Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 04:38 UTC

Major Updates

Drone Warfare

• Continued Drone Activity in Ukraine:
  • A drone was reported flying near Bila Tserkva towards Fastiv.
  • A drone crossed from Cherkasy Oblast into Vinnytsia Oblast.
  • Four new drones were detected in the Sumy district.
  • "Shahed" drones were reported in Kirovohrad Oblast, heading towards Kropyvnytskyi.
  • "Shahed" drones were reported in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, heading towards Starokostiantyniv.
  • "Shahed" drones were reported in Kyiv Oblast near Bila Tserkva, with a southwesterly course.
  • New "Shahed" drones were reported in Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast.
  • Kyiv Oblast was under threat of drone attacks, with potential air defense activity.
  • Khmelnytskyi Oblast is now under threat of drone attacks.
• Drone Attack in Krasnodar Krai, Russia:
  • An attack in Novominskaya, Kanevsky district, caused a fire in a reservoir containing residual petroleum products. The target was confirmed to be an oil depot belonging to "Albashnafta".
  • The fire, assigned a second rank of complexity, is localized, with no reported casualties.
  • 55 personnel and 19 units are involved in firefighting.
  • The plant's capacity allows for processing up to 320,000 tons of hydrocarbon raw materials annually.
• Drone Operations in Kursk Region:
  • Russian forces are using FPV drones with fiber optic cables to target Ukrainian infantry in the Kursk region.
  • Artillerymen of the 1427th Regiment of the "North" group are destroying enemy strongholds in the forested areas of the Kursk region.
• Drone Attack in Kharkiv:
  • Russian forces attacked Kharkiv overnight, causing fires.
  • An administrative building in the Saltovsky district was hit, causing a fire. A nearby apartment building had its windows blown out, and a gas station was damaged.
  • Another hit was reported in the Osnovyansky district, also causing a fire.
  • Information on casualties is not yet available.
• Overnight Drone Attacks: Four Ukrainian drones were destroyed overnight, two in the Kursk region and two in the Belgorod region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Kharkiv Region

• Second Drone Strike in Kharkiv:
  • A second drone hit the Osnovyanskyi district, causing a fire. Details are being assessed.
• Military Actions:
  • On the Lyptsi direction, the enemy is reportedly increasing its grouping for a potential counteroffensive. Personnel (possibly from the 92nd Assault Brigade), armored vehicles, and air defense systems with a new tactical sign ("arrow in a square") have been transferred from Chuhuiv.
  • North of Kupiansk on the right bank of the Oskil River, Russian forces are expanding their foothold near Zapadnoe.
  • Russian forces are putting pressure near Kupyansk, and there may be an "operational pause" in the Kursk direction.
• Increased Shelling near Kupiansk: Ukrainian forces are intensifying shelling of civilian areas near Kupiansk as Russian forces advance.

Donetsk Region

• Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues on the western outskirts of the city. Enemy resources acknowledge the advance of Russian troops.
  • Artillerymen of the 98th Airborne Division destroyed a Ukrainian temporary deployment point near Chasiv Yar.
  • A BM-21 "Grad" MLRS crew of the 98th Airborne Division struck Ukrainian forces in Chasiv Yar.
• Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk): Fighting is taking place on the northern outskirts of the city near the "Fomikha" mine's spoil tip and near the "Toretska" mine.
• Konstantinopil Direction: Russian forces are developing success in Dachnoe.
• Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) Direction: The advance of Russian troops towards the Dnipropetrovsk region has led some residents to prepare basements for living during anticipated hostilities. They are stocking up on canned goods and other long-life provisions. Earlier, Ukrainian authorities announced an evacuation in some frontline settlements of the Dnipropetrovsk region.

Kursk Region

• Russian forces of the "North" troop grouping are fighting to liberate Sverdlykove, as well as in the forest belts of the Sudzhansky district and on the approaches to Malaya Loknya.
• There are claims from a Kremlin-affiliated "war correspondent" that Russian forces are taking a "temporary operational pause" in the Kursk direction. South Korean intelligence confirms that the North Korean contingent has not been fighting in the Kursk region since mid-January due to heavy losses. The ISW suggests that the "pause" of North Korean troops in combat operations may have influenced the alleged Russian "temporary operational pause" in Kursk.

Military and Political Developments

• Ukrainian Air Force Activity:
  • Reports of enemy tactical aviation activity on the eastern front.
  • Threat of the use of aerial weapons.
  • Launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast are reported.
• Capture of Armored Vehicle:
  • Russian forces captured a Mastiff armored personnel carrier on the South Donetsk direction.
• Geopolitical Developments:
  • Donald Trump stated that the US is considering long-term ownership of the Gaza Strip for greater stability in the Middle East. He claims the US will take control of the Gaza Strip and clear the area, possibly sending US troops "to ensure security." He suggests relocating the Palestinian population to Jordan and Egypt, with 2 million people potentially moving to other countries. Trump also aims to transform the Gaza Strip into a "Riviera of the Middle East," where Palestinians and people from around the world could live. He announced an upcoming trip to Gaza, Israel, and Saudi Arabia without specifying dates. The US will announce its position on the ownership of the West Bank in the coming weeks.
  • Trump also claimed to be having "very good talks" regarding the conflict in Ukraine, although Russia has not confirmed this.
  • Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, had a conversation with Trump's National Security Advisor, Keith Kellogg, discussing the situation on the battlefield, mobilization, and key challenges for Ukraine. They also discussed organizing a personal contact between Trump and Zelensky in the near future.
  • A new trade confrontation between the US and China is disadvantageous for all countries, including Russia, and could affect logistics chains worldwide, according to a Russian senator.
  • Reuters reports that the new leader of Syria has proposed to Erdogan the placement of Turkish military bases in the country.
• Russian Military Fortifications: The enemy notes that during the construction of hangars for aircraft, ammunition and drone storage facilities, Russian troops have improved construction methods to increase their resistance to attacks. Satellite images show the construction of fortified hangars at one of the Russian airfields.
• Russian Military Advance near Zelenyi Hai: Russian forces have captured a Ukrainian stronghold near Zelenyi Hai, from which the enemy was controlling the settlement, according to military expert Andrey Marochko.
• Ukrainian Military Reorganization: Commander Syrsky has ordered the transfer of 50,000 Ukrainian military personnel from other branches to the infantry for rotation.

Other

• Cybersecurity and Fraud:
  • The Khabarovsk Krai Police Department released images warning about online fraud schemes, particularly those involving bank cards and investment scams. These warnings are relevant in the context of military operations due to potential economic instability, sanctions evasion, and the use of illicit funds for cyber warfare.
  • In January, around 150 fake QR codes, supposedly for accessing building chat rooms, were found in Moscow. Similar codes were also found in Tver, Kaluga, and Yaroslavl.
• Civilian Casualties in Horlivka: Ten civilians were wounded by Ukrainian shelling in Horlivka, Donetsk People's Republic. The enemy used artillery against the "Komsomolets" market and drones against city buses, garbage trucks, and cars.
• Drone Attacks in Bryansk Region: A Ukrainian drone attacked the village of Lomakovka in the Starodubsky municipal district, resulting in minor shrapnel wounds to two residents. Drone attacks were also reported in the village of Novy Ropsk, Klimovsky district, injuring a civilian, and in the village of Khinel, Sevsky district.
• Drone Attacks in Belgorod Region: The villages of Mokraya Orlovka and Rozhdestvenka in the Grayvoronsky district, Dvurechnoye and Urazovo in the Valuysky district, Berezovka in the Borisovsky district, Grafovka in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, and Murom, Novaya Tavolzhanka, and Balki in the Shebekinsky district came under drone attacks.
• CIA Layoffs: The CIA has offered its employees eight months' salary to resign.
• Russian Tourism: In 2024, Russians made 6.3 million trips to Turkey, 5.9 million to Abkhazia, 2.81 million to Kazakhstan, 1.99 million to the UAE, and 1.9 million to China. Total foreign trips amounted to 29.2 million.
• Finland's Position on Mercenaries: The Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has posted information for citizens wishing to go to Ukraine as mercenaries. Finland supports Ukraine but does not send or encourage anyone to participate in hostilities. The ministry does not recommend voluntary activities but provides assistance to Finns in Ukraine in accordance with the law on consular services when possible. The ministry warns that foreigners usually sign a three-year contract with the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which is almost impossible to terminate, and Finland cannot help with this. Further training does not meet Finnish standards. In case of injury, the responsibility for assistance lies with the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and medical evacuation is not carried out even at the expense of the wounded. Treatment takes place entirely in Ukraine, whose healthcare system is overloaded due to the fighting. If a wounded volunteer returns to Finland, their treatment needs will not be prioritized over other citizens. The ministry also warns about the long time it may take to identify the deceased. If the body cannot be removed from the battlefield, the deceased is considered missing even with witnesses and video recordings; the status changes only after the remains are returned and identified. By the end of 2024, about a dozen Finnish volunteers had died or gone missing in battles.
• Reasons for Work Absences: A survey shows that traffic jams are the most common reason for lateness to work among 28% of Russians. 13% admit to oversleeping, 10% blame public transport issues, 6% have problems with alarm clocks, and 5% cite family issues.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains characterized by persistent and widespread drone activity. New reports indicate drone movements across multiple regions, with a new threat emerging in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. The continued drone attacks, particularly the strike on the oil depot in Krasnodar Krai and the threat to Kyiv and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, highlight the ongoing threat to critical infrastructure and the potential for escalation. The use of fiber optic FPV drones by Russian forces in the Kursk region represents a technological advancement aimed at enhancing precision and overcoming electronic countermeasures. The new drone attack in Kharkiv, resulting in fires and damage to civilian infrastructure, further emphasizes the vulnerability of urban centers. The report of increased shelling by Ukrainian forces near Kupiansk indicates a response to Russian advances in the area. The destruction of enemy strongholds by Russian artillerymen in the Kursk region, coupled with reports of a possible "operational pause," suggests a complex and evolving situation on that front. The confirmation from South Korean intelligence that the North Korean contingent has not been fighting in the Kursk region since mid-January due to heavy losses adds another layer of complexity, potentially impacting Russian operational capabilities in the area.

In Russia, the drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai, now confirmed to be targeting the "Albashnafta" oil depot, signifies a continued effort to disrupt Russian infrastructure and logistics. The successful strike, despite Russian claims of interception, underscores the challenges faced by Russian air defenses in countering the drone threat. The reports of Russian forces improving the fortification of aircraft hangars indicate an awareness of this vulnerability and an attempt to mitigate the threat. The destruction of four Ukrainian drones overnight, as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense, demonstrates the ongoing efforts to counter aerial threats.

The reported activity of the Ukrainian Air Force, including the threat of aerial weapons and the use of guided aerial bombs in Donetsk Oblast, suggests an escalation in aerial warfare. This, combined with the ongoing drone attacks, indicates a complex and multifaceted aerial conflict.

The capture of the Mastiff armored personnel carrier by Russian forces on the South Donetsk direction is a tactical success for Russia and may provide valuable intelligence. The use of advanced drone technology, as reported in the Kursk region, demonstrates an evolving battlefield where technological superiority plays a crucial role. The reported capture of a Ukrainian stronghold near Zelenyi Hai by Russian forces indicates continued offensive operations in the Luhansk region. The actions of the 98th Airborne Division near Chasiv Yar, including the destruction of a Ukrainian temporary deployment point and the use of BM-21 "Grad" MLRS, highlight the ongoing intensity of fighting in that area.

On the geopolitical front, Donald Trump's statements regarding the Gaza Strip and the conflict in Ukraine add a new dimension to the international context. While the claim of "very good talks" on Ukraine is unconfirmed by Russia, the conversation between Yermak and Kellogg suggests ongoing diplomatic efforts. The potential for a personal contact between Trump and Zelensky could have significant implications for the future of the conflict. The consideration of long-term US ownership of the Gaza Strip, as stated by Trump, could further complicate the geopolitical landscape and have repercussions for regional stability. Trump's plan to potentially send US troops to Gaza and relocate the Palestinian population also raises significant concerns and potential ramifications. The warning about a new trade confrontation between the US and China adds another layer of complexity, potentially affecting global logistics and economic stability, which could indirectly impact the conflict in Ukraine. The new report from Reuters about Syria's new leader proposing Turkish military bases in the country introduces a significant potential shift in regional dynamics.

The broader strategic implications of these developments underscore the evolving nature of the conflict, with a notable increase in the use of air power, particularly drones. The ability to strike targets far from the front lines with relative precision continues to influence both military strategy and civilian morale. The ongoing diplomatic efforts, particularly the potential involvement of Donald Trump, could introduce new variables into the conflict dynamics. The cybersecurity warnings issued by Russian authorities highlight the importance of non-kinetic warfare, including economic and cyber threats, which are increasingly relevant in modern conflicts. The preparation of basements by residents in the Dnipropetrovsk region suggests a growing concern about the expansion of the conflict zone. The reported transfer of 50,000 Ukrainian troops to the infantry indicates a significant reorganization of forces, potentially in response to manpower shortages or a shift in strategy. The CIA's offer of eight months' salary for employee resignations suggests potential internal restructuring or a shift in priorities within the agency. The data on Russian tourism, while not directly related to the conflict, could provide insights into economic and social trends within Russia. The information from the Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding Finnish citizens wishing to fight in Ukraine highlights the international dimension of the conflict and the potential involvement of foreign fighters. Finally, the survey on reasons for work absences in Russia provides a glimpse into the daily lives and concerns of ordinary Russians.