Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 18:08 UTC
Key Developments and Changes (Since 17:38 UTC)
Drone Warfare
Air Raid Alert Lifted (Zaporizhzhia): The previously declared air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region has been lifted. This suggests a temporary reduction in immediate threat, though the situation remains volatile.
Ballistic Missile Threat Lifted: The threat of ballistic missile use has been lifted across all regions.
High-Speed Target (Kharkiv): A high-speed target was reported in the Kharkiv region, traveling westward.
Increased "Shahed" Drone Activity: The potential use of the "Shatalovo" airfield in Smolensk region for drone launches is a serious development, potentially extending the range and frequency of attacks on Ukraine. Time of flight to Sumy Oblast is approximately two hours.
Geopolitical Developments
Trump's Peace Plan (Further Details): Additional reports confirm the plan's core elements: freezing the conflict with occupied territories in limbo, providing Ukraine with security guarantees, and threatening Russia with large-scale sanctions if they refuse to negotiate. NATO membership for Ukraine in the near future is considered unlikely. Keith Kellogg is expected to present the plan at the Munich Security Conference (February 14-16) and subsequently visit Ukraine.
US Vice President's Visit: The US Vice President will be traveling to France and Germany.
French Parliament Rejection: France rejected a motion for no-confidence in the government.
Baykar Expansion (Morocco): Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar has established a company in Morocco, "Atlas Defence," to service Bayraktar TB2 drones. This highlights the expanding global reach of Turkish drone technology and its potential role in regional conflicts. It also reflects a complicated relationship, as Baykar supplies drones to countries within the Sahel Confederation, with whom Russia is building military cooperation.
ECHR Ruling on LGBT "Propaganda" Fines: The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ruled that fines imposed by Russia on six activists for "LGBT propaganda" were illegal. The court ordered compensation, but Russia, having left the Council of Europe in 2022, is unlikely to comply. This highlights ongoing human rights concerns in Russia and its strained relationship with international institutions.
Azerbaijan Humanitarian Aid: Azerbaijan is providing $1 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, specifically for the purchase and delivery of electrical equipment manufactured in Azerbaijan. This continues Azerbaijan's pattern of providing humanitarian support to Ukraine, while refraining from direct military aid.
Israel leaves UN Human Rights Council: Israel's Foreign Ministry announced that it will leave the UN Human Rights Council.
Internal Russian Issues
Former Samara Mayor's Death: The former mayor of Samara, Viktor Tarkhov, and his wife were found shot dead. His granddaughter has been arrested on suspicion of their murder. This internal incident, while not directly related to the war, highlights potential instability and criminal activity within Russia.
Recruitment Issues, Violence and Desertion: A news report describes a case of a man who committed murder, joined the Wagner PMC to avoid prison, returned, and then attempted to murder his ex-partner. He is now seeking to rejoin the military to avoid prison again. This highlights the problematic practice of recruiting criminals into the Russian military and the potential for violence when they return to civilian life.
Military Operations
Kupyansk Direction (Confirmed Russian Advances, Details): Reports indicate continued Russian advances along the Oskil River, with a 1km advance south of Zapadnoye, increasing pressure on Kondrashovka. Russian forces have reportedly crossed the Oskil River near Topoli, establishing a bridgehead for a further offensive. Intense fighting is reported in Dvorichnaya, with Russian forces attempting to encircle smaller Ukrainian units. Artillery duels continue across the Oskil River. West of Lozova, Russian forces reportedly advanced 0.5km.
Drone Warfare (Various): The video shows drones destroying a Ukrainian control post in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Prisoner of War Update: A captured Ukrainian border guard from Sumy reports low morale and a desire for negotiations among Ukrainian border guards.
Ukrainian Special Forces Success (Unspecified Location): The "Artan" special unit of the GUR (Ukrainian military intelligence) has reportedly retaken territory that Ukrainian forces had been unable to recapture for two years. The operation involved coordinated actions by reconnaissance, assault, artillery, and drone units. The exact location is unspecified but is claimed to be in the south.
Ukrainian Attacks: Ukrainian forces destroyed a column of Russian MRAP MaxxPro vehicles in the Kursk region, using drones.
Updated Situation Summary
Drone Warfare Intensifies: The potential use of a new airfield in Russia for drone launches threatens to expand the scope and frequency of attacks.
Kupyansk Front: Russian advances continue around the Oskil River, with the establishment of a bridgehead posing a significant threat.
Geopolitical Maneuvering: Trump's peace plan and Azerbaijan's aid highlight continued diplomatic and political activity. Baykar's expansion signals growing Turkish influence in the drone market.
Internal Russian Issues: Reports of violence and criminal recruitment practices highlight internal challenges within Russia.
Ukrainian Special Forces Success: A successful operation by a Ukrainian special forces unit indicates continued Ukrainian capability to conduct offensive operations.
Report: Russia is winning the war, according to a report.
The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with ongoing fighting, increased drone activity, and significant geopolitical developments. The situation is deteriorating, as Russian forces make advances and Ukrainian forces are facing setbacks. Russian control zones are expanding. The confirmed use of a new airfield for potential drone launches in Russia and the ongoing Russian advances in the Kharkiv region represent serious escalations. The geopolitical developments, including Trump's peace plan and the ECHR ruling, add further layers of complexity.
