehicles, including a Bradley Fighting Vehicle, in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian assault troops from the Center group reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian position in a basement.
Sumy Region: Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs were reported.
Luhansk Region: Russian forces continue to advance south of Zapadnoye.
Drone Warfare
Drone Activity (Various Regions): Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy drone movements. Drones were spotted in the western part of Sumy Oblast and the eastern part of Chernihiv Oblast. These were moving southwest. Drones in southeastern Kharkiv Oblast were reported, moving west/northwest. Drones in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast were moving north. A drone was reported in the southeastern part of Zaporozhzhia. New enemy drones have been detected entering the Dnipropetrovsk region from the Zaporizhzhia region.
Drone Attacks (Russia): Reports of drone attacks continue in southern Russia, including the cities of Shakhty (Rostov Oblast) and Slavyansk-on-Kuban (Krasnodar Krai). Smoke was reported in Primorsko-Akhtarsk. The airport in Volgograd, Russia, has introduced temporary restrictions. Preliminary reports indicate a hit in the area of the Primorsko-Akhtarsk airfield.
Drone attacks (Ukraine): Drone attacks have been confirmed against targets in Ukraine.
Geopolitical Developments
Diplomatic Developments:
The US is reportedly expected to take steps to normalize relations with Russia, with Moscow open to dialogue in a "tough bargaining mode" considering the "realities on the ground," according to Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. Russia is ready to negotiate with the US on Ukraine.
Trump's special representative, Keith Kellogg, is reportedly planning a visit to Ukraine on February 20th, according to Ukrainian sources. He is expected to present a US plan to end the war after attending the Munich Security Conference.
The White House Press Secretary states that the US Department of State Efficiency is stopping funding for Politico and other media outlets. The US State Department is completely stopping the budget financing of all media.
Sanctions: President Zelensky has signed sanctions against individuals and organizations involved in the removal of historical artifacts from occupied territories. Targeted institutions include the "State Historical and Archaeological Museum-Reserve 'Chersonese Tauric'," the "East Crimean Historical and Cultural Museum-Reserve," and the "Central Museum of Taurida." Individuals sanctioned include Russian historian Mikhail Piotrovsky and Sergey Obryvalin, the First Deputy Minister of Culture of the Russian Federation.
Cybersecurity: A hacker has been arrested in Spain for carrying out dozens of attacks on strategic targets, including the Civil Guard, the Ministry of Defense, the National Mint, and other institutions.
Internal Russian Issues
Former Wagner Group Member Crime (Primorsky Krai): A former Wagner Group member, previously convicted of murder, has been arrested for killing one person and injuring two others in a domestic dispute in Lesozavodsk.
Treason Accusation (North Ossetia): A resident of North Ossetia is accused of treason for transferring medicines to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2022.
North Ossetian Military Personnel: North Ossetian military personnel claim to have been sent to a storm company for complaining about crimes committed by the military commandant's office in Melitopol.
Ukrainian Military Actions & Claims
Zelenskyy's Address: President Zelensky announced preparations for a new National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) agenda, focusing on financial stability, support for Ukrainian families, and addressing high prices for essential goods like medicines. He threatened personnel changes if concrete steps are not taken. He also continues to push for sanctions against Russia and a strong diplomatic effort. Zelensky has instructed officials to address high prices of medicines.
Ukraine national resistance preparation centers: Centers are being created to prepare the civil population to resist Russia, particularly in the bordering regions.
Updated Situation Summary
Confirmed Russian Advance (Kharkiv Region): The capture of Zakhidne marks a significant Russian gain, solidifying their push towards Kupiansk. This is confirmed by multiple sources. Russian forces have liberated Novomlynsk.
Intense Fighting (Donetsk Region): The video evidence and reports from the Pokrovsk direction suggest fierce fighting and heavy casualties, particularly among Russian forces, though exact figures are difficult to verify. Drone warfare remains a prominent tactic.
Continued Drone Activity (Confirmed): Drone movements across Ukraine continue to be reported. Reports of drone attacks in southern Russia are coming in, indicating increased activity in the region.
Geopolitical Developments and Diplomatic Maneuvering: The reported visit of Trump's representative and potential steps towards US-Russia dialogue add complexity. Zelensky's sanctions and focus on economic stability highlight Ukraine's internal efforts.
Prisoner of War Exchange (Confirmed): 150 Russian servicemen have been returned in an exchange.
Airport Restrictions: The temporary restriction of the airport in Volgograd is a new development that requires monitoring for its implication.
Further Russian Advances: Russian forces are continuing to expand their control over the Oskil River, advancing towards Kupyansk.
The military situation is marked by a confirmed significant Russian advance in the Kharkiv region and intense, costly fighting in the Donetsk region. Drone warfare remains a significant element, both within Ukraine and targeting Russia. New drone attacks were reported in Russia. Diplomatic activity and internal Ukrainian measures add layers of complexity to the evolving conflict. The release of prisoners is a humanitarian action that has been confirmed.
