Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 19:08 UTC
Key Developments and Changes (Since 18:38 UTC)
Drone Warfare
Drone Activity Updates (Various Regions):
Sumy Oblast: A guided aerial bomb (KAB) was reported heading towards the city of Sumy. This confirms earlier reports of increased Russian air activity, and the use of guided bombs.
Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Chernihiv Oblasts: Threat of enemy attack drones still in effect.
Air Force Updates on Drone Movements:
* Drones in western Sumy Oblast and eastern Chernihiv Oblast are moving southwest.
* Drones in southeastern Kharkiv Oblast are moving west/northwest.
* Drones in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are moving north.
Ballistic Missile Threat: A threat of ballistic weapon use exists in regions where an air raid alert has been declared. The all-clear has been given for the threat of ballistic weaponry. A renewed threat has been issued for Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts.
Military Operations
Krasnoarmeysk-Peschanoye (Donetsk Oblast) (Confirmed Ukrainian Advances): Active fighting is ongoing. Ukrainian forces, in a column of motorized infantry units, attacked in the direction of Peschanoye. They were targeted by Russian FPV drones. Ukrainian forces advanced approximately 1.5 km, reaching the industrial zone of the "Krasnoarmeyskaya-Zapadnaya No. 3" mine under construction in Peschanoye. Multiple reports confirm these Ukrainian gains and show video and photographic evidence of the area and targeting of Ukrainian forces by Russian drones. These reports confirm earlier reporting and add detail regarding location, scale, and the nature of the Ukrainian advance.
Kursk Region: Motorbikes are being used for faster and safer personnel rotation, evacuation of wounded, transportation of assault units, and delivery of supplies.
Krasnolimansk Direction: Russian forces from the 144th Guards Motorized Rifle Division are engaging Ukrainian forces. Reports indicate the elimination of Ukrainian personnel.
Bryansk Direction: The 78th Motor Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" of the Russian Armed Forces is active. A reconnaissance group identified a camouflaged enemy observation post, eliminating one combatant and severely wounding another. A bridge was mined and destroyed, along with several enemy personnel attempting to retreat.
Zaporozhye Direction Ural scouts of the 90th Division of the Central Military District are attacking.
Sumy Oblast: Russian forces are actively targeting personnel and equipment in various locations. An Iskander-M missile strike targeted enemy reserves in Stetskivka, destroying an ammunition depot and over 50 units of armored and high-mobility vehicles.
Geopolitical Developments
Israel Exits UN Human Rights Council (Confirmed): Israel's Foreign Ministry confirms their exit, following a similar decision by the United States.
Prisoner of War (POW) Exchange (Confirmed): A video shows a prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine.
Alleged FSB Plot (Update): Ukrainian authorities (National Police and SBU) continue to claim that the FSB is behind attacks on Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCC) and police administrative buildings to destabilize Ukraine.
Potential Trump Peace Plan: Reports suggest a potential "peace plan" from Trump's special representative, Keith Kellogg, involving a conflict freeze and the introduction of peacekeepers. This is likely to be rejected by Russia.
Moldova: The brother of former President Igor Dodon was detained in Chisinau upon arrival from Russia.
Internal Russian Issues
Former Samara Mayor's Death (Update): The granddaughter of Viktor Tarkhov, the former mayor of Samara, has been arrested on suspicion of his murder.
Vladivostok Oceanarium Closure: The Vladivostok City Oceanarium, operating since 1991, closed on January 31, 2025. The building will be converted into a branch of the National Center "Russia," including a military-patriotic zone.
North Ossetia Resident Accused of Treason: A resident of North Ossetia is accused of treason for transferring medicines to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2022.
Compensation for Injured Conscript: The Ministry of Defense will pay 800,000 rubles to a conscript who lost a kidney due to a negligent discharge by a fellow soldier.
Ukrainian Military Actions & Claims
Drone Operations ("Shadow" Unit): A Ukrainian drone unit ("Shadow") identified a large concentration of Russian personnel, living quarters, and vehicles. The area was subsequently targeted with cluster munitions.
Ukrainian Artillery Successes (Update): The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, claims 13,000 Russian artillery systems have been destroyed in 2024.
Ukrainian Drone Operations ("Favorit" Unit): Ukrainian drone operators from the "Favorit" unit of the 107th Territorial Defense Brigade targeted Russian soldiers on crutches.
Defense Companies Critical Criteria Refinement: The NSDC has instructed the Cabinet of Ministers to improve the criteria for recognizing defense companies as critically important.
Heat Company, Water Supply, and Waste Management Employees Workers in these fields will be eligible for up to 75% draft exemption.
Quad Bike Use (Confirmed): The "Forpost" Border Guard Brigade showcased the use of quad bikes (ATVs) for reconnaissance, patrols, assaults, supply delivery, and medical evacuation. This confirms previous reports and adds detail.
Kharkiv Front: Ukrainian soldiers of the 77th Airmobile Brigade targeted Russian infantry using drones.
Other
USAID Funding of Celebrities' Ukraine Visits: Reports indicate that visits to Ukraine by celebrities like Angelina Jolie, Sean Penn, and others were funded by USAID, allegedly to increase Zelensky's popularity and facilitate funding programs.
Crimea Mobile Network Outages (Confirmed): Reports indicate that mobile communication and mobile internet are down in several Crimean cities, including Yevpatoria, Kerch, Feodosia, and Sudak.
Updated Situation Summary
Confirmed Ukrainian Advances (Donetsk Oblast): Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances near Peschanoye, pushing forward approximately 1.5 km and reaching a key industrial area. This confirms a shift in the front line in this specific area.
Increased Russian Air Activity (Confirmed): The report of a guided aerial bomb targeting Sumy, along with earlier reports of airstrikes and increased drone activity, confirms a significant escalation in Russian air operations, particularly in the north.
Drone Warfare Intensifies (Confirmed): Widespread drone activity continues, with threats reported across multiple regions. This reinforces the importance of drones as a key element of the conflict.
Geopolitical Maneuvering: Israel's confirmed exit from the UNHRC alongside the US adds to the complexity of the international landscape. Potential "peace plan" discussions highlight ongoing diplomatic efforts, though skepticism remains.
Information Warfare: The Ukrainian claims of FSB involvement in attacks on TCCs and the reports on USAID-funded celebrity visits demonstrate the ongoing information war and attempts to influence public opinion.
Crimea Communication Outages: The confirmed mobile network outages across multiple Crimean cities are a significant development. This could be the result of a Ukrainian attack, cyber warfare, or deliberate jamming. The implications include disruption of communication, potential impact on military operations, and increased anxiety among the civilian population.
Ukrainian Military Adaptability: The confirmed use of quad bikes for various roles highlights the adaptability of Ukrainian forces in utilizing available resources to meet battlefield needs.
New POW Testimony: A captured AFU serviceman claims his command tried to eliminate him with a drone.
Russian forces continue to advance. The report from the Diary of a Paratrooper states that the forces continue to advance south of the Oskil river, north of Topol, west of Lozova, south and west of Zelenyi Hai. They also continue to fight in the Sverdlikovo region, Sumy region, and Kharkiv region.
The military situation in Ukraine is marked by confirmed Ukrainian advances in Donetsk Oblast and a significant escalation in Russian air activity, particularly in the north. Widespread drone warfare continues, and the confirmed mobile network outages in Crimea add a new layer of complexity and concern. The ongoing information war, combined with geopolitical developments and internal Russian issues, continues to shape the dynamics of the conflict. Ukrainian forces are adapting to battlefield challenges, while claims and counterclaims regarding military successes and internal issues persist on both sides.
