Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 02:38 UTC

Major Updates

Drone Warfare

• Continued Drone Activity in Ukraine:
  • A drone flew near Bila Tserkva towards Fastiv.
  • A drone crossed from Cherkasy Oblast into Vinnytsia Oblast.
  • Four new drones were detected in the Sumy district.
  • "Shahed" drones are reported in Kirovohrad Oblast, heading towards Kropyvnytskyi.
  • "Shahed" drones are reported in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, heading towards Starokostiantyniv.
  • "Shahed" drones are reported in Kyiv Oblast near Bila Tserkva, with a southwesterly course.
  • New "Shahed" drones are reported in Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast.
  • Kyiv Oblast is under threat of drone attacks, with potential air defense activity.
• Drone Attack in Krasnodar Krai, Russia:
  • An attack in Novominskaya, Kanevsky district, caused a fire in a reservoir containing residual petroleum products. The target was confirmed to be an oil depot belonging to "Albashnafta".
  • The fire, assigned a second rank of complexity, is localized, with no reported casualties.
  • 55 personnel and 19 units are involved in firefighting.
  • The plant's capacity allows for processing up to 320,000 tons of hydrocarbon raw materials annually.
• Drone Operations in Kursk Region:
  • Russian forces are using FPV drones with fiber optic cables to target Ukrainian infantry in the Kursk region.

Kharkiv Region

• Second Drone Strike in Kharkiv:
  • A second drone hit the Osnovyanskyi district, causing a fire. Details are being assessed.

Military and Political Developments

• Ukrainian Air Force Activity:
  • Reports of enemy tactical aviation activity on the eastern front.
  • Threat of the use of aerial weapons.
  • Launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast are reported.
• Capture of Armored Vehicle:
  • Russian forces captured a Mastiff armored personnel carrier on the South Donetsk direction.
• Geopolitical Developments:
  • Donald Trump stated that the US is considering long-term ownership of the Gaza Strip for greater stability in the Middle East.
  • Trump also claimed to be having "very good talks" regarding the conflict in Ukraine, although Russia has not confirmed this.
  • Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, had a conversation with Trump's National Security Advisor, Keith Kellogg, discussing the situation on the battlefield, mobilization, and key challenges for Ukraine. They also discussed organizing a personal contact between Trump and Zelensky in the near future.
  • A new trade confrontation between the US and China is disadvantageous for all countries, including Russia, and could affect logistics chains worldwide, according to a Russian senator.

Other

• Cybersecurity and Fraud:
  • The Khabarovsk Krai Police Department released images warning about online fraud schemes, particularly those involving bank cards and investment scams. These warnings are relevant in the context of military operations due to potential economic instability, sanctions evasion, and the use of illicit funds for cyber warfare.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine is marked by persistent and expanding drone activity. New reports indicate drone movements across multiple regions, including Kirovohrad, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, and Sumy Oblasts. The specific targeting of Kropyvnytskyi and Starokostiantyniv suggests a focus on strategic locations. The continued drone attacks, particularly the strike on the oil depot in Krasnodar Krai and the threat to Kyiv Oblast, highlight the ongoing threat to critical infrastructure and the potential for escalation. The use of fiber optic FPV drones by Russian forces in the Kursk region represents a technological advancement aimed at enhancing precision and overcoming electronic countermeasures.

In Russia, the drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai, now confirmed to be targeting the "Albashnafta" oil depot, signifies a continued effort to disrupt Russian infrastructure and logistics. The successful strike, despite Russian claims of interception, underscores the challenges faced by Russian air defenses in countering the drone threat.

The reported activity of the Ukrainian Air Force, including the threat of aerial weapons and the use of guided aerial bombs in Donetsk Oblast, suggests an escalation in aerial warfare. This, combined with the ongoing drone attacks, indicates a complex and multifaceted aerial conflict.

The capture of the Mastiff armored personnel carrier by Russian forces on the South Donetsk direction is a tactical success for Russia and may provide valuable intelligence. The use of advanced drone technology, as reported in the Kursk region, demonstrates an evolving battlefield where technological superiority plays a crucial role.

On the geopolitical front, Donald Trump's statements regarding the Gaza Strip and the conflict in Ukraine add a new dimension to the international context. While the claim of "very good talks" on Ukraine is unconfirmed by Russia, the conversation between Yermak and Kellogg suggests ongoing diplomatic efforts. The potential for a personal contact between Trump and Zelensky could have significant implications for the future of the conflict. The consideration of long-term US ownership of the Gaza Strip, as stated by Trump, could further complicate the geopolitical landscape and have repercussions for regional stability. The warning about a new trade confrontation between the US and China adds another layer of complexity, potentially affecting global logistics and economic stability, which could indirectly impact the conflict in Ukraine.

The broader strategic implications of these developments underscore the evolving nature of the conflict, with a notable increase in the use of air power, particularly drones. The ability to strike targets far from the front lines with relative precision continues to influence both military strategy and civilian morale. The ongoing diplomatic efforts, particularly the potential involvement of Donald Trump, could introduce new variables into the conflict dynamics. The cybersecurity warnings issued by Russian authorities highlight the importance of non-kinetic warfare, including economic and cyber threats, which are increasingly relevant in modern conflicts.