Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 4, 2025, 03:08 UTC

Key Developments

Drone Warfare

New Drone Movements: Ukrainian Air Force reports new movements of Russian drones:
- Drones in the eastern part of Kyiv region, heading west.
- Drones in the eastern part of Chernihiv region, heading west.
- Drones on the border of Chernihiv and Poltava regions, heading southwest.
- Drones in the north of Poltava region, heading south.
- Drones in the northern part of Sumy region, heading west.
- Drones in the northern part of Cherkasy region, heading southwest.
- Drones approaching Kyiv from the north and east.
- Drones in the northeastern part of Chernihiv region, heading southwest.
- Drones in the western part of Poltava region, heading west.
- Drones in the Vasylkivskyi district of Kyiv region, constantly changing course.
Air Raid Alerts: An updated air raid alert map shows alerts in multiple regions, primarily in the east, northeast, south, and center of Ukraine, including Crimea. The regions under alert include Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Cherkasy, and parts of Kirovohrad. Kyiv city has declared an air raid alert due to the threat of drones approaching from the north and east. Kyiv oblast is reporting enemy drone activity with air defense forces engaged. Air raid alert in Kyiv has been called off. A new air raid alert has been declared for Kyiv for the second time during the night.
FPV Drone Usage: Video evidence shows Russian forces using "Molniya" and "VT-40" FPV drones against Ukrainian positions in the Kupiansk direction. The attacks are carried out by the 375th Separate Anti-Tank Artillery Battalion of the 1st Guards Tank Army. The video depicts a heavily cratered landscape, indicating intense artillery or aerial bombardment. Multiple precision strikes are observed, targeting trenches, a roadway, and a makeshift structure. The recurring pattern of explosions suggests the use of similar ammunition throughout.

Donetsk Region

Krasnoarmiisk Direction: Assault troops of the "Atlanta" battalion captured a Ukrainian stronghold, as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Video analysis confirms the presence of trench warfare in a winter environment, with a Russian soldier assaulting a trench system supported by drone strikes.
Nadezhdinka, Krasnoarmiisk Direction: A Ukrainian M2A2 Bradley IFV was hit by an anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) and subsequently abandoned its own soldier.
Kurakhove: Ukrainian forces are reportedly retreating west of Kurakhove towards the road to Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces have reportedly advanced in the northeastern part of Dachne. Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces are attempting to expand their control near the road to Zaporizhzhia in order to encircle Ukrainian units in the Volchya River area.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces are reportedly encompassing the city, having crossed the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal north of the city, according to TASS sources in the Volunteer Corps of the "South" group.

Geopolitical Developments

EU Defense Spending: All EU countries agree on the need to increase defense spending, according to the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa.
Trump-Xi Phone Call: A phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping is expected to take place in the next couple of days, according to White House spokesperson Caroline Leavitt.
US-Canada Trade: Trump confirmed that the US will suspend the introduction of tariffs against Canada for 30 days to conclude a trade agreement.
US-Mexico Trade: Trump signed a decree suspending the introduction of tariffs against Mexico, effective no earlier than March 4, 2025. This decision follows a phone call between Trump and the Mexican president, during which Mexico agreed to deploy 10,000 troops to the US border to curb the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants.
USAID Reorganization: Trump appointed Marco Rubio as acting administrator of the US Agency for International Development (USAID). The State Department stated that this is a step towards gaining control and a better understanding of the agency's activities. The State Department claims that "USAID has long deviated from its original mission of responsibly promoting American interests abroad, and it is now quite obvious that a significant part of USAID funding does not meet the basic national interests of the United States." The State Department promises to protect the interests of the American people and ensure that tax funds are not wasted.
Deployment in Belarus: The "Oreshnik" system will be deployed in Belarus, as agreed upon by the presidents of both countries, according to the head of the second department of the CIS countries of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Alexei Polishchuk.
Negotiations: Many countries have expressed their willingness to host future negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, according to the head of the second department of the CIS countries of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Alexei Polishchuk.
IAEA Visit to Kyiv: Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is visiting Ukraine. He will visit a Kyiv substation to assess damage and help prevent a nuclear accident. An analysis of a photo of Grossi reviewing documents on a train suggests that the IAEA is actively monitoring and assessing the security of nuclear facilities within the conflict zone.

Other

Russian Military Presence in Syria: The scientific director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vitaly Naumkin, believes that Syria should maintain Russian military facilities as a guarantee of its sovereignty and independence.
FIDE Controversy: Magnus Carlsen criticized the president of the International Chess Federation (FIDE), Arkady Dvorkovich, following a disagreement between the FIDE Council and the Freestyle Chess Tour regarding the status of FIDE as the sole regulator of world chess championships.
New Russian Military Fitness Standards: The Russian Ministry of Defense has proposed changes to fitness standards for military service, including establishing a category of "fit with minor restrictions" for individuals with syphilis.
US-Canada Relations: Marco Rubio has denied that the US State Department is in talks with Canada regarding its potential admission to the US as the 51st state.
Missing Child Case in Kaliningrad: The stepfather of a missing child in the Kaliningrad region has been detained on suspicion of murder.
"Krona-E" Air Defense System: The Kalashnikov Concern is showcasing its new "Krona-E" short-range air defense system at the IDEX 2025 arms exhibition in Abu Dhabi. The system is designed to protect important state and infrastructure facilities from air attacks, particularly medium-class enemy drones. It consists of detection, control, and mobile or stationary combat modules equipped with 9M340 and 9M333 surface-to-air missiles.
New Russian Legislation on Migrant Workers: A new bill proposed by the LDPR faction in the Russian State Duma would require migrant workers to leave Russia upon the expiration of their labor contracts.
Bribery Case in Tyumen, Russia: The deputy governor of the Tyumen region, accused of taking a bribe, attempted to escape on the eve of his arrest. This information was revealed during a court hearing on the extension of Vyacheslav Vakhrin's arrest.
Drug Bust in Khabarovsk, Russia: Police in Khabarovsk detained a drug courier with a large quantity of hash oil. The suspect, a 60-year-old owner of grocery stores with a prior criminal record, was caught after a chase and found with nearly a kilogram of hash oil. A resident of Komsomolsk-on-Amur thanked a local police officer for resolving a property dispute professionally and efficiently.
Drone Footage Analysis: Thermal imaging drone footage shows the targeting and destruction of an M198 howitzer, a D-20 howitzer, and a BUK-M1 missile system, indicating a focus on counterbattery fire and the suppression of enemy air defense systems.
Image Analysis: An image of an armored vehicle moving through open terrain with a soldier on foot, under aerial observation, suggests a pattern of reconnaissance and potential movements of vehicles or troops.
Murder Case in Russia: The court extended the arrest of Roman Mikoyan, the stepson of rock musician Stas Namin, who is accused of murdering his half-brother and grandmother. Mikoyan reportedly changed his surname to his grandmother's, Tkachenko.
Pension Indexing in Russia: The head of the State Duma Committee on Labor, Social Policy, and Veterans Affairs, Yaroslav Nilov, proposes to permanently index insurance pensions from January 1st and then conduct a further indexation in February.
New Book and Interview: An interview with Andrey Pinchuk, the first Minister of State Security of the DPR and former commander of BARS-13 in 2023-2024, discusses his new book "СВО. Клаузевиц и Кот. Хроники Спецоперации" ("SMO. Clausewitz and the Cat. Chronicles of the Special Military Operation"). The interview covers his personal combat experience, key moments of the SMO, the heroism of Russian soldiers, army reform, the role of the West in the Ukrainian conflict, and possible scenarios for its conclusion.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic. Russian forces continue to make advances in the Donetsk region, with Ukrainian forces reportedly retreating west of Kurakhove. Drone warfare remains a significant aspect of the conflict, with new reports of Russian drone movements towards multiple Ukrainian regions, including Kyiv. Air raid alerts are in effect across much of eastern, northeastern, southern, and central Ukraine. The use of FPV drones by Russian forces in the Kupiansk direction highlights the continued intensity of fighting in that area. A Ukrainian M2A2 Bradley IFV was hit and abandoned its soldier in the Nadezhdinka area, indicating further Ukrainian equipment losses. Russian assault troops have reportedly captured a Ukrainian stronghold in the Krasnoarmiisk direction. Russian forces are reportedly encompassing Chasiv Yar, having crossed the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal north of the city.

On the geopolitical front, the EU's commitment to increased defense spending and the upcoming phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping are notable developments. Additionally, Trump's appointment of Rubio to head USAID signals potential shifts in US foreign aid policy. Trump's decision to suspend tariffs against Mexico, following Mexico's agreement to deploy troops to the US border, highlights a shift in US-Mexico relations and potentially frees up Mexican resources to focus on internal security. The visit of IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi to Ukraine underscores the international concern regarding the safety and security of nuclear facilities amidst the ongoing conflict.

New developments include Russia's proposed changes to military fitness standards and the showcasing of the "Krona-E" air defense system, indicating ongoing efforts to modernize and adapt the Russian military. The denial of talks regarding Canada's potential admission to the US provides some clarity on US foreign policy. The domestic Russian issues, such as the bribery case in Tyumen, the drug bust in Khabarovsk, the missing child case in Kaliningrad, the murder case involving Stas Namin's stepson, and the proposed legislation on migrant workers, do not directly impact the Ukrainian conflict but may have indirect effects on the Russian war effort, particularly regarding manpower and social stability. The capture of a Ukrainian stronghold by Russian assault troops in the Krasnoarmiisk direction, along with the continued drone movements, indicates that the conflict remains intense and dynamic.

The new message regarding many countries expressing their willingness to host future negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine is a significant development, suggesting a potential opening for diplomacy, although the actual implementation remains uncertain. The proposal for permanent pension indexation in Russia is a domestic issue but could have indirect implications for the war effort by affecting the Russian government's budget and potentially public sentiment.

The interview with Andrey Pinchuk provides valuable insights into the Russian perspective on the conflict, highlighting the importance of personal combat experience, the perceived heroism of Russian soldiers, and the need for army reform. The discussion of possible scenarios for the conflict's conclusion offers a glimpse into Russian strategic thinking.