Major Updates on the Military Situation in Ukraine (January 30, 2025)
Summary
The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk region and a stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region. Russian forces have secured significant gains, including the complete capture of Velyka Novosilka. The situation in Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar is increasingly precarious for Ukrainian forces. Drone warfare continues to intensify, with widespread attacks across multiple regions and confirmed strikes deep inside Russian territory. Air raid alerts have been issued in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine (Kyivska, Chernihivska, Poltavska, Sumska, Cherkaska, Kirovohradska), with the threat of ballistic missile attacks. In Kyiv Oblast, Ukrainian air defense is actively engaging enemy drones.
Donetsk Region
Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed to be under complete Russian control. Video evidence shows the Russian 40th Separate Guards Brigade operating within the settlement.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, having severed one of the two main routes to Dnipro. Ukrainian forces are struggling to defend the city.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area. Fighting continues on the outskirts.
Kurakhove: Most of the city has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. Russian forces are advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses are under immense strain, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts and near several mines.
Other Locations:
Novoyeлизаvetovka: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially declared the liberation of the settlement.
Zverevo, Solone, Uspenivka, Dachne, Kotlyne, Andriivka: Russian forces are making advances.
Bogatyrskoe: Russian assault groups have advanced to the area of Alekseevka.
Zelenovka: Fierce fighting is reported.
Vuhledar: Russian sappers discovered mines made with 3D printers.
Sukhi Yaly River: Russian artillerymen are targeting Ukrainian forces.
Luhansk Region
Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, Zakhidne, and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River.
An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk and have initiated battles in Bohuslavka.
Kursk Region
The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and inflicting heavy losses.
Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky.
Sudzha: Russian forces are bypassing the city from the south.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian assault force during an attempted landing near Tetkino.
Reports of significant North Korean casualties, with estimates ranging from 300 to 4,000 killed.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces destroying a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
In the Kursk region, drone operators of the Special Operations Forces destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers who were advancing on Ukrainian positions.
Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults in the Kursk region.
Kharkiv Region
Drone Attacks: Multiple reports of drone attacks and explosions in Kharkiv and surrounding areas. A fire broke out at an energy facility.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna.
Kupiansk: Under renewed heavy shelling. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm the city.
Vovchansk: Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack.
Zaporizhzhia Region
An air raid alert has been declared.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian Kozak armored vehicle and thwarted a Ukrainian rotation.
Other Regions
Extensive Drone Activity: New alerts for multiple regions, including Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Boryspil, Vasylkiv, and Kyiv. Confirmed drone movements across various regions. An Egyptian volunteer fighting for Russia was seriously wounded after saving a comrade.
Kyiv: Enemy UAVs are in the vicinity of the city, with air defenses engaging. Debris from a downed drone fell in the Desnianskyi district, causing a fire.
Sumy: Infrastructure facilities were damaged. A Shahed drone hit an apartment building, resulting in at least 4 injuries. A rescue operation is underway for a woman trapped under debris. A headquarters for emergency response will be set up.
Bryansk (Russia): Two Ukrainian drones were shot down. Reports that drones attacked the village of Mamai, with an explosion near the "Druzhba" oil pipeline distribution station.
Tver (Russia): A fuel transfer station was reportedly attacked by Ukrainian drones.
Odesa: An attack on the port infrastructure was reported.
Belgorod (Russia): A private house was attacked by a drone.
Chernihiv: Russian forces attacked non-residential facilities with drones.
Cherkasy: Overnight drone attack reported.
Ivano-Frankivsk: The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack.
Military Equipment
FPV Drones: Both sides are extensively using FPV drones.
UAVs: Ukrainian forces report destroying over 500 enemy aerial targets in the past week. Ukrainian air defense is actively engaging enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast.
"Shahed" Drones: Russia launched another attack on Ukraine using "Shahed" drones.
Guided Aerial Bombs: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs on the Sumy region.
2S43 Malva Self-Propelled Howitzer: Ukrainian forces successfully targeted and damaged a Russian 2S43 Malva.
Leopard 2A6 tank decoys: Reportedly proven effective, drawing attacks from Russian drones.
Geopolitical Developments
The US has frozen foreign aid, including aid to Ukraine, for 90 days.
Trump threatened to use $330 billion of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine in purchasing American weapons.
Europe is reportedly preparing for a potential escalation of the conflict.
Turkey has expressed its intention to assist the EU in replacing gas transit through Ukraine.
Lukashenko won the presidential election in Belarus.
Saudi Arabia has purchased over €2 billion worth of arms from Russia.
There are reports of an increase in Israeli arms shipments to Ukraine.
Negotiations for a peaceful settlement may begin in April-May.
A potential "100-day plan" for Ukraine, attributed to Trump, has surfaced.
The EU is considering a UN-mandated peacekeeping mission.
NATO plans to share classified data on military production with the EU.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the conflict in Ukraine could end within 1.5-2 months if Ukraine runs out of "sponsor money and ammo."
Reports suggest that contractors in the Kursk region have allegedly embezzled over 3 billion rubles allocated for the construction of fortifications.
The European Commission is introducing tariffs on a number of agricultural products and nitrogen fertilizers from Russia and Belarus.
NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General James Appathurai publicly accused Russia of plotting to assassinate Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall.
The US has reportedly transferred 90 Patriot anti-aircraft guided missiles from Israel to Poland, with the intention of providing them to Ukraine.
Axios reports that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu approved the transfer of Patriot missiles to Ukraine in exchange for Zelensky allowing the annual pilgrimage of Hasidic Jews to Uman.
Israel breaks off all contacts with UNRWA starting January 30th.
The CIA has changed its position and now favors the lab leak theory for the origin of COVID-19.
Ukrainian gas storage facilities are depleted, requiring urgent gas imports.
Recommendations
Strengthen Air Defense: Prioritize the deployment of additional air defense systems, particularly in Kyiv, Sumy, and other regions experiencing increased drone activity. Focus on countering "Shahed" drones and enhancing the ability to intercept guided aerial bombs.
Reinforce Positions in Donetsk: Given the critical situation in Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar, deploy reinforcements, anti-tank weaponry, and air defense systems to these areas. Focus on preventing further Russian advances and encirclements.
Address the Situation in Sumy: Provide immediate support to those affected by the drone attack in Sumy. Repair damaged infrastructure and ensure the safety of residents. Enhance security measures to prevent further attacks.
Secure Critical Infrastructure: Given the attacks on energy facilities and the threat to the "Druzhba" oil pipeline, prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure, including energy, transportation, and communication networks.
Enhance Intelligence Capabilities: Improve intelligence gathering and analysis to better predict enemy movements, identify potential threats, and counter disinformation campaigns.
Maintain International Support: Continue efforts to secure international support, particularly regarding military aid and diplomatic pressure on Russia. Address the implications of the US aid freeze and explore alternative sources of assistance.
Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the volatile situation and reports of Europe preparing for escalation, develop contingency plans for various scenarios, including increased Russian aggression and potential spillover effects on neighboring countries.
Address Humanitarian Needs: Provide support to displaced populations and address the humanitarian consequences of the conflict, including medical care, food, and shelter.
Counter Disinformation: Combat Russian disinformation campaigns and promote accurate information about the situation on the ground. Highlight Ukrainian successes and resilience.
Explore Diplomatic Solutions: While maintaining a strong military posture, continue to explore avenues for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Engage with international partners to facilitate negotiations and a potential ceasefire.
Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on reported issues within the Russian military, such as low morale, corruption, and internal conflicts. Target propaganda efforts to exacerbate these divisions and encourage defections.
Enhance Drone Warfare Capabilities: Continue to develop and deploy advanced drone technologies for reconnaissance, surveillance, and offensive operations. Focus on countering Russian drone capabilities and disrupting their supply chains.
Improve Logistics and Supply Lines: Ensure the secure and efficient flow of supplies, including weapons, ammunition, and humanitarian aid, to the front lines and affected areas. Address potential vulnerabilities in logistics networks.
Train and Equip Reserve Forces: Prepare and equip reserve forces to bolster the defense capabilities and provide a pool of trained personnel for potential deployments.
Cybersecurity: Enhance cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure, government systems, and military networks from cyberattacks.
Economic Resilience: Implement measures to strengthen the Ukrainian economy and mitigate the economic impact of the conflict. Seek international support for economic recovery and reconstruction efforts.
Public Morale: Maintain public morale and support for the war effort through transparent communication, effective leadership, and recognition of the sacrifices made by soldiers and civilians.
Long-Term Strategy: Develop a comprehensive long-term strategy for national defense and security, taking into account the lessons learned from the conflict and the evolving geopolitical landscape.
International Partnerships: Strengthen alliances and partnerships with countries that support Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Seek increased cooperation on defense, intelligence, and economic matters.
Post-Conflict Planning: Begin planning for post-conflict reconstruction, reconciliation, and the reintegration of occupied territories. Address issues such as demining, infrastructure repair, and the return of displaced populations.
