Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 30, 2025, 04:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point of intense fighting, with significant developments around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The encirclement and capture of Velyka Novosilka are major strategic and symbolic victories for Russian forces, opening avenues for further advances towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The loss of Velyka Novosilka has been confirmed by Ukrainian sources. Intense fighting continues around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, with Russian troops advancing and consolidating their positions.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian military assets and infrastructure. A massive drone attack targeted central Russia and the south, with over 100 drones reportedly involved. While most were intercepted, some hit their targets, including an oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod. This attack has been confirmed by Ukrainian sources, with at least four drones hitting the Kstovo oil refinery, causing a large-scale fire. The Ryazan oil refinery has suspended operations following a Ukrainian drone attack. The refinery processes nearly 5% of Russia's oil. The attack caused fires and damaged equipment.

Russian forces are improving their tactical position with an advance near Terniv in the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and inflicting heavy losses. Russian forces have approached the northern outskirts of Kupiansk, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are deploying reinforcements. There are reports of Russian forces taking Ukrainian forces into an "operational cauldron" in Nova Kruhliakivka.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces have completed the encirclement and captured the city, signifying a major symbolic victory and a significant strategic loss for Ukraine.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance. The most intense fighting is near Yelyzavetivka and Vodyane Druhe.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces continue to advance, controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district. Russian units have reportedly taken a position on top of a spoil tip on the western outskirts of the Blok-9 mine. The bulk of the Severnyi district in Chasiv Yar is under Russian military control, according to a commander of a stormtrooper group of the "Española" brigade.
Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces. Heavy fighting is reported in the eastern part of Andriivka.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Battles are taking place in the northern part of the city in the buildings south of the Fomikha mine.
Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk.
Other Locations: Fighting continues in Zverevo. Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces. Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka. Russian forces report further advances near Dachne, Andriivka, Slov'yanka, and Novoandriivka. Russian forces, with an advance near Terniv, have improved their tactical position.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka.
Russian forces have approached the northern outskirts of Kupiansk, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are deploying reinforcements.
A video from a reconnaissance drone showed the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV control point and the detonation of ammunition near Novolyubovka.

Kursk Region

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units. Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolske. Russian forces report the capture of several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya.
There are fierce battles in Sverdlikovo and the surrounding forest belts.
There is an advance in the north of the Sudzhansky district.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are transferring all possible reserves to the Sudzhansky district, including Ukrainian border guards from the 94th border detachment of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, who had previously been catching draft dodgers along the Tisza River on the western borders of Ukraine.
The landing attempt of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on two armored personnel carriers was thwarted in Makhnovka. The vehicles were destroyed along with the personnel.
Russian forces are utilizing drones to target and destroy Ukrainian equipment in the region. A French-made VAB armored personnel carrier, a self-propelled artillery unit, and other equipment were reportedly hit.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast. Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts.
Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling. Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack near Vovchansk.

Zaporizhzhia Region

An air raid alert has been declared in the region.
At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region.

Other Regions

Drone Activity: Air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine. Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds".
- Chernihiv and Sumy: Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy drones moving towards Chernihiv and Sumy from the northeast.
- Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: One drone is flying between Ivano-Frankivsk and Kolomyia.
- Ternopil Oblast: Two drones have moved from Khmelnytskyi Oblast to the south of Ternopil Oblast.
- Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast.
- Kirovohrad Oblast: Three drones are in Pervomaisk district. Another drone is in the eastern part of the region, moving west.
- Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is circling east of Smila. Two drones are north of Uman, moving west. A drone is reported north of Kamyanske, moving north. Another drone is reported in the north of the region, moving west.
- Chernihiv Oblast: Two drones are in the Nizhyn area. One drone is moving towards Chernihiv from the northeast. Other drones are reported in the west and east of the region, moving west.
- Kyiv Oblast: Drones are reported on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts. Debris from a downed drone fell near a metro station in Kyiv, damaging a building.
- Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are reported in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast.
- Vinnytsia Oblast: Drones are reported in the northeast and northwest of Vinnytsia Oblast.
- Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Drones are reported in the west of Khmelnytskyi Oblast. One drone is moving north-west.
- Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Drones are reported in the center of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.
- Mykolaiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the northwest of Mykolaiv Oblast. A drone was detected in the region, changing direction towards the region.
- Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the west and southwest of Chernihiv Oblast. A drone is in the south of Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast.
- Poltava Oblast: A drone is reported in the north, constantly changing course.
Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate that explosions were heard in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast during an ongoing drone attack.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine. The alert in Kyiv has now been lifted.
Massive Drone Attack: Over 100 drones attacked central Russia and the south overnight. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that 104 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed. Drones attacked the fourth-largest oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod. Ukrainian sources confirm that at least four drones hit the Kstovo oil refinery, causing a large-scale fire.
Sumy: As a result of a drone attack on the Ukrainian city of Sumy at least one person was killed, and at least seven were injured. The number of injured has now risen to nine, with reports indicating that nine apartments and 12 balconies were destroyed in a 10-story residential building. Four people, including one child, were rescued, and 118 people were evacuated.
Berdyansk was attacked by guided UAVs. At least three drones were shot down on approach to the city.
Fires resulting from the drone attack on Berdyansk have been extinguished.
Several UAVs were shot down over Crimea last night.

Internal Russian Military Situation

Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel: Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure.

Political/Economic Situation

US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has issued an order to halt most foreign aid for 90 days, including aid to Ukraine.
Ukrainian Military Re-evaluation Deadline Extended: The deadline for re-evaluation of Ukrainian citizens with limited military fitness will be extended.
Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus.
Zelensky's Statement on Drone Components: President Zelensky stated that the Shahed drones used in recent attacks rely on foreign components.
Europe's Fear of Exclusion from Peace Talks: European officials are concerned that the EU and Ukraine might be excluded from peace negotiations.
EU Sanctions on Russian Citizens: The EU has imposed sanctions on three Russian citizens allegedly responsible for cyberattacks.
Poland to Invite Trump to Three Seas Summit: Poland plans to invite former US President Donald Trump to the Three Seas Initiative summit.
Ukraine's Defense Industry Funding: The Ukrainian defense industry has secured over $1.5 billion in foreign partner funding in 2024.
Rising Inflation and Economic Difficulties in Russia: Despite reported economic growth, Russia is facing increasing inflation, rising prices, and labor shortages.
Putin's Statement on Peace Negotiations: Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that he is not ready to sign a peace treaty with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he considers "illegitimate." He also claimed that the conflict in Ukraine could end within 1.5-2 months if Ukraine runs out of "sponsor money and ammo."
German Chancellor Scholz Criticizes Elon Musk: Scholz criticized Musk for supporting right-wing parties in Europe, calling it "disgusting."
EU Sanctions: The new EU anti-Russian sanctions package will not include a full ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports.
A German Bundestag member has criticized EU sanctions against Russia as "a shot in the foot," noting that US nuclear power plants continue to rely on Russian uranium.
Dutch bank ING has left the Russian market by selling its assets to a Russian investor, Global Development.

Information Warfare

DeepState Analysis: The DeepState Telegram channel shared an image claiming to show Russian forces in the central part of Velyka Novosilka. They also report that Russian forces have advanced near several settlements.
Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel: Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure. Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair.
Automated Bot Activity: Evidence suggests the use of automated bots on Telegram channels to post contextually relevant but inappropriate comments.
Ukrainian and Russian Media Reports: Reports from both Ukrainian and Russian media outlets highlight the discrepancies between official statements and the actual situation on the ground.
Propaganda Videos: Videos showing the raising of the Russian flag in Velyka Novosilka and interviews with captured Ukrainian soldiers are being used for propaganda purposes by Russian sources.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that 104 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed overnight.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on the presence of Russian warships and missile carriers in the Black Sea, Sea of Azov, and Mediterranean Sea.
90% of Ukrainian media are reportedly funded by grants, highlighting their dependence on foreign funding and potential vulnerability to external influence.
"Good day, my wife wrote music and lyrics for the soldiers in support, add it to the wall, maybe someone will like it)" - a message accompanying a video with a song about the war.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances on multiple fronts, particularly in the Donetsk region, with the confirmed capture of Velyka Novosilka representing a major setback for Ukraine. Ukrainian sources have confirmed the loss of Velyka Novosilka. The escalating drone warfare, with increased activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks inside Russia, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. There are reports of Russian forces taking Ukrainian forces into an "operational cauldron" in Nova Kruhliakivka.

Putin's recent statement on peace negotiations and his refusal to recognize Zelensky as the legitimate leader of Ukraine add a new layer of complexity to the political situation. The massive drone attack on Russia, with over 100 drones targeting various regions, marks a significant escalation in the conflict. Russian forces are improving their tactical position with an advance near Terniv in the Donetsk region.

In the US, a plane collided with a helicopter near Reagan National Airport, resulting in casualties and a search and rescue operation on the Potomac River. Ministers from 12 EU countries have urged the European Commission to protect upcoming European elections from foreign interference. Additionally, it was reported that a passenger plane and a Blackhawk military helicopter collided in Washington D.C. near Reagan Airport.

Situation Report