Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 1, 2025, 06:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure and achieving significant advances, particularly in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is under complete Russian control, and the situation in Pokrovsk and Toretsk is increasingly precarious. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are nearing collapse, with less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control. Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border and have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro. In the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces have advanced south of Rozlyv and expanded their control in the Dachne area. Russian forces have made significant advances in Chasiv Yar in recent hours, with reports indicating they have begun cleaning up the railway station area.

Drone warfare continues to intensify, with widespread drone attacks reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian military assets and infrastructure, including a significant drone attack on the Nizhny Novgorod oil refinery, causing a massive fire. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that 59 out of 102 enemy drones were shot down during the night of January 31, with another 37 "locationally lost" without negative consequences. There are new reports of drone activity, including drones near Cherkasy, Kropyvnytskyi, Kremenchuk, and Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian air defenses are active, engaging drones in various locations, including near Kyiv. New reports indicate that at least five groups of "Shahed" drones have been launched from Olenya. The Ukrainian Air Force reports drones in Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts moving west, and drones in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast moving north towards Kharkiv Oblast. New reports also show drones in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts moving southwest, drones in Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts moving west, and drones in Zhytomyr Oblast moving southwest.

The Ukrainian Air Force has announced a threat of ballistic weaponry from the northeast in regions where an air alert has been declared. There are reports of potential Kh-22 missile launches. Four TU-22M3 bombers are confirmed in the air, with maneuvers by six TU-95MS aircraft near the Caspian Sea. The Ukrainian Air Force is reporting on the movement of drones, with groups observed in Zhytomyr Oblast heading towards Starokostiantyniv, drones in the south of Chernihiv Oblast and the north of Poltava Oblast moving west, drones in the southwest of Sumy Oblast moving west, and drones in Kharkiv Oblast heading west and south.

Enemy attacks have been reported in Kharkiv and Berestyn districts, with damage and casualty information being verified. Explosions have been reported in Kharkiv and Poltava, with damage to residential areas.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and reporting the capture of several settlements.

US President Donald Trump confirmed that he is engaged in serious discussions with Russia regarding the conclusion of the conflict in Ukraine.

A nationwide air raid alert is in effect across Ukraine, signaling a significant escalation in aerial threats. Reports indicate the potential launch of Kh-101/555 missiles from Russian strategic aviation, with an estimated arrival near Ukrainian borders around 07:00 - 07:50 UTC.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed under complete Russian control.
• Pokrovsk: The situation is highly precarious. Russian forces are within 2 kilometers of Myrnohrad and within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. One of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro has been cut off. Russian forces are advancing on five axes near Pokrovsk, according to the ISW.
• Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses are under immense strain, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Russian forces are advancing on five axes near Toretsk, according to the ISW.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district. Russian forces have reportedly cleared the Novosjeverny district and the summit of the "Block-9" spoil tip at the refractory plant. Russian troops are completing the cleanup of the Severnyi microdistrict and are destroying Ukrainian forces in the Shevchenko microdistrict. Russian units also took positions in the buildings south of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant and advanced in the area of the Dolgoe-II tract south of the Novyi microdistrict. In the northern part of Chasiv Yar, fighting is ongoing for the remaining part of the Novosjeverny microdistrict. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are concentrating forces in the area of Dniprovska Street in the Shevchenko microdistrict, trying to hold the south of the city. Russian FPV drones are attacking Ukrainian infantry and burning equipment on the road. There are reports of battles on the southwestern outskirts of the city.
• Kurakhove: Active combat is taking place in the Kurakhove-Sukhi Yaly area. To the west of Kurakhove, Russian troops are attempting to advance in the Dachne and Andriivka areas. On the Kurakhove direction near Dachne, Russian assault troops from the 102nd regiment continue to advance in small groups and consolidate their positions. Russian troops are trying to encircle Dachne. Russian forces are advancing on five axes near Kurakhove, according to the ISW. Six Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendered near Kurakhove, claiming abandonment by their command.
• Kramatorsk Direction: Russian forces have advanced south of Rozlyv and expanded their control in the Dachne area. Increased Russian assault activities reported. Russian forces are advancing on five axes near Lyman, according to the ISW.
• Siversk - Verkhnokamyanske: Active combat operations are taking place.
• Stupochki: Positional fighting is reported near Artemivsk.
• Other Locations: Fighting continues in Zverevo. Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces. Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka. Russian forces report further advances near Dachne, Andriivka, Slov'yanka, and Novoandriivka. Russian forces are making advances near Zverevo, Solone, Uspenivka, Dachne, Kotlyne, and Andriivka. Bogatyrskoe: Russian assault groups have advanced to the area of Alekseevka. Zelenovka: Fierce fighting is reported.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces report advances near Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, Zakhidne, and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka. An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka. In the direction of Hrekivka, Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.
• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River.

Kursk Region

• Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the region for 100 days. Heavy fighting continues near Nikolsky. Russian forces report the capture of Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya. North Korean forces have reportedly withdrawn from some areas, possibly due to heavy losses. Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults in the Kursk region. Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south. Russian forces are advancing in the Kursk region, with ongoing battles near Sverdlykove and in nearby forested areas.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian forces have taken control of Novomlynsk. Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack near Vovchansk. Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk.
• Three guided aerial missiles are reported to be targeting Chuhuiv/Balakliia. Four missiles were launched, with two targeting Chuhuiv and two targeting Balakliia. These missiles have reportedly moved on towards Zlatopil in Kharkiv Oblast. Another winged missile was reported to be traveling through Okhtyrka towards Poltava Oblast. A high-speed target was reported to be moving through Kharkiv Oblast in a southerly direction. Another high-speed target was reported to be moving through Kharkiv Oblast in a westerly direction. A missile was reported to be traveling towards Poltava from the north. Another high-speed target was reported to be traveling through Sumy Oblast in the direction of Poltava Oblast. Another high-speed target was reported to be traveling through Kharkiv Oblast in a southwesterly direction. Two missiles are currently in the western part of Kharkiv Oblast, heading towards or through Krasnohrad. Another missile has changed course towards Poltava. Another missile was reported to be traveling from the Kupiansk district towards or through Zlatopil in Kharkiv Oblast. Two drones are reported to be traveling towards or through Kharkiv. Two missiles are currently in the western part of Kharkiv Oblast, heading towards or through Krasnohrad. Explosions were reported in Balakliia.

Zaporizhzhia Region

• Russian forces report destroying a group of foreign mercenaries, including an Austrian special forces veteran, near Orikhiv. At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region. Russia attacked the Zaporizhzhia region 401 times overnight. In Zaporizhzhia, the situation regarding Russian drone attacks has been clarified. Power has been restored in Zaporizhzhia following the Russian attack. Air raid alerts have been announced in Kyiv and across the Zaporizhzhia region.
• Russian forces have reportedly carried out the most massive strike on Zaporizhzhia in recent times, with over 10 attacks reported.
• The aftermath of the attacks on Zaporizhzhia includes damage to private homes, with windows blown out and roofs damaged.
• New video evidence shows the aftermath of a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia.
• New videos show the aftermath of the attack on Zaporizhzhia, with damage to an educational institution and several residential buildings.
• There are reports of damage to a car wash and private garages during the attack on Zaporizhzhia.
• Russian forces destroyed dugouts and Ukrainian infantry in Zaporizhzhia.

Other Regions

• Drone Warfare: Intensified drone warfare continues, with multiple attacks reported across various regions. A massive overnight attack involved over 100 drones targeting central Russia and the south. Ukrainian forces report shooting down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region and are actively engaging enemy drones in multiple regions. New groups of drones are reported moving towards the Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv regions. Drones are reported near Nikopol and Hurivka. The head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Council advises residents of frontline communities to evacuate. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of guided aerial bombs being launched by tactical aircraft in the Zaporizhzhia region. An air raid alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia region. Explosions were reported in Zaporizhzhia near the port area, with casualties and damage reported. A high-speed target was reported moving from Mykolaiv region towards Kirovohrad region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports possible anti-aircraft activity against an enemy drone. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of an enemy drone approaching Kharkiv from the northwest. A high-speed target was reported in the region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a high-speed target moving from Sumy Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. Overnight, a drone attack targeted a civilian enterprise in the Novobavarskyi district, causing a large fire, damage to a gas pipe and 5 vehicles. Two civilians suffered acute stress reactions. Two drones fell in the Kyivskyi district. In the Rohanska community, a drone attack destroyed a private house and garage, injuring 2 people. In Shestakove, a drone attack caused a fire in a destroyed private house, with no reported casualties. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region. All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region. Ukrainian forces shot down 37 drones overnight. New groups of enemy drones have been reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region. New alerts for multiple regions, including Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Boryspil, Vasylkiv, and Kyiv. Confirmed drone movements across various regions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region. Three drones were shot down in Sumy region overnight. All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region. A Ukrainian drone attack on Sumy resulted in six deaths and multiple injuries. At least five groups of "Shahed" drones have been launched from Olenya.
  • New Drone Movements: The Ukrainian Air Force reported the following drone movements:
    • Drones in the north of Chernihiv region, moving south and west.
    • Drones in the east of Sumy region, moving south.
    • Drones in Kharkiv region, moving mainly west.
    • Drones in the south of Poltava region and near Khorol, moving west.
    • Drones in the east of Kyiv region, entering from the north of Cherkasy and Chernihiv regions, moving west.
    • Drones on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson regions, moving west.
    • Two drones are near Cherkasy, and one is near Kropyvnytskyi.
    • A drone is approaching Kremenchuk from the northeast.
    • Seven drones are heading towards Zaporizhzhia.
    • One drone is over Kyiv.
    • One drone is flying over Boryspil in a southwesterly direction.
    • One drone is moving from the Kyiv region to the Zhytomyr region.
    • One drone is moving from the Mykolaiv region to the Odesa region.
    • Two drones are in the south of the Kirovohrad region, heading west.
    • One drone is in the Zlatopil area of the Kharkiv region.
    • Two drones are in the north of the Poltava region, heading west.
    • One drone is in the east of the Kyiv region, heading southwest.
    • One drone is in the north of the Kyiv region, heading towards the Zhytomyr region.
    • Two drones are in the north of the Poltava region, heading west.
    • Three drones are in the central part of the Kharkiv region, heading east.
    • Four drones are in the northeast and southeast of the Kirovohrad region, heading west.
    • One drone is near Bashtanka, heading west.
    • One drone is in the southwest of the Mykolaiv region, heading towards Odesa.
    • Seven drones are in the Zaporizhzhia region, heading towards Dnipro and Kamianske.
    • Three drones are near Zaporizhzhia.
    • Five drones are near Zaporizhzhia.
    • One drone is approaching Odesa from the north.
    • Drones in Chernihiv Oblast, heading west.
    • Drones in Odesa Oblast, heading towards Odesa from the north.
    • Drones in Zaporizhzhia, heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
    • One more drone is approaching Odesa from the north. One drone is above Fontanka, moving towards the sea. The rest of the drones are moving as follows: two drones are moving from the Chernihiv region to the north of the Kyiv region; two drones are east of Chernihiv, with a southwesterly course; one drone is flying past Slavutych towards the Kyiv region. There is a threat of the use of strike drones for Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, and Zhytomyr regions, with the drones moving mainly west. 6 drones are flying over Myrhorod towards the west. 4 drones are circling east and north of Poltava. 1 drone is over Kharkiv. 4 drones are flying towards or through Pryluky. 1 drone is near Shostka. A drone is approaching Starokonstantinov. 2 drones are moving from Odesa Oblast to Vinnytsia Oblast. 1 drone is moving from Kirovohrad Oblast to Vinnytsia Oblast. 1 drone is passing Bereznegovatoye in a westerly direction. 1 drone is over Pavlograd. 3 drones are over Balakleya. 1 drone is heading towards or through Zlatopol in Kharkiv Oblast. 3 drones are passing near Zhytomyr in a westerly direction. 1 drone is passing Fastov in a westerly direction. 1 drone is approaching Kyiv via Boyarka. 3 drones are passing Cherkasy in a southwesterly direction. 2 drones are in the Mirgorod area. 5 drones are heading towards or through Priluki. 1 drone is over Nezhin. 3 drones are in the northern part of Chernihiv Oblast heading west. 4 drones are heading towards or through Vylkove. 4 drones flew past Vylkove towards Kiliia. 4 drones are moving from the Black Sea towards the Izmail district. 2 drones are moving from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi Oblast. 1 drone is in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast, with a northwesterly course. 2 drones are moving from Zhytomyr Oblast towards or through Shepetivka. 1 drone is moving from the Bilotserkivskyi district to Zhytomyr Oblast. 1 drone is approaching Kyiv via Brovary. 1 drone is north of Kyiv Oblast, heading towards or through Hostomel. 1 drone is heading towards or through Vasylkiv. 2 drones are in the east of Kyiv Oblast. 4 drones are circling in the east of Chernihiv Oblast. 1 drone is in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast, with a western course.
    • A drone is flying over Boryspil towards Kyiv.
    • Four drones are reported to be traveling near Poltava, with a westerly course.
    • Three new drones are reported to be traveling from the Black Sea towards the Izmail district.
    • A drone is reported to be approaching Starokostiantyniv.
    • One drone is reported to be traveling over Pavlohrad.
    • Three drones are reported to be traveling over Balakliia.
    • One drone is reported to be traveling near Zhytomyr in a westerly direction.
    • One drone is reported to be traveling near Fastiv in a westerly direction.
    • One drone is reported to be approaching Kyiv via Boiarka.
    • Five drones are heading towards Starokostiantyniv from Zhytomyr Oblast. Four drones are moving towards Pryluki, one drone is west of Poltava, and one drone is returning to Russian territory from Chernihiv Oblast. Two new drones have been detected moving towards Kharkiv from Belgorod. Two drones are over Chuhuiv.
• New Missile Alert: A missile alert was issued for the Odesa region.
• New Air Targets: High-speed targets were reported in the Mykolaiv region, heading north. A guided aerial missile was reported near Ochakiv, and another near Nova Odesa.
• Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate explosions during an ongoing drone attack.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine. Half of Ukraine is under air raid alert due to enemy UAVs in the airspace. An air raid alert has been declared and later lifted. A high-speed target is moving in the Black Sea towards Odesa. A high-speed target is moving in the Black Sea towards Odesa. Another high-speed target is in the Black Sea in the direction of Odesa. Another high-speed target is moving in the Black Sea towards Odesa. An air alarm has been declared for Odesa, reports that drones are approaching the city. The air raid threat has been lifted for Odesa Oblast. The air raid threat has been lifted for Kyiv. Air raid alerts have been declared for Kyiv and the Zaporizhzhia region. Reports indicate a threat of ballistic missiles.
• Mykolaiv: Two people were killed as a result of a Russian missile strike on a food industry enterprise during the night. The head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration warns of a possible massive shelling of Kherson and the suburbs by Russian forces. A cruise missile was reported south of Bashtanka, course northwest. A missile was reported in the Voznesensk area, course unchanged. The threat of missile attacks has been lifted for the Kirovohrad, Kherson, and Mykolaiv regions. A missile alert has been issued for Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts.
• Odesa:
  • Damage to residential buildings and civilian casualties were reported due to a Russian drone attack.
  • An attack on the port infrastructure was reported.
  • There is damage to residential buildings due to a Russian drone attack.
  • Four cars caught fire.
  • Explosions were reported in Odesa.
  • An air raid alert has been declared in Izmail, with reports that drones are approaching the city.
  • Russian ballistic missiles struck Odesa. Repeated explosions were heard in Odesa. Russian missiles targeted the center of Odesa. A powerful strike was carried out on the elite hotel "Bristol" in Odesa, where foreign mercenaries stayed. The enemy attacked Odesa with ballistics three times during the evening. A woman working at the "Bristol" hotel was injured as a result of the Russian strikes on Odesa. The historic center of Odesa was damaged by Russian strikes. Two people have been reported injured due to the Russian strikes. Norwegian diplomatic representatives were caught in the epicenter of the strike. The number of people injured in the missile attack on Odesa has risen to 7.
  • There is speculation about the nature of the Russian strikes on Odesa, with some suggesting they were not caused by "Geran" drones and that Ukrainian air defenses may be responsible for some of the damage. However, no concrete evidence has been presented to support these claims.
  • The "Bristol" hotel in Odesa was not hit by a direct strike, contrary to some reports. The damage was likely caused by debris from an intercepted missile.
• Cherkasy:
  • Overnight drone attack reported, with air defenses active and damage to an energy infrastructure facility in Uman.
  • The city is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast.
  • Cherkasy Oblast was attacked overnight, with air defenses active.
  • A headquarters for coordinating emergency response has been established in the Umansky district.
  • There is reported damage in the area.
• Sumy:
  • Eight people have died, and 13 were injured as a result of a drone hitting an apartment building. The number of deaths has increased to nine. Emergency work at the site of the "Shahed" drone attack on Sumy has been completed.
  • Infrastructure facilities were damaged.
  • A Shahed drone hit an apartment building, resulting in at least 7 injuries, including a child, and 1 death.
  • A rescue operation is underway for a woman trapped under debris.
  • A headquarters for emergency response will be set up.
• Synelnykivskyi district of the Dnipropetrovsk region, a lyceum was destroyed as a result of a Russian attack.
• Chernihiv: A Russian airstrike caused a large fire in Chernihiv. An explosion was reported in the suburbs of Chernihiv, attributed to a Shahed drone. Russian forces attacked non-residential facilities with drones.
• Ivano-Frankivsk: The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack. The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack from the northeast.
• Dnipro: The city of Dnipro is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast. A second explosion was reported in Dnipro. Three drones were shot down in the Dnipropetrovsk region overnight.
• Vuhledar: Russian sappers discovered mines made with 3D printers.
• Sukhi Yaly River: Russian artillerymen are targeting Ukrainian forces.
• Bryansk (Russia):
  • Two Ukrainian drones were shot down.
  • Reports that drones attacked the village of Mamai, with an explosion near the "Druzhba" oil pipeline distribution station.
  • The Bryansk region is reportedly under attack, with a series of explosions in the sky above the city.
  • A fire has broken out in one of the districts.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted several Ukrainian drones over the Bryansk region.
  • 26 drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region overnight.
  • Residents of Klimovo and Novozybkov in the Bryansk region reported explosions and subsequent fires. It is alleged that drones attempted to attack the "Novozybkov" oil pumping station of the "Druzhba" pipeline.
• Tver (Russia):
  • A fuel transfer station was reportedly attacked by Ukrainian drones.
  • A drone was shot down.
• Belgorod (Russia): A private house was attacked by a drone.
• Several drones were shot down on the approach to Smolensk.
• A drone was destroyed over Lake Ladoga, with no reported damage or casualties.
• Massive Drone Attack:
  • Over 100 drones attacked central Russia and the south overnight.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that 104 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed.
  • The enemy reportedly targeted oil refineries, enterprises, and the Smolensk nuclear power plant.
  • Most attacks were repelled, but some fires broke out at the targeted facilities.
  • Drones attacked the fourth largest oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod.
• Lipetsk (Russia): An air danger regime has been declared.
• Abkhazia: The Parliament of Abkhazia is considering a bill to expand voting opportunities for citizens in Russia.
• Ulyanovsk (Russia): Temporary restrictions have been introduced at the airport.
• Black Sea: A Ukrainian unmanned boat heading towards Crimea was destroyed in the northwestern part of the Black Sea.
• Russia: Nine Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight.
• Black Sea: As of 06:00 on 01.02.2025, there are 2 enemy ships in the Black Sea, 1 of which is a Kalibr cruise missile carrier with a total volley of up to 4 missiles.
• Azov Sea: There are no enemy ships in the Azov Sea.
• Mediterranean Sea: There are 6 enemy ships in the Mediterranean Sea, 2 of which are Kalibr cruise missile carriers with a total volley of up to 22 missiles.
• Kerch Strait: In the interests of the Russian Federation, over the past day, 5 ships passed through the Kerch Strait to the Black Sea, 2 of which continued to move towards the Bosphorus Strait; 12 ships passed to the Azov Sea, 5 of which moved from the Bosphorus Strait. The Russian Federation continues to violate the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea 1974 (SOLAS) by turning off automatic identification systems.
• Black Sea: 1 enemy Kalibr carrier is recorded in the Black Sea, with a total volley of up to 4 missiles.
• Azov Sea: No enemy ships are observed in the Azov Sea.
• Myrhorod district of Poltava Oblast, enemy attacks on energy infrastructure have been reported, leaving 164 residential and 1 business consumer without power. Restoration work is underway.

Military Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are achieving significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The capture of Velyka Novosilka is a major strategic and symbolic victory for Russian forces. Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk and Toretsk are under immense pressure, with reports indicating a potential collapse of defenses in Toretsk. The new reports of significant Russian advances in Chasiv Yar, including the beginning of cleanup operations in the railway station area, indicate a further deterioration of the situation for Ukrainian forces in this area.

Drone warfare continues to be a defining feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing UAVs extensively. The Ukrainian military confirmed the use of a long-range drone capable of carrying a 250-kilogram bomb and traveling up to 2000 km with the possibility of return. This new capability potentially allows Ukraine to strike targets deep within Russian territory and could significantly impact the course of the conflict. The increased drone activity, with 5 drones reported to be targeting Zaporizhzhia, suggests a potential escalation in aerial warfare. The new reports of at least five groups of "Shahed" drones being launched from Olenya indicate a potential intensification of Russian drone attacks. The new reports of drone movements from the Ukrainian Air Force indicate continued drone activity in Chernihiv, Kyiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. The threat of ballistic weapons from the northeast adds another layer of complexity to the situation. The new updates regarding drone movements towards Starokostiantyniv and other areas further emphasize the widespread and evolving nature of the drone threat. The reported enemy attack on Zaporizhzhia with 18 UAVs, resulting in damage to civilian infrastructure and fires, underscores the continued targeting of civilian areas and the humanitarian consequences of the conflict.

The situation in the Kursk region indicates a shift in momentum, with Russian forces regaining territory and repelling Ukrainian counterattacks. The reported involvement of North Korean soldiers adds another layer of complexity to the conflict.

The increased drone activity across multiple regions suggests a potential escalation in aerial warfare, with both sides attempting to gain an advantage through the use of UAVs. The attacks on civilian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, indicate a deliberate strategy to disrupt Ukrainian services and impact civilian morale.

The Ukrainian military is facing significant challenges in maintaining defensive positions and countering Russian advances. The reported losses in personnel and equipment, coupled with the ongoing pressure on multiple fronts, are likely straining Ukrainian capabilities.

There is discussion about the potential use of North Korean M1989 Koksan super howitzers by Russian forces.

New video evidence from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows Russian artillery from the "Vostok" group targeting Ukrainian forces in the South Donetsk direction.

The new reports of attacks on educational institutions, residential buildings, and a car wash in Zaporizhzhia indicate a continued pattern of Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure. The restoration of power in Zaporizhzhia is a positive development, but the ongoing threat of attacks remains.

Ukrainian military officers reportedly prefer to hide in Druzhkovka, more than 20 km from the front line, and use closed communication channels.

The new reports of the destruction of a Ukrainian unmanned boat in the Black Sea and the downing of nine Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions overnight indicate continued efforts by Russian forces to counter Ukrainian aerial and naval threats. The presence of one Russian Kalibr missile carrier in the Black Sea, with a capacity of up to four missiles, poses a continued threat to Ukrainian territory. The absence of Russian ships in the Azov Sea suggests a possible shift in naval strategy or a temporary lull in activity in that area. The presence of six Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea, including two Kalibr missile carriers with a total capacity of up to 22 missiles, indicates a significant Russian naval presence in the region, potentially posing a threat to NATO interests and maritime traffic. The continued movement of ships through the Kerch Strait highlights the strategic importance of this waterway for Russia's logistical and operational activities.

The new reports of six Ukrainian soldiers surrendering under Kurakhovo and their claims of being abandoned by their command, if true, could indicate morale problems within Ukrainian units in this area. This could be exploited by Russian forces for propaganda purposes and could potentially lead to further surrenders. The soldiers' statements about receiving medical treatment and good treatment from Russian forces could also be used in information operations.

Recommendations

1. Prioritize Air Defense: Given the increasing threat of drone attacks, especially in Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kropyvnytskyi, Vasylkiv, Cherkasy, Pryluky, Chernihiv, and Kyiv, it is crucial to enhance and deploy additional air defense systems, including short-range and medium-range systems, to protect these cities and critical infrastructure from drone and missile attacks.
2. Strengthen Drone Countermeasures: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk region and areas targeted by increased drone movements.
3. Address the Situation in Kharkiv: Provide immediate support to those affected by the fire in Kharkiv. Repair damaged infrastructure, including the gas pipeline, and provide medical assistance to those suffering from stress reactions. Enhance security measures in the city to protect civilians from further attacks. Address the new explosion reported in Kharkiv and assess the damage. Deploy emergency response teams if necessary and enhance air defense measures in the region.
4. Reinforce Defenses in Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk: Prioritize the deployment of reinforcements, including anti-tank weapons, air defense systems, and manpower, to **Pokrovsk, Chas