Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 3, 2025, 14:38 UTC

Major Updates

• Donetsk Region:
  • Pokrovsk: The situation remains extremely precarious. Russian forces are within 2 kilometers of Myrnohrad and 3 kilometers of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border, with fierce battles near Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, and Baranivka. One of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro is cut off. Intense fighting is reported near Yelyzavetivka and Vodyane Druhe. Russian forces report advances towards Pershe Travnia (Leontovychi), Novosergievka, and Lysivka. They are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and advancing, blocking Ukrainian supply lines. Positional fighting continues in the Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) area. Russian forces advanced 1 km along the railway towards Krasnoarmiisk and occupied new positions, including Sribne. An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka. Russian forces are achieving tactical successes in the area, with a powerful offensive near Pokrovsk. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces destroying Russian equipment with FPV drones. Ukrainian forces are focusing on disrupting Russian offensive plans and depleting their combat potential. Russian forces are reportedly within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian forces report repelling 39 Russian attacks in the area. Russian units have reportedly entered the central part of Vodyane Druhe after taking control of strongholds to the south. Attempts to take Zelene Pole are ongoing. Russian forces have reportedly captured Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Zelene, Kotlyne, Solone, Novovasylivka, Nadiivka, Yasenove, Novoandriivka, and Petropavlivka in January. Heavy fighting is reported for Lysivka. Some Russian FPV drones are operating deep in the enemy's defenses, up to Rodynske. Ukrainian forces are using heavy drones to attack Russian positions south of Rozlyv. Russian forces report further advances near Dachne, Andriivka, Slov'yanka, and Novoandriivka. They have improved their tactical position with an advance near Terniv and are pressing on the right flank of Krasnoarmiisk, with fighting near Malinovka and Yelizavetivka. Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost Novoselivka Persha.
  • Sribne: Russian forces report they have taken the settlement and are completing a clear-out operation. Ukrainian forces confirm that heavy fighting continues in the area.
  • Andriivka: Russian forces report they have expanded their control in the eastern part of the settlement.
  • Kramatorsk Direction: Russian forces have advanced south of Rozlyv and expanded control in the Dachne area, with increased assault activities. A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, injuring 13 people, including two children. One person was killed in Ivanopil, and another was wounded in Chasiv Yar.
  • Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi and Severnyi districts. They have taken a position on a spoil tip on the western outskirts of the Blok-9 mine. Battles are reported on the southwestern outskirts. Russian forces are advancing from the southwest. Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" are being used. Russian troops are completing the cleanup of the Severnyi microdistrict and are destroying Ukrainian forces in the Shevchenko microdistrict. Russian units also took positions in the buildings south of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant and advanced in the area of the Dolgoe-II tract south of the Novyi microdistrict. In the northern part of Chasiv Yar, fighting is ongoing for the remaining part of the Novosjeverny microdistrict. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are concentrating forces in the area of Dniprovska Street in the Shevchenko microdistrict, trying to hold the south of the city. Russian FPV drones are attacking Ukrainian infantry and burning equipment on the road.
  • Kurakhove: Most of the city has been captured. Heavy fighting is reported in the eastern part of Andriivka. West of Kurakhove, Russian troops are advancing in the Dachne and Andriivka areas, with half of the Dachne settlement cleared. The capture of Andriivka is strategically important. Russian troops are attempting to advance in the Dachne and Andriivka areas and are trying to encircle Dachne. A Ukrainian stronghold on the eastern outskirts of Andriivka was reportedly taken. Video evidence shows intense fighting near Kurakhove. Russian forces have reportedly expanded their control in the eastern part of Andriivka and are storming Sribne in the Novopavlivsk direction. Six Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendered near Kurakhove. Active combat is taking place in the Kurakhove-Sukhi Yaly area. Russian troops are trying to encircle Dachne to the west of Kurakhove. Fighting is ongoing in the center of Dachnoe, with reports of a Russian breakthrough from the east. Fighting is reported near Petropavlivka, Dachnoe and Sukhykh Yal.
  • Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses are under immense strain, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts and near several mines. Ukrainian forces report battles for the "Toretska" mine, with 90-95% of the city under Russian control. Ukrainian forces have reportedly made advances in the northern part of Toretsk. Krymske has been liberated by Russian forces. Intense fighting is reported on the outskirts of Toretsk. Video shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian positions in Toretsk. A T-64 tank of the 28th Ukrainian Brigade reportedly repelled a Russian assault near Toretsk, destroying a building used by Russian forces.
  • Siversk - Verkhnokamyanske: Active combat operations continue near Siversk. Russian forces launched an attack towards Verkhnokamyanske, resulting in troops landing in the central part of the settlement. They reportedly advanced 1.5 km in the Siversk direction and occupied new positions in Verkhnokamyanske. Bilohorivka is a focal point, with a powerful Russian offensive aiming to encircle Ukrainian forces supplying the settlement from the west. Russian forces have advanced on multiple streets within Bilohorivka itself.
  • Other Locations: Advances are reported near Uspenivka and Alekseevka. Fierce fighting is reported in Zelenovka. Further advances are reported near Dachne, Andriivka, Slov'yanka, and Novoandriivka. Solone has reportedly been liberated. Video shows Russian artillery striking Ukrainian positions on the South Donetsk direction. Fighting continues in Zverevo. Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka. Bogatyrskoe: Russian assault groups have advanced to the area of Alekseevka.
  • Deep State Update: Enemy forces are persistently attacking in the Pokrovsk sector, especially near Sribne, south of Nadiivka, south and east of Udachne, west and east near Kotlyne, and southwest of Zverove. Partial successes are reported, with the situation evolving. Advances are reported near Vozdvyzhenka, Kotlyne, and Andriivka. Geolocated footage indicates an advance in the northern outskirts of Nadiivka. The map has been updated to reflect the advances near Sribne, Dachne and near Kolodyaziv.
  • Horlivka: Ukrainian forces reportedly used FPV drones with cluster munitions. Ten civilians were injured in Horlivka due to shelling.
  • Novoyeлизаvetovka: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially declared the liberation of the settlement.
  • Vuhledar: Russian sappers discovered mines made with 3D printers.
  • Sukhi Yaly River: Russian artillerymen are targeting Ukrainian forces. Army aviation destroyed a bridge across the Sukhi Yaly River near Konstantinopol.
  • Dzerzhynsk Direction: Russian forces continue to increase their firepower near Dzerzhynsk and are expanding their control towards Shcherbynivka. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the liberation of Krymskoe, with 70% of the village under their control. Fighting continues on the northern outskirts. Russian forces have advanced to the center of Shcherbynivka and eliminated the pocket between Dzerzhynsk and Shcherbynivka. On the Konstantinopol direction, Russian forces are advancing north of the Sukhi Yaly River.
• Luhansk Region:
  • Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, Zakhidne, and Ivanivka, moving towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
  • Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River.
  • Zakhidne and Ivanivka have been captured.
  • Hrekivka Direction: Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with a 400m advance.
  • Kupiansk: Russian forces have approached the northern outskirts of Kupiansk, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are deploying reinforcements.
  • Bohuslavka: Battles have been initiated. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk and have destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove, initiating battles in Bohuslavka.
  • Novoyehorivka: An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka. There are reports of fierce fighting near Novoyehorivka, with Russian forces attempting to advance towards the settlement.
  • Kupyansk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 18 Russian attacks near Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Stepova Novoselivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, and Lozova. Three engagements are ongoing.
  • Lyman Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled eight Russian attacks near Novoiehorivka, Novoliubivka, Makiivka, Yampolivka, and Serebrianka.
  • Sribne, Dachne, Kolodyaziv: The map has been updated to reflect Russian advances in these areas.
• Kursk Region:
  • The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory. Several settlements have been captured, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya. The liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino is confirmed.
  • Heavy fighting continues near Nikolsky.
  • Sudzha: Russian forces are bypassing the city from the south. A Ukrainian activist and local media report that a FAB was dropped on the Sudzha boarding school. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed the airstrike, stating it was a deliberate attack with a guided aerial bomb (KAB). The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the Ukrainian Armed Forces committed a war crime by launching a targeted missile attack on the school. Russian authorities are calling for international condemnation of the attack. The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation has opened a criminal case against Colonel Rostislav Karpusha, commander of the 19th Separate Missile Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, for allegedly ordering the missile strike. A child interviewed by Russian military investigators recounted Ukrainian drones circling over a school in the Kursk border region. Rescue operations at the destroyed boarding school in Sudzha are being hampered by continuous Russian drone attacks. A wounded woman is reportedly trapped under the rubble.
  • A Ukrainian assault force was destroyed during an attempted landing near Tetkino.
  • Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
  • Russian forces are advancing, with battles near Sverdlykove and nearby forested areas.
  • Over 100 paratroopers have reportedly been deployed to the Sudzhansky district for a counterattack near Nikolsky.
  • Reports indicate that contractors have allegedly embezzled over 3 billion rubles allocated for the construction of fortifications.
  • The landing attempt of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on two armored personnel carriers was thwarted in Makhnovka.
  • Nikolaevo-Daryino has been cleared.
  • Battles are ongoing near Pohrebky.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults in the Kursk region.
  • The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
  • Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov inspected the Yug Group of Forces.
  • Russian forces are continuing to advance in the region of Sverdlikovo and north of Guevo.
  • The Ukrainian Armed Forces claim to have destroyed a command post of the "Kursk" troop grouping of the Russian Armed Forces in Rylsk, Kursk region.
  • Ukrainian forces from the 73rd Naval Special Operations Center are conducting operations in the Kursk region, collecting data on Russian and North Korean troops.
  • Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the Kursk region for 100 days.
  • Video shows the work of drone operators from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade in the Kursk region, with reports of the capture and clearing of two strongholds south of Nikolaevo-Daryino.
  • Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian "Kozak" armored vehicle with a "Lancet" loitering munition in the Kursk region.
  • Video shows a Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces destroying a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
  • Ussuri paratroopers are displaying captured trophies and the restoration of a captured Ukrainian BMP-2 in the border areas of the Kursk region.
  • A Russian drone targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer in Makhnovka, Kursk region.
  • Russian troops are using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
  • A Russian drone operator targeted a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region.
  • A Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeted a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region.
  • An FPV drone successfully destroyed a Ukrainian T-72M1 tank in the Kursk border area. A British Challenger tank was also targeted by a drone called "Prince Vandal Novgorodsky".
  • Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Su-34 bomber.
  • Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian BMP with an FPV drone in the Kursk border area.
  • Russian forces are destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
  • Russian airborne forces are destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Makhnovka.
  • The acting governor of the Kursk region met with refugees from areas occupied by Ukrainian forces.
  • The death of the Deputy Governor of Primorsky Krai, Sergei Efremov, in the Kursk region has been confirmed.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 12 attacks in the Kursk direction. Five engagements are ongoing.
  • Another destroyed M1126 Stryker armored personnel carrier was reported in the Kursk region.
  • Servicemen of the "Molniya" UAV unit of the Tula Guards Airborne Forces destroyed a Ukrainian BMP on a forest road in one of the border areas of the Kursk region with a precise strike.
  • Russian forces, under the command of the special forces unit "Anvar", destroyed Ukrainian equipment at a checkpoint in the Sumy region.
  • One person was injured when a drone attacked a civilian vehicle in the Belovsky district of the Kursk region.
  • There are fierce battles in Sverdlikovo and the surrounding forest belts.
  • There is an advance in the north of the Sudzhansky district.
  • The Ukrainian Armed Forces are transferring all possible reserves to the Sudzhansky district, including Ukrainian border guards from the 94th border detachment of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine.
  • Ka-52M helicopters for airstrikes: Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters for airstrikes.
  • Russian forces report that the enemy grouping in the Kursk direction has been completely defeated. The remnants of the enemy's forces have been pushed back across the border. The enemy has reportedly lost 1,653 troops, 3 tanks, 10 armored vehicles, 23 vehicles, 6 artillery pieces, and 2 MLRS.
  • New: Fighters of the 253rd Separate Assault Battalion "AREY" of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army reportedly destroyed a group of 15 Russian soldiers and captured 3 during combat operations in the Kursk region. A video shows a captured Russian soldier praising the treatment by Ukrainian forces and criticizing the actions of his own command.
• Kharkiv Region:
  • Drone Attacks: Multiple reports of drone attacks and explosions in Kharkiv and surrounding areas. A fire broke out at an energy facility. A drone attack targeted a civilian enterprise in the Novobavarskyi district, causing a large fire. Two drones fell in the Kyivskyi district. In the Rohanska community, a drone attack destroyed a private house and garage, injuring 2 people. In Shestakove, a drone attack caused a fire in a destroyed private house, with no reported casualties. A drone attack on a civilian enterprise in the Slobidskyi district caused a major fire. In Lyubotin, a man and a woman were injured due to a drone attack.
  • Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna. Russian forces have reportedly liberated Dvorichna.
  • Kupiansk: Under renewed heavy shelling.
  • Vovchansk: Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack.
  • Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire was reported at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in the north of the region.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast. They also report a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. A drone is reported in the suburbs of Kharkiv. A high-speed target was reported in the region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a high-speed target moving from Sumy Oblast towards Poltava Oblast.
  • Transport of Ukrainian forces is under attack by drones of the «Hart» brigade near Vovchansk.
• Zaporizhzhia Region:
  • An air raid alert has been declared and later lifted, then declared again and canceled.
  • At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region.
  • Russia attacked the region 401 times overnight.
  • Russian forces reportedly destroyed a group of foreign mercenaries near Orikhiv.
  • Two people пострадали in result of Russian shelling of Zaporizhzhia and Zaporizhzhia region.
  • Soldiers of the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade of the Security Service of Ukraine organized a "Goooood morning" for the Russians on the western outskirts of Novovasylivka.
• Drone Warfare:
  • Extensive Drone Activity: Confirmed drone attacks inside Russia, with a massive overnight attack involving over 100 drones targeting central Russia and the south. Most were reportedly intercepted, but some hit their targets, including an oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod. New reports of drone movements towards Chernihiv, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, Starokonstantinov, Bereznegovatoye, Pavlograd, Balakleya, Zlatopol, Zhytomyr, Fastov, Boyarka, Mirgorod, Priluki, Nezhin, Vylkove, Izmail, and Odesa Oblast indicate a potential expansion and intensification of the conflict. Confirmed attacks on Odesa and Bryansk resulted in damage to residential buildings and a fire near the "Druzhba" oil pipeline distribution station. Ukrainian forces report that Russia launched 100 drones overnight, with 65 shot down by Ukrainian air defenses. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces deploying 350 FPV drones to various units. New groups of enemy drones have been reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region.
  • Bryansk (Russia): Two Ukrainian drones were shot down. Reports that drones attacked Mamai, with an explosion near the "Druzhba" oil pipeline distribution station. The region is reportedly under attack, with a series of explosions in the sky above the city. A fire has broken out in one of the districts. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted several Ukrainian drones. 26 drones were destroyed overnight. Five Ukrainian drones were destroyed overnight. Three Ukrainian drones were shot down in the Bryansk region overnight.
  • Tver (Russia): A fuel transfer station was reportedly attacked. A drone was shot down.
  • Belgorod (Russia): A private house was attacked by a drone. One Ukrainian drone was shot down in the Belgorod region overnight. A man died due to a drone attack in Malinovka. Two settlements in the region were attacked by Ukrainian drones, resulting in three civilian casualties.
  • Several drones were shot down on the approach to Smolensk.
  • A drone was destroyed over Lake Ladoga, with no reported damage or casualties.
  • Massive Drone Attack: Over 100 drones attacked central Russia and the south overnight. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that 104 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed across multiple regions. The enemy reportedly targeted oil refineries, enterprises, and the Smolensk nuclear power plant. Most attacks were repelled, but some fires broke out. Drones attacked the fourth largest oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod. Ukrainian sources confirm that at least four drones hit the Kstovo oil refinery, causing a large-scale fire. Video evidence suggests a strike on a nighttime industrial site, identified as the Kstovo oil refinery.
  • Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region. All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region. Ukrainian forces shot down 37 drones overnight.
  • Numerous reports indicate a significant number of drones active across Ukraine, with specific movements noted.
  • Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region. Three drones were shot down in Sumy region overnight. All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region.
  • Ukrainian forces report destroying over 500 enemy aerial targets in the past week. Ukrainian air defense is actively engaging enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast.
  • Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate explosions during an ongoing drone attack.
    • Chernihiv and Sumy: Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy drones moving towards Chernihiv and Sumy from the northeast. The Air Force reports that drones are moving through Sumy towards Chernihiv and Poltava. Drones are moving through Poltava/Chernihiv towards Kyiv Oblast.
    • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: One drone is flying between Ivano-Frankivsk and Kolomyia.
    • Ternopil Oblast: Two drones have moved from Khmelnytskyi Oblast to the south of Ternopil Oblast.
    • Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast.
    • Kirovohrad Oblast: Three drones are in Pervomaisk district. Another drone is in the eastern part of the region, moving west.
    • Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is circling east of Smila. Two drones are north of Uman, moving west. A drone is reported north of Kamyanske, moving north. Another drone is reported in the north of the region, moving west.
    • Chernihiv Oblast: Two drones are in the Nizhyn area. One drone is moving towards Chernihiv from the northeast. Other drones are reported in the west and east of the region, moving west.
    • Kyiv Oblast: Drones are reported on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts. Debris from a downed drone fell near a metro station in Kyiv, damaging a building.
    • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are reported in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast.
    • Vinnytsia Oblast: Drones are reported in the northeast and northwest of Vinnytsia Oblast.
    • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Drones are reported in the west of Khmelnytskyi Oblast. One drone is moving north-west.
    • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Drones are reported in the center of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.
    • Mykolaiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the northwest of Mykolaiv Oblast. A drone was detected in the region, changing direction towards the region. A drone reportedly flew over Snihurivka heading south. A drone is approaching Mykolaiv via Voskresenske. A drone flew past Mykolaiv and headed towards Voznesenskyi district. One drone flew past Mykolaiv and moved on to Voznesenskyi district.
    • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the west and southwest of Chernihiv Oblast. A drone is in the south of Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast.
    • Poltava Oblast: A drone is reported in the north, constantly changing course. The death toll in Poltava has risen to eleven. The death toll in Poltava has risen to twelve, including two children, with seventeen injured and twenty-two rescued.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported on the presence of Russian warships and missile carriers in the Black Sea, Sea of Azov, and Mediterranean Sea.
  • Ukrainian forces report repelling a drone attack in the Rostov region.
  • Russian air defense reportedly continues to shoot down drones launched by Ukrainian forces in multiple regions. Five drones were destroyed over the Smolensk region, two over the Belgorod region, two over the Bryansk region, and one over Crimea. Five Ukrainian drones were destroyed over the Bryansk, Belgorod, and Kursk regions overnight.
  • Russian security
• Other Regions:
  • Kherson: Five people, including two children, were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on a minibus in Kherson.
• New Developments:
  • SVR Report: The SVR (Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia) reports that NATO is considering a change of leadership in Ukraine, possibly using a pseudo-democratic election in the fall. They also want to disclose information about Zelensky allegedly misappropriating 1.5 billion dollars in military aid and his involvement in selling weapons to various groups in Africa. NATO wants to "freeze" the conflict and maintain Ukraine as an anti-Russian foothold.
  • Citizenship Issues: British volunteer Aiden Aslin, who fought in Mariupol in 2022 and was captured by Russian forces, is still unable to obtain Ukrainian citizenship despite continuing to serve Ukraine. A social media post highlights the difficulties faced by foreign fighters in obtaining Ukrainian citizenship, despite their service. This is presented as a morale issue and a potential hindrance to recruitment.
  • AfD Calls for Sanctions Removal: The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has called for the removal of economic sanctions against Russia and the repair of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. They also stated that Ukraine should be a neutral state, not part of the EU or NATO.
  • Explosions near TCC Buildings: Explosions were reported near TCC (Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Center) buildings in Pavlograd and Rivne, Ukraine. These incidents are attributed to public frustration with the TCC and mobilization policies.
  • Toretsk Suicide Incident: A video from the "Butusov Plus" Telegram channel shows a Russian soldier, who lost his legs after a drone attack, apparently committing suicide by shooting himself in the head. The incident reportedly took place in the Toretsk direction.
  • Polish President's Concerns: Polish President Duda expressed concern that the end of the conflict in Ukraine could lead to a surge in international organized crime due to the return of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers with psychological trauma and limited job prospects.
  • Trump-Putin Communication: US President Trump had recent audio contact with a person appointed as president of Russia, who looks like Vladimir Putin. Trump's team set conditions for communication, including the complete absence of North Korean military personnel near the front line and "de-escalation" of attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Negotiations are ongoing regarding a possible truce.
  • Executions of Ukrainian Soldiers: Andriy Sybiha, head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, reported that at least 79 cases of executions of Ukrainian soldiers by Russian forces have been confirmed in the past six months.
  • Laser Weapons Claim: Commander of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces Vadym Sukharevskyi claimed that Ukraine has laser weapons capable of striking certain objects at a certain altitude.
  • Market Declines: The introduction of tariffs by Trump against Canada, China, and Mexico has reportedly caused market declines, according to Bloomberg.
  • Transnistria Gas Supply: Natural gas supplied to Transnistria through EU assistance will last for 10 days, according to Vadim Krasnoselsky, the president of the unrecognized republic. The gas will be paid for with a loan from Russia.
  • Alleged USAID Dismantling: The Alex Parker Returns Telegram channel alleges that Trump and Musk dismantled USAID, benefiting Russia.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces making significant advances, particularly in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is under complete Russian control, and the situation in Pokrovsk is highly precarious, with Russian forces within 2 kilometers of Myrnohrad and having severed one of the two routes connecting Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro. Fierce battles are ongoing near Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, and Baranivka, and Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk, advancing and blocking Ukrainian supply lines.

In the Luhansk region, Russian forces are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic, with battles initiated near Bohuslavka and Kupiansk under renewed heavy shelling.

In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and heavy fighting continuing near Nikolsky.

Drone warfare continues to intensify, with confirmed drone attacks inside Russia and multiple reports of drone movements across various Ukrainian regions. Ukrainian forces claim to have shot down a significant number of Russian drones.

The reported contact between Trump and a person appointed as president of Russia, who looks like Vladimir Putin, along with conditions set for communication, suggests ongoing negotiations regarding a possible truce.

The claim by the Ukrainian Commander of Unmanned Systems Forces about possessing laser weapons capable of striking certain objects at a certain altitude, if true, represents a significant development in Ukraine's military capabilities.

The SVR report alleging NATO's consideration of a leadership change in Ukraine and accusations against Zelensky, along with the AfD's call for the removal of sanctions against Russia, add further complexity to the political landscape surrounding the conflict.

The alleged dismantling of USAID by Trump and Musk, as reported by the Alex Parker Returns Telegram channel, raises questions about the future of US foreign aid and its potential impact on the conflict.

The situation remains highly volatile, with significant military, political, and economic developments shaping the course of the conflict. The potential for further escalation or a negotiated settlement remains uncertain.