Strategic Military Situation in Ukraine: February 1, 2025, 15:38 UTC
Updated Situation
The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces making significant advances, particularly in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is under complete Russian control, and the situation in Pokrovsk and Toretsk is increasingly precarious, with Ukrainian defenses near collapse in Toretsk and Russian forces within 2 km of Myrnohrad.
In the Kramatorsk direction, Russian troops are pressing Ukrainian defenses south of Chasiv Yar. They have taken control of the "Kuznya" pond and advanced to the "Krinichki" tract, nearing the "Yugo-Vostochny" mine. Russian control over these mining territories will allow for visual observation of the southern part of Chasiv Yar and further advancement towards the "Yuzhny" microdistrict and the village of Stupochki.
Russian forces are improving their tactical position with an advance near Terniv in the Donetsk region.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with reports of significant North Korean casualties. There are reports of Russian forces taking Ukrainian forces into an "operational cauldron" in Nova Kruhliakivka. Drone warfare continues to intensify, with widespread attacks across multiple regions and reports of intense drone activity. Ukrainian air defenses have been active, shooting down numerous drones.
Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian military assets and infrastructure, including oil refineries. The Ukrainian military is adapting its force structure, creating new units focused on drone warfare.
Reports of internal conflict within both Russian and Ukrainian forces, as well as corruption and forced mobilization, highlight the complex internal situation.
The US has lifted the 90-day freeze on most foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine, but the White House press secretary has denied this, creating confusion. Finland and Great Britain are providing substantial military aid packages to Ukraine.
Geopolitical tensions remain high, with Russia accusing the US of discussing an assassination attempt on Putin and a Russian politician claiming Ukraine is a fictional state. The release of hostages in Gaza adds another layer to the complex international situation.
Ukrainian intelligence is actively seeking samples of Russian technology to develop countermeasures and new weapons. The SBU has neutralized a pro-Kremlin organization attempting to destabilize Ukraine from within.
Key Updates from the New Messages
Military Operations and Technology
Geopolitical and Economic Developments
- US Aid: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly assured the Italian Foreign Minister that the US will not abandon Ukraine, despite the confirmed 90-day freeze.
- Ammunition Supplies: The Czech Republic has reportedly supplied Ukraine with 1.5 million ammunition rounds, including a third being 155mm artillery shells.
- Netherlands Military Aid: The Netherlands announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, including additional F-16 fighter jets, 400 million euros for drones, and cooperation on long-range weapons projects.
- Moldova: TASS reported on Moldova's approval of gas supplies to Transnistria, purchased with an EU grant. Moldova is also reportedly resuming gas supplies to Transnistria, with costs covered by the EU.
- US-EU Relations: Reports of Trump's intention to impose new tariffs on the EU, potentially escalating trade tensions.
- US Media: Reports of the Pentagon "evicting" several media outlets and replacing them with others perceived as more favorable to Trump.
- EU Defense Financing: Germany and 18 other EU countries have called for the European Investment Bank to expand its financing of the defense industry, signaling a potential significant shift in EU policy and a commitment to bolstering defense capabilities.
- Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus. New authorities in Syria have declared the termination of the previous constitution and the dissolution of all security services and armed formations, as well as the parliament. Ahmed al-Sharaa will serve as interim president.
- Europe's Fear of Exclusion from Peace Talks: Concerns that the EU and Ukraine might be excluded from peace negotiations.
- EU Sanctions on Russian Citizens: Sanctions on three Russian citizens allegedly responsible for cyberattacks.
- Poland to Invite Trump to Three Seas Summit: A move that could have significant implications for US-European relations.
- Ukraine's Defense Industry Funding: Secured over $1.5 billion in foreign partner funding in 2024.
- Rising Inflation and Economic Difficulties in Russia: Despite reported economic growth, Russia is facing increasing inflation, rising prices, and labor shortages.
- US President: Donald Trump confirmed that he is engaged in serious discussions with Russia regarding the conclusion of the conflict in Ukraine. He announced his intention to hold a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressing hope for a significant outcome. Trump also announced his intention to impose substantial tariffs on goods from the EU, Mexico, and Canada.
- US Aid Uncertainty: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly assured the Italian Foreign Minister that the US will not abandon Ukraine, despite the confirmed 90-day freeze on most foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine.
- The Trump administration is reportedly considering placing USAID under the control of the State Department, potentially impacting global aid efforts.
- The new report of the potential resumption of Russian gas supplies to the EU as part of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine, as discussed by EU officials, is a significant development that could have major geopolitical implications.
- The new report from the "NgP raZVедка" Telegram channel about EU officials discussing the possibility of resuming Russian gas supplies as part of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine suggests a potential shift in the European approach to the conflict.
- The new report from the Ukrainian Air Force about the launch of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in the Sumy region indicates a continued threat to this area.
- The new information from the "Operational ZSU" Telegram channel about Ukrainian deputies being unable to register a draft resolution in the PACE to declare Putin a terrorist suggests ongoing diplomatic efforts to condemn Russian actions.
- The new report from TASS about the new Syrian authorities' actions underscores the volatile situation in the region.
- The new report from TASS about the State Duma planning to adopt a law on the protection of the Russian language by the end of the spring session indicates the ongoing cultural and linguistic dimensions of the conflict.
- The State Duma of the Russian Federation directed an appeal to the US Congress in connection with information about Biden and Blinken discussing the organization of an assassination attempt on Putin.
- The State Duma regards the lack of reaction from Biden and Blinken to Carlson's statement about attempts to "kill" Putin as proof of their guilt.
- Discussion of the issue of the physical elimination of the President of the Russian Federation can be qualified as an act of international state terrorism, the State Duma said in a statement.
Internal Issues: Corruption, Mobilization, and Morale
- Corruption and Internal Issues:
- Arrest of the former deputy head of Rosnano's management board on charges of abuse of power.
- Arrest of two former top managers of "Rosnano," Boris Podolsky and Artur Galstyan, on charges of abuse of power and falsifying financial reports.
- Exposure of a Zhytomyr company supplying gas boilers to Russian military sanatoriums through intermediaries in the EU, Central Asia, and Belarus.
- Arrest of a top manager of "Rosnano," Artur Galstyan, by the Meshchansky Court of Moscow on charges of abuse of power.
- Propaganda and Information Warfare:
- Maria Zakharova criticized the UN Secretary-General for not mentioning the USSR's losses in WWII in his list of victims of Nazi crimes.
- Satirical post about DeepSeek allegedly using Soviet-era programming code.
- Video showing the aftermath of the attack on the "Bristol" hotel in Odesa, with claims of NATO instructors being present.
- Comment about the need for a simple, modular, and easily repairable armored personnel carrier for the Russian army, similar to the American M113.
- Ukrainian MP Bezuhla states that the war will end either with the collapse of the state or victory, rejecting the possibility of peace.
- Reports from both Ukrainian and Russian media outlets highlight discrepancies between official statements and the actual situation on the ground.
- Videos showing the raising of the Russian flag in Velyka Novosilka and interviews with captured Ukrainian soldiers are being used for propaganda purposes by Russian sources.
- Misleading images are being used to spread disinformation and manipulate public perception.
- Evidence suggests the use of automated bots on Telegram channels to post contextually relevant but inappropriate comments.
- Reports that contractors allegedly embezzled over 3 billion rubles allocated for fortifications construction.
- Video from "Alex Parker Returns" featuring an elderly Ukrainian Jewish man drawing parallels between Putin and Hitler can be used to counter Russian narratives and bolster Ukrainian morale.
- Video from "Colonelcassad" accusing Zelensky of wanting to send teachers and students to the front lines is an example of Russian propaganda.
- Video from "Butusov Plus" Telegram channel showing looters from the Russian army stealing honey from a Ukrainian home underscores the brutality and lawlessness of the conflict.
- The new information about an activist from St. Petersburg, Lena Patyaeva, disappearing after protesting in support of Chechen woman Seda Suleymanova, highlights the ongoing human rights concerns in Russia.
- The new information from the "Police of the Khabarovsk Territory" Telegram channel about the requirement for foreign citizens to be free of dangerous infectious diseases and HIV to enter Russia for an extended period does not have direct military implications but reflects the ongoing administrative and legal measures being implemented in Russia.
- The new message from the "Shef Hayabusa" Telegram channel, indicating zero donations after three hundred views ("Нуль грн після трьохсот переглядів..."), suggests potential challenges in fundraising or public engagement for certain Ukrainian military-affiliated groups.
- The new report of a court in St. Petersburg sentencing a Ukrainian citizen to 11 years in a strict regime colony on charges of espionage underscores the ongoing legal and political dimensions of the conflict.
- The new report of a lawyer from the "Perviy Otdel" project transferring money to the Russian army highlights the complex and multifaceted nature of the conflict, with individuals and organizations supporting both sides through various means.
- The new information about the "Kotsnews" Telegram channel reporting 100,000 deserters in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Ministry of Defense's statements on mobilization and losses provides a glimpse into the challenges facing the Ukrainian military.
- The new analysis of the video of a civilian argument at a ski resort in Ukraine highlights the lack of direct military significance and the potential for misinformation if the situation were misrepresented.
- The new analysis of the video