Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 30, 2025

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces making significant advances, particularly in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is under complete Russian control, and the situation in Pokrovsk and Toretsk is increasingly precarious. Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border and have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro. The 68th "Iron" Tank Regiment is reportedly storming Dachne, with half of the settlement cleared of enemy forces, supported by drone operations. In Toretsk, Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with reports of significant North Korean casualties. Drone warfare continues to intensify, with widespread attacks across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defenses have been active, shooting down numerous drones. The US has frozen most foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine, for 90 days, while Sweden announced a substantial military aid package for Ukraine, valued at $1.23 billion. This package includes the procurement of equipment for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, financial support for the purchase of military equipment and ammunition, funding for the production of long-range missiles and drones, provision of resources from the Swedish Armed Forces' depots (including 146 trucks, 16 combat boats, 23 naval combat modules, 1 million 12.7 mm caliber ammunition, 1,500 TOW anti-tank missiles, 200 units of anti-tank weapons, infantry equipment, and chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) defense equipment), establishment and development of a defense research agency, implementation of a training program for schoolchildren, funding of training initiatives such as Interflex for basic training of Ukrainian soldiers, and maintenance of donated Swedish equipment. Lithuania has also announced continued military assistance to Ukraine, including the delivery of advanced portable missile systems. Geopolitical tensions remain high, with Russia accusing the US of discussing an assassination attempt on Putin and a Russian politician claiming Ukraine is a fictional state. The release of hostages in Gaza adds another layer to the complex international situation.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed to be under complete Russian control. Video evidence shows soldiers raising the Russian flag. Russian forces are advancing from Velyka Novosilka towards Dnipropetrovsk.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border. One of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro has been cut off. Ukrainian forces report repelling attacks near multiple locations, with two combat clashes ongoing. Russian airstrikes with guided aerial bombs were reported near Bilytske, Pokrovsk, and Odradne. The enemy is deploying reserves to Pokrovsk, utilizing the city's multi-story buildings for defense. Russian troops are conducting a flanking maneuver, supported by thorough reconnaissance. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in the south of the Donetsk region.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district. Fighting continues in the Sievernyi district. Russian forces have reportedly cleared the Novosjeverny district and the summit of the "Block-9" spoil tip at the refractory plant. Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Russian forces have reportedly made a breakthrough in Chasiv Yar, with the enemy losing a number of strongholds. Russian troops are completing the cleanup of the Severnyi microdistrict and are destroying Ukrainian forces in the Shevchenko microdistrict. Russian units also took positions in the buildings south of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant and advanced in the area of the Dolgoe-II tract south of the Novyi microdistrict. In the northern part of Chasiv Yar, fighting is ongoing for the remaining part of the Novosjeverny microdistrict. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are concentrating forces in the area of Dniprovska Street in the Shevchenko microdistrict, trying to hold the south of the city. After the occupation of the spoil tip, Russian FPV drones are attacking Ukrainian infantry and burning equipment on the road.
Kurakhove: Most of the city has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. Russian forces are reportedly advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk. An unexploded 155mm shell was found in the bell tower of an old church. Active combat is taking place in the Kurakhove-Sukhi Yaly area. A Russian assault group was targeted near Ulakly, with a reported advance of over 2.5 km along the northern bank of the Mokri Yaly River near Zelenivka. The "Warrior DV" Telegram channel released a video showing the destruction of a Ukrainian "Kozak" armored vehicle with troops inside using an FPV drone in this area.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Battles are taking place on the northern outskirts. Ukrainian forces report battles for the "Toretska" mine, with 90-95% of the city under Russian control. A Russian mechanized assault on Ukrainian positions on December 30, 2024, was repelled.
Siversk - Verkhnokamyanske: Active combat operations are taking place in the area of Siversk. Russian forces launched an attack with a motorized rifle unit towards Verkhnokamyanske, resulting in the landing of troops in the central part of the settlement. Russian forces reportedly advanced 1.5 km in the Siversk direction and occupied new positions in Verkhnokamyanske.
Kramatorsk Direction: Russian forces have advanced south of Rozlyv and expanded their control in the Dachne area. In Kramatorsk, 13 people were injured due to a Russian attack, including two children. A person was killed in Ivanopil, and another person was wounded in Chasiv Yar.
Dnipropetrovsk: The "Operation Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" Telegram channel reports that authorities in the Dnipropetrovsk region are preparing for the evacuation of the population due to the approaching front line. The analysis of a video showing a checkpoint at the border between Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk oblasts, with audible explosions, underscores the escalating conflict and the increasing proximity of the fighting to previously secure areas.
Dachne: The 68th regiment is storming Dachne. Half of the settlement has been cleared of enemy forces. UAV crews are hunting down scattered groups of Ukrainian militants, covering the advance of the assault troops, who are already fighting in the center of the settlement.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk.

Kursk Region

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory.
Reports indicate significant North Korean casualties. Ukrainian forces from the 73rd Naval Special Operations Center are conducting operations in the region.
Drone operators of the Special Operations Forces destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers.
Ukrainian forces repelled 8 Russian assaults.
Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area.
Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a border area.
Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions with Su-25 aircraft, launching missiles at low altitudes.
Russian forces are continuing to advance in the region of Sverdlikovo and north of Guevo.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have suffered significant losses, with over 240 troops and two ammunition depots lost in the past 24 hours.
A Russian assault group was targeted in the region during an attempted attack on Ukrainian positions.
A soldier from the Russian Armed Forces, recruited from a penal colony, surrendered to Ukrainian forces on the Zaporizhzhia front after receiving a leaflet promising humane treatment. The soldier, Viktor Ivanovich Sleptsov, reported poor conditions, mistreatment, and corruption within his unit, "Storm V." He described being sent on "meat assaults" with inadequate support and equipment, confirming the effectiveness of Ukrainian psychological operations and highlighting morale issues within the Russian military.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire was reported at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack. The Ukrainian Air Force reports possible anti-aircraft activity against an enemy drone. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of an enemy drone approaching Kharkiv from the northwest. A high-speed target was reported in the region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a high-speed target moving from Sumy Oblast towards Poltava Oblast.
Kupiansk: Under renewed heavy shelling. At least four private houses and power lines were damaged.
Russian Advance: Russian forces are beginning to storm Kupyansk. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in the north of Kharkiv region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Dobropillya in the Donetsk region.

Zaporizhzhia Region

At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Russia attacked the Zaporizhzhia region 401 times overnight.

Other Regions

Drone Activity: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region. All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region. Ukrainian forces shot down 37 drones overnight. New groups of enemy drones have been reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region.
Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate explosions during an ongoing drone attack.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine. Half of Ukraine is under air raid alert due to enemy UAVs in the airspace. An air raid alert has been announced in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Mykolaiv: Two people were killed as a result of a Russian missile strike on a food industry enterprise during the night. The head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration warns of a possible massive shelling of Kherson and the suburbs by Russian forces.
Odesa: Damage to residential buildings and civilian casualties were reported due to a Russian drone attack.
Cherkasy: Overnight drone attack reported, with air defenses active and damage to an energy infrastructure facility in Uman.
Sumy: Eight people have died, and 13 were injured as a result of a drone hitting an apartment building. The number of deaths has increased to nine. Emergency work at the site of the "Shahed" drone attack on Sumy has been completed.
Synelnykivskyi district of the Dnipropetrovsk region, a lyceum was destroyed as a result of a Russian attack.
Chernihiv: A Russian airstrike caused a large fire in Chernihiv. An explosion was reported in the suburbs of Chernihiv, attributed to a Shahed drone.

Military Equipment

Ukrainian forces received 290 new drones.
FPV drones, drone operators destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers, used to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions, successfully destroyed a Ukrainian T-72M1 tank in the Kursk border area, used for 6 minutes of continuous strikes by Ukrainian forces on Russian positions and personnel in the Kursk region.
UAVs, Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region, Ukrainian forces shot down 37 drones overnight, Ukrainian forces shot down 39 drones overnight, used for attack on Kharkiv hit a private sector in the Kholodnohirskyi district, used for attack on residential buildings in Odesa, used for attack on an energy infrastructure facility in Uman, used for attack on an apartment building in Sumy, used for attack on a residential building in Sumy. Ukrainian forces targeted and destroyed a Russian "Orlan" UAV ground control station using a missile strike.
A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region.
Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" used to attack concentrations of militants in Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region with Su-25 aircraft, launching missiles at low altitudes.
Guided aerial bombs used by enemy tactical aviation in the north of Kharkiv region, used by enemy tactical aviation on Dobropillya in the Donetsk region.

Geopolitical Developments

The US has confirmed a 90-day freeze on most foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine.
Sweden has announced a $1.2 billion military aid package for Ukraine. $90 million will be spent on the production of long-range missiles and drones for Ukraine.
A Russian politician, Kelin Georgescu, claims that Ukraine is a fictional state and its division is inevitable.
The State Duma of the Russian Federation directed an appeal to the US Congress in connection with information about Biden and Blinken discussing the organization of an assassination attempt on Putin.
Seven hostages released from Gaza have been transferred to the Israeli army and are making their way to Israeli territory.
The cancellation of a meeting between the Slovak Prime Minister and European Commission representatives due to a malfunction in Belgium does not have direct military implications for the situation in Ukraine.
North Korean soldiers are being taught the work of the Lyube group.
The head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, Oleg Sinegubov, reported on the situation in Sumy following a Russian drone attack, confirming nine deaths and 13 injuries, including a child. He emphasized the need for international response to Russian aggression.
President Zelensky had a long conversation with Budanov about the tasks, prospects, and various scenarios, as well as a report from Commander-in-Chief Alexander Syrsky.
The National Association of Defense Industry of Ukraine stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces risk being late by at least two months in receiving necessary weapons due to the conflict between the Ministry of Defense and the Defense Procurement Agency.
The temporarily removed director of the agency, Marina Bezrukova, reported that the conflict led to the cancellation of a number of negotiations with international arms suppliers.

Updated Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and volatile. The capture of Velyka Novosilka by Russian forces represents a significant setback for Ukraine. The intense fighting around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove indicates a continued Russian offensive push in the Donetsk region, with Ukrainian defenses under considerable strain. The reported downing of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Pokrovskoe (Krasnoarmeysk) suggests that Ukrainian forces are still attempting to utilize drone warfare despite Russian advances. The increase in military pensions in Russia, as reported by "Dnevnik Desantnika," could be aimed at boosting morale and incentivizing continued service amidst the ongoing conflict. The reported occupation of new territories near Pokrovsk and the approach to the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway by Russian forces, if confirmed, would represent a significant advance and further complicate the situation for Ukrainian forces in the region. The reported breakthrough of Russian forces into the center of Dachne and their advance towards Dnipropetrovsk further underscore the intensity of the fighting in the Donetsk region. The new information about the 68th regiment storming Dachne and clearing half of the settlement, supported by UAV crews, confirms the severity of the situation and the continued Russian advance in this area. The reported breakthrough of the Russian army in Chasiv Yar and the loss of a number of strongholds by the Ukrainian forces further exacerbate the situation for Ukraine in the Donetsk region. The ongoing fighting for the remaining part of the Novosjeverny microdistrict and the Ukrainian forces' efforts to hold the south of the city highlight the critical nature of the battle for Chasiv Yar.

The situation in the Kursk region remains tense, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive stalled and Russian forces making gains. The reported involvement of North Korean troops adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The extensive drone activity across Ukraine, including the reported explosion near Chernihiv, highlights the persistent threat posed by Russian drones.

The lifting of the US aid freeze is a positive development for Ukraine, potentially providing much-needed resources to support its military efforts. However, the initial freeze and the ongoing political debates surrounding aid to Ukraine underscore the uncertainties and potential challenges in securing long-term support. The confusion created by the conflicting reports from US officials regarding the status of the aid freeze further complicates the situation. The meeting of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiga with European counterparts in Paris will be crucial in ensuring continued European support. The new report that the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is expanding its PR and advertising efforts, seeking a project manager with experience in communications and social media management, suggests an attempt to improve Ukraine's image and potentially attract more foreign support, including mercenaries.

The internal situation in Russia, particularly the reported personnel shortages in the 51st Army and the criticisms voiced by Voenkor Kotenok, suggests potential vulnerabilities within the Russian military. The reported increase in military pensions could be an attempt to address morale issues and incentivize continued service. The reported termination of the lease agreement for the port of Tartus by Syria and the declaration of the new Syrian authorities indicate a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the region, potentially impacting Russia's influence and military presence in Syria.

The information warfare dimension remains highly active, with both sides attempting to shape the narrative and influence public opinion. The discrepancies between official reports and on-the-ground accounts, as well as the use of propaganda videos and disinformation, underscore the challenges in obtaining accurate information. The reported Japanese involvement in Central Asia, as highlighted by "Rybar," suggests a broader geopolitical competition for influence in the region, potentially impacting the dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine. The new information about North Korean soldiers being taught the work of the Lyube group indicates a cultural exchange and potential ideological influence. The reported conversation between President Zelensky and Budanov, as well as the report from Commander-in-Chief Syrsky, suggests that Ukraine is actively assessing the situation and planning its next moves. The conflict between the Ministry of Defense and the Defense Procurement Agency, as reported by the National Association of Defense Industry of Ukraine, is a significant development that could negatively impact Ukraine's ability to procure necessary weapons in a timely manner. The potential delay of at least two months in receiving necessary weapons is a serious concern.

The new information about the oil flows through the Russian port of Ust-Luga stopping after a Ukrainian drone attack, as reported by Bloomberg and confirmed by "Оперативний ЗСУ", is a significant development. The reported damage to the Baltic pipeline system-2, which feeds Ust-Luga, if confirmed, could have a major impact on the global oil market and create a significant new threat to supplies. The fact that the port handled about 20% of Russia's total seaborne oil flows last year underscores its importance. This development could potentially lead to a further escalation of the conflict and increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as impacting the global energy market.

Situation Report