Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 30, 2025, 07:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure and achieving significant gains, especially in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is confirmed under complete Russian control. Intense fighting continues around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, with Russian troops making incremental advances. Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk and Toretsk are under immense strain, with a potential collapse reported in Toretsk. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, and Russian forces are reportedly regaining territory. Drone warfare remains a defining feature, with both sides employing UAVs extensively. Ukrainian forces have reportedly destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers, repelled 7 Russian assaults in the area, and are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.

The US has confirmed a 90-day freeze on most foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine. The Trump administration has resumed grants for some previously suspended foreign aid programs. The administration of US President Joe Biden overturned a decision by Donald Trump to suspend federal grants and financial aid programs for 90 days.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed under complete Russian control. The enemy advanced near Novoandriivka, Novovasylivka, Dachne, Rozlyv, Yantarne, and Andriivka. The enemy's advance in Chasiv Yar is being clarified. Video evidence shows soldiers of the 40th Guards Marine Brigade raising the Russian flag.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro. Intense fighting is reported near Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, Udachne, and Baranivka.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district. Fighting continues in the Sievernyi district.
Kurakhove: Most of the city has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. Russian forces are reportedly advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Battles are taking place on the northern outskirts. Ukrainian forces report battles for the "Toretska" mine, with 90-95% of the city under Russian control.
Other Locations: Fighting continues in Zverevo. Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces. Battles are ongoing near Uspenivka, with Russian forces advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian forces, supported by artillery and FPV drones, destroyed a Ukrainian BMP-2. Operators of the 40th Marine Brigade's UAV group destroyed an enemy pickup truck in the South Donetsk direction.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk.

Kursk Region

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory.
Reports indicate significant North Korean casualties.
Russian forces report the capture of Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya.
Drone operators of the Special Operations Forces destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers.
Ukrainian forces repelled 8 Russian assaults in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the Kursk region for 100 days.
A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area.
Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a border area.
Nikolaevo-Daryino has been cleared. Heavy fighting in the eastern part of the settlement.
Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov inspected the Yug Group of Forces.
Ukrainian forces from the 73rd Naval Special Operations Center are conducting operations in the region.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire was reported at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack.
Kupiansk: Under renewed heavy shelling.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly taken Dvurichna and are advancing towards Kupyansk.

Zaporizhzhia Region

At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Russia attacked the Zaporizhzhia region 401 times overnight.
Russian forces reportedly destroyed a group of foreign mercenaries, including a veteran of the Austrian special forces, near Orikhiv.

Other Regions

Drone Activity: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region. All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region.
Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate explosions during an ongoing drone attack.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine.
Mykolaiv: Two people were killed as a result of a Russian missile strike on a food industry enterprise during the night.
Odesa: Damage to residential buildings and civilian casualties were reported due to a Russian drone attack.
Cherkasy: Overnight drone attack reported, with air defenses active and damage to an energy infrastructure facility in Uman.
Belgorod: A private house in the village of Razumnoye was attacked by a drone, resulting in the deaths of a woman and a two-year-old child.
Overnight, Russian air defense systems reportedly intercepted 57 out of 104 attacking drones across multiple regions.
Lipetsk Oblast in Russia has declared an air danger regime.
Sumy: Four people have died and nine were injured as a result of a drone hitting an apartment building. Rescuers recovered the bodies of a man and a woman from the rubble in an apartment building.
Synelnykivskyi district of the Dnipropetrovsk region, a lyceum was destroyed as a result of a Russian attack.
According to NASA FIRMS data, a powerful fire is taking place in the area of the Novozybkov pumping station after a night raid by UAVs.

Military Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are achieving significant advances in the Donetsk region. The capture of Velyka Novosilka is a major strategic and symbolic victory for Russian forces. Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk and Toretsk are under immense pressure.

Drone warfare continues to be a defining feature of the conflict. Ukrainian forces are employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks on Russian positions. The involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The destruction of the M1A1SA "Abrams" tank is a significant event.

The increased drone activity across multiple regions suggests a potential escalation in aerial warfare. The attacks on civilian infrastructure indicate a deliberate strategy to disrupt Ukrainian services and impact civilian morale. Reports of Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russia, targeting oil refineries in Ryazan and Kazan, demonstrate Ukraine's growing long-range strike capabilities.

The Ukrainian military is facing significant challenges in maintaining defensive positions and countering Russian advances.

Strategic Implications

The continued Russian advances and the intensity of the fighting suggest that the conflict may be entering a new phase, with a potential shift in momentum in favor of Russian forces.

The international community's response to the evolving situation will be crucial. Continued military and financial aid to Ukraine will be essential in bolstering Ukrainian defenses. The confirmation of a 90-day freeze on US foreign aid has significant implications. The Ukrainian government's consultations with the US to restore funding are crucial. The resumption of previously suspended foreign aid programs by the Trump administration and the overturning of the decision to suspend aid programs by the Biden administration adds further complexity.

The potential involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region could further complicate the geopolitical landscape. The ongoing attacks on civilian infrastructure indicate a deliberate strategy by Russian forces to disrupt Ukrainian services.

The extensive use of drones by both sides highlights the importance of electronic warfare capabilities in modern conflict.

New Developments and Updated Situation

Drone Activity: Lipetsk Oblast in Russia has declared an air danger regime. Drone operators of the Special Operations Forces destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces repelled 8 Russian assaults in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
US Aid Freeze: Trump's confirmation that he has frozen US foreign aid has significant implications for Ukraine. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiga may meet with US representatives on February 12 to discuss restoring funding. The Trump administration has resumed grants for some previously suspended foreign aid programs. The administration of US President Joe Biden overturned a decision by Donald Trump to suspend federal grants and financial aid programs for 90 days.
Putin's Statements on Negotiations: Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the conflict in Ukraine could end within 1.5-2 months if Ukraine runs out of "sponsor money and ammo."
Allegations of Corruption: Reports indicate that contractors in the Kursk region have allegedly embezzled over 3 billion rubles allocated for the construction of fortifications. A top official in the Kyiv City State Administration is accused of faking a disability to avoid military service.
Targeting of Foreign Mercenaries: Russian forces reportedly destroyed a group of foreign mercenaries, including a veteran of the Austrian special forces, near Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Zelensky's Address: President Zelensky honored the memory of the Heroes of Kruty and Ukrainian soldiers who have died defending the country.
Military Aid from Croatia: Croatia announced the preparation of the 12th package of military-technical assistance for Ukraine.
Drone Operator Recruitment: The Ukrainian Navy's Recruitment Center and the 429th separate regiment of unmanned systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are recruiting.
Casualties in Belgorod: A drone attack in Belgorod resulted in the deaths of a woman and a two-year-old child.
Draft Dodgers in Odesa: Two organizers of a scheme to help draft dodgers leave Ukraine have been exposed in Odesa.
Coca-Cola Recall in Europe: Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Belgium is recalling products due to elevated chlorate levels.
Russian Defense Ministry Report: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported on repelling a Ukrainian attempt to invade Russian territory in the Kursk region, claiming significant Ukrainian losses.
Italian Journalist Granted Russian Citizenship: Andrea Lucidi, a military correspondent residing in Russia since 2022, has been granted Russian citizenship.
Arrest of Poroshenko's Son's Property: All property of Oleksiy Poroshenko, son of former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, has been arrested for ignoring draft notices.
Increased Fine for Non-Payment of Parking in Moscow: The fine for legal entities for non-payment of city parking in Moscow has been increased from 5,000 to 50,000 rubles.
Ka-52M helicopters for airstrikes: Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters for airstrikes.
Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War (POWs) meeting: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held an online meeting with the families of the soldiers of the reactive artillery division of the 36th separate marine brigade named after Rear Admiral Mykhailo Bilinsky.
Our warriors-tigers in the area of Sokol, Donetsk region, burned an enemy M1A1SA "Abrams" tank of American production. The tank had protection not only with the installation of the basic ARAT dynamic protection kit but was also reinforced with elements of the 4C20 "Contact" complex.
FSB officers detained a resident of Donetsk on suspicion of espionage for Ukraine. A criminal case has been opened.
A number of EU countries have proposed including the resumption of Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe in the text of a future agreement on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are sending DRGs to the Russian-liberated territory of the Kherson region to reduce the local population, according to Governor Vladimir Saldo.
Meta will pay Trump $25 million in a lawsuit over the blocking of his accounts.
A passenger plane crashed in Washington. The plane collided with a helicopter.
The European Parliament believes that Greenland should consider joining the EU to protect against Trump's encroachments.
A businessman who was going to build a tourist base near Sheltozero in Karelia had his state subsidy revoked.
The German Bundestag introduced permanent border control.
Senator Marshall suggested that 60 residents of Kansas were killed in a plane crash in Washington.
The map was updated.

The new information further emphasizes the critical situation for Ukrainian forces, particularly in the Donetsk region, and highlights the increasing role of drone warfare and the potential for further escalation. The geopolitical implications of the US aid freeze and the potential involvement of North Korean troops add further complexity to the conflict. The continued attacks on civilian infrastructure underscore the devastating human cost of the war.

Situation Report