Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 30, 2025, 02:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region continues to be the focal point of intense fighting, with significant developments around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The encirclement and capture of Velyka Novosilka are major strategic and symbolic victories for Russian forces, opening avenues for further advances towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The loss of Velyka Novosilka has been confirmed by Ukrainian sources, highlighting the severity of the situation. Intense fighting continues around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, with Russian troops advancing and consolidating their positions. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory, including the confirmed liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino, and inflicting heavy losses. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions, including a new attack on Odesa, an overnight attack on Cherkasy Oblast causing damage and requiring the deployment of air defense, as well as a confirmed drone attack on Kyiv that has now been repelled. There are new reports of drones approaching Izmail, Bucha, and Vasylkiv, with one drone having flown past Boryspil towards Kyiv.

Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian military assets and infrastructure, as demonstrated by new video evidence of coordinated drone strikes on enemy positions, vehicles, and personnel, while Russian forces continue to utilize drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes, as well as employing MLRS systems for area bombardment, as shown in the latest footage. A massive drone attack targeted central Russia and the south, with over 100 drones reportedly involved. While most were intercepted, some hit their targets, including an oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod. This attack has been confirmed by Ukrainian sources, with at least two drones hitting the Kstovo oil refinery, also known as "Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez," causing a large-scale fire. This is the second time this facility has been targeted since March 2024. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted 126 Ukrainian drones overnight. Russian forces are improving their tactical position with an advance near Terniv in the Donetsk region, destroying three strongholds, a Western artillery installation, and several Ukrainian vehicles. A new drone attack threat has been declared in the Samara region of Russia.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:
  • Russian forces have completed the encirclement and captured the city, signifying a major symbolic victory and a significant strategic loss for Ukraine. Ukrainian sources have confirmed the loss of the settlement.
  • Russian forces control over 90% of Velyka Novosilka east of the Kashlahach River.
  • Ukrainian forces are using "Vampire" and "Baba Yaga" drones to try to stop the Russian advance.
  • Russian forces are advancing from Velyka Novosilka towards Dnipropetrovsk.
  • The capture of Velyka Novosilka opens up opportunities for Russian forces to advance towards Bohatyr and the remaining part of the Donetsk People's Republic south of the Vovcha River.
• Pokrovsk:
  • Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance.
  • The most intense fighting is near Yelyzavetivka and Vodyane Druhe.
  • Russian forces are reportedly advancing in the Pokrovsk direction, with fighting intensifying near Udachne.
  • Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are estimated to be over 94,000 killed.
  • Russian forces are advancing towards Novohrodivka and expanding control along the railway line towards Pokrovsk.
  • With heavy fighting, Russian forces are moving in the Pokrovsk area and have achieved tactical successes.
• Chasiv Yar:
  • Russian forces continue to advance, controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district.
  • Fighting continues in the Sievernyi district.
  • Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts of the city from the north side of the railway.
  • There are reports of battles on the southwestern outskirts of the city.
  • Russian forces are advancing towards Chasiv Yar from the southwest.
  • Russian airborne forces, using BM-21 "Grad" and ZRK "Strela-10", targeted Ukrainian positions and a "Valkyrie" drone near Chasiv Yar and Artemivsk.
  • There have been no significant changes in the last 24 hours, but the initiative remains with the Russian forces, who continue the assault on Chasiv Yar.
• Kurakhove:
  • Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces.
  • Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories.
  • Heavy fighting is reported in the eastern part of Andriivka, with Russian forces advancing from Shevchenko and Petropavlivka. The capture of Andriivka is strategically important for the defense of Ukrainian forces.
  • To the west of Kurakhove, Russian troops are attempting to advance in the Dachne and Andriivka areas.
• Toretsk:
  • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
  • Intense fighting is ongoing on the outskirts of Toretsk.
  • Russian forces are advancing towards Toretsk, with ongoing battles on its outskirts.
  • The Ukrainian Armed Forces are holding on to the last defense hubs in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk).
• Kramatorsk:
  • A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk.
• Other Locations:
  • Fighting continues in Zverevo. Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces. Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces report further advances near Dachne, Andriivka, Slov'yanka, and Novoandriivka.
  • Russian forces, with an advance near Terniv, have improved their tactical position and destroyed three strongholds, a Western artillery installation, and several Ukrainian vehicles.
  • Russian troops are trying to encircle Dachne to the west of Kurakhove.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka.
• In the direction of Hrekivka, Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.
• Russian forces are forming an "operational cauldron" around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
• Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka.

Kursk Region

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units.
• Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolske.
• Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
• Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering.
• Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces have suffered significant losses, amounting to over 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, and numerous other military vehicles and equipment.
• Russian forces report the capture of several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya. The liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino has been confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
• Russian forces are advancing in the Kursk region, with ongoing battles near Sverdlykove and in nearby forested areas.
• Ukrainian forces have reportedly deployed over 100 paratroopers to the Sudzhansky district for a counterattack near Nikolsky.
• A Russian reconnaissance drone detected a group of Ukrainian militants in the Kursk border area, which was subsequently destroyed by Russian mortar fire.
• The Russian Armed Forces continue to press the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense in several areas. The Ukrainians are attempting to transfer additional reserves to this area.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks:
  • One drone is approaching Balakliia.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast.
  • Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack. Overnight, a drone attack targeted a civilian enterprise in the Novobavarskyi district, causing a large fire, damage to a gas pipe and 5 vehicles. Two civilians suffered acute stress reactions. Two drones fell in the Kyivskyi district.
  • Two drones were detected in the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv, with no reported casualties.
  • In the Rohanska community, a drone attack destroyed a private house and garage, injuring 2 people.
  • In Shestakove, a drone attack caused a fire in a destroyed private house, with no reported casualties.
• Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling.
• Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack near Vovchansk.
• Ukrainian forces have reportedly transferred a sabotage and reconnaissance group to Belopolye (Sumy Oblast) on armored fighting vehicles, which was detected and destroyed by Russian drone operators.
• Russian forces have reportedly liberated Dvorichna.

Other Regions

• Drone Activity:
  • Air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine.
  • Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds".
  • Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region. Three drones were shot down in Sumy region overnight.
  • All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region.
  • Cherkasy: The city is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast. Cherkasy Oblast was attacked overnight, with air defenses active. A headquarters for coordinating emergency response has been established in the Umansky district. There is reported damage in the area.
  • New groups of enemy drones have been reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region.
  • Dnipropetrovsk: The city of Dnipro is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast. A second explosion was reported in Dnipro. Three drones were shot down in the Dnipropetrovsk region overnight.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk: The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack from the northeast.
  • Tver Oblast (Russia): A drone was shot down.
  • Odesa: There is damage to residential buildings due to a Russian drone attack. Four cars caught fire. Explosions were reported in Odesa. Russian drones struck the city again overnight.
  • Sumy: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs by tactical aircraft in the Sumy region.
• New Drone Movements:
  • Chernihiv and Sumy: Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy drones moving towards Chernihiv and Sumy from the northeast.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: One drone is flying between Ivano-Frankivsk and Kolomyia.
  • Ternopil Oblast: Two drones have moved from Khmelnytskyi Oblast to the south of Ternopil Oblast.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Three drones are in Pervomaisk district. Another drone is in the eastern part of the region, moving west.
  • Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is circling east of Smila. Two drones are north of Uman, moving west. A drone is reported north of Kamyanske, moving north. Another drone is reported in the north of the region, moving west.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Two drones are in the Nizhyn area. One drone is moving towards Chernihiv from the northeast. Other drones are reported in the west and east of the region, moving west.
  • Kyiv Oblast: Drones are reported on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts. Debris from a downed drone fell near a metro station in Kyiv, damaging a building. A drone is approaching Bucha. A drone flew past Boryspil towards Kyiv.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are reported in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: Drones are reported in the northeast and northwest of Vinnytsia Oblast.
  • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Drones are reported in the west of Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Drones are reported in the center of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the northwest of Mykolaiv Oblast. A drone was detected in the region, changing direction towards the region.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the west and southwest of Chernihiv Oblast.
  • Poltava Oblast: A drone is reported in the north, constantly changing course.
  • Two additional drones are heading towards Izmail. Two drones are in the Vasylkiv area.
• Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate that explosions were heard in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast during an ongoing drone attack.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine. The alert in Kyiv has now been lifted. A new drone attack threat has been declared in the Samara region of Russia.
• Reports indicate that Russian forces shelled the Nikopol region seven times during the day. The Marhanets community was attacked with a drone, but there were no casualties.
• Several drones were shot down on the approach to Smolensk.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted several Ukrainian drones over the Bryansk region. 26 drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region overnight.
• A drone was destroyed over Lake Ladoga, with no reported damage or casualties.
• Massive Drone Attack: Over 100 drones attacked central Russia and the south overnight.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that 104 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed:
    • 47 over Kursk Oblast
    • 27 over Bryansk Oblast
    • 11 over Smolensk Oblast
    • 7 over Tver Oblast
    • 4 over Belgorod Oblast
    • 3 over Nizhny Novgorod Oblast
    • 3 over Kaluga Oblast
    • 1 over Rostov Oblast
    • 1 over Leningrad Oblast
  • The enemy reportedly targeted oil refineries, enterprises, and the Smolensk nuclear power plant.
  • Most attacks were repelled, but some fires broke out at the targeted facilities.
  • Drones attacked the fourth largest oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod. Ukrainian sources confirm that at least two drones hit the Kstovo oil refinery, also known as "Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez," causing a large-scale fire. This is the second attack on this facility since March 2024.

Internal Russian Military Situation

• 51st Army: There is a shortage of personnel on the front lines.
• Sports Relays Order: There are reports of an order for sports relays among military personnel, despite the ongoing intense fighting.
• Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel:
  • Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure.
  • Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair.
  • Discusses the importance of small-scale "garage" manufacturers in supplying the Russian military.
  • Raises concerns about the potential for social instability in Russia due to the marginalization of returning veterans.
  • Criticizes the children of Russian elites receiving safe, rear-echelon positions in the military.
  • Discusses the internal conflicts and power struggles within the Russian military and volunteer forces.
• Musician Andrey Makarevich has reportedly stated that he is not ready to help the Kyiv regime, as a missile bought with his money could theoretically kill his son.
• A video from the "Colonelcassad" channel shows a captured Ukrainian "Kozak-2" armored vehicle, now reportedly in service with Russian forces.

Political/Economic Situation

• US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has issued an order to halt most foreign aid for 90 days, including aid to Ukraine. The US has frozen the U4U program for Ukrainian refugees. A US federal court has reportedly blocked Trump's decision to freeze foreign aid.
• Ukrainian Military Re-evaluation Deadline Extended: The deadline for re-evaluation of Ukrainian citizens with limited military fitness will be extended.
• Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus.
• Zelensky's Statement on Drone Components: President Zelensky stated that the Shahed drones used in recent attacks rely on foreign components. He also stated that every step of Putin is aimed at making the war endless.
• Europe's Fear of Exclusion from Peace Talks: European officials are concerned that the EU and Ukraine might be excluded from peace negotiations.
• EU Sanctions on Russian Citizens: The EU has imposed sanctions on three Russian citizens allegedly responsible for cyberattacks.
• Poland to Invite Trump to Three Seas Summit: Poland plans to invite former US President Donald Trump to the Three Seas Initiative summit.
• Ukraine's Defense Industry Funding: The Ukrainian defense industry has secured over $1.5 billion in foreign partner funding in 2024.
• Rising Inflation and Economic Difficulties in Russia: Despite reported economic growth, Russia is facing increasing inflation, rising prices, and labor shortages.
• The volume of chemical production under the federal project is estimated at 11.1 trillion rubles by 2030, according to a report by Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of Russia Mikhail Yurin.
• The number of bars in the center of Moscow increased by 8% in 2024, reaching 168.
• Russians will be able to withdraw their pension savings in a lump sum if the amount is less than 412,000 rubles.
• Demand for magical attributes in Russia has increased by 34% in 2024.
• Putin's Statement on Peace Negotiations: Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that he is not ready to sign a peace treaty with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he considers "illegitimate." Putin believes that only the Verkhovna Rada is the legitimate authority in Ukraine. He also claimed that if the West stopped supporting Ukraine, the conflict would end within two months. Additionally, he mentioned that Moscow had allegedly offered Ukrainian forces to leave the territories of the self-proclaimed "DNR" and "LNR" before the start of the war, and if Kyiv had agreed, hostilities would not have begun.
• German Chancellor Scholz Criticizes Elon Musk: Scholz criticized Musk for supporting right-wing parties in Europe, calling it "disgusting."
• EU Sanctions: The new EU anti-Russian sanctions package will not include a full ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports.
• Interest in game consoles in Russia grew by 32% in 2024.
• Russian Minister of Internal Affairs Vladimir Kolokoltsev held a working meeting with the Minister of Justice and Internal Affairs of Mongolia, Oyunsaikhany Altangerel, in Moscow.
• Ukraine's Foreign Ministry has responded to statements made by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, calling them "absurd" and an attempt to shift responsibility for internal political failures onto foreign states.
• Germany has ordered €2.5 billion worth of armaments ahead of early elections. The rearmament program was initiated by the Scholz government following the start of the Ukrainian conflict.
• Offline alcohol sales using biometrics are planned to be launched in Russia in 2025.

Information Warfare

• DeepState Analysis: The DeepState Telegram channel shared an image claiming to show Russian forces in the central part of Velyka Novosilka, contradicting official Ukrainian reports. They also report that Russian forces have advanced near several settlements.
• "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram Channel: A user on the "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram channel warned about a suspicious account, potentially linked to either Russian authorities or the enemy.
• Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel:
  • Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure.
  • Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair and accusing their command of abandoning them.
  • Discusses the importance of small-scale "garage" manufacturers in supplying the Russian military.
  • Raises concerns about the potential for social instability in Russia due to the marginalization of returning veterans.
  • Criticizes the children of Russian elites receiving safe, rear-echelon positions in the military.
  • Discusses the internal conflicts and power struggles within the Russian military and volunteer forces.
• Automated Bot Activity: Evidence suggests the use of automated bots on Telegram channels to post contextually relevant but inappropriate comments.
• Ukrainian and Russian Media Reports: Reports from both Ukrainian and Russian media outlets highlight the discrepancies between official statements and the actual situation on the ground.
• Propaganda Videos: Videos showing the raising of the Russian flag in Velyka Novosilka and interviews with captured Ukrainian soldiers are being used for propaganda purposes by Russian sources.
• The channel "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports on the activities of Russian airborne forces and shares a video of musician Andrey Makarevich stating he is not ready to help the Kyiv regime.
• The "Rybare" channel provides a summary of the situation on the morning of January 28, 2025, highlighting the liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino in the Kursk region, ongoing battles in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, and the strategic importance of Velyka Novosilka. It also mentions drone attacks and shelling incidents.
• The "Operatsiya Z" channel shared an image and a description of the situation near Kurakhove, highlighting the importance of Andriivka.
• The "Operativny ZSU" channel shared images and a description of the aftermath of a drone attack on Kharkiv.
• Images of the aftermath of the drone attack on Odesa are being shared on social media.
• New video evidence from the "Colonelcassad" channel shows coordinated drone strikes by the "BT-40" and "KVN" groups, targeting enemy positions, vehicles, and personnel with high precision. The footage demonstrates the use of drones for reconnaissance, target acquisition, and the destruction of enemy assets, with a particular focus on armored vehicle engagements. The video also includes thermal and infrared imaging, indicating operations are being conducted under low visibility conditions. The "BAIKAL 40" and "NARODNY FRONT" logos suggest the unit designation and affiliation of those conducting operations.
• New video evidence from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows a Russian BM-21 "Grad" MLRS being loaded and operated, highlighting its ability to launch a large number of unguided rockets at an area. The video displays the importance of logistics as the manual loading process is an undertaking. The use of the targeting equipment suggests an aim at calculated shots rather than precision, indicating targets of large size or area saturation. The video emphasizes the importance of mobility to avoid counter-battery fire.
• New video evidence from the "Colonelcassad" channel shows a Russian FPV drone attack on Ukrainian forces in a trench. The footage demonstrates the use of drones for both surveillance and direct attack, highlighting the vulnerability of entrenched positions to these tactics.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that 104 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed overnight, including 47 over Kursk Oblast, 27 over Bryansk Oblast, 11 over Smolensk Oblast, 7 over Tver Oblast, 4 over Belgorod Oblast, 3 over Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, 3 over Kaluga Oblast, 1 over Rostov Oblast, and 1 over Leningrad Oblast.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported on the presence of Russian warships and missile carriers in the Black Sea, Sea of Azov, and Mediterranean Sea. As of 06:00 on January 29, 2025, there was 1 Russian warship in the Black Sea, with no missile carriers present. In the Sea of Azov, there were no Russian warships or missile carriers. In the Mediterranean Sea, there were 6 Russian warships, 2 of which were carrying "Kalibr" cruise missiles with a total capacity of up to 22 missiles.
• The Ukrainian Navy reported that there are no Russian missile carriers in either the Black Sea or the Sea of Azov.
• Video evidence shows a Russian special forces unit operating in the Donetsk region, using drones and other advanced equipment. The unit is seeking public donations to procure additional gear.
• A video shows a modified utility vehicle with a machine gun being used in a tactical environment, highlighting adaptability and the use of light mobile units.
• A video depicts a large-scale fire at a nighttime industrial site, likely the result of a deliberate strike. The fire is identified as the Kstovo oil refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region, also known as "Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez". It is the fourth largest oil refinery in Russia, processing over 15 million tons of crude oil per year. This is not the first time the refinery has been targeted by drones.
• The "WarGonzo" Telegram channel provides a frontline report for the morning of January 29, 2025, detailing the situation in the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kursk regions.
• The "Operative ZSU" Telegram channel reports that 1670 Russian soldiers were "de-Russified" in the past day.
• Reports indicate that an SBU report, allegedly leaked by the Joker DPR channel, confirms Ukrainian media reports about personnel issues within the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including low morale in units in the occupied part of the Kursk region. The report also mentions significant losses among mercenaries.
• Russian operators of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade reportedly destroyed multiple tanks, armored vehicles, and enemy infantry in the South Donetsk direction.
• A video from the "Colonelcassad" channel shows a captured Ukrainian "Kozak-2" armored vehicle, now reportedly in service with Russian forces. The video is used to demonstrate the capture of Ukrainian equipment and highlight Russian military successes.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances on multiple fronts, particularly in the Donetsk region, with the confirmed capture of Velyka Novosilka representing a major setback for Ukraine. Ukrainian sources have confirmed the loss of Velyka Novosilka, and also report advances by Russian forces near Pishchane, Nadiivka, Andriivka, and Baranivka. The escalating drone warfare, with increased activity across multiple regions, confirmed attacks inside Russia, and a massive overnight attack on Cherkasy Oblast, along with a repelled drone attack on Kyiv, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The new reports of drone movements towards Chernihiv, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, Mykolaiv, Izmail, Bucha, and Vasylkiv Oblasts, as well as the continued threat to Dnipropetrovsk, indicate a potential expansion and intensification of the drone conflict. The confirmed drone attacks on Odesa and now Izmail resulting in damage to residential buildings further underscores the vulnerability of Ukrainian cities to these attacks. A new drone attack threat has been declared in the Samara region of Russia.

The use of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast and the deployment of electronic warfare equipment to the front lines indicate continued Russian military activity and technological advancements. The new video evidence of coordinated drone strikes by Ukrainian forces demonstrates their continued ability to target and destroy Russian military assets, while the footage of the Russian BM-21 "Grad" MLRS in operation highlights the ongoing use of area bombardment tactics by Russian forces. The liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino in the Kursk region, along with the reported advances near Sverdlykove, confirms the Russian forces' continued success in regaining territory in this area. The destruction of a drone over Lake Ladoga indicates the expansion of the conflict zone and the potential targeting of areas further from the front lines. The analysis of the videos from "Colonelcassad" and the Russian Ministry of Defense provides further insight into the tactics and equipment being employed by both sides, highlighting the importance of drone warfare, precision strikes, and area bombardment in the current conflict. The new reports of a repelled drone attack on Kyiv, with debris falling near a metro station and damaging a building, indicate the continued threat to the capital and the ongoing efforts to defend it.

The massive number of drones reportedly shot down by Russian air defenses overnight, along with the reported presence of Russian warships and missile carriers in the Mediterranean Sea, highlight the scale of the conflict and the potential for further escalation. The Ukrainian General Staff's report on the naval situation, indicating no Russian missile carriers in the Black Sea or Sea of Azov, suggests a possible shift in Russian naval strategy or a temporary lull in activity in these areas. Putin's recent statement on peace negotiations and his refusal to recognize Zelensky as the legitimate leader of Ukraine add a new layer of complexity to the political situation and indicate potential obstacles to any future negotiations. The massive drone attack on Russia, with over 100 drones targeting various regions, marks a significant escalation in the conflict. While most of the drones were reportedly intercepted, the attacks demonstrate Ukraine's ability to strike deep within Russian territory and target strategic assets like oil refineries and the Smolensk nuclear power plant. Russian forces are improving their tactical position with an advance near Terniv in the Donetsk region, destroying three strongholds, a Western artillery installation, and several Ukrainian vehicles. The reported drone attacks on the Shkilnyi airfield in Odesa and the targeting of "Tekever" drones used for reconnaissance in the Black Sea indicate a focus on disrupting Ukrainian intelligence capabilities. The destruction of a MiG-29 command and control center at the Kanatovo airfield in Kropyvnytskyi and a MiG-29 training simulator at the Vasylkiv airbase in Kyiv Oblast, along with damage to an engineering personnel barracks, demonstrate Russian efforts to degrade Ukrainian air capabilities. The new video of a captured Ukrainian "Kozak-2" armored vehicle, now in Russian service, highlights the ongoing transfer of equipment and the potential for captured vehicles to be used against Ukrainian forces. The new drone threat in the Samara region of Russia suggests a potential expansion of the conflict zone and the targeting of new areas. Germany's €2.5 billion arms order ahead of early elections indicates a significant investment in military capabilities and a potential shift in the European security landscape.

Recommendations

1. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of these cities to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region. The situation in Pokrovsk is particularly critical, given the reported 48 assault actions and the capture of a Ukrainian soldier from the US-trained 153rd Brigade. Address the threat to the left flank of the Pokrovsk sector posed by the Russian assault on Kotlyno.
2. Address the Situation in Velyka Novosilka: Now that the settlement is lost, focus on conducting rearguard actions in the surrounding areas to slow the Russian advance and inflict maximum casualties. Exploit the reported low morale among Ukrainian troops in the area, as indicated in the leaked SBU report.
3. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk region and areas targeted by increased drone movements like Chernihiv, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, Mykolaiv, Izmail, Bucha, and Vasylkiv Oblasts. Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and military assets. Address the new drone threats in these regions and the continued threat to Dnipropetrovsk. Given the massive number of drones used in the recent attacks, invest heavily in counter-drone technologies and air defense systems.
4. Strengthen Air Defenses: Deploy additional air defense systems, including short-range and medium-range systems, to protect cities and critical infrastructure from drone and missile attacks. Focus on areas under threat, including Kharkiv and regions targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks. Given the new reports of continued drone attacks, enhance air defenses in these regions and investigate the possibility of deploying additional counter-drone measures. Given the reported activity of Russian tactical aviation on the northeast axis and the use of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast, deploy additional air defense systems and fighter jets to counter this threat. Monitor airspace closely and be prepared to intercept any hostile aircraft. The successful downing of a drone over Lake Ladoga highlights the need for air defense coverage even in areas far from the front lines. Given the new reports of drone movements towards Izmail and from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast, it is crucial to reinforce air defenses in these areas. Deploy additional counter-drone systems and ensure that existing air defense systems are fully operational and ready to engage any incoming threats.
5. Address Logistical Challenges: Secure supply lines and establish alternative routes to ensure the continued flow of troops, equipment, and supplies to the front lines.
6. International Support: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure additional military and financial aid. Emphasize the need for advanced weaponry, including long-range strike capabilities and air defense systems. Address the confirmed 90-day suspension of US aid and explore alternative funding sources. Analyze Trump's statements regarding potential visits to Saudi Arabia and the UK, and his upcoming conversation with the British Prime Minister, for potential impacts on international support. Counteract the reported blocking of Trump's decision to freeze foreign aid by the US federal court.
7. Information Warfare: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda campaigns by providing accurate and timely information. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support. Analyze the captured Ukrainian soldier's statements for potential propaganda value and counter them with accurate information about Ukrainian military training and conduct. Address the new accusations from the Chinese embassy regarding US biolabs and counter any potential disinformation campaigns related to this issue.
8. **Prepare for Protracted Conflict