Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 4, 2025, 00:38 UTC

Key Developments

Drone Warfare

New Drone Movements: Ukrainian Air Force reports new movements of Russian drones:
- Drones in the eastern part of Kyiv region, heading west.
- Drones in the eastern part of Chernihiv region, heading west.
- Drones on the border of Chernihiv and Poltava regions, heading southwest.
- Drones in the north of Poltava region, heading south.
- Drones in the northern part of Sumy region, heading west.
- Drones in the northern part of Cherkasy region, heading southwest.
- Drones approaching Kyiv from the north and east.
Air Raid Alerts: An updated air raid alert map shows alerts in multiple regions, primarily in the east, northeast, south, and center of Ukraine, including Crimea. The regions under alert include Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Cherkasy, and parts of Kirovohrad. Kyiv city has declared an air raid alert due to the threat of drones approaching from the north and east. Kyiv oblast is reporting enemy drone activity with air defense forces engaged.
FPV Drone Usage: Video evidence shows Russian forces using "Molniya" and "VT-40" FPV drones against Ukrainian positions in the Kupiansk direction. The attacks are carried out by the 375th Separate Anti-Tank Artillery Battalion of the 1st Guards Tank Army. The video depicts a heavily cratered landscape, indicating intense artillery or aerial bombardment. Multiple precision strikes are observed, targeting trenches, a roadway, and a makeshift structure. The recurring pattern of explosions suggests the use of similar ammunition throughout.

Donetsk Region

Kurakhove: Ukrainian forces are reportedly retreating west of Kurakhove towards the road to Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces have reportedly advanced in the northeastern part of Dachne. Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces are attempting to expand their control near the road to Zaporizhzhia in order to encircle Ukrainian units in the Volchya River area.

Geopolitical Developments

EU Defense Spending: All EU countries agree on the need to increase defense spending, according to the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa.
Trump-Xi Phone Call: A phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping is expected to take place in the next couple of days, according to White House spokesperson Caroline Leavitt.
US-Canada Trade: Trump confirmed that the US will suspend the introduction of tariffs against Canada for 30 days to conclude a trade agreement.
USAID Reorganization: Trump appointed Marco Rubio as acting administrator of the US Agency for International Development (USAID). The State Department stated that this is a step towards gaining control and a better understanding of the agency's activities. The State Department claims that "USAID has long deviated from its original mission of responsibly promoting American interests abroad, and it is now quite obvious that a significant part of USAID funding does not meet the basic national interests of the United States." The State Department promises to protect the interests of the American people and ensure that tax funds are not wasted.
Deployment in Belarus: The "Oreshnik" system will be deployed in Belarus, as agreed upon by the presidents of both countries, according to the head of the second department of the CIS countries of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Alexei Polishchuk.

Other

Russian Military Presence in Syria: The scientific director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vitaly Naumkin, believes that Syria should maintain Russian military facilities as a guarantee of its sovereignty and independence.
FIDE Controversy: Magnus Carlsen criticized the president of the International Chess Federation (FIDE), Arkady Dvorkovich, following a disagreement between the FIDE Council and the Freestyle Chess Tour regarding the status of FIDE as the sole regulator of world chess championships.
New Russian Military Fitness Standards: The Russian Ministry of Defense has proposed changes to fitness standards for military service, including establishing a category of "fit with minor restrictions" for individuals with syphilis.
US-Canada Relations: Marco Rubio has denied that the US State Department is in talks with Canada regarding its potential admission to the US as the 51st state.
Missing Child Case in Kaliningrad: The stepfather of a missing child in the Kaliningrad region has been detained on suspicion of murder.
"Krona-E" Air Defense System: The Kalashnikov Concern is showcasing its new "Krona-E" short-range air defense system at the IDEX 2025 arms exhibition in Abu Dhabi. The system is designed to protect important state and infrastructure facilities from air attacks, particularly medium-class enemy drones. It consists of detection, control, and mobile or stationary combat modules equipped with 9M340 and 9M333 surface-to-air missiles.
New Russian Legislation on Migrant Workers: A new bill proposed by the LDPR faction in the Russian State Duma would require migrant workers to leave Russia upon the expiration of their labor contracts.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic. Russian forces continue to make advances in the Donetsk region, with Ukrainian forces reportedly retreating west of Kurakhove. Drone warfare remains a significant aspect of the conflict, with new reports of Russian drone movements towards multiple Ukrainian regions, including Kyiv. Air raid alerts are in effect across much of eastern, northeastern, southern, and central Ukraine. The use of FPV drones by Russian forces in the Kupiansk direction highlights the continued intensity of fighting in that area.

On the geopolitical front, the EU's commitment to increased defense spending and the upcoming phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping are notable developments. Additionally, Trump's appointment of Rubio to head USAID signals potential shifts in US foreign aid policy, while the confirmation of "Oreshnik" deployment in Belarus indicates continued military cooperation between Russia and Belarus.

New developments include Russia's proposed changes to military fitness standards and the showcasing of the "Krona-E" air defense system, indicating ongoing efforts to modernize and adapt the Russian military. The denial of talks regarding Canada's potential admission to the US provides some clarity on US foreign policy. The missing child case in Kaliningrad and the proposed legislation on migrant workers are domestic Russian matters with no direct bearing on the Ukrainian conflict but may indirectly affect the manpower situation within Russia.