Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 1, 2025, 22:08 UTC
Major Updates
Donetsk Region
Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed under complete Russian control. The Russian Ministry of Defense officially declared the liberation of the settlement. Russian forces are advancing from Velyka Novosilka towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Encirclement is complete, with Russian flags raised throughout the town.
Pokrovsk: The situation is highly precarious. Russian forces are within 2 kilometers of Myrnohrad, with fierce battles near Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, and Baranivka. Residents of Myrnohrad are urged to evacuate. Hospitals in Kryvyi Rih are being upgraded with shelters and backup power. Russian forces report advances towards Pershe Travnia (Leontovychi), Novosergievka, and Lysivka. Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. One of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro has been cut off. The most intense fighting is near Yelyzavetivka and Vodyane Druhe. Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance. Powerful strikes have been reported in Pokrovsk throughout the day. Active fighting is reported near Krasnoarmiisk. Russian forces are blocking the ability of Ukrainian forces to supply near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). In the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces have advanced south of Rozlyv and expanded their control in the Dachne area. The enemy is paying special attention to this area, with the most motivated units defending it. The enemy's positions are equipped with engineering structures. The area directly covers Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) and Dmytrov (Myrnohrad). The main defensive positions are located on the dominant heights. Fierce battles are ongoing for Lysivka, where, by introducing reserves, Russian forces are squeezing the enemy out of the northern part, for the strong point north of Zelene, west of Chunyshyn and Novoukrainka, and in the direction of Sukhyi Yar along the railway branches. Some Russian FPV drones are operating deep in the enemy's defenses, up to Rodynske. In the area of Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, the enemy is introducing reserves and periodically counterattacking. The main efforts of the Russian command are focused on flanking the agglomeration. The situation in the area is relatively static. Russian forces have reportedly taken a Ukrainian stronghold on the eastern outskirts of Andriivka. Ukrainian forces report repelling 7 Russian assaults in the Pokrovsk direction. An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka. Fighting continues in Zverevo.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area. Fighting continues on the outskirts. There are reports of battles on the southwestern outskirts of the city. Russian forces are advancing towards Chasiv Yar from the southwest. There have been no significant changes in the last 24 hours, but the initiative remains with the Russian forces, who continue the assault on Chasiv Yar. Russian units have reportedly taken a position on top of a spoil tip on the western outskirts of the Blok-9 mine. The bulk of the Severnyi district in Chasiv Yar is under Russian military control. Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Chasiv Yar. There are reports of battles on the southwestern outskirts of Chasiv Yar.
Kurakhove: Most of the city has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. Russian forces are advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk. Heavy fighting is reported in the eastern part of Andriivka, with Russian forces advancing from Shevchenko and Petropavlivka. To the west of Kurakhove, Russian troops are attempting to advance in the Dachne and Andriivka areas. Russian troops are trying to encircle Dachne to the west of Kurakhove. Half of the settlement has been cleared of enemy forces. Fighting is ongoing in the center of Dachnoe, with reports of a Russian breakthrough from the east. Fighting is reported near Petropavlivka, Dachnoe and Sukhykh Yal.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses are under immense strain, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts and near several mines. Intense fighting is ongoing on the outskirts of Toretsk. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are holding on to the last defense hubs in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). Battles are taking place in the northern part of the city in the buildings south of the Fomikha mine. Ukrainian forces report battles for the "Toretska" mine, with 90-95% of the city under Russian control.
Siversk - Verkhnokamyanske: Active combat operations are taking place in the area of Siversk. Russian forces launched an attack with a motorized rifle unit towards Verkhnokamyanske, resulting in the landing of troops in the central part of the settlement. Ukrainian positions were assaulted, and a residential area was cleared by a Russian assault group. Russian forces reportedly advanced 1.5 km in the Siversk direction and occupied new positions in Verkhnokamyanske.
Kramatorsk Direction: Russian forces have advanced south of Rozlyv and expanded their control in the Dachne area. In Kramatorsk, 13 people were injured due to a Russian attack, including two children. A person was killed in Ivanopil, and another person was wounded in Chasiv Yar. Increased Russian assault activities reported. A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk.
Other Locations: Russian forces are making advances. Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces. Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka. Russian assault groups have advanced to the area of Alekseevka. Fierce fighting is reported in Zelenovka. Russian forces report further advances near Dachne, Andriivka, Slov'yanka, and Novoandriivka.
Luhansk Region
Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, Zakhidne, and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River.
Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and 400m in the direction of Hrekivka.
In the direction of Hrekivka, Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.
Russian forces have approached the northern outskirts of Kupiansk, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are deploying reinforcements.
Russian forces have reportedly taken Ukrainian forces into an "operational cauldron" in Nova Kruhliakivka.
Bohuslavka: Russian forces have initiated battles. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk.
Kursk Region
The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and inflicting heavy losses. Russian forces report the capture of several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya. The liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino has been confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky.
Sudzha: Russian forces are bypassing the city from the south. A Ukrainian activist and local media report that Russian forces dropped a FAB on the Sudzha boarding school, with 94 people under the rubble. This information was later confirmed by the Ukrainian military. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed the Russian airstrike on the boarding school, stating it was a deliberate attack with a guided aerial bomb (KAB). They emphasize that the Russian side was aware of the presence of civilians, including women and children, in the building. The Ukrainian General Staff published a video of the aftermath, showing severe damage and ongoing search and rescue efforts. A spokesperson for the Ukrainian military command confirmed the attack, stating 95 people were trapped, mostly elderly and bedridden. Russian sources report fires at gas facilities in the Poltava region following a nighttime missile strike, specifically the Yablunivske gas processing plant and the Yarivka gas field near Sencha. There's also speculation that Ukrainian forces attacked the school, previously used as a concentration camp and torture chamber, to cover up their crimes as the front approaches. Ukrainian and Russian sources report conflicting information about the attack on Sudzha. Ukrainian sources claim it was a deliberate Russian airstrike on a civilian facility, while Russian sources suggest it was a Ukrainian attack, possibly using HIMARS missiles. The situation is further complicated by reports of previous atrocities committed by Ukrainian forces in the area. Independent verification is needed to determine the truth. The death toll in Sudzha has risen to four, with 84 rescued and four in critical condition. A video from ASTRA confirms 4 deaths and 88 injuries (4 severe) from the attack on the boarding school in Sudzha. Russian air defenses detected six HIMARS rockets launched from Malaya Rybitsa in the Sumy region towards Sudzha. They also claim that Russian aviation was not operating in the area due to bad weather.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian assault force during an attempted landing near Tetkino.
Reports of significant North Korean casualties, with estimates ranging from 300 to 4,000 killed.
Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults in the Kursk region.
Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces have suffered significant losses, amounting to over 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, and numerous other military vehicles and equipment.
Russian forces are advancing in the Kursk region, with ongoing battles near Sverdlykove and in nearby forested areas.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly deployed over 100 paratroopers to the Sudzhansky district for a counterattack near Nikolsky.
Reports indicate that contractors in the Kursk region have allegedly embezzled over 3 billion rubles allocated for the construction of fortifications.
There are fierce battles in Sverdlikovo and the surrounding forest belts.
There is an advance in the north of the Sudzhansky district.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are transferring all possible reserves to the Sudzhansky district, including Ukrainian border guards from the 94th border detachment of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine.
The landing attempt of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on two armored personnel carriers was thwarted in Makhnovka. The vehicles were destroyed along with the personnel.
Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a border area of the Kursk region.
Nikolaevo-Daryino has been cleared, with the enemy making careless and unsuccessful counterattacks. Heavy fighting in the eastern part of the settlement.
Battles are ongoing near Pohrebky.
In the Kursk region, the enemy delivered up to a company of militants to Nikolsky. After entering the area, the enemy troops tried to attack, our troops repulsed the attack with fire, the enemy suffered losses of up to 50 people. From Nikolsky, they are pressing in the direction of Russkoye Porechnoye to cut off the enemy grouping at Malaya Lokna and to the north. In the northern part of Russkoye Porechnoye, they struck a group of the enemy, resulting in the loss of one AFV and about 20 personnel in the temporary deployment point. Crimean paratroopers are pressing on Sverdlikovo, where the paratroopers' UAV operators also hit an enemy tank. The elimination of Ukrainians from the nearest forest plantations is ongoing.
Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults in the Kursk region.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Su-34 bomber.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian BMP with an FPV drone in the Kursk border area.
Russian forces are destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
Russian airborne forces are destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Makhnovka.
Ussuri paratroopers are displaying captured trophies and the restoration of a captured Ukrainian BMP-2 in the border areas of the Kursk region.
Ka-52M helicopters for airstrikes: Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters for airstrikes.
Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold: A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region.
Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, with Russian forces approaching Malaya Loknya and Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the Kursk region for 100 days. The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
The acting governor of the Kursk region met with refugees from areas occupied by Ukrainian forces.
Kharkiv Region
Drone Attacks: Multiple reports of drone attacks and explosions in Kharkiv and surrounding areas. A fire broke out at an energy facility. Overnight, a drone attack targeted a civilian enterprise in the Novobavarskyi district, causing a large fire, damage to a gas pipe and 5 vehicles. Two civilians suffered acute stress reactions. Two drones fell in the Kyivskyi district. In the Rohanska community, a drone attack destroyed a private house and garage, injuring 2 people. In Shestakove, a drone attack caused a fire in a destroyed private house, with no reported casualties. A drone struck the Slobidskyi district of Kharkiv.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna. Russian forces have reportedly liberated Dvorichna.
Kupiansk: Under renewed heavy shelling. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm the city.
Vovchansk: Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack.
Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire was reported at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack. The Ukrainian Air Force reports possible anti-aircraft activity against an enemy drone. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of an enemy drone approaching Kharkiv from the northwest. A high-speed target was reported in the region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a high-speed target moving from Sumy Oblast towards Poltava Oblast.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in the north of Kharkiv region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Dobropillya in the Donetsk region. Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast.
In the Kharkiv region, the coordinated efforts of the "West-AKHMAT" battalion and the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs in the Kurchaloyevsky district of the Chechen Republic, under the leadership of Ismail and Rustam Aguyev, alongside the 116th Special Purpose Brigade "Stalnaya" of the Russian Guard, are ongoing.
Zaporizhzhia Region
An air raid alert has been declared and later lifted.
At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Russia attacked the Zaporizhzhia region 401 times overnight.
Russian forces reportedly destroyed a group of foreign mercenaries, including a veteran of the Austrian special forces, near Orikhiv.
Soldiers organized a "Goooood morning" for the Russians on the western outskirts of Novovasylivka.
In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the group "Despite" of the 3rd SSO regiment, as a result of complex work, destroyed 20 invaders and captured one prisoner!
Drone Warfare
Extensive Drone Activity: Confirmed drone attacks inside Russia, with a massive overnight attack involving over 100 drones targeting central Russia and the south. Most drones were reportedly intercepted, but some hit their targets, including an oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod. New reports of drone movements towards Chernihiv, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, Starokonstantinov, Bereznegovatoye, Pavlograd, Balakleya, Zlatopol, Zhytomyr, Fastov, Boyarka, Mirgorod, Priluki, Nezhin, Vylkove, Izmail, and Odesa Oblast indicate a potential expansion and intensification of the drone conflict. Confirmed drone attacks on Odesa and Bryansk resulted in damage to residential buildings and a fire near the "Druzhba" oil pipeline distribution station, respectively. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
Bryansk (Russia): Two Ukrainian drones were shot down. Reports that drones attacked the village of Mamai, with an explosion near the "Druzhba" oil pipeline distribution station. The Bryansk region is reportedly under attack, with a series of explosions in the sky above the city. A fire has broken out in one of the districts. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted several Ukrainian drones over the Bryansk region. 26 drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region overnight. Residents of Klimovo and Novozybkov in the Bryansk region reported explosions and subsequent fires. It is alleged that drones attempted to attack the "Novozybkov" oil pumping station of the "Druzhba" pipeline. In the Bryansk region, drones attacked the Novozybkov oil pumping station of the Druzhba pipeline.
Tver (Russia): A fuel transfer station was reportedly attacked by Ukrainian drones. A drone was shot down.
Belgorod (Russia): A private house was attacked by a drone. A drone attack resulted in the deaths of a woman and a two-year-old child.
Several drones were shot down on the approach to Smolensk.
A drone was destroyed over Lake Ladoga, with no reported damage or casualties.
Massive Drone Attack: Over 100 drones attacked central Russia and the south overnight. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that 104 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed: 47 over Kursk Oblast, 27 over Bryansk Oblast, 11 over Smolensk Oblast, 7 over Tver Oblast, 4 over Belgorod Oblast, 3 over Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, 3 over Kaluga Oblast, 1 over Rostov Oblast, 1 over Leningrad Oblast. The enemy reportedly targeted oil refineries, enterprises, and the Smolensk nuclear power plant. Most attacks were repelled, but some fires broke out at the targeted facilities. Drones attacked the fourth largest oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod. Ukrainian sources confirm that at least four drones hit the Kstovo oil refinery, causing a large-scale fire.
Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region. All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region. Ukrainian forces shot down 37 drones overnight. New groups of enemy drones have been reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region. The Ukrainian Air Force reported an end to the threat of attack drones across all regions.
There are numerous reports indicating a significant number of drones active across Ukraine, with specific movements noted.
Four drones are heading towards or through Vylkove. Four drones flew past Vylkove towards Kiliia.
Four drones are moving from the Black Sea towards the Izmail district.
Two drones are moving from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
One drone is in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast, with a northwesterly course.
Two drones are moving from Zhytomyr Oblast towards or through Shepetivka.
One drone is moving from the Bilotserkivskyi district to Zhytomyr Oblast.
One drone is approaching Kyiv via Brovary.
One drone is north of Kyiv Oblast, heading towards or through Hostomel.
One drone is heading towards or through Vasylkiv.
Two drones are in the east of Kyiv Oblast.
Four drones are circling in the east of Chernihiv Oblast.
One drone is in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast, with a western course.
New groups of "Shahed" drones are moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast.
Three new drones are moving from the Black Sea towards the Izmail district.
New alerts for multiple regions, including Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Boryspil, Vasylkiv, and Kyiv.
Confirmed drone movements across various regions.
Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region. Three drones were shot down in Sumy region overnight. All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region.
Ukrainian forces report destroying over 500 enemy aerial targets in the past week. Ukrainian air defense is actively engaging enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast.
Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate explosions during an ongoing drone attack.
Chernihiv and Sumy: Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy drones moving towards Chernihiv and Sumy from the northeast. The Air Force reports that drones are moving through Sumy towards Chernihiv and Poltava.
Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: One drone is flying between Ivano-Frankivsk and Kolomyia.
Ternopil Oblast: Two drones have moved from Khmelnytskyi Oblast to the south of Ternopil Oblast.
Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast.
Kirovohrad Oblast: Three drones are in Pervomaisk district. Another drone is in the eastern part of the region, moving west.
Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is circling east of Smila. Two drones are north of Uman, moving west. A drone is reported north of Kamyanske, moving north. Another drone is reported in the north of the region, moving west.
Chernihiv Oblast: Two drones are in the Nizhyn area. One drone is moving towards Chernihiv from the northeast. Other drones are reported in the west and east of the region, moving west.
Kyiv Oblast: Drones are reported on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts. Debris from a downed drone fell near a metro station in Kyiv, damaging a building.
Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are reported in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast.
Vinnytsia Oblast: Drones are reported in the northeast and northwest of Vinnytsia Oblast.
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Drones are reported in the west of Khmelnytskyi Oblast. One drone is moving north-west.
Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Drones are reported in the center of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the northwest of Mykolaiv Oblast. A drone was detected in the region, changing direction towards the region.
Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the west and southwest of Chernihiv Oblast. A drone is in the south of Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast.
Poltava Oblast: A drone is reported in the north, constantly changing course. The death toll in Poltava has risen to ten. The death toll in Poltava has risen to four, with seven injuries, including a child, following a Russian drone attack on a residential building. New photos show the aftermath of the attack on Poltava, with the updated casualty figures. The number of deaths in Poltava has increased to four. The death toll in Poltava has risen to eleven.
An Egyptian volunteer fighting for Russia was seriously wounded after saving a comrade.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on the presence of Russian warships and missile carriers in the Black Sea, Sea of Azov, and Mediterranean Sea.
Ukrainian forces report repelling a drone attack in the Rostov region.
Ukrainian forces report that Russia launched 100 drones overnight, with 65 shot down by Ukrainian air defenses.
Russian air defense reportedly continues to shoot down drones launched by Ukrainian forces in multiple regions. Five drones were destroyed over the Smolensk region, two over the Belgorod region, two over the Bryansk region, and one over Crimea.
Russian security forces detained a man in Bashkiria who was attempting to join the "Freedom of Russia Legion" (banned in Russia) and cross the border into Ukraine.
Russian forces report destroying a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone with a sniper rifle in the Kursk region. Another "Baba Yaga" drone was eliminated.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly transferred a sabotage and reconnaissance group to Belopolye (Sumy Oblast) on armored fighting vehicles, which was detected and destroyed by Russian drone operators.
"Birds of Magyar" unit reports destroying 4,387 enemy targets in one month, including 1,298 enemy soldiers, 66 tanks, 174 armored combat vehicles, 87 artillery systems, 17 MLRS, 9 EW systems, 506 vehicles, and 205 fortified positions. 100 new drone crews will be trained by the end of March.
Sumy Oblast: New groups of drones are entering the region. An explosion was heard near Sumy.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian "Kozak" armored vehicle with a "Lancet" loitering munition in the Kursk region. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that the enemy launched 739 kamikaze drone strikes during the day.
New Developments and Analysis
Confirmation of Russian Airstrike on Sudzha Boarding School: The Ukrainian General Staff and the Air Force have confirmed the Russian airstrike on the boarding school in Sudzha, Kursk region, stating that it was a deliberate attack with a guided aerial bomb (KAB). The Ukrainian General Staff published a video of the aftermath of the Russian attack on Sudzha. The Ukrainian Air Force published screenshots from the "Virage-Tablet" system, showing the trajectory of the Russian guided aerial bomb. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces committed a war crime by carrying out a targeted missile attack on a boarding school in Sudzha.
Ukrainian Military Command Spokesperson's Statement: The spokesperson for the Ukrainian military command in Sudzha, Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, confirmed the attack, stating that 95 people were trapped under the rubble, mostly elderly and bedridden.
Reports of Fires at Gas Facilities: Russian sources report fires at gas facilities in the Poltava region following a nighttime missile strike. Specifically, the Yablunivske gas processing plant and the Yarivka gas field near Sencha were reportedly hit.
ISW Assessment: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that the actions of the Russian command indicate that Putin does not intend to end the war in the near future. Russian military command is reportedly prepared for operations lasting 6-9 months, suggesting a belief that the war will continue until Russia achieves a military victory over Ukraine.
Drone Warfare Intensification:
Ukrainian air defenses shot down 37 drones overnight, with new groups reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region.
Numerous reports indicate a significant number of drones active across Ukraine, with specific movements noted towards Vylkove, Kiliia, Izmail, Khmelnytskyi, Shepetivka, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Hostomel, Vasylkiv, Chernihiv, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Poltava.
New alerts for multiple regions, including Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Boryspil, Vasylkiv, and Kyiv.
Confirmed drone movements across various regions.
Explosions reported in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast during an ongoing drone attack.
Ukrainian forces report destroying over 500 enemy aerial targets in the past week, with active engagement of enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast.
The "Birds of Magyar" unit reports destroying 4,387 enemy targets in one month, including 1,298 enemy soldiers, 66 tanks, 174 armored combat vehicles, 87 artillery systems, 17 MLRS, 9 EW systems, 506 vehicles, and 205 fortified positions. 100 new drone crews will be trained by the end of March.
A video from the "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel shows the "Predators of Heights" unit of the 59th Separate Mechanized Brigade targeting a Russian soldier with a drone.
Casualties: The death toll in Poltava has risen to eleven.
Explosions in Kharkiv and Sumy: Explosions were heard in Kharkiv and near Sumy. The enemy reportedly struck the Slobidskyi district of Kharkiv with a drone.
Updated Situation
The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining the initiative and making significant advances, particularly in the Donetsk region. The capture of Velyka Novosilka is a major setback for Ukraine, and the situation in Pokrovsk and Toretsk is increasingly critical. The confirmation of the Russian airstrike on the boarding school in Sudzha adds another layer of complexity to the conflict, with accusations of deliberate targeting of civilians. The ISW assessment suggests a protracted conflict, with Russia prepared for a long war of attrition. The intensification of drone warfare, with widespread attacks across multiple regions and confirmed strikes inside Russia, indicates a new phase in the conflict, characterized by increased use of unmanned aerial systems and potential expansion of the conflict zone. The Ukrainian forces continue to resist, with reported successes in repelling attacks and destroying enemy equipment, but the overall situation remains challenging. The international community's response, particularly regarding the provision of military aid and the enforcement of sanctions, will be crucial in determining the future course of the conflict. The new messages add further evidence to support this. The "Birds of Magyar" unit's report highlights the intensity of the drone warfare and the significant losses inflicted on Russian forces. The confirmation of the Russian airstrike on the boarding school in Sudzha and the Ukrainian military command spokesperson's statement underscore the targeting of civilians and the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the conflict zone. The reports of fires at gas facilities in the Poltava region suggest a Russian strategy to disrupt Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The ISW assessment reinforces the expectation of a prolonged conflict, with Russia preparing for a long-term engagement. The new information about the attack on Sudzha further complicates the situation, with conflicting reports and accusations from both sides. The use of HIMARS rockets, if confirmed, would indicate a significant escalation and could trigger further responses from Russia. The rising death toll in Poltava highlights the ongoing human cost of the conflict.
Recommendations
Urgent Reinforcement of Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Immediate deployment of additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk is critical to counter the Russian advance and prevent further territorial losses in the Donetsk region.
Strengthened Air Defense: Given the intensification of drone warfare, deploying advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities is crucial to neutralize Russian drones. Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and population centers, particularly in areas under threat like Chernihiv, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, Mykolaiv, Izmail, Bucha, and Vasylkiv Oblasts.
Secure Supply Lines: Focus on securing and establishing alternative supply routes to ensure the continued flow of troops, equipment, and supplies to the front lines, particularly in areas facing encirclement or intense fighting.
International Support: Intensify diplomatic efforts to secure additional military and financial aid from international partners, emphasizing the need for advanced weaponry, including long-range strike capabilities and air defense systems. Address the confirmed 90-day suspension of US aid and explore alternative funding sources.
Information Warfare: Counter Russian disinformation campaigns by providing accurate and timely information about the situation on the ground. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Given the ISW assessment, develop and implement a long-term strategy to sustain the war effort, focusing on training, recruitment, and resource management.
Address Internal Issues: Investigate and address reports of low morale, unauthorized absences, and refusals to fight within the Ukrainian military to ensure the effectiveness and cohesion of the armed forces.
Humanitarian Assistance: Prioritize the provision of humanitarian aid to civilians affected by the conflict, particularly in areas under attack or facing displacement.
Investigate and Document War Crimes: Thoroughly investigate and document all alleged war crimes, including the airstrike on the boarding school in Sudzha, to hold perpetrators accountable and maintain international support.
Strategic Communication: Maintain clear and consistent communication with the Ukrainian population and the international community regarding the military situation, strategic objectives, and the need for continued support.
Counter-Drone Measures: Given the massive number of drones used in recent attacks, invest heavily in counter-drone technologies and air defense systems. This includes deploying advanced electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize enemy drones and protect critical infrastructure.
Focus on Long-Term Strategy: Develop and implement a comprehensive long-term strategy that takes into account the protracted nature of the conflict. This should include plans for training, recruitment, resource management, and sustaining the war effort over an extended period.
