Major Updates on the Military Situation in Ukraine (January 29, 2025)
Donetsk Region
Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed to be under complete Russian control, with Russian forces visually confirmed in the central part of the settlement.
Pokrovsk:
Remains a focal point of intense fighting, with 67 Russian attacks reported in the past 24 hours near various settlements.
Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have severed one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro.
Ukrainian forces report repelling attacks near multiple locations, with two combat clashes ongoing.
Russian airstrikes with guided aerial bombs reported near Bilytske, Pokrovsk, and Odradne.
Chasiv Yar:
Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi and Sievernyi districts.
Fighting continues on the outskirts, with Russian forces approaching from the north and south of the railway.
Kurakhove:
Most of the city has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno.
Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, with active fighting near Dachne.
Toretsk:
Ukrainian defenses are under immense strain, with reports of a potential collapse.
The Ukrainian ISW reports that Ukrainian forces have retaken some positions near Toretsk.
Battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts of the city and near several mines.
Other Locations:
Novoyeлизаvetovka: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially declared the liberation of the settlement.
Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone.
Zverevo, Solone, Uspenivka, Dachne, Kotlyne, Andriivka: Russian forces are making advances.
Novovasylivka: Ukrainian forces organized an attack on the western outskirts.
Seversk: Russian forces report the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV control point and ammunition depot.
Novoyehorivka: Third Assault Brigade destroyed a Russian BUK-M3.
Bogatyrskoe: Russian assault groups have advanced to the area of Alekseevka.
Zelenovka: Fierce fighting is reported.
Luhansk Region
Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, Zakhidne, and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Makiivka, Ivanivka, and Novosadove.
An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk and have initiated battles in Bohuslavka.
Kursk Region
The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and reporting the capture of several settlements.
Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky.
Sudzha: Russian forces are bypassing the city from the south, with fighting reported near Kurylivka. Russian aviation struck with FAB-3000 in the north-eastern part of Sudzha and the northern outskirts of Honcharivka.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian assault force during an attempted landing near Tetkino.
Reports of significant North Korean casualties.
Reports of over 360 Ukrainian troops killed in the region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering.
Russian forces are destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
Ussuri paratroopers are displaying captured trophies, including a US-made 7.62mm M240 machine gun, and the restoration of a captured Ukrainian BMP-2 in the border areas of the Kursk region.
Ka-52M helicopters for airstrikes: Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters for airstrikes.
Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold: A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
In the Kursk region, the enemy delivered up to a company of militants to Nikolsky. After entering the area, the enemy troops tried to attack, our troops repulsed the attack with fire, the enemy suffered losses of up to 50 people. From Nikolsky, they are pressing in the direction of Russkoye Porechnoye to cut off the enemy grouping at Malaya Lokna and to the north. In the northern part of Russkoye Porechnoye, they struck a group of the enemy, resulting in the loss of one AFV and about 20 personnel in the temporary deployment point. Crimean paratroopers are pressing on Sverdlikovo, where the paratroopers' UAV operators also hit an enemy tank. The elimination of Ukrainians from the nearest forest plantations is ongoing.
Kharkiv Region
Drone Attacks:
Multiple reports of drone attacks and explosions in Kharkiv and surrounding areas.
A fire broke out at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack.
Russian Advance:
Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna.
Russian forces have reportedly taken Dvurichna and are advancing towards Kupyansk.
Kupiansk:
Under renewed heavy shelling.
Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm the city.
Zaporizhzhia Region
An air raid alert has been declared in the region.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian Kozak armored vehicle and thwarted a Ukrainian rotation.
At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Other Regions
Extensive Drone Activity:
New alerts for multiple regions, including Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Boryspil, Vasylkiv, and Kyiv.
Confirmed drone movements across various regions, with reports of drones being shot down.
Drone security is reported in Moscow, Tambov, Tula, Rostov, Kursk, Bryansk, Lipetsk, Ryazan regions, and occupied Crimea.
Multiple groups of drones are reported moving through various regions, including Kherson, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, and Ivano-Frankivsk.
Explosions were reported in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast during an ongoing drone attack.
Kyiv:
Enemy UAVs are in the vicinity of the city, with air defenses engaging.
Debris from a downed drone fell in the Desnianskyi district, causing a fire.
Mozyr (Belarus): A Shahed drone was reportedly shot down.
Bryansk (Russia): Two Ukrainian drones were shot down.
Tver (Russia): A fuel transfer station was reportedly attacked by Ukrainian drones.
Berdyansk: Explosions were reported near the port area.
Sevastopol: An air raid alert was reported, with maritime transport halted.
Kherson: A civilian was killed by a drone attack.
Dnipropetrovsk: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 13 drones overnight.
Sumy: Infrastructure facilities were damaged. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones.
Ryazan: Reports of a new attack on the oil refinery.
Donetsk: Air defense systems are active, with reports of at least ten explosions.
Mykolaiv: A powerful explosion was reported. Two people were killed as a result of a Russian missile strike.
Odesa: An attack on the port infrastructure was reported.
Belgorod: A private house was attacked by a drone, resulting in the deaths of a woman and a two-year-old child.
Murmansk: Temporary restrictions at the airport have been lifted.
Chernihiv: Russian forces attacked non-residential facilities with drones.
Cherkasy: Overnight drone attack reported, with damage to an energy infrastructure facility in Uman.
Kazan airport: Restrictions due to a drone threat, since lifted.
Military Equipment
FPV Drones: Both Russian and Ukrainian forces are extensively using FPV drones.
UAVs: Ukrainian forces report destroying over 500 enemy aerial targets in the past week.
"Kalibr" Missiles: Russia has deployed "Kalibr" missile carriers in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea.
"Shahed" Drones: Russia launched another attack on Ukraine using "Shahed" drones.
X-59/69 Missiles: Russia attacked Ukraine with two X-59/69 missiles overnight.
Guided Aerial Bombs: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs on the Sumy region.
2S43 Malva Self-Propelled Howitzer: Ukrainian forces successfully targeted and damaged a rare Russian 2S43 Malva.
Bradley BMP: Another destroyed Bradley BMP was reported on the Donetsk axis.
M712 Copperhead: Ukrainian artillery strikes on concrete shelters of Russian forces in Hola Prystan, Kherson region, using 155-mm high-precision guided munition M712 Copperhead with laser guidance.
Geopolitical Developments
The US Senate confirmed Scott Bessent as the new Treasury Secretary.
US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports and reopen oil production in protected areas of Alaska.
Trump threatened to use $330 billion of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine in purchasing American weapons.
The US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years.
European allies are pushing for US involvement in peacekeeping in Ukraine.
Trump's administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
A potential "100-day plan" for Ukraine, attributed to Trump, has surfaced in the media.
Europe is reportedly preparing for a potential escalation of the conflict.
Turkey has expressed its intention to assist the EU in replacing gas transit through Ukraine.
Colombia has agreed to accept migrants from the US. Tariffs and some sanctions have been lifted.
Lukashenko won the presidential election in Belarus with 87.6% of the vote.
Saudi Arabia has purchased over €2 billion worth of arms from Russia, including 39 "Pantsir-S1M" air defense systems.
There are reports of an increase in Israeli arms shipments to Ukraine.
Negotiations for a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict may begin in April-May, preceded by a meeting between Putin and Trump.
The Swedish Security Service has detained a vessel in the Baltic Sea on suspicion of damaging a cable.
Spanish and American intelligence services detained a ship with a Russian crew off the coast of Portugal on suspicion of drug trafficking.
A fiber optic cable between Latvia and Sweden has been damaged.
The Israeli ambassador to Russia stated that Israel will be represented at the May 9 parade in Moscow.
The UK government is considering selling two amphibious assault ships to Brazil.
Hungarian Prime Minister Orban demands Ukraine restore Russian gas transit to continue EU sanctions against Russia.
The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" and stated only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue.
Zelensky began copying Trump, according to Le Monde.
Marco Rubio stated that Ukraine and Russia must "give up something" to end the war.
Donald Trump said he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, but did not specify a date.
Donald Trump said the US has a right to half of TikTok.
Donald Trump signed a decree to create a structure in the US headed by Elon Musk to improve the efficiency of the government.
Donald Trump expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days. This law also affects Ukraine.
Trump signed a decree to abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.
The US has officially exited the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement.
French President Macron stated that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table.
Zelensky stated that US peacekeepers should be sent to Ukraine.
Zelensky said he is confident that Xi Jinping can push Putin to peace.
Putin is ready for a conversation with Trump, according to Peskov.
The Polish Foreign Minister has stated that Putin must earn a meeting with Trump.
Preparation for direct negotiations between "Putin" and US President Donald Trump on a possible truce in the war between Russia and Ukraine is the only topic of discussion within the Politburo.
Part of the Russian leadership put forward a claim to the "Russian city of Narva" on the agenda of the negotiations.
Representatives of the Politburo were told that Trump intends to block all opportunities for Russia to bypass sanctions and "put an end to the gray fleet" that transports Russian oil products.
A telephone conversation between "Putin" and Trump could take place in the next three days.
The agreement on Ukraine was not reached because Zelensky wanted to fight.
Trump administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
China has reiterated its position in favor of dialogue on Ukraine.
The EU has called the presidential elections in Belarus a "complete fake".
Saudi Arabia responded to Trump's proposal to collapse oil prices by stating that Riyadh is focused on "long-term stability of the oil market."
China responded to Trump's request for assistance in ending the war in Ukraine, stating that they are "ready to see all sides play a constructive role".
The heads of foreign affairs of 27 EU countries will discuss on January 27th the 16th package of sanctions against Russia and the use of its frozen assets.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sharply responded to Russia's demand for Ukraine to refuse to join NATO.
US Secretary of State Blinken removed the official statement on the non-recognition of the future presidential elections in Belarus.
NATO plans to share classified data on military production with the EU and defense industry representatives.
Trump reportedly plans to hold a phone call with Putin in late January or early February, followed by discussions with Ukrainian authorities.
A potential meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin is proposed for February-early March 2025.
A ceasefire is proposed from April 20, 2025, with the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region.
An International Peace Conference is proposed for late April 2025.
A prisoner exchange "all for all" is proposed for late April 2025.
A declaration on ending the war in Ukraine is proposed for May 9, 2025.
Presidential elections in Ukraine are proposed for late August 2025, with parliamentary and local elections in late October 2025.
Ukraine would not join NATO and declare neutrality.
Ukraine would join the EU by 2030, with the EU committing to post-war reconstruction.
Ukraine would not reduce its army size, and the US would continue supporting its modernization.
Ukraine would not recognize Russian sovereignty over occupied territories but would also refrain from military or diplomatic attempts to regain them.
Some sanctions against Russia would be lifted immediately after the agreement, others over three years based on compliance.
Restrictions on Russian energy imports to the EU would be removed, but subject to a special duty to fund Ukraine's reconstruction.
Parties supporting the Russian language and peaceful coexistence with Russia would be allowed in Ukrainian elections.
The issue of a European peacekeeping contingent is highlighted as problematic.
Europe is reportedly preparing for the "most extreme" military scenario due to concerns about a potential "Trump-Putin 2.0" alliance.
European governments fear that Russia may target them after Ukraine.
Lithuania plans to mine bridges leading to Russia and is prepared to destroy them if Russian tanks attempt to cross.
Plans are underway to build a large-scale anti-missile defense system in Europe, similar to Israel's "Iron Dome."
Norway has updated its emergency preparedness brochure for citizens.
Germany has allocated around 100 million euros to restore public sirens.
Swedish church authorities have begun searching for additional cemetery space in case the conflict reaches their shores.
Concerns are widespread that a new US president might not defend historic NATO allies if they are attacked by Russia.
Turkey intends to help the EU replace gas transit through Ukraine.
Reports indicate a potential shift in the political landscape of Belarus.
There is speculation about a potential "100-day plan" for Ukraine, attributed to former US President Trump.
Europe is reportedly preparing for a potential escalation of the conflict.
Turkey has expressed its intention to assist the EU in replacing gas transit through Ukraine.
The Wall Street Journal reports that US officials are shocked by Trump's suspension of foreign aid.
The EU is considering a UN-mandated peacekeeping mission.
Hungary's Minister of Foreign Affairs has signaled that the EU may "rape" European principles of unanimity if there is no consensus on the continuation of anti-Russian sanctions.
NATO will reportedly share confidential military production data with the EU and defense industry representatives.
A new "100-day plan" by former US President Trump for a settlement in Ukraine has surfaced in the media.
Prime Minister of Serbia, Miloš Vučević, is resigning amidst student protests.
Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is touring European capitals to rally support for the defense of Greenland.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sharply responded to Slovak Prime Minister Fico's statements about "enemies".
The head of the Russian State Duma alleged that there is a threat of nuclear war following Tucker Carlson's interview about an assassination attempt on Putin.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs' sharp response to Slovak Prime Minister Fico's statements about "enemies" further highlights the strained relations between Ukraine and some of its neighbors.
The internal political situation in Slovakia, with falling trust in Fico's government and protests against his pro-Russian course, adds another layer of complexity to the regional dynamics.
The confirmation by the Ukrainian General Staff that the Nizhny Novgorod oil refinery was targeted further highlights Ukraine's ability to strike deep inside Russian territory.
The reported temporary restrictions at the Murmansk airport due to security concerns also indicate a heightened state of alert within Russia.
The update from the Kyiv City Military Administration (КМВА) regarding the fire in the Desnianskyi district confirms that there were no casualties and that the fire has been localized.
The statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense regarding the liberation of Novoyeлизаvetovka in the Donetsk People's Republic marks another significant advance for Russian forces in the region.
The EU is considering disabling 15 banks from SWIFT as part of a 16th package of sanctions against Russia, along with a potential phased ban on Russian aluminum imports.
The reported request from the new Syrian authorities for Russia to provide compensation "to restore trust" marks a significant shift in the relationship between the two countries.
The delegation of Georgia has suspended its work in the PACE after the adoption of a resolution.
Maria Zakharova urged to carefully check the accuracy of statements by Western politicians.
The structures of the Domodedovo airport turned out to be under foreign control.
Lipetsk Oblast in Russia has declared an air danger regime.
Trump's confirmation that he has frozen US foreign aid has significant implications for Ukraine.
Deputy Head of the Presidential Office, Iryna Vereshchuk, stated that while this is an unexpected and unpleasant development, Ukraine will work to address the issue.
A video from Donetsk, showing the dire living conditions, serves as a powerful propaganda tool for Ukraine.
The report of the CIA changing its position to favor the lab leak theory for the origins of COVID-19 is a significant development.
The report of 23 attacks by Ukrainian forces in DNR indicates the continued fighting in this region.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the conflict in Ukraine could end within 1.5-2 months if Ukraine runs out of "sponsor money and ammo."
Reports indicate that contractors in the Kursk region have allegedly embezzled over 3 billion rubles allocated for the construction of fortifications.
Russian forces reportedly destroyed a group of foreign mercenaries near Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region.
A Chinese neural network, DeepSeek, has identified what it considers to be the best Russian generals in the war in Ukraine.
The Lostarmour resource reported the loss of 8 additional M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA vehicles in the Kursk direction.
Slovakian Prime Minister Fico threatened to block all EU aid to Ukraine if Zelensky does not resume gas transit through Ukraine.
Video evidence shows the moment of drone arrivals at an oil depot in the Voronezh region.
Satellite imagery from January 6, 2025, shows the appearance of new hangars, shelters, and air defense systems at the Millerovo airbase in Russia.
The European Commission is introducing tariffs on a number of agricultural products and nitrogen fertilizers from Russia and Belarus.
Reports suggest that at least 11 tankers of the "Volgoneft" type, which have been involved in accidents in the Black Sea, are operating in violation of regulations to supply Russia's shadow fleet.
NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General James Appathurai publicly accused Russia of plotting to assassinate Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall.
The US has reportedly transferred 90 Patriot anti-aircraft guided missiles from Israel to Poland, with the intention of providing them to Ukraine.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to visit Washington next week for a meeting with US President Donald Trump.
The White House has stated that the Biden administration spent the US budget like "drunken sailors" and that all funding programs will be reviewed.
A new video shows 6 minutes of continuous FPV drone strikes by Ukrainian forces on Russian positions and personnel in the Kursk region.
Axios reports, citing anonymous sources, that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu approved the transfer of Patriot missiles to Ukraine in exchange for Zelensky allowing the annual pilgrimage of Hasidic Jews to Uman.
A new report indicates that 260 drones were purchased for Ukrainian forces.
Reports indicate that Russian forces targeted and killed Austrian officer Richard Schermann near Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region on January 20.
An image shows a memorial patch for international volunteers who have died fighting for Ukraine.
An air raid alert has been declared in the Samara region of Russia.
Israel with 30 January interrupts any contacts with UNRWA.
Half of Ukraine is under air raid alert due to enemy UAVs in the airspace.
Reports of decoys of Leopard 2A6 tanks in service with the Ukrainian Armed Forces. During their use, the decoys proved their effectiveness, with the enemy expending 1-3 Zala Lancet kamikaze drones and drops on each decoy.
Israel breaks off all contacts with UNRWA starting January 30th, according to Israeli Foreign Ministry official Oren Marmorstein.
Air raid alerts have been declared in half of Ukraine due to the presence of enemy UAVs in the country's airspace, as reported by the Ukrainian Air Force.
CyberBoroshno shared archived photos of Leopard 2A6 tank decoys in use by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The decoys have reportedly proven effective, with each one drawing 1-3 Zala Lancet kamikaze drones and other attacks. The information comes from a "respected reader."
Updated Situation
The military situation in Ukraine continues to be highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian troops are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, with the fall of Velyka Novosilka confirmed and the situation in Pokrovsk and Toretsk becoming increasingly precarious. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region remains stalled. Drone warfare is intensifying, with widespread attacks across multiple regions and new reports of intense drone activity, including an air raid alert in the Samara region of Russia and half of Ukraine under air raid alert. The transfer of 90 Patriot missiles from Israel to Ukraine, if confirmed, represents a significant boost to Ukrainian air defenses. The reported targeting and killing of an Austrian officer near Orikhiv highlights the continued involvement of foreign fighters in the conflict. The new video showing 6 minutes of continuous FPV drone strikes by Ukrainian forces demonstrates the intensity of the fighting and the effectiveness of drone warfare. The purchase of 260 additional drones for Ukrainian forces indicates a continued effort to bolster their drone capabilities. The declaration of an air raid alert in the Samara region of Russia and half of Ukraine suggests that the conflict may be expanding beyond the immediate border areas. The use of Leopard 2A6 tank decoys by Ukrainian forces, as reported by CyberBoroshno, demonstrates a tactical adaptation to the realities of the battlefield, aiming to deceive the enemy and conserve resources.
