Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 30, 2025, 10:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure and achieving significant gains, especially in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is confirmed under complete Russian control. Intense fighting continues around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, with Russian troops making incremental advances. Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk and Toretsk are under immense strain, with a potential collapse reported in Toretsk. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, and Russian forces are reportedly regaining territory. Drone warfare remains a defining feature, with both sides employing UAVs extensively. Ukrainian forces have reportedly destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers, repelled 8 Russian assaults in the Kursk region, and are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.

The US has confirmed a 90-day freeze on most foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine. The Trump administration has resumed grants for some previously suspended foreign aid programs. The administration of US President Joe Biden overturned a decision by Donald Trump to suspend federal grants and financial aid programs for 90 days. Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region with Su-25 aircraft. A Russian soldier reportedly destroyed a group of 8 Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers with mines in the Kharkiv region.

A plane crash in Washington resulted in the deaths of Russian figure skaters and other Russian citizens. The crash was reportedly caused by a collision with a US Army Black Hawk helicopter.

A Ukrainian drone attack on Sumy resulted in four deaths and nine injuries, including a child.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed under complete Russian control. The enemy advanced near Novoandriivka, Novovasylivka, Dachne, Rozlyv, Yantarne, and Andriivka. The enemy's advance in Chasiv Yar is being clarified. Video evidence shows soldiers of the 40th Guards Marine Brigade raising the Russian flag.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro. Intense fighting is reported near Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, Udachne, and Baranivka.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district. Fighting continues in the Sievernyi district. A video from the "Dva Mayora" Telegram channel depicts the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar position in this area. Russian forces have reportedly cleared the Novosjeverny district and the summit of the "Block-9" spoil tip at the refractory plant in Chasovoy Yar. These were the key remaining strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this area.
Kurakhove: Most of the city has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. Russian forces are reportedly advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Battles are taking place on the northern outskirts. Ukrainian forces report battles for the "Toretska" mine, with 90-95% of the city under Russian control. WarGonzo reports that Toretsk will soon be renamed Dzerzhinsk.
Siversk - Verkhnokamyanske: Active combat operations are taking place in the area of Siversk. Russian forces launched an attack with a motorized rifle unit towards Verkhnokamyanske, resulting in the landing of troops in the central part of the settlement. Ukrainian positions were assaulted, and a residential area was cleared by a Russian assault group. Russian forces reportedly advanced 1.5 km in the Siversk direction and occupied new positions in Verkhnokamyanske.
Other Locations: Fighting continues in Zverevo. Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces. Battles are ongoing near Uspenivka, with Russian forces advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian forces, supported by artillery and FPV drones, destroyed a Ukrainian BMP-2. Operators of the 40th Marine Brigade's UAV group destroyed an enemy pickup truck in the South Donetsk direction. A Russian tank withstood a Ukrainian ATGM attack during the liberation of Novoelizavetovka.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk.
In the direction of Hrekivka, Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.

Kursk Region

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory.
Reports indicate significant North Korean casualties.
Russian forces report the capture of Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya.
Drone operators of the Special Operations Forces destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers.
Ukrainian forces repelled 8 Russian assaults in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the Kursk region for 100 days.
A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area.
Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a border area.
Nikolaevo-Daryino has been cleared. Heavy fighting in the eastern part of the settlement.
Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov inspected the Yug Group of Forces.
Ukrainian forces from the 73rd Naval Special Operations Center are conducting operations in the region.
A video from the "Archangel of Special Forces" Telegram channel shows the targeting of a vehicle with a soldier in this region.
Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region with Su-25 aircraft, launching missiles at low altitudes.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire was reported at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region. One drone is reported to be south of Chuhuiv. A drone attack on Kharkiv hit a private sector in the Kholodnohirskyi district, damaging the glazing of a private house.
Kupiansk: Under renewed heavy shelling. Enemy is intensely shelling Kupyansk with KABs, according to OVA. At least four private houses and power lines were damaged. An 86-year-old woman was injured in Kupiansk due to Russian shelling.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly taken Dvurichna and are advancing towards Kupyansk.

Zaporizhzhia Region

At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Russia attacked the Zaporizhzhia region 401 times overnight.
Russian forces reportedly destroyed a group of foreign mercenaries, including a veteran of the Austrian special forces, near Orikhiv.
An air alert has been declared.

Other Regions

Drone Activity: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region. All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region. Ukrainian forces shot down 37 drones overnight, and 39 drones were "lost," according to the Ukrainian Air Force.
Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate explosions during an ongoing drone attack.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine.
Mykolaiv: Two people were killed as a result of a Russian missile strike on a food industry enterprise during the night.
Odesa: Damage to residential buildings and civilian casualties were reported due to a Russian drone attack. Russian drones attacked the Odesa oblast leading to damage in two private houses, a warehouse, cars, and a hospital. An explosion occurred at night in the city of Izmail, Odesa region, in southern Ukraine. A fire broke out after the explosion.
Cherkasy: Overnight drone attack reported, with air defenses active and damage to an energy infrastructure facility in Uman.
Belgorod: A private house in the village of Razumnoye was attacked by a drone, resulting in the deaths of a woman and a two-year-old child.
Overnight, Russian air defense systems reportedly intercepted 57 out of 104 attacking drones across multiple regions.
Lipetsk Oblast in Russia has declared an air danger regime.
Sumy: Four people have died and nine were injured as a result of a drone hitting an apartment building. Rescuers recovered the bodies of a man and a woman from the rubble in an apartment building. Explosions occurred during the night in the city of Sumy.
Synelnykivskyi district of the Dnipropetrovsk region, a lyceum was destroyed as a result of a Russian attack.
According to NASA FIRMS data, a powerful fire is taking place in the area of the Novozybkov pumping station after a night raid by UAVs.
In the Bryansk region, drones attacked the Novozybkov oil pumping station of the Druzhba pipeline.

Military Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are achieving significant advances in the Donetsk region. The capture of Velyka Novosilka is a major strategic and symbolic victory for Russian forces. Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk and Toretsk are under immense pressure.

Drone warfare continues to be a defining feature of the conflict. Ukrainian forces are employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks on Russian positions. The involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The destruction of the M1A1SA "Abrams" tank is a significant event.

The increased drone activity across multiple regions suggests a potential escalation in aerial warfare. The attacks on civilian infrastructure indicate a deliberate strategy to disrupt Ukrainian services and impact civilian morale. Reports of Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russia, targeting oil refineries in Ryazan and Kazan, demonstrate Ukraine's growing long-range strike capabilities.

The Ukrainian military is facing significant challenges in maintaining defensive positions and countering Russian advances.

Strategic Implications

The continued Russian advances and the intensity of the fighting suggest that the conflict may be entering a new phase, with a potential shift in momentum in favor of Russian forces.

The international community's response to the evolving situation will be crucial. Continued military and financial aid to Ukraine will be essential in bolstering Ukrainian defenses. The confirmation of a 90-day freeze on US foreign aid has significant implications. The Ukrainian government's consultations with the US to restore funding are crucial. The resumption of previously suspended foreign aid programs by the Trump administration and the overturning of the decision to suspend aid programs by the Biden administration adds further complexity.

The potential involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region could further complicate the geopolitical landscape. The ongoing attacks on civilian infrastructure indicate a deliberate strategy by Russian forces to disrupt Ukrainian services.

The extensive use of drones by both sides highlights the importance of electronic warfare capabilities in modern conflict.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and volatile. Russian forces continue to make significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove. The capture of Velyka Novosilka is a major strategic and symbolic victory for Russian forces. Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk and Toretsk are under immense pressure, with reports indicating a potential collapse in Toretsk. The WarGonzo channel claims that Toretsk will soon be renamed Dzerzhinsk, indicating a potential capture by Russian forces.

Drone warfare remains a defining feature of the conflict, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian forces are actively using drones to target Russian assets and infrastructure, while Russian forces are employing drones for reconnaissance and strikes. The new reports of enemy drones approaching Kharkiv from the northeast and the continued drone attacks on Sumy underscore the persistent threat posed by aerial warfare. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs in the Sumy region, indicating an escalation in Russian air attacks.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and inflicting heavy casualties. Reports indicate the involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, adding another layer of complexity to the conflict.

The US has confirmed a 90-day freeze on most foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine, which has significant implications for Ukraine's ability to sustain its war effort. However, the Biden administration has overturned Trump's decision to suspend federal grants and financial aid programs, potentially providing some relief.

The new reports of a Russian tank withstanding a Ukrainian ATGM attack near Novoelizavetovka and active combat operations near Kupyansk and Orlyanskoye suggest continued intense fighting in these areas. The reported destruction of a lyceum and other civilian infrastructure in the Synelnykivskyi district of the Dnipropetrovsk region highlights the ongoing impact of the conflict on civilian populations.

Situation Report