Major Updates on the Military Situation in Ukraine (February 1, 2025)

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure and achieving significant advances, particularly in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is under complete Russian control, and the situation in Pokrovsk and Toretsk is increasingly precarious. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are nearing collapse, with less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control. Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border and have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro. In the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces have advanced south of Rozlyv and expanded their control in the Dachne area.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed the liberation of Krymske in the Donetsk People's Republic. This further solidifies Russian control in the Toretsk area and adds to the pressure on Ukrainian defenses.

Drone warfare continues to intensify, with widespread drone attacks reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian military assets and infrastructure, including a significant drone attack on the Nizhny Novgorod oil refinery, causing a massive fire.

The Ukrainian Air Force reports drones in Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts moving west, and drones in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast moving north towards Kharkiv Oblast. New reports also show drones in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts moving southwest, drones in Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts moving west, and drones in Zhytomyr Oblast moving southwest.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and reporting the capture of several settlements.

A nationwide air raid alert is in effect across Ukraine, signaling a significant escalation in aerial threats.

Germany and 18 other EU countries have called for expanded defense financing through the European Investment Bank.

Key Developments in the Last 6 Hours

• EU Defense Financing: Germany and 18 other EU countries have called for the European Investment Bank to expand its financing of the defense industry, signaling a potential significant shift in EU policy and a commitment to bolstering defense capabilities.
• Casualty in Kharkiv: A woman was killed in the Russian attack on Kharkiv, bringing the death toll to one, with five others injured.
• Casualty in Zaporizhzhia: One person was injured in the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia.
• Drone Attack on Poltava: A Russian drone attack targeted a residential building in Poltava, causing a fire and resulting in two deaths and seven injuries, including a child. Rescuers saved 21 people. A whole section of the building from the 1st to the 5th floor was destroyed.
• Updated Casualty Figures in Poltava: The death toll from the attack on Poltava has risen to three, with seven injuries, including a child.
• Air Defenses in Poltava: The first minutes after a Russian drone hit a residential building in Poltava were captured on video, showing the immediate aftermath and the devastation caused by the attack.
• Drone Attack on Zaporizhzhia: Rescue workers showed footage of the aftermath of a massive shelling of Zaporizhzhia. The Russian army launched 16 drone strikes on the city. A 57-year-old man was injured as a result of falling debris. Buildings of an educational institution, cars, and garages were burned, and neighboring houses were damaged by the blast wave and debris.
• Russian Drone Attack on Residential Building in Poltava: A video shows the moment of a Russian "Shahed" drone attack on a residential building in Sumy and its aftermath, highlighting the devastating impact of the conflict on civilian populations.
• Explosions in Poltava: Video footage shows the aftermath of an attack on Poltava, with reports of a whole section of a multi-story building being destroyed and casualties.
• Air Defenses in Poltava: Video footage shows Ukrainian air defense operations against drones.
• Drone Attack on Toretsk: Video footage shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian positions in Toretsk.
• Drone Attack on Residential Building in Poltava: Video footage shows the aftermath of a Russian drone attack on a residential building in Poltava, with reports of casualties.
• Aftermath of Attack on Odesa: Photos show the aftermath of an attack on the "Bristol" district in Odesa.
• Plane Crash in Philadelphia: A Learjet 55 crashed near the Rosevelt Mall in northeastern Philadelphia, resulting in the deaths of two pilots, two doctors, and a patient with a companion. The cause of the crash is unknown, but oxygen tanks on board may have caused an explosion.
• Explosion in Poltava: Video footage shows an explosion in Poltava, with reports of damage to a residential building and casualties. Ukrainian air defenses are criticized for their "effectiveness."
• Aftermath of Attack on Zaporizhzhia: Photos show the aftermath of an attack on Zaporizhzhia, with damage to a residential building and a car.
• Drone Attack on Poltava: Video footage shows the aftermath of a drone attack on Poltava, with reports of casualties and damage to a residential building.
• Fundraising for Ukrainian Military: A video appeal is made for donations to support the Ukrainian military, specifically for the purchase of a UAZ vehicle for a unit of the Airborne Assault Forces.
• Drone Operations in Kursk Region: A video shows the work of drone operators from the 69th Separate Covering Brigade of the 35th Army of the "Vostok" group in the Kursk region.
• Fundraising for Ukrainian Military: A video shows a fundraising campaign for operators of UAVs of the 3rd MSD, with a list of needed equipment and donation details.
• Drone Strike by Ukrainian Forces: A video shows the 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Anna Kyivska" repelling a Russian attack on the Pokrovsk direction, with one Russian soldier killed by small arms fire and another reportedly taking his own life after hearing an approaching FPV drone.
• Russian Tank Commander Interview: A video shows an interview with a Russian tank commander with the call sign "Dan," who discusses the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV control point and personnel on the right bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region.
• Ukrainian Military Casualties: The Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly lost up to 170 soldiers in the area of responsibility of the "South" grouping, according to the head of the group's press center, Vadim Astafyev.
• Russian Air Force Strikes: The Russian Air Force and missile troops carried out a combined missile strike with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as Kh-31P missiles, targeting airfields and air defense areas.
• Drone Attack on Zaporizhzhia: A video shows the aftermath of a massive drone attack on Zaporizhzhia, with reports of 18 drones targeting the city and damage to residential buildings.
• Call for Assistance to Ukrainian Military: A video shows a call for assistance to Ukrainian military units on the front lines, with a focus on providing field cots for soldiers.
• Air Defense Operations: The Ukrainian Air Force reports repelling another drone attack on the Kyiv region, with no hits on critical infrastructure and no casualties. Damage to private houses, commercial buildings, and a car was reported in the Boryspil and Fastiv districts.
• Air Raid Alerts Lifted: Air raid alerts have been lifted for the eastern regions, Kyiv, and the Zaporizhzhia region.
• Casualty Update in Poltava: The death toll in Poltava has risen to two, with seven injuries, including a child.
• Aftermath of Attack on Poltava: Photos show the aftermath of an attack on Poltava, with damage to a residential building and reports of casualties.
• Russian Military Recruitment: An advertisement for contract military service in the Russian Federation security agencies is shown, highlighting the benefits and requirements for candidates.
• Analysis of Military Situation: A hand-drawn map shows the possible directions of Russian advances, with a focus on transport hubs and remaining Ukrainian fortifications. The author suggests that the pace of the Russian offensive will increase significantly in the near future.
• Drone Operations in Kursk Region: Video footage shows the work of drone operators from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade in the Kursk region, with reports of the capture and clearing of two strongholds south of Nikolaevo-Daryino.
• Drone Strike on Turkish Equipment: Video footage shows the work of Kurdish SDF FPV drone operators targeting Turkish equipment and pro-Turkish militants.
• Aftermath of Attack on Poltava: A video shows the aftermath of an attack on Poltava, with a completely destroyed entrance to a building and reports of casualties.
• Air Defense Operations: The Ukrainian Air Force reports shooting down two X-59/69 guided missiles, 46 Shahed drones, and other types of drones in various regions overnight. 15 enemy drones were lost without negative consequences.
• Drone Attack on Oil Refinery: The Ryazan oil refinery has suspended operations following a Ukrainian drone attack. The refinery processes nearly 5% of Russia's oil. The attack caused fires and damaged equipment.
• Drone Attack on Oil Refinery: Ukrainian forces are reportedly using drones to target and destroy a Russian oil refinery in Kstovo. Video evidence shows a fire at the "Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez" oil refinery, reportedly caused by a drone attack.
• Drone Attack on Oil Refinery: The Ryazan oil refinery, which processes 5% of Russia's oil, has reportedly been attacked by Ukrainian drones for the second time.
• Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Explosions were reported in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast during an ongoing drone attack.
• Drone Attack on Oil Refineries: Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov.
• Drone Attack Aftermath in Kyiv Region: Video evidence shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone attack in the Kyiv region, with two multi-story buildings and six cars damaged. A fire also broke out at an enterprise, covering an area of 600 square meters.
• Drone Shot Down in Energodar: In the center of Energodar, a Ukrainian drone was shot down.
• Updated Casualty Figures in Poltava: The death toll in Poltava has risen to three.
• Drone Attack Aftermath in Poltava: New photos show the aftermath of the attack on Poltava, with the updated casualty figures.
• Negotiations between Trump and Putin: There are unconfirmed reports that Donald Trump is already negotiating with Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. Details are currently unknown.
• Donetsk Lyceum Destroyed: Russian forces destroyed a lyceum in the Synelnykivskyi district of the Dnipropetrovsk region, also damaging a cultural center, religious institution, administrative building, post office, store, business, and 22 private homes. Electrical lines were also affected.
• Toretsk Renamed: WarGonzo claims that Toretsk will soon be renamed Dzerzhinsk again, posting a video of their work in the area.
• Russian Tank Withstands Ukrainian ATGM Attack: TASS reports that a Russian tank withstood a Ukrainian ATGM attack during the liberation of Novoelizavetovka in the DNR, citing a tank gunner-operator named Valeriy Grigoryev.
• Website for Forced Mobilization Data: Rybar reports on a new website that collects data on forced mobilization and abductions by Ukrainian TCCs, mentioning the cases of Gonzalo Lira and an Odesa blogger.
• Death of Inna Volyanskaya: Alex Parker Returns comments on the death of Inna Volyanskaya, a bronze medalist in the USSR figure skating championship, in the Washington plane crash.
• Annabelle Morozova Not on Crashed Plane: TASS reports that figure skater Annabelle Morozova was not on board the plane that crashed in Washington.
• Combat Operations near Kupyansk and Orlyanskoye: Slivochny Kapriz reports on active combat operations near Kupyansk and Orlyanskoye, claiming a successful hit on a Ukrainian BMP by Russian FPV drones. Provides coordinates and a source.
• Drone Attack on Kharkiv: RBC-Ukraine reports a drone attack on Kharkiv, with preliminary information about a "Molniya" type UAV hitting a private sector in the Kholodnohirskyi district, damaging the glazing of a private house.
• Aftermath of Attack on Sumy: Shef Hayabusa shares images and a video of the aftermath of the attack on Sumy.
• Former Ukrainian Military Serviceman Captured: Operativny ZSU reports on a former Ukrainian military serviceman who betrayed his oath and is now fighting against Ukraine, captured
• Russian forces liberated Krymske in the Donetsk People's Republic. This is a significant development as it further solidifies Russian control in the Toretsk area and adds to the pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
• Russian forces carried out a group strike on the gas and energy infrastructure facilities that support the operation of Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises. This indicates a continued effort by Russian forces to target Ukraine's ability to produce and maintain military equipment.
• Ukrainian losses are reported as up to 320 soldiers in the "West" group's area of responsibility, up to 220 soldiers in the "South" group's area of responsibility, and over 130 soldiers and a Leopard tank in the "East" group's area of responsibility. These figures, if accurate, demonstrate the high intensity of the fighting and the significant losses being suffered by Ukrainian forces.
• Russian air defense forces shot down 10 HIMARS rockets and 108 Ukrainian drones in the past 24 hours. This highlights the continued importance of air defense in the conflict and the ongoing struggle for air superiority.
• **Since the start of the special military operation, a total of 652 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 42,095 drones, 590 anti-aircraft missile systems

Military Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are achieving significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk. The capture of Velyka Novosilka is a major strategic and symbolic victory for Russian forces. Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk and Toretsk are under immense pressure, with reports indicating a potential collapse of defenses in Toretsk. The new reports of significant Russian advances in Chasiv Yar, including the beginning of cleanup operations in the railway station area, indicate a further deterioration of the situation for Ukrainian forces in this area.

Drone warfare continues to be a defining feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing UAVs extensively. The Ukrainian military confirmed the use of a long-range drone capable of carrying a 250-kilogram bomb and traveling up to 2000 km with the possibility of return. This new capability potentially allows Ukraine to strike targets deep within Russian territory and could significantly impact the course of the conflict. The increased drone activity, with 5 drones reported to be targeting Zaporizhzhia, suggests a potential escalation in aerial warfare. The new reports of at least five groups of "Shahed" drones being launched from Olenya indicate a potential intensification of Russian drone attacks. The new reports of drone movements from the Ukrainian Air Force indicate continued drone activity in Chernihiv, Kyiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. The threat of ballistic weapons from the northeast adds another layer of complexity to the situation. The new updates regarding drone movements towards Starokostiantyniv and other areas further emphasize the widespread and evolving nature of the drone threat. The reported enemy attack on Zaporizhzhia with 18 UAVs, resulting in damage to civilian infrastructure and fires, underscores the continued targeting of civilian areas and the humanitarian consequences of the conflict.

The situation in the Kursk region indicates a shift in momentum, with Russian forces regaining territory and repelling Ukrainian counterattacks. The reported involvement of North Korean soldiers adds another layer of complexity to the conflict.

The increased drone activity across multiple regions suggests a potential escalation in aerial warfare, with both sides attempting to gain an advantage through the use of UAVs. The attacks on civilian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, indicate a deliberate strategy to disrupt Ukrainian services and impact civilian morale.

The Ukrainian military is facing significant challenges in maintaining defensive positions and countering Russian advances. The reported losses in personnel and equipment, coupled with the ongoing pressure on multiple fronts, are likely straining Ukrainian capabilities.

The new reports of attacks on educational institutions, residential buildings, and a car wash in Zaporizhzhia indicate a continued pattern of Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure. The restoration of power in Zaporizhzhia is a positive development, but the ongoing threat of attacks remains.

The new reports of the destruction of a Ukrainian unmanned boat in the Black Sea and the downing of nine Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions overnight indicate continued efforts by Russian forces to counter Ukrainian aerial and naval threats. The presence of one Russian Kalibr missile carrier in the Black Sea, with a capacity of up to four missiles, poses a continued threat to Ukrainian territory. The absence of Russian ships in the Azov Sea suggests a possible shift in naval strategy or a temporary lull in activity in that area. The presence of six Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea, including two Kalibr missile carriers with a total capacity of up to 22 missiles, indicates a significant Russian naval presence in the region, potentially posing a threat to NATO interests and maritime traffic. The continued movement of ships through the Kerch Strait highlights the strategic importance of this waterway for Russia's logistical and operational activities.

The new reports of six Ukrainian soldiers surrendering under Kurakhovo and their claims of being abandoned by their command, if true, could indicate morale problems within Ukrainian units in this area. This could be exploited by Russian forces for propaganda purposes and could potentially lead to further surrenders. The soldiers' statements about receiving medical treatment and good treatment from Russian forces could also be used in information operations.