Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 1, 2025, 03:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure and achieving significant advances, particularly in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is under complete Russian control, and the situation in Pokrovsk and Toretsk is increasingly precarious. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are nearing collapse, with less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control. Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border and have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro. In the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces have advanced south of Rozlyv and expanded their control in the Dachne area. Russian forces have made significant advances in Chasiv Yar in recent hours, with reports indicating they have begun cleaning up the railway station area.

Drone warfare continues to intensify, with widespread drone attacks reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian military assets and infrastructure, including a significant drone attack on the Nizhny Novgorod oil refinery, causing a massive fire. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that 59 out of 102 enemy drones were shot down during the night of January 31, with another 37 "locationally lost" without negative consequences. There are new reports of drone activity, including drones near Cherkasy, Kropyvnytskyi, Kremenchuk, and Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian air defenses are active, engaging drones in various locations, including near Kyiv. New reports indicate that at least five groups of "Shahed" drones have been launched from Olenya. The Ukrainian Air Force reports drones in Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts moving west, and drones in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast moving north towards Kharkiv Oblast.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and reporting the capture of several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya.

US President Donald Trump confirmed that he is engaged in serious discussions with Russia regarding the conclusion of the conflict in Ukraine. He announced his intention to hold a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressing hope for a significant outcome. Trump also announced his intention to impose substantial tariffs on goods from the EU, Mexico, and Canada. The US has confirmed a 90-day freeze on most foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine, but there are conflicting reports about whether this freeze has been lifted. The Trump administration is reportedly considering placing USAID under the control of the State Department, potentially impacting global aid efforts.

New reports indicate that Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian BMP-1 near the Serebryansky Forest using two FPV drones. There's also information about a Ukrainian command post in Rylsk being hit. The Ukrainian General Staff reported 132 combat engagements on January 31st. They also detailed significant Russian losses for January in the Pokrovsk direction and Kursk region.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed under complete Russian control, with Russian flags raised throughout the town. Video evidence confirms the Russian presence and the advance from Velyka Novosilka towards Dnipropetrovsk.
• Pokrovsk: The situation is highly precarious. Russian forces are within 2 kilometers of Myrnohrad and within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. One of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro has been cut off. Russian forces report advances towards Pershe Travnia (Leontovychi), Novosergievka, and Lysivka. Ukrainian forces report repelling attacks near multiple locations. Russian airstrikes with guided aerial bombs were reported. Video evidence shows the aftermath of an artillery strike on Ukrainian positions. Russian forces report entering Novoselivka Persha and advancing towards the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost the village of Novoselivka Persha.
• Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses are under immense strain, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts and near several mines. Ukrainian forces report battles for the "Toretska" mine, described as their last defense node, with 90-95% of the city under Russian control. Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed. Tank crews of the 28th Mechanized Brigade reportedly assisted in repelling a Russian assault in the Toretsk direction.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district. Fighting continues in the Sievernyi district. Russian forces have reportedly cleared the Novosjeverny district and the summit of the "Block-9" spoil tip at the refractory plant. Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed Ukrainian Armed Forces strongholds. Russian troops are completing the cleanup of the Severnyi microdistrict and are destroying Ukrainian forces in the Shevchenko microdistrict. Russian units also took positions in the buildings south of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant and advanced in the area of the Dolgoe-II tract south of the Novyi microdistrict. In the northern part of Chasiv Yar, fighting is ongoing for the remaining part of the Novosjeverny microdistrict. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are concentrating forces in the area of Dniprovska Street in the Shevchenko microdistrict, trying to hold the south of the city. Russian FPV drones are attacking Ukrainian infantry and burning equipment on the road. There are reports of battles on the southwestern outskirts of the city. Russian forces report significant advances in Chasiv Yar over the past few days, including the beginning of cleanup operations in the railway station area.
• Kurakhove: An unexploded 155mm shell was found in the bell tower of an old church. Active combat is taking place in the Kurakhove-Sukhi Yaly area. A Russian assault group was targeted near Ulakly, with a reported advance of over 2.5 km along the northern bank of the Mokri Yaly River near Zelenivka. Heavy fighting is reported in the eastern part of Andriivka. To the west of Kurakhove, Russian troops are attempting to advance in the Dachne and Andriivka areas. On the Kurakhove direction near Dachne, Russian assault troops from the 102nd regiment continue to advance in small groups and consolidate their positions. Russian troops are trying to encircle Dachne.
• Kramatorsk Direction: Russian forces have advanced south of Rozlyv and expanded their control in the Dachne area. In Kramatorsk, 13 people were injured due to a Russian attack, including two children. Increased Russian assault activities reported.
• Siversk - Verkhnokamyanske: Active combat operations are taking place. Russian forces launched an attack towards Verkhnokamyanske, resulting in the landing of troops in the central part of the settlement. A residential area was reportedly cleared by a Russian assault group. Russian forces reportedly advanced 1.5 km in the Siversk direction and occupied new positions in Verkhnokamyanske.
• Stupochki: Positional fighting is reported near Artemivsk. Russian forces reportedly advanced at least 500 meters towards Stupochki and occupied new positions near the southern quarries of Chasiv Yar.
• Other Locations: Fighting continues in Zverevo. Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces. Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka. Russian forces report further advances near Dachne, Andriivka, Slov'yanka, and Novoandriivka. Russian forces, with an advance near Terniv, have improved their tactical position. Russian forces are making advances near Zverevo, Solone, Uspenivka, Dachne, Kotlyne, and Andriivka. Bogatyrskoe: Russian assault groups have advanced to the area of Alekseevka. Zelenovka: Fierce fighting is reported.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces report advances near Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, Zakhidne, and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka. An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka. In the direction of Hrekivka, Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.
• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River.

Kursk Region

• Fighting intensity is compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the region for 100 days. Reports indicate contractors allegedly embezzled over 3 billion rubles allocated for fortifications construction. Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed a command post of the "Kursk" troop grouping of the Russian Armed Forces in Rylsk. The coordinates of the targeted command post in Rylsk were reportedly 51.566079, 34.716233. Heavy fighting continues near Nikolsky. Russian forces report the capture of Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya. North Korean forces have reportedly withdrawn from some areas, possibly due to heavy losses. Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions. Ukrainian forces from the 73rd Naval Special Operations Center are conducting operations in the Kursk region, collecting data on Russian and North Korean troops. Russian forces, supported by artillery and FPV drones, destroyed a Ukrainian BMP-2 in the Kursk region. Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a border area of the Kursk region. Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south. Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor. Russian forces are advancing in the Kursk region, with ongoing battles near Sverdlykove and in nearby forested areas. Ukrainian forces have reportedly deployed over 100 paratroopers to the Sudzhansky district for a counterattack near Nikolsky.
• New video evidence shows a Russian soldier successfully evading multiple attacks from a Ukrainian FPV drone before shooting it down with his rifle.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian forces have taken control of Novomlynsk. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in the north of the region. Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack near Vovchansk. Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk.

Zaporizhzhia Region

• Russian forces report destroying a group of foreign mercenaries, including an Austrian special forces veteran, near Orikhiv. At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region. Russia attacked the Zaporizhzhia region 401 times overnight. In Zaporizhzhia, the situation regarding Russian drone attacks has been clarified: there were no casualties, but over 400 subscribers are without power due to damage to an infrastructure object, a multi-story building, and private homes.
• Russian forces have reportedly carried out the most massive strike on Zaporizhzhia in recent times, with over 10 attacks reported.
• The aftermath of the attacks on Zaporizhzhia includes damage to private homes, with windows blown out and roofs damaged. Over 400 subscribers are without power due to the attack.
• New video evidence shows the aftermath of a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia, with damage to a firetruck, a multi-story educational institution, and surrounding buildings.

Other Regions

• Drone Warfare: Intensified drone warfare continues, with multiple attacks reported across various regions. A massive overnight attack involved over 100 drones targeting central Russia and the south. Ukrainian forces report shooting down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region and are actively engaging enemy drones in multiple regions. New groups of drones are reported moving towards the Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv regions. Drones are reported near Nikopol and Hurivka. The head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Council advises residents of frontline communities to evacuate. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of guided aerial bombs being launched by tactical aircraft in the Zaporizhzhia region. An air raid alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia region. Explosions were reported in Zaporizhzhia near the port area, with casualties and damage reported. A high-speed target was reported moving from Mykolaiv region towards Kirovohrad region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports possible anti-aircraft activity against an enemy drone. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of an enemy drone approaching Kharkiv from the northwest. A high-speed target was reported in the region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a high-speed target moving from Sumy Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. Overnight, a drone attack targeted a civilian enterprise in the Novobavarskyi district, causing a large fire, damage to a gas pipe and 5 vehicles. Two civilians suffered acute stress reactions. Two drones fell in the Kyivskyi district. In the Rohanska community, a drone attack destroyed a private house and garage, injuring 2 people. In Shestakove, a drone attack caused a fire in a destroyed private house, with no reported casualties. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region. All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region. Ukrainian forces shot down 37 drones overnight. New groups of enemy drones have been reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region. Four drones are heading towards or through Vylkove. Four drones flew past Vylkove towards Kiliia. Four drones are moving from the Black Sea towards the Izmail district. Two drones are moving from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi Oblast. One drone is in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast, with a northwesterly course. Two drones are moving from Zhytomyr Oblast towards or through Shepetivka. One drone is moving from the Bilotserkivskyi district to Zhytomyr Oblast. One drone is approaching Kyiv via Brovary. One drone is north of Kyiv Oblast, heading towards or through Hostomel. One drone is heading towards or through Vasylkiv. Two drones are in the east of Kyiv Oblast. Four drones are circling in the east of Chernihiv Oblast. One drone is in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast, with a western course. New groups of "Shahed" drones are moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast. Three new drones are moving from the Black Sea towards the Izmail district. New alerts for multiple regions, including Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Boryspil, Vasylkiv, and Kyiv. Confirmed drone movements across various regions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region. Three drones were shot down in Sumy region overnight. All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region. A Ukrainian drone attack on Sumy resulted in six deaths and multiple injuries. 7 drones are flying over Myrhorod towards the west. 4 drones are circling east and north of Poltava. 1 drone is over Kharkiv. 4 drones are flying towards or through Pryluky. 1 drone is near Shostka. At least five groups of "Shahed" drones have been launched from Olenya.
  • New Drone Movements: The Ukrainian Air Force reported the following drone movements:
    • Drones in the north of Chernihiv region, moving south and west.
    • Drones in the east of Sumy region, moving south.
    • Drones in Kharkiv region, moving mainly west.
    • Drones in the south of Poltava region and near Khorol, moving west.
    • Drones in the east of Kyiv region, entering from the north of Cherkasy and Chernihiv regions, moving west.
    • Drones on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson regions, moving west.
    • Two drones are near Cherkasy, and one is near Kropyvnytskyi.
    • A drone is approaching Kremenchuk from the northeast.
    • Seven drones are heading towards Zaporizhzhia.
    • One drone is over Kyiv.
    • One drone is flying over Boryspil in a southwesterly direction.
    • One drone is moving from the Kyiv region to the Zhytomyr region.
    • One drone is moving from the Mykolaiv region to the Odesa region.
    • Two drones are in the south of the Kirovohrad region, heading west.
    • One drone is in the Zlatopil area of the Kharkiv region.
    • Two drones are in the north of the Poltava region, heading west.
    • One drone is in the east of the Kyiv region, heading southwest.
    • One drone is in the north of the Kyiv region, heading towards the Zhytomyr region.
    • Two drones are in the north of the Poltava region, heading west.
    • Three drones are in the central part of the Kharkiv region, heading east.
    • Four drones are in the northeast and southeast of the Kirovohrad region, heading west.
    • One drone is near Bashtanka, heading west.
    • One drone is in the southwest of the Mykolaiv region, heading towards Odesa.
    • Seven drones are in the Zaporizhzhia region, heading towards Dnipro and Kamianske.
    • Three drones are near Zaporizhzhia.
    • Five drones are near Zaporizhzhia.
    • One drone is approaching Odesa from the north.
    • Drones in Chernihiv Oblast, heading west.
    • Drones in Odesa Oblast, heading towards Odesa from the north.
    • Drones in Zaporizhzhia, heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
    • One more drone is approaching Odesa from the north. One drone is above Fontanka, moving towards the sea. The rest of the drones are moving as follows: two drones are moving from the Chernihiv region to the north of the Kyiv region; two drones are east of Chernihiv, with a southwesterly course; one drone is flying past Slavutych towards the Kyiv region.
  • New Missile Alert: A missile alert was issued for the Odesa region.
  • New Air Targets: High-speed targets were reported in the Mykolaiv region, heading north. A guided aerial missile was reported near Ochakiv, and another near Nova Odesa.
• Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate explosions during an ongoing drone attack.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine. Half of Ukraine is under air raid alert due to enemy UAVs in the airspace. An air raid alert has been declared and later lifted. A high-speed target is moving in the Black Sea towards Odesa. A high-speed target is moving in the Black Sea towards Odesa. Another high-speed target is in the Black Sea in the direction of Odesa. Another high-speed target is moving in the Black Sea towards Odesa. An air alarm has been declared for Odesa, reports that drones are approaching the city. The air raid threat has been lifted for Odesa Oblast. The air raid threat has been lifted for Kyiv.
• Mykolaiv: Two people were killed as a result of a Russian missile strike on a food industry enterprise during the night. The head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration warns of a possible massive shelling of Kherson and the suburbs by Russian forces. A cruise missile was reported south of Bashtanka, course northwest. A missile was reported in the Voznesensk area, course unchanged. The threat of missile attacks has been lifted for the Kirovohrad, Kherson, and Mykolaiv regions.
• Odesa:
  • Damage to residential buildings and civilian casualties were reported due to a Russian drone attack.
  • An attack on the port infrastructure was reported.
  • There is damage to residential buildings due to a Russian drone attack.
  • Four cars caught fire.
  • Explosions were reported in Odesa.
  • An air raid alert has been declared in Izmail, with reports that drones are approaching the city.
  • Russian ballistic missiles struck Odesa. Repeated explosions were heard in Odesa. Russian missiles targeted the center of Odesa. A powerful strike was carried out on the elite hotel "Bristol" in Odesa, where foreign mercenaries stayed. The enemy attacked Odesa with ballistics three times during the evening. A woman working at the "Bristol" hotel was injured as a result of the Russian strikes on Odesa. The historic center of Odesa was damaged by Russian strikes. Two people have been reported injured due to the Russian strikes. Norwegian diplomatic representatives were caught in the epicenter of the strike. The number of people injured in the missile attack on Odesa has risen to 7.
  • There is speculation about the nature of the Russian strikes on Odesa, with some suggesting they were not caused by "Geran" drones and that Ukrainian air defenses may be responsible for some of the damage. However, no concrete evidence has been presented to support these claims.
  • The "Bristol" hotel in Odesa was not hit by a direct strike, contrary to some reports. The damage was likely caused by debris from an intercepted missile.
• Cherkasy:
  • Overnight drone attack reported, with air defenses active and damage to an energy infrastructure facility in Uman.
  • The city is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast.
  • Cherkasy Oblast was attacked overnight, with air defenses active.
  • A headquarters for coordinating emergency response has been established in the Umansky district.
  • There is reported damage in the area.
• Sumy:
  • Eight people have died, and 13 were injured as a result of a drone hitting an apartment building. The number of deaths has increased to nine. Emergency work at the site of the "Shahed" drone attack on Sumy has been completed.
  • Infrastructure facilities were damaged.
  • A Shahed drone hit an apartment building, resulting in at least 7 injuries, including a child, and 1 death.
  • A rescue operation is underway for a woman trapped under debris.
  • A headquarters for emergency response will be set up.
• Synelnykivskyi district of the Dnipropetrovsk region, a lyceum was destroyed as a result of a Russian attack.
• Chernihiv: A Russian airstrike caused a large fire in Chernihiv. An explosion was reported in the suburbs of Chernihiv, attributed to a Shahed drone. Russian forces attacked non-residential facilities with drones.
• Ivano-Frankivsk: The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack. The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack from the northeast.
• Dnipropetrovsk: The city of Dnipro is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast. A second explosion was reported in Dnipro. Three drones were shot down in the Dnipropetrovsk region overnight.
• Vuhledar: Russian sappers discovered mines made with 3D printers.
• Sukhi Yaly River: Russian artillerymen are targeting Ukrainian forces.
• Bryansk (Russia):
  • Two Ukrainian drones were shot down.
  • Reports that drones attacked the village of Mamai, with an explosion near the "Druzhba" oil pipeline distribution station.
  • The Bryansk region is reportedly under attack, with a series of explosions in the sky above the city.
  • A fire has broken out in one of the districts.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted several Ukrainian drones over the Bryansk region.
  • 26 drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region overnight.
  • Residents of Klimovo and Novozybkov in the Bryansk region reported explosions and subsequent fires. It is alleged that drones attempted to attack the "Novozybkov" oil pumping station of the "Druzhba" pipeline.
• Tver (Russia):
  • A fuel transfer station was reportedly attacked by Ukrainian drones.
  • A drone was shot down.
• Belgorod (Russia): A private house was attacked by a drone.
• Several drones were shot down on the approach to Smolensk.
• A drone was destroyed over Lake Ladoga, with no reported damage or casualties.
• Massive Drone Attack:
  • Over 100 drones attacked central Russia and the south overnight.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that 104 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed.
  • The enemy reportedly targeted oil refineries, enterprises, and the Smolensk nuclear power plant.
  • Most attacks were repelled, but some fires broke out at the targeted facilities.
  • Drones attacked the fourth largest oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod.
• Lipetsk (Russia): An air danger regime has been declared.
• Abkhazia: The Parliament of Abkhazia is considering a bill to expand voting opportunities for citizens in Russia.

Military Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are achieving significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The capture of Velyka Novosilka is a major strategic and symbolic victory for Russian forces. Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk and Toretsk are under immense pressure, with reports indicating a potential collapse of defenses in Toretsk. The new reports of significant Russian advances in Chasiv Yar, including the beginning of cleanup operations in the railway station area, indicate a further deterioration of the situation for Ukrainian forces in this area.

Drone warfare continues to be a defining feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing UAVs extensively. The Ukrainian military confirmed the use of a long-range drone capable of carrying a 250-kilogram bomb and traveling up to 2000 km with the possibility of return. This new capability potentially allows Ukraine to strike targets deep within Russian territory and could significantly impact the course of the conflict. The increased drone activity, with 5 drones reported to be targeting Zaporizhzhia, suggests a potential escalation in aerial warfare. The new reports of at least five groups of "Shahed" drones being launched from Olenya indicate a potential intensification of Russian drone attacks. The new reports of drone movements from the Ukrainian Air Force indicate continued drone activity in Chernihiv, Kyiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.

The situation in the Kursk region indicates a shift in momentum, with Russian forces regaining territory and repelling Ukrainian counterattacks. The reported involvement of North Korean soldiers adds another layer of complexity to the conflict.

The increased drone activity across multiple regions suggests a potential escalation in aerial warfare, with both sides attempting to gain an advantage through the use of UAVs. The attacks on civilian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, indicate a deliberate strategy to disrupt Ukrainian services and impact civilian morale.

The Ukrainian military is facing significant challenges in maintaining defensive positions and countering Russian advances. The reported losses in personnel and equipment, coupled with the ongoing pressure on multiple fronts, are likely straining Ukrainian capabilities.

There is discussion about the potential use of North Korean M1989 Koksan super howitzers by Russian forces. These long-range artillery pieces could significantly enhance Russia's firepower, particularly in the Zaporizhzhia, South Donetsk, and Kursk regions. However, their effectiveness will depend on factors such as maintenance, availability of high-precision ammunition, and the ability to integrate them into the existing command and control structure.

New video evidence from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows Russian artillery from the "Vostok" group targeting Ukrainian forces in the South Donetsk direction. The footage demonstrates the use of BM-21 Grad Multiple Rocket Launchers (MLRs) for area saturation fire, highlighting their continued importance in the conflict. The video also shows the logistical process of loading individual rockets, the adjustment of the firing system, the movement of the launch vehicle, and the firing of a volley of rockets at night. The use of camouflage and the thermal footage of the impact area suggest an attempt to conceal the launch vehicle from visual observation and the area-of-effect capability of the system. The night firing indicates the capability to operate under low-visibility conditions. The thermal imagery of the impact area suggests a pre-planned attack on a large grouping of targets, likely vehicles.

Strategic Implications

The continued Russian advances and the intensity of the fighting suggest that the conflict may be entering a new phase, with a potential shift in momentum in favor of Russian forces. The situation requires a reassessment of Ukrainian defensive strategies and a focus on strengthening positions, securing supply lines, and enhancing counter-drone capabilities.

The international community's response to the evolving situation will be crucial in determining the future course of the conflict. Continued military and financial aid to Ukraine, particularly in the form of air defense systems, anti-tank weapons, and counter-drone technology, will be essential in bolstering Ukrainian defenses. The confirmation of a 90-day freeze on US foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine, has significant implications. Trump's announcement of a potential conversation with Putin adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical situation.

The potential involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, if confirmed, could further complicate the geopolitical landscape.

The ongoing attacks on civilian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, indicate a deliberate strategy by Russian forces to disrupt Ukrainian services and impact civilian morale.

The extensive use of drones by both sides highlights the importance of electronic warfare capabilities in modern conflict. The ability to counter enemy drones, disrupt their communications, and protect friendly forces from enemy surveillance will be crucial for maintaining an advantage on the battlefield.

The new air raid alerts and reports of drone activity underscore the need for Ukraine to enhance its air defense capabilities and to prepare for potential escalations in aerial warfare.

The new reports of drone movements indicate a continued threat across multiple regions, requiring heightened vigilance and the deployment of air defense and counter-drone measures.

New Developments

• Drone Capabilities: The Ukrainian military confirmed the use of a long-range drone capable of carrying a 250-kilogram bomb and traveling up to 2000 km with the possibility of return. The confirmed use of a long-range drone capable of carrying a 250-kilogram bomb and traveling up to 2000 km with the possibility of return has significant strategic implications. This new capability potentially allows Ukraine to strike targets deep within Russian territory and could significantly impact the course of the conflict.
• Netherlands Military Aid: The Netherlands announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, including additional F-16 fighter jets, 400 million euros for drones, and cooperation on long-range weapons projects.
• US Aid Uncertainty: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly assured the Italian Foreign Minister that the US will not abandon Ukraine, despite the confirmed 90-day freeze on most foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine.
• Ammunition Supplies: The Czech Republic has reportedly supplied Ukraine with 1.5 million ammunition rounds, including a third being 155mm artillery shells.
• Allegations of Ukrainian Atrocities: A captured Ukrainian soldier gave a graphic account of atrocities committed by the 92nd Assault Brigade in the village of Russkoye Porechnoye, Kursk region, including the murder of 22 civilians and the rape of 8 women. A video from Selidovo provides further accounts of alleged atrocities committed by Ukrainian forces, including shootings and beatings of civilians. The video also claims that Ukrainian forces indiscriminately shelled the city and looted from residents.
• Bryansk (Russia):
  • Two Ukrainian drones were shot down.
  • Reports that drones attacked the village of Mamai, with an explosion near the "Druzhba" oil pipeline distribution station.
  • The Bryansk region is reportedly under attack, with a series of explosions in the sky above the city.
  • A fire has broken out in one of the districts.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted several Ukrainian drones over the Bryansk region.
  • 26 drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region overnight.
  • Residents of Klimovo and Novozybkov in the Bryansk region reported explosions and subsequent fires. It is alleged that drones attempted to attack the "Novozybkov" oil pumping station of the "Druzhba" pipeline.
• Tver (Russia):
  • A fuel transfer station was reportedly attacked by Ukrainian drones.
  • A drone was shot down.
• Belgorod (Russia): A private house was attacked by a drone.
• Several drones were shot down on the approach to Smolensk.
• A drone was destroyed over Lake Ladoga, with no reported damage or casualties.
• Massive Drone Attack:
  • Over 100 drones attacked central Russia and the south overnight.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that 104 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed.
  • The enemy reportedly targeted oil refineries, enterprises, and the Smolensk nuclear power plant.
  • Most attacks were repelled, but some fires broke out at the targeted facilities.
  • Drones attacked the fourth largest oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod.
• Lipetsk (Russia): An air danger regime has been declared.
• Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War: Held an online meeting with the families of the soldiers of the reactive artillery division of the 36th separate marine brigade named after Rear Admiral Mykhailo Bilinsky.
• Russian Advances: Russian forces report further advances near Dachne, Andriivka, Slov'yanka, and Novoandriivka. Russian forces, with an advance near Terniv, have improved their tactical position and destroyed three strong