Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 09:38 UTC

Major Updates

Drone Warfare

• Confirmed Drone Attack on Oil Depot in Krasnodar Krai, Russia: A drone attack targeted the "Albashnafta" oil depot in Novominskaya, Kanevsky district, causing a fire. The fire was localized and subsequently extinguished, with no reported casualties. The Russian Ministry of Defense did not report any downed drones over the Krasnodar Krai. Video evidence of the attack was released, showing a large fire engulfing fuel or oil storage tanks in a cold climate with snow on the ground, suggesting a deliberate strike aimed at disrupting fuel supply and logistics. The Ukrainian head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense confirmed that the attack was carried out by Ukrainian forces. The head of the Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD) confirmed the strike on the "Albashneft" oil depot in the Krasnodar region. He noted that the oil depot belongs to an oil refinery capable of processing up to 320 thousand tons of oil per year. "The main products are straight-run gasoline, diesel fuel, and fuel oil. It is supplied to the Russian armed forces," added Andrii Kovalenko, the head of the CCD.

• Overnight Drone Attacks: Four Ukrainian drones were destroyed overnight, two in the Kursk region and two in the Belgorod region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.

• Drone Attacks in Bryansk Region: A Ukrainian drone attacked the village of Lomakovka, resulting in minor shrapnel wounds to two residents. Drone attacks were also reported in Novy Ropsk, injuring a civilian, and in Khinel.

• Drone Attacks in Belgorod Region: The villages of Mokraya Orlovka, Rozhdestvenka, Dvurechnoye, Urazovo, Berezovka, Grafovka, Murom, Novaya Tavolzhanka, and Balki came under drone attacks.

• Drone Attacks in Kharkiv: Russian forces attacked Kharkiv overnight. An administrative building in the Saltovsky district was hit, causing a fire. A nearby apartment building had its windows blown out, and a gas station was damaged. Another hit was reported in the Osnovyansky district, also causing a fire. One person suffered an acute stress reaction. The roof of a non-residential building was damaged and caught fire. The roof of another non-residential building was also partially destroyed and caught fire, and the windows of seven buildings of an educational institution were damaged.

• Ukrainian Air Force Reports on Drone Threats: The Ukrainian Air Force reported on several drone threats across multiple regions overnight, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, Starokonstantinov, Bereznegovatoye, Pavlograd, Balakleya, Zlatopol, Zhytomyr, Fastov, Boyarka, Mirgorod, Priluki, Nezhin, Vylkove, Izmail, and Odesa. The threats were later called off. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast.

• Specific Drone Movements: Detailed reports of drone movements were provided, including specific locations and directions of travel, highlighting the complexity of tracking and intercepting drone attacks.

• Finnish Drone: Finnish military to test Insta's "Steel Eagle" drone in combat, designed to destroy enemy manpower with a tungsten ball charge. Ukrainian forces have used similar drones before. Concerns raised about potential use against civilians.

• Cherkasy Region: Ukrainian air defenses shot down five Russian drones overnight in the Cherkasy region, with no casualties or damage to infrastructure reported.

• Kirovohrad Region: Drone debris damaged four residential buildings, four outbuildings, a car, and fences. A fire broke out in one of the houses but was extinguished. No casualties were reported.

• Drone Warfare Technology: Russian forces are reportedly destroying Ukrainian drones on the Kherson direction. A mobile fire group reportedly shot down a Shahed drone in the Sumy direction. Activity of UAVs was observed in the Sumy region, air defense was working. Video evidence shows Russian forces using "Molniya" and "VT-40" FPV drones against Ukrainian positions in the Kupiansk direction. The attacks are carried out by the 375th Separate Anti-Tank Artillery Battalion of the 1st Guards Tank Army. The video depicts a heavily cratered landscape, indicating intense artillery or aerial bombardment. Multiple precision strikes are observed, targeting trenches, a roadway, and a makeshift structure. The recurring pattern of explosions suggests the use of similar ammunition throughout. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of drone attacks in the Kharkiv region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of drones in the Kharkiv area and warns of possible anti-aircraft defense activity. Russian scouts reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian Starlink station in the Orikhiv direction using an attack drone. Pilots of the BSS 59 OShBr "Predators of Heights" disrupted the planned delivery of milk to the Russian Armed Forces. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces deploying 350 FPV drones to various units.

• Ukrainian Drone Operators: Ukrainian drone operators report the destruction of 4,387 enemy targets in one month, including 1,298 enemy soldiers, 66 tanks, 174 armored combat vehicles, 87 artillery systems, 17 MLRS, 9 EW systems, 506 vehicles, and 205 fortified positions. 100 new drone crews will be trained by the end of March. Video evidence shows Ukrainian operators deploying a new drone weapon.

• Extensive Drone Usage: Overnight, Russia launched 104 drones and two "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles at Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 57 drones, while 42 drone decoys were "lost on location" without causing damage.

• Attacks on Oil Refineries: Ukraine has targeted over two-thirds of Russia's 30 largest oil refineries in the past month, aiming to cripple the Russian economy. This campaign has been ongoing for 1 year and 4 months, with drone strikes occurring within 48 hours of launch.

• Successful Test of Ukrainian Missile: A video purportedly shows a successful test of a Ukrainian cruise missile at a testing ground in Krasnodar Krai, Russia.

• Drone Attack on Astrakhan Gas Plant: A drone attack on the Astrakhan gas processing plant (GPZ) has led to a gas cloud covering the region. The governor, Igor Babushkin, claims the cloud is due to a gas release to initiate a flaring process and poses no threat. After the attack, at least 90 complaints about the smell of gas were recorded in Astrakhan and the village of Rastopulovka, Privolzhsky district.

• Air Defenses Shoot Down 5 Drones in Sumy: Ukrainian border guards reportedly shot down 4 Zala drones and 1 Supercam drone in the Sumy region.

• Continued Drone Activity (Feb 5, 00:38 UTC): Reports of drone movements across Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Sumy, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts.

• Drone Debris in Kuban: Debris from a drone fell on a tank with oil residues in Kuban, causing a fire. No casualties reported.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks in Kharkiv: See details in the Drone Warfare section above.
• Military Actions: On the Lyptsi direction, the enemy is reportedly increasing its grouping for a potential counteroffensive. Personnel (possibly from the 92nd Assault Brigade), armored vehicles, and air defense systems with a new tactical sign ("arrow in a square") have been transferred from Chuhuiv.
• Ukrainian Counterattack near Lyptsi: Ukrainian forces are unsuccessfully attempting to counterattack near Lyptsi, according to the head of the VGA region, Vitaly Ganchev.
• Advance near Urazovo: Russian forces have advanced near Urazovo, occupying a new section of territory near Topoli, between Urazovo in the Valuysky district of Belgorod and Dvurechnoye in the Kupyansk direction of Kharkiv. The advance is reported to be up to 1 km deep and up to 3 km wide.
• North of Kupiansk: On the right bank of the Oskil River, Russian forces are advancing in Zapadnoe and south of the river on a section up to 6.12 km wide and up to 1.7 km deep. They have also reportedly forded the Oskil southwest and south of Topoli on a section up to 2.2 km wide and up to 420 meters deep.
• Ukrainian Positions Restored near Nadiivka: Ukrainian forces have reportedly restored positions near Nadiivka.
• Enemy Advances near Zapadne, Kindrashivka, and Topoliv: Enemy forces are reported to have advanced near these locations, according to DeepState. ISW also reports enemy advances near Kupyansk.
• Russian Advance near Dvorichna: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna.
• Russian Advance near Dvorichna: Russian forces have reportedly liberated Dvorichna.
• Vovchansk: Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack. Clashes were reported near Vovchansk.
• Explosions in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire was reported at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack.
• Ukrainian Air Force Reports: The Ukrainian Air Force reported launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in the north of the region. They also report a high-speed target moving from Sumy Oblast towards Poltava Oblast.
• Transport of Ukrainian Forces: Transport of Ukrainian forces is under attack by drones near Vovchansk.
• Ukrainian Forces Repel Attacks: Ukrainian forces repelled two Russian attacks near Hatyshche.
• Image Analysis: The image captures a Ukrainian soldier in a contested area, likely on the frontlines, indicated by a damaged road sign marked with a red line and damaged vehicles nearby. The scene suggests recent or ongoing fighting in the region, with strategic importance attached to the location for control and logistics.
• Guided Aerial Missiles: Three guided aerial missiles are reported to be targeting Chuhuiv/Balakliia. Four missiles were launched, with two targeting Chuhuiv and two targeting Balakliia. These missiles have reportedly moved on towards Zlatopil in Kharkiv Oblast.
• Drone Attack on Civilian Enterprise: A drone attack targeted a civilian enterprise in the Novobavarskyi district, causing a large fire.
• Drone Attacks in Other Areas: In the Rohanska community, a drone attack destroyed a private house and garage, injuring 2 people. In Shestakove, a drone attack caused a fire in a destroyed private house, with no reported casualties.
• Drone Attack on Civilian Enterprise: A drone attack on a civilian enterprise in the Slobidskyi district caused a major fire.
• Casualties in Lyubotin: In Lyubotin, a man and a woman were injured due to a drone attack.
• Drone Strike on Temporary Deployment Point: In Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast, a Russian drone strike hit a temporary deployment point of Ukrainian forces disguised as a civilian building, the Zolochiv Children's and Youth Sports School. The attack destroyed the roof and interior of the building, as well as two trucks and one armored vehicle. An ammunition depot was also destroyed, including at least 300 crates of 5.56x45mm and 40mm grenade launcher rounds.
• Explosion in Kharkiv (Feb 5, 00:38 UTC): An explosion was reported in Kharkiv.

Donetsk Region

• Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues on the western outskirts of the city. Enemy resources acknowledge the advance of Russian troops. Russian forces have taken control of the territory of the first workshop of the refractory plant and are advancing towards the "Shevchenko" area. Russian forces are completing the cleanup of the Severnyi microdistrict and are destroying Ukrainian forces in the Shevchenko microdistrict. Russian units also took positions in the buildings south of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant and advanced in the area of the Dolgoe-II tract south of the Novyi microdistrict. Russian forces have reportedly cleared another block in the center of Chasiv Yar near the high-rise buildings. In the northern part of Chasiv Yar, fighting is ongoing for the remaining part of the Novosjeverny microdistrict. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are concentrating forces in the area of Dniprovska Street in the Shevchenko microdistrict, trying to hold the south of the city. Russian troops are pushing the Ukrainian defenses south of Chasiv Yar. A sniper pair from the 3rd Airborne Battalion of the 98th Airborne Division reportedly eliminated a "Baba Yaga" in Chasiv Yar. UAV operators of the 1065th Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division destroyed an enemy dugout near Chasiv Yar. Paratroopers of the 98th Airborne Division destroyed a BMP-1 with infantry of the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Chasiv Yar.
• Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk): Fighting is taking place on the northern outskirts of the city near the "Fomikha" mine's spoil tip and near the "Toretska" mine.
• Konstantinopil Direction: Russian forces are developing success in Dachnoe.
• Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) Direction: The advance of Russian troops towards the Dnipropetrovsk region has led some residents to prepare basements for living during anticipated hostilities. They are stocking up on canned goods and other long-life provisions. Earlier, Ukrainian authorities announced an evacuation in some frontline settlements of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
• Civilian Casualties in Horlivka: Ten civilians were wounded by Ukrainian shelling in Horlivka, Donetsk People's Republic. The enemy used artillery against the "Komsomolets" market and drones against city buses, garbage trucks, and cars.
• Ivano-Daryivka: Russian assault units entered the settlement and engaged Ukrainian forces.
• Krasnoarmiisk Direction: Fierce fighting is reported on the Zverevo-Chushkilino-Lysovka line, where Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold defensive positions, especially on the approaches to Krasnoarmiisk. Russian forces have taken fire control of a section leading to the Selidovo-Krasnoarmiisk highway, which supplies the Ukrainian garrison in the area. Positional fighting is reported in Lysovka, with Ukrainian forces attempting to attack.
• Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 2 kilometers of Myrnohrad and advancing towards Pokrovsk, blocking Ukrainian supply lines.
• Kramatorsk Direction: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, injuring 13 people, including two children. One person was killed in Ivanopil, and another was wounded in Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian forces repelled two Russian attacks in this direction.
• Kurakhove: Heavy fighting is reported in the eastern part of Andriivka. West of Kurakhove, Russian troops are advancing in the Dachne and Andriivka areas, with half of the Dachne settlement cleared.
• Siversk - Verkhnokamyanske: Active combat operations continue near Siversk. Russian forces launched an attack towards Verkhnokamyanske, resulting in troops landing in the central part of the settlement. They reportedly advanced 1.5 km in the Siversk direction and occupied new positions in Verkhnokamyanske.
• Vuhledar: Russian sappers discovered mines made with 3D printers, indicating a new development in mine warfare.
• Sukhi Yaly River: Russian artillerymen are targeting Ukrainian forces. Army aviation destroyed a bridge across the Sukhi Yaly River near Konstantinopol.
• Dzerzhynsk Direction: Russian forces continue to increase their firepower near Dzerzhynsk and are expanding their control towards Shcherbynivka.
• Novopavlivsk Direction: One Russian attack was reported in the direction of Kostyantynopil.
• Huliaipole Direction: Russian aviation targeted Novopil.
• Orikhiv Direction: One combat engagement is reported near Kamyanske.
• Dachne: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying Ukrainian positions near Dachne with a precise strike, reportedly killing several Ukrainian soldiers.
• Sribne: Russian forces report they have taken the settlement and are completing a clear-out operation. Ukrainian forces confirm that heavy fighting continues in the area.
• Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed under complete Russian control. Russian forces are advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• South Donetsk Direction: Russian assault units are advancing north and west of Velyka Novosilka, capturing a 2km deep and 1.5km wide area.
• Pokrovsk Direction: Ukrainian forces stopped 35 offensive actions in the areas of Kalynove, Myroliubivka, Promin, Kotlyne, Udachne, Uspenivka, Andriivka, and Dachne.

Kursk Region

• Russian forces of the "North" troop grouping are fighting to liberate Sverdlykove, as well as in the forest belts of the Sudzhansky district and on the approaches to Malaya Loknya.
• A Ukrainian assault force was destroyed during an attempted landing near Tetkino.
• Reports of significant North Korean casualties. South Korea's intelligence confirms the withdrawal of North Korean troops from the Kursk region due to heavy losses. Approximately 300 North Korean soldiers were reportedly killed and 2,700 wounded out of an estimated 11,000 deployed. Ukrainian military reports indicate that North Korean troops have not been participating in combat operations in Kursk since mid-January. The National Intelligence Service of South Korea has also confirmed this.
• Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
• Russian forces are advancing, with battles near Sverdlykove and nearby forested areas.
• Reports indicate that contractors have allegedly embezzled over 3 billion rubles allocated for the construction of fortifications.
• The landing attempt of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on two armored personnel carriers was thwarted in Makhnovka.
• Battles are ongoing near Pohrebky.
• Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults in the Kursk region.
• The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
• Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov inspected the Yug Group of Forces.
• Russian forces are continuing to advance in the region of Sverdlikovo and north of Guevo.
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces claim to have destroyed a command post of the "Kursk" troop grouping of the Russian Armed Forces in Rylsk, Kursk region.
• Ukrainian forces from the 73rd Naval Special Operations Center are conducting operations in the Kursk region, collecting data on Russian and North Korean troops.
• Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the Kursk region for 100 days.
• Video shows the work of drone operators from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade in the Kursk region, with reports of the capture and clearing of two strongholds south of Nikolaevo-Daryino.
• Video shows a Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces destroying a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
• A Russian drone targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer in Makhnovka, Kursk region.
• Russian troops are using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
• A Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeted a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region.
• An FPV drone successfully destroyed a Ukrainian T-72M1 tank in the Kursk border area.
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Su-34 bomber.
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian BMP with an FPV drone in the Kursk border area.
• Russian forces are destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
• Russian airborne forces are destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Makhnovka.
• The acting governor of the Kursk region met with refugees from areas occupied by Ukrainian forces.
• The death of the Deputy Governor of Primorsky Krai, Sergei Efremov, in the Kursk region has been confirmed.
• Ukrainian forces repelled 12 attacks in the Kursk direction. Five engagements are ongoing.
• The use of FPV drones by Ukrainian forces has significantly increased along the logistical routes of Russian troops in the Makhnovka direction.
• Russian forces report that the enemy grouping in the Kursk direction has been completely defeated. The remnants of the enemy's forces have been pushed back across the border. The enemy has reportedly lost 1,653 troops, 3 tanks, 10 armored vehicles, 23 vehicles, 6 artillery pieces, and 2 MLRS.
• An MMA fighter is training paratroopers in the Kursk direction.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukraine is closer to peace than ever before and claimed that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian command post in the Kursk region, killing dozens of Russian officers and some North Korean soldiers.
• Sudzha: Four people were killed and 90 injured due to a Ukrainian attack on a boarding school in Sudzha, Kursk region. The death toll has risen to six. Rescue operations at the destroyed boarding school are being hampered by continuous Russian drone attacks. A wounded woman is reportedly trapped under the rubble.
• Kursk Region: Five Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russian forces in the region. An administration building in the Belovsky district was attacked by Ukrainian forces, causing damage but no casualties. An evacuation group of the "Shadow" special forces unit of the Volunteer Corps rescued four wounded soldiers in the region despite a mined road.

Luhansk Region

• Siversk Direction: Fighting is ongoing in Verkhnekamenskoye and to the northeast of the village.
• Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, Zakhidne, and Ivanivka, moving towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River.
• Hrekivka Direction: Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with a 400m advance.
• Kupiansk: Russian forces have approached the northern outskirts of Kupiansk, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are deploying reinforcements.
• Bohuslavka: Battles have been initiated.
• Novoyehorivka: An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
• Kupyansk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 18 Russian attacks near Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Stepova Novoselivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, and Lozova.
• Lyman Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled eight Russian attacks near Novoiehorivka, Novoliubivka, Makiivka, Yampolivka, and Serebrianka.

Zaporizhzhia Region

• An air raid alert has been declared and later lifted, then declared again and canceled.
• At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region.
• Russia attacked the region 401 times overnight.
• Russian forces reportedly destroyed a group of foreign mercenaries near Orikhiv.
• Two people were injured in shelling in Zaporizhzhia and the Zaporizhzhia region.
• One combat engagement near Kamyanske.
• Pokrovsk Direction: A 62-year-old woman was wounded as a result of a Russian attack.

Other Regions

• Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: The aggressor attacked Nikopolshchyna almost until midnight, using artillery and kamikaze drones. The attacks were directed at the district center, Pokrovska, and Chervonogrigorivska communities. No one was injured. Defenders of the sky destroyed an enemy drone in the region yesterday evening.
• Kryvyi Rih: The situation is under control. No shelling was recorded in the Kryvyi Rih district. In the Nikopol district, the enemy attacked Nikopol, Pokrovska, and Chervonogrigorivska communities with heavy artillery and kamikaze drones. No casualties were reported. Air defense was operating in the region in the evening, and one enemy drone was shot down.
• Kherson: One person was killed and eight were injured in Russian shelling of the Kherson region. Social infrastructure, farm buildings, and residential areas were damaged, including 10 houses. Five people, including two children, were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on a minibus in Kherson. Four people were injured in a Russian drone attack on Kherson in the morning. Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed over 10 boats and personnel near Hola Prystan.
• Rivne Region: SBU detains two terrorists in Rivne region. A complex of appropriate investigative and counter-terrorist actions is currently underway.
• Poltava Region: There are reports of fires at gas facilities in the region following a nighttime missile strike. Specifically, the Yablunivske gas processing plant and the Yarivka gas field near Sencha were reportedly hit. An earthquake in the region with a magnitude of 3.7 and a depth of 3 km was also reported. The death toll from the Russian attack on Poltava has risen to 14, with 20 injured, including four children.
• Astrakhan: A gas cloud reportedly covered the city of Astrakhan following a drone attack on the gas processing plant. The governor, Igor Babushkin, claims the cloud is due to a gas release to initiate flaring and poses no threat.

Military and Political Developments

• Ukrainian Air Force Activity: Reports of enemy tactical aviation activity on the eastern front. There is a threat of the use of aerial weapons. Launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast are reported. Activity of enemy tactical aviation is reported on the south-eastern and north-eastern directions. Launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia are reported. An OTRK "Iskander-M" launched a missile strike on a large concentration of Ukrainian manpower and equipment near Stetskovka, Sumy region, destroying a munitions depot, 23 armored fighting vehicles, 15 all-terrain vehicles, 10 trucks, and up to 130 Ukrainian soldiers.
• Geopolitical Developments:
  • The US is exiting the UN Human Rights Council and ceasing funding for certain UN structures.
  • US President Donald Trump stated that the US is ready to take control of the Gaza Strip and turn it into a "Middle Eastern Riviera."
  • US President Donald Trump stated that the US is conducting very constructive negotiations regarding Ukraine and that he will do everything to stop the war.
  • Trump called the negotiations with Ukraine and Russia constructive and hopes that "the situation will change dramatically soon." He compared the destruction in Ukraine to that in Gaza and expressed a desire for the killing of young people on both sides to stop.
  • There is concern in Europe about a potential secret agreement between Trump and Putin regarding Ukraine.
  • Mark Rutte is seen as a potential hope for Ukraine in negotiations, while the EU leadership is reportedly viewed negatively by Trump.
  • The Baltic states, Northern Europe, and Great Britain remain strong allies of Ukraine but are struggling to influence the global agenda.
  • Europe is reportedly seeking its place in a potential peace settlement in Ukraine.
  • British Foreign Secretary David Lammy has arrived in Ukraine. He will announce £55 million in financial aid for Ukraine, including support for grain supplies to Syria, energy projects, business recovery, and community services.
  • The US has frozen foreign aid to review its appropriateness in the context of US national interests, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He emphasized that foreign aid is not charity but a tool to advance US interests.
  • Turkish Foreign Minister states that initiatives regarding Ukraine might be expected before June, but a serious consensus is needed.
• Casualty Reports:
  • The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported an estimated 1,140 Russian casualties in the past day, along with the destruction of 9 tanks, 12 armored fighting vehicles, and 52 artillery systems.
  • The Ukrainian Armed Forces have reportedly lost over 240 troops and two ammunition depots in the Kursk region in the past 24 hours. Overall losses are reported to exceed 56,000.
• Statements from Officials: Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that he is ready to negotiate with Russian dictator Putin if it is the only way to peace. Zelensky gave an interview to British journalist Piers Morgan, stating that Ukraine is in a better position than at the start of the war, but may lose territory without continued US aid. He also mentioned elections will be announced when the martial law ends, claimed Russian losses are 300-350 thousand killed and 600-700 thousand wounded, while Ukrainian losses are 45,100 killed and 390 thousand wounded. He stated that there cannot be compromises on state sovereignty, but there can be on the timing of agreements.
• Drone Attack on Police in Antonivka: Russians attacked police officers with a drone in Antonivka, Kherson region. Four people were injured, and three police officers were injured during their evacuation.

Other

• Latvia Begins Production of Patria 6x6 APCs for Ukraine: The Ukrainian Embassy in Latvia announced that Latvia has begun producing the first batch of Patria 6x6 armored personnel carriers (APCs) for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The vehicles are being produced at the "Defence Partnership Latvia" plant in Valmiera, with components manufactured in several Latvian cities. The plant is expected to produce 160 units per year. The Patria 6x6 is a modular vehicle with a Scania diesel engine, automatic transmission, and a capacity for 10 soldiers. It has a range of over 700 km and a top speed of 100 km/h. The armor meets STANAG 4569 standards.
• Digital Ruble: The Russian State Duma considers the digital ruble a convenient tool for long-term savings, citing its traceability as a deterrent to fraud.
• Fake QR Codes in Moscow: 150 fake QR codes for apartment building chats were used to hack "Gosuslugi" accounts in Moscow in January.
• Space Launch: A Soyuz-2.1v rocket carrying spacecraft for the Russian Ministry of Defense was launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome. Combat crews of the Russian Aerospace Forces successfully launched a Soyuz-2.1v light-class carrier rocket with spacecraft in the interests of the Russian Defence Ministry from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in Arkhangelsk region.
• EU: Macron and Scholz express readiness to respond to Trump's tariffs with similar measures if US President Donald Trump imposes them on European goods.
• EU: European Commission warns of decisive retaliatory action if Trump imposes new tariffs on the EU.
• Disease Outbreak in Murmansk: 33 residents of a nursing home in Murmansk were hospitalized with an intestinal infection. The regional Ministry of Health claims that even those with mild symptoms were hospitalized, and the patients' condition is stable. The cause of the infection is not reported. A social media post from the nursing home mentioned a ban on visits and food deliveries due to the "current sanitary-epidemiological situation." Human rights activist Violetta Grudina noted that the nursing home has been involved in scandals related to inhumane treatment of residents and corruption.
• Medical Graduates in Russia: The Russian Ministry of Health is preparing a bill that would require medical school and college graduates who studied on a budget to work for two to three years in clinics operating under the compulsory medical insurance system. Graduates who refuse would have to pay a fine twice the cost of their education, about 2.5 million rubles.
• Mass Inspection of Tanker Fleet in Russia: The Russian Ministry of Transport has announced a mass inspection of the tanker fleet, involving about 500 companies, following the sinking of two tankers in the Kerch Strait in December 2024.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and complex. Intense fighting continues to be concentrated in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kursk regions.

Key Developments:

• Donetsk Region: Russian forces continue to make incremental advances, particularly near Urazovo, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and in the Konstantinopil direction. The advance towards the Dnipropetrovsk region from Pokrovsk is causing significant concern among residents, with reports of people preparing basements for prolonged stays.
• Kharkiv Region: Russian forces are advancing in several areas, notably near Urazovo and Kupiansk. They have reportedly forded the Oskil River in multiple locations, expanding their foothold. Drone attacks continue to be a significant feature of the fighting in this region.
• Kursk Region: Fighting continues, with reports of significant North Korean casualties and the withdrawal of North Korean troops. The situation remains tense, with ongoing battles and claims of Ukrainian forces attempting to hold their positions for 100 days. Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled 12 Russian attacks in the region.
• Drone Warfare: Drone warfare remains a dominant aspect of the conflict, with a confirmed attack on an oil depot in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, and ongoing drone activity across multiple regions in Ukraine, including Kirovohrad and Kharkiv. The use of drones in Kharkiv overnight resulted in damage to civilian infrastructure and one reported stress-related injury. Ukrainian forces are increasingly using drones to target Russian infrastructure, with over two-thirds of Russia's 30 largest oil refineries reportedly attacked in the past month.
• Geopolitical Developments: The US exit from the UN Human Rights Council and statements from US President Donald Trump regarding potential US involvement in Gaza add complexity to the international landscape. Trump's comments about "constructive negotiations" regarding Ukraine and his comparison of the destruction there to Gaza suggest a potential shift in US policy, although the specifics remain unclear. There is growing concern in Europe about a potential secret deal between Trump and Putin regarding Ukraine. The US has also frozen foreign aid for review, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasizing that aid must advance US national interests.
• Humanitarian Situation: The reported injuries from drone attacks in Kherson and damage to civilian infrastructure in Kirovohrad highlight the ongoing humanitarian cost of the conflict. The outbreak of an intestinal infection in a