Major Updates on the Military Situation in Ukraine (as of January 31, 2025, 13:38 UTC)

Overall Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian troops maintain offensive pressure across multiple fronts, particularly in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is under complete Russian control, and the situation in Pokrovsk is highly precarious. Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are under immense strain. Drone warfare continues to intensify, with multiple drone attacks reported across various regions. Ukrainian forces successfully struck a Russian 2S43 Malva self-propelled howitzer and a Russian mortar position. The Ukrainian Armed Forces claim to have destroyed a command post of the "Kursk" troop grouping of the Russian Armed Forces in Rylsk, Kursk region. The situation in the Kursk region remains tense. Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold their occupied portion of the region for 100 days.

Su-34 fighter-bombers, accompanied by Su-35S, destroyed a stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region. The enemy has begun to prepare for the evacuation of the population from the southeastern regions of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Finland is providing Ukraine with a new aid package worth nearly 200 million euros, while Great Britain will provide up to £2 billion for air defense systems and missiles. The status of US aid remains uncertain, with former president Trump stating he does not want to provide more aid to Ukraine and does not want Ukraine to be accepted into NATO. The diplomatic and political situation is complex, with the Russian State Duma accusing the US of discussing an assassination attempt on Putin. The EU is considering new sanctions against Russia.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka: Under complete Russian control. Russian forces are advancing from Velyka Novosilka towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. One of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro has been cut off. Intense fighting is reported near Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, Novohrodivka, and Udachne. Ukrainian defenses are under immense pressure, with 67 attacks reported in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian forces report repelling attacks near multiple settlements.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi and Sievernyi districts. Fighting continues on the outskirts and the southwestern outskirts.
Kurakhove: Most of the city has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. Russian forces are advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk. Heavy fighting is reported in the eastern part of Andriivka. Video evidence shows a soldier eliminating a Russian soldier near Kurakhove. Fighting is reported near Petropavlivka, Dachnoe, and Sukhykh Yal. Russian forces are advancing up to 1.5 km west of Kurakhove.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses are under immense strain, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts and near several mines. Ukrainian forces report battles for the "Toretska" mine, with 90-95% of the city under Russian control. A captured Russian soldier from the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade detailed his experience, highlighting poor training, equipment shortages, and low morale within Russian units. He also spoke of threats from commanders and being forced into service. This information, along with other reports, suggests potential issues with troop quality, discipline, and command within certain Russian units.
Siversk - Verkhnokamyanske: Active combat operations are taking place. Russian forces launched an attack towards Verkhnokamyanske, resulting in the landing of troops in the central part of the settlement. Russian forces reportedly advanced 1.5 km in the Siversk direction and occupied new positions in Verkhnokamyanske.
Kramatorsk Direction: Russian forces have advanced south of Rozlyv and expanded their control in the Dachne area. A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk. Increased Russian assault activities are reported.
Other Locations: Novoyeлизаvetovka, Zverevo, Solone, Uspenivka, Dachne, Kotlyne, and Andriivka are seeing active fighting or advances by Russian forces. Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces. Bogatyrskoe assault groups have advanced to the area of Alekseevka. Zelenovka reports fierce fighting. Vuhledar sappers discovered mines made with 3D printers. Sukhi Yaly River is a target of Russian artillery. Pokrovsk Direction sees advancing Russian forces, with battles near Udachne. Ukrainian forces reportedly lost Novoselivka Persha and repelled 7 Russian assaults in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian aviation destroyed a bridge near Konstantinopol built by Ukrainian forces.
Dzerzhynsk Direction: Russian forces continue to increase their firepower near Dzerzhynsk and are expanding their control towards Shcherbynivka. Aviation and artillery are targeting Ukrainian strongholds.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, Zakhidne, and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River. Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic, with a 2 km advance northwest of Makiivka and 400m in the direction of Hrekivka.
Bohuslavka: Russian forces have initiated battles.
Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk.
Video evidence shows the destruction of an M113 and a "Spartan" armored personnel carrier by Russian FPV drones near Petrovske/Hrekivka.

Kursk Region

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory.
Russian forces report the capture of Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya. The liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino has been confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Heavy fighting continues near Nikolsky.
Sudzha: Russian forces are bypassing the city from the south.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian assault force during an attempted landing near Tetkino.
Reports of significant North Korean casualties, with estimates ranging from 300 to 4,000 killed.
Drone operators of the Special Operations Forces destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers.
Reports indicate that contractors have allegedly embezzled over 3 billion rubles allocated for the construction of fortifications.
Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the Kursk region for 100 days.
Nikolaevo-Daryino has been cleared.
In the Kursk region, the enemy delivered up to a company of militants to Nikolsky. After entering the area, the enemy troops tried to attack, our troops repulsed the attack with fire, the enemy suffered losses of up to 50 people. From Nikolsky, they are pressing in the direction of Russkoye Porechnoye to cut off the enemy grouping at Malaya Lokna and to the north. In the northern part of Russkoye Porechnoye, they struck a group of the enemy, resulting in the loss of one AFV and about 20 personnel in the temporary deployment point. Crimean paratroopers are pressing on Sverdlikovo, where the paratroopers' UAV operators also hit an enemy tank. The elimination of Ukrainians from the nearest forest plantations is ongoing.
The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov inspected the Yug Group of Forces.
Russian forces are continuing to advance in the region of Sverdlikovo and north of Guevo.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have suffered significant losses in the Kursk region, with over 240 troops and two ammunition depots lost in the past 24 hours. Overall losses are reported to exceed 56,000.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces claim to have destroyed a command post of the "Kursk" troop grouping of the Russian Armed Forces in Rylsk, Kursk region. This is presented as part of a systematic effort to disrupt enemy command and control.
Su-34 fighter-bombers, accompanied by Su-35S, destroyed a stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks: Multiple reports of drone attacks and explosions in Kharkiv and surrounding areas. A fire broke out at an energy facility. Two civilians suffered acute stress reactions. In the Rohanska community, a drone attack destroyed a private house and garage, injuring 2 people. In Shestakove, a drone attack caused a fire in a destroyed private house, with no reported casualties.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna. Russian forces have reportedly liberated Dvorichna.
Kupiansk: Under renewed heavy shelling. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm the city.
Vovchansk: Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack.
Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports possible anti-aircraft activity against an enemy drone and warns of an enemy drone approaching Kharkiv from the northwest.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in the north of Kharkiv region.

Zaporizhzhia Region

An air raid alert has been declared and later lifted.
At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Russia attacked the Zaporizhzhia region 401 times overnight.
Soldiers of the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade of the Security Service of Ukraine organized a "Goooood morning" for the Russians on the western outskirts of Novovasylivka.
Ukrainian artillery strikes on concrete shelters of Russian forces in Hola Prystan, Kherson region, using 155-mm high-precision guided munition M712 Copperhead with laser guidance.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Drone Activity: Confirmed drone attacks inside Russia, with a massive overnight attack involving over 100 drones targeting central Russia and the south. Most drones were reportedly intercepted, but some hit their targets, including an oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod. New reports of drone movements towards multiple regions indicate a potential expansion and intensification of the drone conflict. Confirmed drone attacks on Odesa and Bryansk resulted in damage to residential buildings and a fire near the "Druzhba" oil pipeline distribution station, respectively.
Bryansk (Russia): Two Ukrainian drones were shot down. Reports that drones attacked the village of Mamai, with an explosion near the "Druzhba" oil pipeline distribution station. The Bryansk region is reportedly under attack, with a series of explosions in the sky above the city. A fire has broken out in one of the districts. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted several Ukrainian drones over the Bryansk region. 26 drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region overnight. Residents of Klimovo and Novozybkov reported explosions and subsequent fires. It is alleged that drones attempted to attack the "Novozybkov" oil pumping station of the "Druzhba" pipeline.
Tver (Russia): A fuel transfer station was reportedly attacked by Ukrainian drones. A drone was shot down.
Belgorod (Russia): A private house was attacked by a drone. A drone attack resulted in the deaths of a woman and a two-year-old child.
Several drones were shot down on the approach to Smolensk.
A drone was destroyed over Lake Ladoga, with no reported damage or casualties.
Massive Drone Attack: Over 100 drones attacked central Russia and the south overnight. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that 104 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed across multiple oblasts. The enemy reportedly targeted oil refineries, enterprises, and the Smolensk nuclear power plant. Most attacks were repelled, but some fires broke out at the targeted facilities. Drones attacked the fourth-largest oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod. Ukrainian sources confirm that at least four drones hit the Kstovo oil refinery, causing a large-scale fire. Video evidence shows a fire at the "Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez" oil refinery and a large-scale fire at a nighttime industrial site, likely the result of a deliberate strike. The fire is identified as the Kstovo oil refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region, also known as "Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez".
Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region. All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region. Ukrainian forces shot down 37 drones overnight.
New groups of enemy drones have been reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region. The Ukrainian Air Force reported an end to the threat of attack drones across all regions.
There are numerous reports indicating a significant number of drones active across Ukraine, with specific movements noted across multiple oblasts.
Ukrainian air defense is actively engaging enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast.
Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate explosions during an ongoing drone attack.
Chernihiv and Sumy: Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy drones moving towards Chernihiv and Sumy from the northeast.
Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: One drone is flying between Ivano-Frankivsk and Kolomyia.
Ternopil Oblast: Two drones have moved from Khmelnytskyi Oblast to the south of Ternopil Oblast.
Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast.
Kirovohrad Oblast: Three drones are in Pervomaisk district. Another drone is in the eastern part of the region, moving west.
Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is circling east of Smila. Two drones are north of Uman, moving west. A drone is reported north of Kamyanske, moving north. Another drone is reported in the north of the region, moving west.
Chernihiv Oblast: Two drones are in the Nizhyn area. One drone is moving towards Chernihiv from the northeast. Other drones are reported in the west and east of the region, moving west.
Kyiv Oblast: Drones are reported on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts. Debris from a downed drone fell near a metro station in Kyiv, damaging a building.
Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are reported in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast.
Vinnytsia Oblast: Drones are reported in the northeast and northwest of Vinnytsia Oblast.
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Drones are reported in the west of Khmelnytskyi Oblast. One drone is moving north-west.
Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Drones are reported in the center of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the northwest of Mykolaiv Oblast. A drone was detected in the region, changing direction towards the region.
Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the west and southwest of Chernihiv Oblast. A drone is in the south of Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast.
Poltava Oblast: A drone is reported in the north, constantly changing course.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on the presence of Russian warships and missile carriers in the Black Sea, Sea of Azov, and Mediterranean Sea.
Ukrainian forces report repelling a drone attack in the Rostov region.
Ukrainian forces report that Russia launched 100 drones overnight, with 65 shot down by Ukrainian air defenses.
Russian air defense reportedly continues to shoot down drones launched by Ukrainian forces in multiple regions. Five drones were destroyed over the Smolensk region, two over the Belgorod region, two over the Bryansk region, and one over Crimea.
The soldiers of the special unit "Wings of Omega" destroyed 2 Russian BTRs along with their crews using FPV drones.
Video evidence shows the destruction of an M113 and a "Spartan" armored personnel carrier by Russian FPV drones near Petrovske/Hrekivka.
The Ukrainian military is adapting its force structure, creating new units focused on drone warfare. The 59th Motorized Brigade has been transformed into an assault brigade specializing in drone systems, and the 9th Motorized Battalion has been expanded into the 9th Separate Unmanned Systems Brigade. Additionally, the "Achilles" drone battalion of the 92nd Assault Brigade has been expanded into the 429th Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment. The 225th Separate Assault Battalion has also been expanded into a regiment.
Drone operators of the 375th OPTRDN 47th TD, which is part of the "Office" group, are dismantling the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kupyansk.

Use of FPV Drones

Used to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
Successfully destroyed a Ukrainian T-72M1 tank in the Kursk border area.
Used for 6 minutes of continuous strikes by Ukrainian forces on Russian positions and personnel in the Kursk region.
A Russian FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Kozak" armored vehicle in the Kursk region.
Video evidence shows a Russian FPV drone attack on Ukrainian forces in a trench. The footage demonstrates the use of drones for both surveillance and direct attack.
Drone operators destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers.
FPV drones of the Rubikon Center destroyed an AFU communication system in the Kursk direction.

Use of UAVs

Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region.
Ukrainian forces shot down 37 drones overnight.
Ukrainian forces shot down 39 drones overnight.
Used for attack on Kharkiv hit a private sector in the Kholodnohirskyi district.
Used for attack on residential buildings in Odesa.
Used for attack on an energy infrastructure facility in Uman.
Used for attack on an apartment building in Sumy.
Used for attack on a residential building in Sumy.
Ukrainian forces targeted and destroyed a Russian "Orlan" UAV ground control station using a missile strike.
Army aviation of the 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army, operating in the area of responsibility of the "East" group, destroyed a bridge across the Sukhi Yaly River, built by the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the settlement of Konstantinopol.

Other Regions

Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine. Half of Ukraine is under air raid alert due to enemy UAVs in the airspace. An air raid alert has been announced in the Zaporizhzhia region. Air raid alerts have been issued in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine (Kyivska, Chernihivska, Poltavska, Sumska, Cherkaska, Kirovohradska), with the threat of ballistic missile attacks.
Kyiv: Enemy UAVs are in the vicinity of the city, with air defenses engaging. Debris from a downed drone fell in the Desnianskyi district, causing a fire. Explosions have been reported, indicating a possible air attack or air defense activity.
Sumy: Eight people have died, and 13 were injured as a result of a drone hitting an apartment building. The number of deaths has increased to nine. Emergency work at the site of the "Shahed" drone attack on Sumy has been completed. As a result of a drone attack on the Ukrainian city of Sumy at least one person was killed, and at least seven were injured. The number of injured has now risen to nine, with reports indicating that nine apartments and 12 balconies were destroyed in a 10-story residential building. Four people, including one child, were rescued, and 118 people were evacuated. The death toll has now risen to six. Infrastructure facilities were damaged. A Shahed drone hit an apartment building, resulting in at least 7 injuries, including a child, and 1 death. A rescue operation is underway for a woman trapped under debris. A headquarters for emergency response will be set up. Launch of guided aerial bombs by tactical aircraft in the Sumy region.
Odesa: Damage to residential buildings and civilian casualties were reported due to a Russian drone attack. An attack on the port infrastructure was reported. There is damage to residential buildings due to a Russian drone attack. Four cars caught fire. Explosions were reported in Odesa. An air raid alert has been declared in Izmail, with reports that drones are approaching the city. An explosion occurred at night in the city of Izmail, Odesa region. Images of the aftermath were published by the Izmail Regional State Administration.
Cherkasy: Overnight drone attack reported, with air defenses active and damage to an energy infrastructure facility in Uman.
Mykolaiv: Two people were killed as a result of a Russian missile strike on a food industry enterprise during the night.
The head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration warns of a possible massive shelling of Kherson and the suburbs by Russian forces.
Lipetsk Oblast in Russia has declared an air danger regime.
Synelnykivskyi district of the Dnipropetrovsk region, a lyceum was destroyed as a result of a Russian attack.
Chernihiv: A Russian airstrike caused a large fire in Chernihiv yesterday. The targets were likely high-voltage equipment storage facilities or communication and control complexes.
The enemy has begun to prepare for the evacuation of the population from the southeastern regions of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Diplomatic and Political Developments

The State Duma of the Russian Federation directed an appeal to the US Congress in connection with information about Biden and Blinken discussing the organization of an assassination attempt on Putin.
The State Duma regards the lack of reaction from Biden and Blinken to Carlson's statement about attempts to "kill" Putin as proof of their guilt.
Discussion of the issue of the physical elimination of the President of the Russian Federation can be qualified as an act of terrorism, according to the State Duma.
The EU is considering disabling SWIFT for 15 banks and imposing a phased ban on Russian aluminum imports.
The new Syrian authorities have requested compensation from Russia to restore trust.
A delegation from Georgia has suspended its work in the PACE.
Maria Zakharova has urged for careful verification of statements made by Western politicians.
Structures at Domodedovo airport are reportedly under foreign control.
"Gruzinsky National Legion": This group, recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia, is accused by Slovak Prime Minister Fico of being behind anti-government protests in Slovakia. This adds another layer to the international dimension of the conflict, with allegations of foreign interference in internal affairs.

Military Aid and Support

Finland is providing Ukraine with a new aid package worth nearly 200 million euros. This package is designed in close cooperation with Ukrainians and aims to provide support in the "acute situation on the front." Finland has already provided Ukraine with 2.5 billion euros in defense equipment.
Great Britain will provide Ukraine with up to £2 billion for the purchase of air defense systems and missiles, according to Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal. The government has approved a bill to ratify a framework agreement between Ukraine and Great Britain to support the development of Ukraine's defense capabilities.
The US has lifted the 90-day freeze on most foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine. However, the White House press secretary has denied the lifting of the freeze, creating confusion regarding the status of US aid.
Donald Trump has stated he does not want to provide more aid to Ukraine and does not want Ukraine to be accepted into NATO, according to The Washington Post. He believes that ensuring a ceasefire and Ukraine's security is Europe's problem. This stance could significantly impact the conflict and future negotiations.

Other Significant Events

Ten civilians were injured in Horlivka due to shelling, according to the head of the city administration, Ivan Prikhodko. The shelling also hit a residential area in the Nikitovsky district.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has reiterated that the contract with Marina Bezrukova will not be extended. Arsen Zhumadilov will temporarily lead the Defense Procurement Agency starting February 1, 2025.
Explosions were reported in Berdyansk near the port area.
Chernihiv came under attack, with Russian forces targeting non-residential facilities with drones.
The government decided to extend until February 28 the permission for manufacturers to export gasoline, according to a representative of Novak.
Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed a command post of the "Kursk" troop grouping of the Russian Armed Forces in Rylsk, Kursk region.
Reports indicate that the "Gruzinsky National Legion," a group fighting for Ukraine, is behind anti-government protests in Slovakia. This group is recognized as a terrorist organization and is banned in Russia.
New video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to deliver supplies and conduct reconnaissance.
Ukrainian intelligence reports finding leaflets aimed at demoralizing Ukrainian soldiers, suggesting psychological warfare tactics are being employed.
A captured Russian soldier from the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade provided information about his unit, training, and the presence of foreign fighters in Russian ranks.
46% of Danes consider the United States a "very big threat" or "quite a big threat" to Denmark. This is higher than the number of those who consider North Korea or Iran a threat - 44% and 40%, respectively. 78% of respondents said they would oppose the sale of Greenland to the United States, but 72% said that the final decision should be made by Greenland, not Denmark.

Updated Recommendations

Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of these cities to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
Address the Situation in Velyka Novosilka: Conduct rearguard actions in the surrounding areas to slow the Russian advance and inflict maximum casualties.
Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones. Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and military assets.
Strengthen Air Defenses: Deploy additional air defense systems, including short-range and medium-range systems, to protect cities and critical infrastructure from drone and missile attacks.
Secure Supply Lines: Establish alternative routes to ensure the continued flow of troops, equipment, and supplies to the front lines.
International Support: Continue to engage with international partners to secure additional military and financial aid. Emphasize the need for advanced weaponry, including long-range strike capabilities and air defense systems.
Counter Disinformation: Address Russian disinformation and propaganda campaigns by providing accurate and timely information. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Focus on building a sustainable defense industry, securing long-term military and financial aid, and developing strategies to counter Russian tactics.
Monitor and Respond to Drone Movements: Continuously monitor drone movements and deploy rapid response units to intercept drones and protect vulnerable areas.
Intelligence Gathering: Utilize all available intelligence assets to gather information about Russian troop movements, concentrations, and intentions.
Adapt to Asymmetric Warfare: Develop and implement tactics that can effectively counter threats like improvised drones and 3D-printed mines while also leveraging similar capabilities to gain an advantage.
Train and Equip Troops: Ensure that Ukrainian troops are adequately trained and equipped to deal with the evolving threats on the battlefield.
Maintain Situational Awareness: Continuously monitor the situation on the ground and adjust strategies and tactics accordingly.
Prepare for Potential Escalation: Develop contingency plans to address potential escalation scenarios, particularly with the increased use of drone warfare.
Protect Critical Infrastructure: Enhance the protection of key facilities, such as power plants, oil refineries, and transportation hubs.
Address the Humanitarian Situation: Provide humanitarian assistance to affected populations, including food, shelter, medical care, and other essential services.
Plan for Post-Conflict Recovery: Begin planning for post-conflict recovery and reconstruction efforts, including assessing damage, developing rebuilding plans, and securing funding.
Maintain International Solidarity: Continue to work with international partners to maintain solidarity and support for Ukraine.
Seek a Negotiated Solution: While continuing to defend against Russian aggression, explore opportunities for a negotiated solution to the conflict.
Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Utilize intelligence gathered from captured soldiers and other sources to identify and exploit weaknesses in Russian tactics, morale, and logistics.
Develop Counter-Mine Measures: Invest in research and development of advanced mine detection technologies, particularly for mines made with 3D printers.
Assess Impact of EW Deployment: Monitor the impact of newly deployed electronic warfare equipment and gather intelligence on its effectiveness.
Analyze Video and Photographic Evidence: Continue to study video and photographic evidence from the battlefield to gain insights into enemy tactics, equipment, and morale.
Monitor the Situation in Belarus: Given the potential for instability, monitor the situation in Belarus for any potential spillover effects that could impact the conflict in Ukraine.
Counter Russian Information Operations: Address and counter any disinformation or propaganda spread by Russian sources.
Respond to the Attacks in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Address the reported attacks on 13 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Provide support to the affected communities, assess the damage to infrastructure, and strengthen defenses in the area.
Exploit Ukrainian Drone Capabilities: Continue to leverage the success of Ukrainian drone operations for reconnaissance, targeting, and delivering supplies.
Counter Psychological Warfare: Address the leaflets found by Ukrainian intelligence, aimed at demoralizing soldiers. Reinforce morale and counter the enemy's psychological operations.
Utilize Captured Soldier Information: Analyze the information provided by the captured Russian soldier to gain insights into Russian military training, morale, and potential weaknesses.
Address the Situation in the Kursk Region: Given the claimed Ukrainian strike on a Russian command post in Rylsk, Kursk region, verify the information and assess the impact on Russian command and control. Continue efforts to disrupt Russian operations in the region.
Monitor the Situation in Slovakia: Given the reports of the "Gruzinsky National Legion" being involved in anti-government protests in Slovakia, monitor the situation for any potential impact on the conflict or international support for Ukraine.
Prepare for Potential Shifts in US Policy: Given Trump's statements on aid to Ukraine and NATO membership, develop contingency plans for reduced US support and explore alternative sources of military and financial aid. Strengthen ties with European allies who may need to take on a larger role in supporting Ukraine.
Address the Reported Increase in Fuel Prices: Analyze the reported increase in fuel prices in Ukraine and assess its impact on military logistics and the civilian population. Develop strategies to mitigate the effects of rising fuel costs, such as securing alternative supply routes or implementing fuel rationing if necessary.
Investigate Reports of North Korean Involvement: Given the reports of significant North Korean casualties in the Kursk region, investigate the extent of North Korean involvement in the conflict. Assess the potential implications for regional and global security.
Counter Russian Claims of Ukrainian Atrocities: Address the video released by Alex Parker Returns, which attempts to portray Ukrainian soldiers as sharing their last resources with civilians and protecting them from foreign mercenaries. This is likely a propaganda effort to counter previous reports of Ukrainian atrocities in the Kursk region. Provide accurate information and context to refute these claims and maintain international support.
Monitor Russian Military Recruitment and Training: Given reports of poor training and low morale among Russian troops, continue to monitor Russian military recruitment and training practices. This information can be used to assess the effectiveness of Russian forces and anticipate potential weaknesses on the battlefield.
Prepare for Potential Use of Chemical Weapons: Given the reported discovery of mines made with 3D printers and the potential for unconventional warfare, develop contingency plans for the possible use of chemical weapons or other non-conventional weapons by Russian forces.
Address the Issue of Civilian Casualties: Given the reports of civilian casualties in Horlivka and other areas, continue to emphasize the importance of minimizing civilian harm in all military operations. Investigate any incidents of civilian casualties and hold those responsible accountable.
Enhance Cybersecurity: Given the increasing reliance on technology and the potential for cyberattacks, enhance cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure, military communications, and government systems.
Monitor and Respond to Russian Naval Activity: Given the reported presence of Russian warships and missile carriers in the Black Sea, Sea of Azov, and Mediterranean Sea, enhance naval surveillance and intelligence gathering to monitor their movements and intentions. Develop contingency plans for potential missile strikes and coordinate with international partners to address the threat.
Prepare for Evacuation in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Given the reported preparations for evacuation in the southeastern regions of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, develop and implement evacuation plans for civilians in these areas. Coordinate with local authorities and humanitarian organizations to ensure the safe and orderly movement of people away from potential conflict zones. Provide adequate resources and support for evacuees, including temporary housing, food, and medical care.
Counter Russian Air Attacks in Kursk Region: In response to the reported destruction of a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk region by Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers, accompanied by Su-35S, enhance air defense capabilities in the area. Deploy additional anti-aircraft systems and conduct regular air patrols to deter and intercept Russian air attacks. Coordinate with intelligence agencies to gather information on potential targets and movements of Russian aircraft.

These recommendations are based on the latest available information and are intended to provide a comprehensive overview of the current situation and potential future developments. The situation in Ukraine remains highly fluid and requires continuous monitoring and adaptation.

Situation Report