Strategic Military Situation in Ukraine: February 1, 2025, 13:38 UTC

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces making significant advances, particularly in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is under complete Russian control, and the situation in Pokrovsk and Toretsk is increasingly precarious, with Ukrainian defenses near collapse in Toretsk and Russian forces within 2 km of Myrnohrad. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with reports of significant North Korean casualties. Drone warfare continues to intensify, with widespread attacks across multiple regions and reports of intense drone activity. Ukrainian air defenses have been active, shooting down numerous drones. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian military assets and infrastructure, including oil refineries. The Ukrainian military is adapting its force structure, creating new units focused on drone warfare. Reports of internal conflict within both Russian and Ukrainian forces, as well as corruption and forced mobilization, highlight the complex internal situation. The US has lifted the 90-day freeze on most foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine, but the White House press secretary has denied this, creating confusion. Finland and Great Britain are providing substantial military aid packages to Ukraine. Geopolitical tensions remain high, with Russia accusing the US of discussing an assassination attempt on Putin and a Russian politician claiming Ukraine is a fictional state. The release of hostages in Gaza adds another layer to the complex international situation. Ukrainian intelligence is actively seeking samples of Russian technology to develop countermeasures and new weapons. The SBU has neutralized a pro-Kremlin organization attempting to destabilize Ukraine from within.

Key Updates from the New Messages

Military Operations and Technology

• Drone Warfare:

  • Ukraine confirms the use of a long-range drone capable of carrying a 250-kilogram bomb and traveling up to 2000 km with the possibility of return. This represents a significant escalation in Ukraine's ability to strike deep into Russian territory.
  • Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian "Orlan" UAV ground control stations.
  • Ukrainian drone operators from the 32nd Brigade destroyed a Russian "bukhanka" carrying ammunition.
  • A Ukrainian USV was reportedly detected and destroyed by a Russian "Orion" drone.
  • A Ukrainian drone attacked a Russian Tor SAM system.
  • Drone operators detected and destroyed an enemy "Baba Yaga" drone carrying a mine.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reported 165 air attack weapons used by Russia on the night of February 1, including missiles and drones, with 56 drones shot down and many missiles intercepted.

• Russian Advances:

  • Russian forces report further advances near Dachne, Andriivka, Slov'yanka, and Novoandriivka, improving their tactical position near Terniv.
  • Russian troops are attempting to encircle Dachne west of Kurakhove.
  • Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
  • An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
  • In the direction of Hrekivka, Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.
  • Russian forces are advancing in the Kursk region, with ongoing battles near Sverdlykove and nearby forested areas.

• Casualties and Losses:

  • The 501st Separate Marine Infantry Battalion reportedly withdrawn to the Mykolaiv region for replenishment after suffering over 50% casualties.
  • Three police officers killed in a Russian airstrike in the Sumy region.
  • Death toll in Poltava increased to 7, with 14 injured, including 3 children, due to a Russian missile strike on a residential building.

• Targeting of Infrastructure:

  • Ukrainian drone strike on the "ShU Pokrovskaya" mine, targeting Ukrainian forces allegedly located on the territory of the mine.
  • A lyceum was destroyed in the Synelnykivskyi district of the Dnipropetrovsk region due to a Russian attack.
  • Damage to buildings and a fire at an enterprise reported in the Kyiv region following a Ukrainian drone attack.

Geopolitical and Economic Developments

• US Aid: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly assured the Italian Foreign Minister that the US will not abandon Ukraine, despite the confirmed 90-day freeze.
• Ammunition Supplies: The Czech Republic has reportedly supplied Ukraine with 1.5 million ammunition rounds, including a third being 155mm artillery shells.
• Netherlands Military Aid: The Netherlands announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, including additional F-16 fighter jets, 400 million euros for drones, and cooperation on long-range weapons projects.
• Corruption and Internal Issues:
  • Arrest of the former deputy head of Rosnano's management board on charges of abuse of power.
  • Arrest of two former top managers of "Rosnano," Boris Podolsky and Artur Galstyan, on charges of abuse of power and falsifying financial reports.
  • Exposure of a Zhytomyr company supplying gas boilers to Russian military sanatoriums through intermediaries in the EU, Central Asia, and Belarus.
  • Arrest of a top manager of "Rosnano," Artur Galstyan, by the Meshchansky Court of Moscow on charges of abuse of power.
• Propaganda and Information Warfare:
  • Maria Zakharova criticized the UN Secretary-General for not mentioning the USSR's losses in WWII in his list of victims of Nazi crimes.
  • Satirical post about DeepSeek allegedly using Soviet-era programming code.
  • Video showing the aftermath of the attack on the "Bristol" hotel in Odesa, with claims of NATO instructors being present.
  • Comment about the need for a simple, modular, and easily repairable armored personnel carrier for the Russian army, similar to the American M113.
• Technological Intelligence: The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (GUR) requested samples of Russian technology, including electronic warfare elements, drones, modern Russian radio stations, and missile components.

Other Key Developments

• Deserters: Eight armed deserters from among the "zeks" (prisoners) reported near Pokrovsk.
• Alleged Atrocities: A captured Ukrainian soldier gave a graphic account of atrocities committed by the 92nd Assault Brigade in the village of Russkoye Porechnoye, Kursk region.
• Moldova: TASS reported on Moldova's approval of gas supplies to Transnistria, purchased with an EU grant.

Strategic Implications

• Escalation of Drone Warfare: The confirmed use of long-range drones by Ukraine and the continued development of counter-drone measures by both sides point to a significant escalation in the role of drone warfare in the conflict.
• Continued Russian Advances: Despite Ukrainian counter-efforts, Russian forces continue to make gains, particularly in the Donetsk region. The situation around Toretsk remains critical, and the advances near Kurakhove and in the Luhansk region highlight the ongoing pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
• Importance of International Support: The continued provision of military and financial aid from Western allies, particularly the US, the Netherlands, and the Czech Republic, remains crucial for Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense efforts.
• Internal Challenges: Reports of corruption, internal conflict, and forced mobilization within both Russia and Ukraine underscore the internal challenges faced by both sides, which could impact morale and operational effectiveness.
• Technological Arms Race: The GUR's request for samples of Russian technology highlights the ongoing technological arms race and the importance of intelligence gathering in gaining a strategic advantage.
• Geopolitical Tensions: The continued war of words between Russia and the West, as well as the involvement of countries like Moldova and North Korea, adds further complexity to the geopolitical landscape.

Recommendations

• Prioritize Air Defense and Counter-Drone Measures: Given the increasing use of drones by both sides, Ukraine must continue to strengthen its air defense capabilities and invest in counter-drone technologies, including electronic warfare systems.
• Reinforce Positions in Donetsk: Urgent measures are needed to reinforce Ukrainian positions in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk and Kurakhove, to prevent further Russian advances.
• Secure and Expand International Support: Ukraine must continue to engage with its international partners to secure a steady supply of military and financial aid, with a focus on air defense systems, long-range weapons, and ammunition.
• Address Internal Challenges: Ukraine needs to address issues of corruption, internal conflict, and forced mobilization to maintain morale and ensure the effectiveness of its military forces.
• Exploit Russian Vulnerabilities: Ukraine should focus on exploiting Russian vulnerabilities, such as the reported issues with discipline among troops recruited from prisons and the potential for internal dissent within Russia.
• Continue Intelligence Efforts: Gathering intelligence on Russian military capabilities, particularly in the areas of drone technology and electronic warfare, will be crucial for developing effective countermeasures.
• Prepare for Prolonged Conflict: Given the continued intensity of the fighting and the stated objectives of both sides, Ukraine must prepare for a prolonged conflict and develop strategies for sustaining its defense efforts over the long term.

Conclusion

The situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces continuing to press their offensive in the Donetsk region and drone warfare playing an increasingly significant role. Ukraine's ability to withstand these pressures will depend on its ability to strengthen its defenses, secure international support, address internal challenges, and exploit Russian vulnerabilities. The coming weeks and months will be critical in determining the future course of the conflict. The confirmation of a long-range drone capability for Ukraine could be a game-changer, but its effectiveness will depend on how it is deployed and integrated into the overall military strategy.