Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 1, 2025, 23:08 UTC

Major Updates

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed under complete Russian control. Russian forces are advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Pokrovsk: The situation is highly precarious. Russian forces are within 2 kilometers of Myrnohrad, with fierce battles near Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, and Baranivka. One of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro has been cut off. The most intense fighting is near Yelyzavetivka and Vodyane Druhe. Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance. Russian forces are blocking the ability of Ukrainian forces to supply near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk).
Kramatorsk Direction: Russian forces have advanced south of Rozlyv and expanded their control in the Dachne area. Increased Russian assault activities reported.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area. Russian units have reportedly taken a position on top of a spoil tip on the western outskirts of the Blok-9 mine. The bulk of the Severnyi district is under Russian military control.
Kurakhove: Most of the city has been captured. Heavy fighting is reported in the eastern part of Andriivka. To the west of Kurakhove, Russian troops are attempting to advance in the Dachne and Andriivka areas. Half of the Dachne settlement has been cleared of enemy forces.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses are under immense strain, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts and near several mines. Ukrainian forces report battles for the "Toretska" mine, with 90-95% of the city under Russian control.
Siversk - Verkhnokamyanske: Active combat operations are taking place in the area of Siversk. Russian forces launched an attack towards Verkhnokamyanske, resulting in the landing of troops in the central part of the settlement. Russian forces reportedly advanced 1.5 km in the Siversk direction and occupied new positions in Verkhnokamyanske.
Other Locations: Russian forces are making advances near Uspenivka. Russian assault groups have advanced to the area of Alekseevka. Fierce fighting is reported in Zelenovka. Russian forces report further advances near Dachne, Andriivka, Slov'yanka, and Novoandriivka.
Deep State Update: Enemy forces are persistently attacking in the Pokrovsk sector, especially near Sribne, south of Nadiivka, south and east of Udachne, west and east near Kotlyne, and southwest of Zverove. Partial successes are reported, with the situation evolving in many areas. A Ukrainian Defense Forces unit has reportedly performed well in Udachne, replacing a newly formed brigade. Russian forces are reinforcing their units in Novoelizavetivka and Novovasylivka due to resistance from the 59th Separate Motorized Brigade. Reinforcements are also being deployed to the Shevchenko-Dachenske area due to heavy losses.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, Zakhidne, and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River.
Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka.
In the direction of Hrekivka, Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.
Russian forces have approached the northern outskirts of Kupiansk, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are deploying reinforcements.
Bohuslavka: Russian forces have initiated battles.

Kursk Region

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory. Russian forces report the capture of several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya. The liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino has been confirmed.
Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky.
Sudzha: Russian forces are bypassing the city from the south. A Ukrainian activist and local media report that Russian forces dropped a FAB on the Sudzha boarding school. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed the Russian airstrike on the boarding school, stating it was a deliberate attack with a guided aerial bomb (KAB). They emphasize that the Russian side was aware of the presence of civilians, including women and children, in the building. A spokesperson for the Ukrainian military command confirmed the attack, stating 95 people were trapped, mostly elderly and bedridden. There's also speculation that Ukrainian forces attacked the school, previously used as a concentration camp and torture chamber, to cover up their crimes as the front approaches. The death toll in Sudzha has risen to four, with 84 rescued and four in critical condition. Russian air defenses detected six HIMARS rockets launched from Malaya Rybitsa in the Sumy region towards Sudzha. They also claim that Russian aviation was not operating in the area due to bad weather.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian assault force during an attempted landing near Tetkino.
Reports of significant North Korean casualties.
Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces have suffered significant losses, amounting to over 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, and numerous other military vehicles and equipment.
Russian forces are advancing in the Kursk region, with ongoing battles near Sverdlykove and in nearby forested areas.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly deployed over 100 paratroopers to the Sudzhansky district for a counterattack near Nikolsky.
Reports indicate that contractors in the Kursk region have allegedly embezzled over 3 billion rubles allocated for the construction of fortifications.
The landing attempt of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on two armored personnel carriers was thwarted in Makhnovka.
Nikolaevo-Daryino has been cleared.
Battles are ongoing near Pohrebky.
Ussuri paratroopers are displaying captured trophies and the restoration of a captured Ukrainian BMP-2 in the border areas of the Kursk region.
Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, with Russian forces approaching Malaya Loknya and Ukrainian forces counterattacking.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks: Multiple reports of drone attacks and explosions in Kharkiv and surrounding areas. A fire broke out at an energy facility. Overnight, a drone attack targeted a civilian enterprise in the Novobavarskyi district, causing a large fire. Two drones fell in the Kyivskyi district. In the Rohanska community, a drone attack destroyed a private house and garage, injuring 2 people. In Shestakove, a drone attack caused a fire in a destroyed private house, with no reported casualties.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna. Russian forces have reportedly liberated Dvorichna.
Kupiansk: Under renewed heavy shelling.
Vovchansk: Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack.
Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire was reported at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in the north of Kharkiv region.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast.

Zaporizhzhia Region

An air raid alert has been declared and later lifted.
At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Russia attacked the Zaporizhzhia region 401 times overnight.
Russian forces reportedly destroyed a group of foreign mercenaries near Orikhiv.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Drone Activity: Confirmed drone attacks inside Russia, with a massive overnight attack involving over 100 drones targeting central Russia and the south. Most drones were reportedly intercepted, but some hit their targets, including an oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod. New reports of drone movements towards Chernihiv, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, Starokonstantinov, Bereznegovatoye, Pavlograd, Balakleya, Zlatopol, Zhytomyr, Fastov, Boyarka, Mirgorod, Priluki, Nezhin, Vylkove, Izmail, and Odesa Oblast indicate a potential expansion and intensification of the drone conflict. Confirmed drone attacks on Odesa and Bryansk resulted in damage to residential buildings and a fire near the "Druzhba" oil pipeline distribution station, respectively.
Bryansk (Russia): Two Ukrainian drones were shot down. Reports that drones attacked the village of Mamai, with an explosion near the "Druzhba" oil pipeline distribution station. The Bryansk region is reportedly under attack, with a series of explosions in the sky above the city. A fire has broken out in one of the districts. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted several Ukrainian drones over the Bryansk region. 26 drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region overnight.
Tver (Russia): A fuel transfer station was reportedly attacked by Ukrainian drones. A drone was shot down.
Belgorod (Russia): A private house was attacked by a drone.
Several drones were shot down on the approach to Smolensk.
A drone was destroyed over Lake Ladoga, with no reported damage or casualties.
Massive Drone Attack: Over 100 drones attacked central Russia and the south overnight. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that 104 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed across multiple regions. The enemy reportedly targeted oil refineries, enterprises, and the Smolensk nuclear power plant. Most attacks were repelled, but some fires broke out at the targeted facilities. Drones attacked the fourth largest oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod. Ukrainian sources confirm that at least four drones hit the Kstovo oil refinery, causing a large-scale fire.
Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region. All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region. Ukrainian forces shot down 37 drones overnight. New groups of enemy drones have been reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region.
There are numerous reports indicating a significant number of drones active across Ukraine, with specific movements noted.
Four drones are heading towards or through Vylkove. Four drones flew past Vylkove towards Kiliia.
Four drones are moving from the Black Sea towards the Izmail district.
Two drones are moving from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
One drone is in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast, with a northwesterly course.
Two drones are moving from Zhytomyr Oblast towards or through Shepetivka.
One drone is moving from the Bilotserkivskyi district to Zhytomyr Oblast.
One drone is approaching Kyiv via Brovary.
One drone is north of Kyiv Oblast, heading towards or through Hostomel.
One drone is heading towards or through Vasylkiv.
Two drones are in the east of Kyiv Oblast.
Four drones are circling in the east of Chernihiv Oblast.
One drone is in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast, with a western course.
New groups of "Shahed" drones are moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast.
Three new drones are moving from the Black Sea towards the Izmail district.
New alerts for multiple regions, including Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Boryspil, Vasylkiv, and Kyiv.
Confirmed drone movements across various regions.
Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region. Three drones were shot down in Sumy region overnight. All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region.
Ukrainian forces report destroying over 500 enemy aerial targets in the past week. Ukrainian air defense is actively engaging enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast.
Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate explosions during an ongoing drone attack.
Chernihiv and Sumy: Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy drones moving towards Chernihiv and Sumy from the northeast. The Air Force reports that drones are moving through Sumy towards Chernihiv and Poltava.
Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: One drone is flying between Ivano-Frankivsk and Kolomyia.
Ternopil Oblast: Two drones have moved from Khmelnytskyi Oblast to the south of Ternopil Oblast.
Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast.
Kirovohrad Oblast: Three drones are in Pervomaisk district. Another drone is in the eastern part of the region, moving west.
Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is circling east of Smila. Two drones are north of Uman, moving west. A drone is reported north of Kamyanske, moving north. Another drone is reported in the north of the region, moving west.
Chernihiv Oblast: Two drones are in the Nizhyn area. One drone is moving towards Chernihiv from the northeast. Other drones are reported in the west and east of the region, moving west.
Kyiv Oblast: Drones are reported on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts. Debris from a downed drone fell near a metro station in Kyiv, damaging a building.
Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are reported in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast.
Vinnytsia Oblast: Drones are reported in the northeast and northwest of Vinnytsia Oblast.
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Drones are reported in the west of Khmelnytskyi Oblast. One drone is moving north-west.
Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Drones are reported in the center of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the northwest of Mykolaiv Oblast. A drone was detected in the region, changing direction towards the region. A drone reportedly flew over Snihurivka heading south. A drone is approaching Mykolaiv via Voskresenske.
Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the west and southwest of Chernihiv Oblast. A drone is in the south of Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast.
Poltava Oblast: A drone is reported in the north, constantly changing course. The death toll in Poltava has risen to eleven.
An Egyptian volunteer fighting for Russia was seriously wounded after saving a comrade.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on the presence of Russian warships and missile carriers in the Black Sea, Sea of Azov, and Mediterranean Sea.
Ukrainian forces report repelling a drone attack in the Rostov region.
Ukrainian forces report that Russia launched 100 drones overnight, with 65 shot down by Ukrainian air defenses.
Russian air defense reportedly continues to shoot down drones launched by Ukrainian forces in multiple regions. Five drones were destroyed over the Smolensk region, two over the Belgorod region, two over the Bryansk region, and one over Crimea.
Russian security forces detained a man in Bashkiria who was attempting to join the "Freedom of Russia Legion" (banned in Russia) and cross the border into Ukraine.
Russian forces report destroying a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone with a sniper rifle in the Kursk region. Another "Baba Yaga" drone was eliminated.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly transferred a sabotage and reconnaissance group to Belopolye (Sumy Oblast) on armored fighting vehicles, which was detected and destroyed by Russian drone operators.
"Birds of Magyar" unit reports destroying 4,387 enemy targets in one month, including 1,298 enemy soldiers, 66 tanks, 174 armored combat vehicles, 87 artillery systems, 17 MLRS, 9 EW systems, 506 vehicles, and 205 fortified positions. 100 new drone crews will be trained by the end of March.
Sumy Oblast: New groups of drones are entering the region. An explosion was heard near Sumy. Seven drones are reported in the north of the region.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian "Kozak" armored vehicle with a "Lancet" loitering munition in the Kursk region.
Poltava Oblast: A drone is reported over the city. A drone is flying over Zolotonosha towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: A drone is flying over Zlatopil.
Chernihiv Oblast: Three drones are reported in the north of the region. A drone is reported near or over Shostka.

New Developments and Analysis

Confirmation of Russian Airstrike on Sudzha Boarding School: The Ukrainian General Staff and the Air Force have confirmed the Russian airstrike on the boarding school in Sudzha, Kursk region, stating that it was a deliberate attack with a guided aerial bomb (KAB). The Ukrainian General Staff published a video of the aftermath of the Russian attack on Sudzha. The Ukrainian Air Force published screenshots from the "Virage-Tablet" system, showing the trajectory of the Russian guided aerial bomb. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces committed a war crime by carrying out a targeted missile attack on a boarding school in Sudzha.
Ukrainian Military Command Spokesperson's Statement: The spokesperson for the Ukrainian military command in Sudzha, Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, confirmed the attack, stating that 95 people were trapped under the rubble, mostly elderly and bedridden.
Reports of Fires at Gas Facilities: Russian sources report fires at gas facilities in the Poltava region following a nighttime missile strike.
ISW Assessment: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that the actions of the Russian command indicate that Putin does not intend to end the war in the near future.
Drone Warfare Intensification:
- Ukrainian air defenses shot down 37 drones overnight, with new groups reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region.
- Numerous reports indicate a significant number of drones active across Ukraine, with specific movements noted towards Vylkove, Kiliia, Izmail, Khmelnytskyi, Shepetivka, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Hostomel, Vasylkiv, Chernihiv, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Poltava.
- New alerts for multiple regions, including Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Boryspil, Vasylkiv, and Kyiv.
- Confirmed drone movements across various regions.
- Explosions reported in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast during an ongoing drone attack.
- Ukrainian forces report destroying over 500 enemy aerial targets in the past week, with active engagement of enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast.
- The "Birds of Magyar" unit reports destroying 4,387 enemy targets in one month. 100 new drone crews will be trained by the end of March.
Casualties: The death toll in Poltava has risen to eleven.
Explosions in Kharkiv and Sumy: Explosions were heard in Kharkiv and near Sumy. The enemy reportedly struck the Slobidskyi district of Kharkiv with a drone.
Statements Regarding the Sudzha Attack:
- The Russian Ministry of Defense and other Russian sources continue to assert that the Ukrainian Armed Forces committed a war crime by launching a targeted missile strike on the boarding school in Sudzha.
- Russian State Duma member Alexander Khinshtein described the attack as an "inhuman atrocity".
- The Ukrainian side, represented by the Air Force and the General Staff, maintains that the attack was carried out by Russian aviation using a guided aerial bomb. They have presented screenshots from the "Virage-Tablet" system as evidence.
Drone Activity in Kyiv Oblast: Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast.
Alleged HIMARS Launches: Russian sources, including the Ministry of Defense and military bloggers, claim that Ukrainian forces launched HIMARS rockets from the Sumy region towards Sudzha. They assert that Russian air defense systems detected six launches and that the attack was carried out by NATO-trained personnel. A video allegedly showing the launches has been circulated.
Destruction of Ukrainian Equipment: A video from the Colonelcassad Telegram channel shows the destruction of Ukrainian equipment in the area of Dachnoe by the 150th Motorized Rifle Division.
Improvised Military Technology: Several images from the Colonelcassad Telegram channel showcase various improvised military vehicles and platforms.
Propaganda and Information Warfare: Both sides are actively engaged in propaganda and information warfare. The Russian side is using the Sudzha incident to portray Ukraine as a "terrorist" state, while the Ukrainian side is highlighting Russian aggression and the use of guided bombs against civilian targets.
Continued Drone Activity: New reports indicate continued and widespread drone activity across Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones, particularly in Kyiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports multiple drone movements from the north and south, posing threats to various regions, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad.
Intensified Attacks in the Pokrovsk Sector: Russian forces are intensifying their attacks in the Pokrovsk sector, with notable activity near Sribne, Nadiivka, Udachne, Kotlyne, and Zverove. The Deep State report indicates partial Russian successes and highlights the fierce resistance of Ukrainian forces, particularly a unit in Udachne that replaced a newly formed brigade. The report also mentions the need for Russian reinforcements in Novoelizavetivka and Novovasylivka due to strong Ukrainian opposition from the 59th Separate Motorized Brigade.
Geopolitical Statements: Russian Ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, stated that Russia will not allow the Baltic Sea to become an internal NATO sea, commenting on the organization's decision to patrol the area. This statement underscores the escalating tensions between Russia and NATO and highlights the strategic importance of the Baltic Sea region.
US Tariffs on Russian Energy Resources: The White House announced that the US will impose 10% tariffs on energy resources from Canada and 25% on other goods. This move is likely to further strain US-Russia relations and could have economic repercussions for both countries.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining the initiative and making significant advances, particularly in the Donetsk region. The capture of Velyka Novosilka is a major setback for Ukraine, and the situation in Pokrovsk and Toretsk is increasingly critical. The confirmation of the Russian airstrike on the boarding school in Sudzha adds another layer of complexity to the conflict, with accusations of deliberate targeting of civilians. The ISW assessment suggests a protracted conflict, with Russia prepared for a long war of attrition. The intensification of drone warfare, with widespread attacks across multiple regions and confirmed strikes inside Russia, indicates a new phase in the conflict, characterized by increased use of unmanned aerial systems and potential expansion of the conflict zone. The Ukrainian forces continue to resist, with reported successes in repelling attacks and destroying enemy equipment, but the overall situation remains challenging. The international community's response, particularly regarding the provision of military aid and the enforcement of sanctions, will be crucial in determining the future course of the conflict. The new messages add further evidence to support this. The "Birds of Magyar" unit's report highlights the intensity of the drone warfare and the significant losses inflicted on Russian forces. The confirmation of the Russian airstrike on the boarding school in Sudzha and the Ukrainian military command spokesperson's statement underscore the targeting of civilians and the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the conflict zone. The reports of fires at gas facilities in the Poltava region suggest a Russian strategy to disrupt Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The ISW assessment reinforces the expectation of a prolonged conflict, with Russia preparing for a long-term engagement. The new information about the attack on Sudzha further complicates the situation, with conflicting reports and accusations from both sides. The use of HIMARS rockets, if confirmed, would indicate a significant escalation and could trigger further responses from Russia. The rising death toll in Poltava highlights the ongoing human cost of the conflict. The new information regarding the attack on the boarding school in Sudzha adds another layer to the conflict, with both sides presenting conflicting narratives and evidence. The Ukrainian side has presented screenshots from the "Virage-Tablet" system to support their claim that the attack was carried out by Russian aviation, while the Russian side has accused Ukraine of launching HIMARS rockets from the Sumy region. The situation is further complicated by the ongoing information war and the use of propaganda by both sides. The involvement of drone warfare, particularly in Kyiv Oblast, and the destruction of Ukrainian equipment near Dachnoe underscore the continued intensity of the fighting. The images of improvised military technology suggest a trend towards asymmetrical warfare and the use of locally produced or modified equipment. The new reports of continued and widespread drone activity across Ukraine, as indicated by the Ukrainian Air Force's updates, underscore the persistent and evolving threat posed by unmanned aerial systems. The reported drone movements from both the north and south, targeting regions such as Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad, suggest a coordinated and multi-pronged aerial assault strategy by Russian forces. This widespread drone activity necessitates a heightened state of alert for Ukrainian air defenses and requires a flexible and adaptive response to counter the threat.

The intensification of Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk sector, as detailed in the Deep State report, indicates a focused effort to gain ground in this strategically important area. The reported partial successes of Russian forces, coupled with the fierce resistance of Ukrainian units, highlight the volatile and contested nature of the frontline in this region. The need for Russian reinforcements in Novoelizavetivka and Novovasylivka suggests that Ukrainian forces are inflicting significant casualties and putting up a strong defense. The mention of a specific Ukrainian unit performing well in Udachne underscores the importance of individual unit effectiveness in this phase of the conflict.

The geopolitical statements from Russian Ambassador Vladimir Barbin regarding the Baltic Sea and the White House's announcement of tariffs on Russian energy resources add a broader context to the conflict. These statements highlight the ongoing tensions between Russia and NATO, as well as the economic measures being employed by the US to exert pressure on Russia. These developments could have further implications for the conflict in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical landscape.

Situation Report