Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 4, 2025, 04:08 UTC

Key Developments

Drone Warfare

New Drone Movements: Ukrainian Air Force reports new movements of Russian drones:
- Drones in the northern part of Kyiv region, heading west.
- Drones in the northeastern part of Chernihiv region, heading southwest.
- Drones in the southeastern part of Kyiv region, heading northwest.
Air Raid Alerts: An updated air raid alert map shows alerts in multiple regions, primarily in the east, northeast, south, and center of Ukraine, including Crimea. The regions under alert include Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Cherkasy, and parts of Kirovohrad. Kyiv city has declared an air raid alert due to the threat of drones approaching from the north and east. Kyiv oblast is reporting enemy drone activity with air defense forces engaged. Air raid alert in Kyiv has been called off. A new air raid alert has been declared for Kyiv for the second time during the night. Enemy drones are confirmed in the airspace of Kyiv, with air defenses actively engaging them.
FPV Drone Usage: Video evidence shows Russian forces using "Molniya" and "VT-40" FPV drones against Ukrainian positions in the Kupiansk direction. The attacks are carried out by the 375th Separate Anti-Tank Artillery Battalion of the 1st Guards Tank Army. The video depicts a heavily cratered landscape, indicating intense artillery or aerial bombardment. Multiple precision strikes are observed, targeting trenches, a roadway, and a makeshift structure. The recurring pattern of explosions suggests the use of similar ammunition throughout.

Donetsk Region

Krasnoarmiisk Direction: Assault troops of the "Atlanta" battalion captured a Ukrainian stronghold, as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Video analysis confirms the presence of trench warfare in a winter environment, with a Russian soldier assaulting a trench system supported by drone strikes.
Nadezhdinka, Krasnoarmiisk Direction: A Ukrainian M2A2 Bradley IFV was hit by an anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) and subsequently abandoned its own soldier.
Kurakhove: Ukrainian forces are reportedly retreating west of Kurakhove towards the road to Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces have reportedly advanced in the northeastern part of Dachne. Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces are attempting to expand their control near the road to Zaporizhzhia in order to encircle Ukrainian units in the Volchya River area.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces are reportedly encompassing the city, having crossed the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal north of the city, according to TASS sources in the Volunteer Corps of the "South" group.

Geopolitical Developments

EU Defense Spending: All EU countries agree on the need to increase defense spending, according to the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa.
Trump-Xi Phone Call: A phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping is expected to take place in the next couple of days, according to White House spokesperson Caroline Leavitt. Trump himself stated that the call would likely take place "within the next 24 hours". Trump also warned that if an agreement with China cannot be reached, tariffs will be "very, very substantial". The call will reportedly focus on the issue of "illegal Chinese fentanyl".
US-Canada Trade: Trump confirmed that the US will suspend the introduction of tariffs against Canada for 30 days to conclude a trade agreement.
US-Mexico Trade: Trump signed a decree suspending the introduction of tariffs against Mexico, effective no earlier than March 4, 2025. This decision follows a phone call between Trump and the Mexican president, during which Mexico agreed to deploy 10,000 troops to the US border to curb the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants.
USAID Reorganization: Trump appointed Marco Rubio as acting administrator of the US Agency for International Development (USAID). The State Department stated that this is a step towards gaining control and a better understanding of the agency's activities. The State Department claims that "USAID has long deviated from its original mission of responsibly promoting American interests abroad, and it is now quite obvious that a significant part of USAID funding does not meet the basic national interests of the United States." The State Department promises to protect the interests of the American people and ensure that tax funds are not wasted.
Deployment in Belarus: The "Oreshnik" system will be deployed in Belarus, as agreed upon by the presidents of both countries, according to the head of the second department of the CIS countries of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Alexei Polishchuk.
Negotiations: Many countries have expressed their willingness to host future negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, according to the head of the second department of the CIS countries of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Alexei Polishchuk.
IAEA Visit to Kyiv: Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is visiting Ukraine. He will visit a Kyiv substation to assess damage and help prevent a nuclear accident. An analysis of a photo of Grossi reviewing documents on a train suggests that the IAEA is actively monitoring and assessing the security of nuclear facilities within the conflict zone.

Other

Russian Military Presence in Syria: The scientific director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vitaly Naumkin, believes that Syria should maintain Russian military facilities as a guarantee of its sovereignty and independence.
FIDE Controversy: Magnus Carlsen criticized the president of the International Chess Federation (FIDE), Arkady Dvorkovich, following a disagreement between the FIDE Council and the Freestyle Chess Tour regarding the status of FIDE as the sole regulator of world chess championships.
New Russian Military Fitness Standards: The Russian Ministry of Defense has proposed changes to fitness standards for military service, including establishing a category of "fit with minor restrictions" for individuals with syphilis.
US-Canada Relations: Marco Rubio has denied that the US State Department is in talks with Canada regarding its potential admission to the US as the 51st state.
Missing Child Case in Kaliningrad: The stepfather of a missing child in the Kaliningrad region has been detained on suspicion of murder.
"Krona-E" Air Defense System: The Kalashnikov Concern is showcasing its new "Krona-E" short-range air defense system at the IDEX 2025 arms exhibition in Abu Dhabi. The system is designed to protect important state and infrastructure facilities from air attacks, particularly medium-class enemy drones. It consists of detection, control, and mobile or stationary combat modules equipped with 9M340 and 9M333 surface-to-air missiles.
New Russian Legislation on Migrant Workers: A new bill proposed by the LDPR faction in the Russian State Duma would require migrant workers to leave Russia upon the expiration of their labor contracts.
Bribery Case in Tyumen, Russia: The deputy governor of the Tyumen region, accused of taking a bribe, attempted to escape on the eve of his arrest. This information was revealed during a court hearing on the extension of Vyacheslav Vakhrin's arrest.
Drug Bust in Khabarovsk, Russia: Police in Khabarovsk detained a drug courier with a large quantity of hash oil. The suspect, a 60-year-old owner of grocery stores with a prior criminal record, was caught after a chase and found with nearly a kilogram of hash oil. A resident of Komsomolsk-on-Amur thanked a local police officer for resolving a property dispute professionally and efficiently.
Drone Footage Analysis: Thermal imaging drone footage shows the targeting and destruction of an M198 howitzer, a D-20 howitzer, and a BUK-M1 missile system, indicating a focus on counterbattery fire and the suppression of enemy air defense systems. Another video analysis of drone footage depicting a military operation shows soldiers in a trench, explosions, and signs of damage. This data can be used to influence targeting, damage assessment, tactical adaptation, and allocation of resources.
Image Analysis: An image of an armored vehicle moving through open terrain with a soldier on foot, under aerial observation, suggests a pattern of reconnaissance and potential movements of vehicles or troops. Another image analysis shows an IAEA official reviewing documents on a train, likely in transit to or from a nuclear facility. This suggests the IAEA is actively monitoring and assessing the security of nuclear facilities within the conflict. Another image analysis shows a war-damaged building or monument, likely a memorial site. The presence of an Airborne Assault forces patch indicates the potential for the Russian Armed Forces' presence and could be used for propaganda.
Murder Case in Russia: The court extended the arrest of Roman Mikoyan, the stepson of rock musician Stas Namin, who is accused of murdering his half-brother and grandmother. Mikoyan reportedly changed his surname to his grandmother's, Tkachenko.
Pension Indexing in Russia: The head of the State Duma Committee on Labor, Social Policy, and Veterans Affairs, Yaroslav Nilov, proposes to permanently index insurance pensions from January 1st and then conduct a further indexation in February.
New Book and Interview: An interview with Andrey Pinchuk, the first Minister of State Security of the DPR and former commander of BARS-13 in 2023-2024, discusses his new book "СВО. Клаузевиц и Кот. Хроники Спецоперации" ("SMO. Clausewitz and the Cat. Chronicles of the Special Military Operation"). The interview covers his personal combat experience, key moments of the SMO, the heroism of Russian soldiers, army reform, the role of the West in the Ukrainian conflict, and possible scenarios for its conclusion. A video analysis of this interview reveals insights into the operational challenges of the special military operation and provides an explanation for why this fighting will continue. It ultimately reveals the Russian government's intention to control the conflict at all costs.
Sverdlovsk Oblast Fire: A large fire has broken out at a polyethylene warehouse in the Sverdlovsk region, covering an area of 2,400 square meters. There are no reports of casualties.
Most Economical Cars in Russia: A study by Gazprombank Autoleasing has found that Geely and Belgee cars are the most economical in Russia in 2024 in terms of fuel expenses.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with several key developments:

Donetsk Region: Russian forces continue to advance, particularly around Kurakhove, where Ukrainian forces are reportedly retreating. The situation in Chasiv Yar is also critical, with Russian forces reportedly encompassing the city. About 50 soldiers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to attack near Volchansk, but the attack lasted for over 7 hours, after which the Ukrainian Armed Forces "scattered through the forest".

Drone Warfare: Drone warfare remains a significant aspect of the conflict. New reports indicate Russian drone movements towards multiple Ukrainian regions, including Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy, with air raid alerts in effect across much of eastern, northeastern, southern, and central Ukraine. Air defenses are actively engaging enemy drones, particularly in Kyiv. The use of FPV drones by Russian forces in the Kupiansk direction continues, and a Ukrainian M2A2 Bradley IFV was hit and abandoned its soldier in the Nadezhdinka area.

Geopolitical Developments: The EU's commitment to increased defense spending and the upcoming phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping are notable. Trump's appointment of Rubio to head USAID signals potential shifts in US foreign aid policy. Trump's decision to suspend tariffs against Mexico, following Mexico's agreement to deploy troops to the US border, highlights a shift in US-Mexico relations and potentially frees up Mexican resources to focus on internal security. The visit of IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi to Ukraine underscores international concern regarding nuclear facility safety.

Other Developments: Russia's proposed changes to military fitness standards and the showcasing of the "Krona-E" air defense system indicate ongoing efforts to modernize the Russian military. Domestic Russian issues, such as the bribery case in Tyumen and the proposed legislation on migrant workers, may have indirect effects on the Russian war effort.

New Updates from the Last 6 Hours:

Kursk Region: The situation in the Kursk region appears to have shifted, with reports suggesting that Russian forces failed to maintain control of Makhnovka near Sudzha, and Ukrainian forces are reportedly controlling most of the settlement. There's also an increase in enemy drone activity near Rylsk. Ukrainian forces are reportedly being reinforced in the Kursk region, including with former prisoners. A second Ukrainian soldier has been arrested for the murder of a civilian in Russkoye Porechnoye, Kursk region. The soldier admitted to shooting a civilian on the orders of his commander.
Kharkiv Region: Ukrainian forces are reportedly trying to push Russian troops out of the northern Kharkiv region at any cost, with reserves being transferred to the area. There are reports of significant fuel supplies being delivered, possibly indicating preparations for offensive actions.
Zaporizhzhia Region: Russian aviation and artillery continue to strike targets near Zaporizhzhia and Kamianske.
Belgorod Region (Russia): Multiple drone attacks were reported in the Belgorod region, targeting vehicles and buildings.
Donetsk People's Republic (DPR): Four civilians were reportedly injured in the DPR due to Ukrainian attacks.
Turkey: Turkish President Erdogan may visit Syria before the start of Ramadan.

Overall Assessment: The conflict remains intense and dynamic. Russian forces continue to make gains in the Donetsk region, while the situation in the Kursk region appears to have become more fluid. Drone warfare continues to be a major factor, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance and attack. The geopolitical landscape is also shifting, with potential implications for the conflict's future trajectory. The new information suggests a potential escalation in the Kharkiv and Kursk regions, with both sides reinforcing their positions and preparing for potential offensives. The arrest of a second Ukrainian soldier for the murder of a civilian in the Kursk region further highlights the brutality of the conflict and will likely be used by Russia for propaganda purposes. The potential visit of Turkish President Erdogan to Syria could also have implications for the broader regional dynamics.