Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 29, 2025, 21:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure across multiple fronts, particularly in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is under complete Russian control, and the situation in Pokrovsk is highly precarious. Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, having severed one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are under immense strain, with reports indicating a potential collapse. Drone warfare continues to intensify, with multiple drone attacks reported across various regions. Ukrainian forces successfully struck a Russian 2S43 Malva self-propelled howitzer. Explosions were reported in Berdyansk near the port area. The US has lifted the 90-day freeze on most foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine, after an initial freeze was announced earlier today. However, the White House press secretary has denied the lifting of the freeze, creating confusion and uncertainty regarding the status of US aid.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed to be under complete Russian control. Russian forces are advancing from Velyka Novosilka towards Dnipropetrovsk.
• Pokrovsk:
  • Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro.
  • Intense fighting continues, with Russian forces advancing towards Novohrodivka and Udachne, and expanding their control zone.
  • Ukrainian defenses are under immense pressure.
• Chasiv Yar:
  • Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi and Sievernyi districts.
  • Fighting continues on the outskirts, with Russian forces approaching from the north side of the railway and launching an offensive south of the railway station.
  • There are reports of battles on the southwestern outskirts of the city.
• Kurakhove:
  • Most of the city has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno.
  • Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk.
  • Active fighting is reported near Kurakhove, with a Russian infantry attack on Dachne and Russian forces advancing up to 1.5 km west of Kurakhove.
• Toretsk:
  • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
  • The Ukrainian ISW reports that Ukrainian forces have retaken some positions near Toretsk.
  • Battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts of the city, south of the "Fomikha" mine, for the "Toretska" mine, and the village of Krymske.
• Other Locations:
  • Novoyeлизаvetovka: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially declared the liberation of Novoyeлизаvetovka.
  • Vuhledar: Russian sappers have discovered mines made with 3D printers.
  • Rozdolne: Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian troops with drones.
  • Kramatorsk: The Ukrainian General Staff reports an increase in Russian assault activities and 102 Russian attacks in the past week.
  • Zverevo: Fighting continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces.
  • Solone: Reportedly liberated by Russian forces.
  • Uspenivka: Russian forces are engaged in battles, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian forces are conducting active assault operations.
  • Dachne: Video shows the successful use of an FPV drone by the 238th Artillery Brigade against a group of Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are advancing near Dachne. The 150th Motorized Rifle Division is reportedly active in combat operations in Dachne.
  • Kotlyne: Russian forces are making advances near Kotlyne. Ukrainian forces are reportedly holding the western part of Kotlyne (Dmytrivka).
  • Andriivka: Russian forces are clearing the settlement after a breakthrough.
  • Nadezhdenka: Reports indicate no enemy presence, but some roaming groups are still active.
  • Seversk: Russian forces report the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV control point and ammunition depot near Seversk.
  • Novoyehorivka: Third Assault Brigade responded to a Russian claim about the capture of the village by destroying a Russian BUK-M3.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka. They have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Makiivka, Ivanivka, and Novosadove.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reports 105 Russian attacks on the Lyman axis in the past week.

Kursk Region

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and reporting the capture of several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya.
• Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky.
• Sudzha: In the area of Sudzha, the enemy is transferring elite units of the Special Operations Forces from the Sumy region. Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south. Fighting is reported near Kurylivka. Russian aviation struck with FAB-3000 in the north-eastern part of Sudzha and the northern outskirts of Honcharivka.
• Refugees from the region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
• Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the region for 100 days.
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian assault force during an attempted landing near Tetkino.
• The Russian MoD officially confirms the liberation of Nikolayevo-Daryino.
• A video from the "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel shows Russian forces destroying three Ukrainian MRAPs (Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles) near the border in the area of Tetkino.
• A photograph of Ukrainian soldiers was taken by an FPV-drone operator in the Kursk region, showing at least one and possibly two killed.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks: Drone attacks continue in the region, with new reports of a large fire in Kharkiv caused by a Russian "Shahed" drone attack. A fire broke out at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack, causing power and water supply issues. Several groups of drones were reported moving from Kharkiv towards Poltava.
• Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna. They have occupied the forest near Zapadne and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
• Kupiansk: Under renewed heavy shelling. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk and have taken the initiative.
• Explosions: Reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
• Nova Kruhliakivka: A Russian FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer.

Other Regions

• Drone Activity:
  • New alerts for Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Boryspil, and Vasylkiv areas.
  • Confirmed drone movements near Mykolaiv, with one drone approaching Balovne in a northwesterly direction and another circling near Nova Odesa.
  • Updated data confirms drone movements in Zhytomyr, Kropyvnytskyi, Vasylkiv, Cherkasy, Pryluky, and Chernihiv.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that 15 drones did not reach their targets and were "lost on location."
  • Seven Ukrainian drones were destroyed over the Belgorod region and Crimea in the past two hours, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
  • Drone security is reported in Moscow, Tambov, Tula, Rostov, Kursk, Bryansk, Lipetsk, Ryazan regions, and occupied Crimea.
  • Kyiv: Enemy UAVs are in the vicinity of the city. Kyiv air defenses are engaging the drones. Debris from a downed drone fell in the Desnianskyi district, causing a grass and bush fire on open ground. A fire was reported in the center of Kyiv at the Tsarsky sports complex. The fire at the Tsarsky sports complex has been localized, with no casualties reported.
  • Mozyr (Belarus): A Shahed drone was reportedly shot down in the Mozyr region. There is speculation that it may have flown over Belarus on its way to Russia.
  • Bryansk (Russia): Two Ukrainian drones were shot down over the Bryansk region.
  • Tver (Russia): A fuel transfer station was reportedly attacked by Ukrainian drones.
  • Berdyansk: Explosions were reported in the city, near the port area.
  • Sevastopol: An air raid alert was reported in Sevastopol, with maritime transport halted.
  • Kherson: A civilian was killed by a drone attack between Veletenske and Rozlyv. Special forces of the 73rd Naval Center mined the passages of the islands near Kherson, where Russian forces try to pass unnoticed by boat.
  • Dnipropetrovsk: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 13 drones in the region overnight.
  • Sumy: Infrastructure facilities were damaged in Sumy and the surrounding region. New groups of "Shahed" drones were reported, moving towards Poltava.
  • Ryazan: There are reports of a new attack on the oil refinery near Ryazan.
  • Donetsk: Air defense systems are active, with reports of at least ten explosions.
  • Mykolaiv: A powerful explosion was reported in Mykolaiv. Two people were killed as a result of a Russian missile strike on a food industry enterprise during the night.
  • Odesa: An attack on the port infrastructure of Odesa was reported. Images of the aftermath were published by the Izmail Regional State Administration.
  • Belgorod: A private house in the village of Razumnoye was attacked by a drone, resulting in the deaths of a woman and a two-year-old child. The father and another child were injured.
  • Murmansk: Temporary restrictions at the Murmansk airport have been lifted.
  • Chernihiv: Russian forces attacked non-residential facilities with drones.

Military Equipment

• FPV Drones: Russian forces are using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced the start of domestic production of codified FPV drones.
• UAVs: Ukrainian forces are using long-range attack UAVs. Ukrainian forces report destroying over 500 enemy aerial targets in the past week, including 2 guided missiles, 375 "Shahed" drones, 71 reconnaissance drones, and 59 other types of drones.
• "Kalibr" Missiles: Russia has deployed "Kalibr" missile carriers in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea.
• "Shahed" Drones: Russia launched another attack on Ukraine using "Shahed" drones. New groups of "Shahed" drones were reported in Sumy, moving towards Poltava.
• X-59/69 Missiles: Russia attacked Ukraine with two X-59/69 missiles overnight.
• Guided Aerial Bombs: The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation on the northeast axis and the use of guided aerial bombs on the Sumy region.
• 2S43 Malva Self-Propelled Howitzer: Ukrainian forces successfully targeted and damaged a rare Russian 2S43 Malva self-propelled howitzer, marking the second known instance of this system being hit.
• Bradley BMP: Another destroyed Bradley BMP was reported on the Donetsk axis.

Geopolitical Developments

• The US Senate confirmed Scott Bessent as the new Treasury Secretary.
• US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports and stated his intention to reopen oil production in protected areas of Alaska.
• Trump also stated that DeepSeek's success should serve as a signal to US companies, emphasizing the need for Washington to focus on competition.
• Former US President Trump has threatened to use $330 billion of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine in purchasing American weapons.
• The US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years.
• European allies are pushing for US involvement in peacekeeping in Ukraine.
• Trump's administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
• A potential "100-day plan" for Ukraine, attributed to former US President Trump, has surfaced in the media.
• Europe is reportedly preparing for a potential escalation of the conflict.
• Turkey has expressed its intention to assist the EU in replacing gas transit through Ukraine.
• Colombia has agreed to accept migrants from the US. Tariffs and some sanctions have been lifted. The impasse in relations with the US has been resolved, according to the Colombian Foreign Ministry.
• Lukashenko won the presidential election in Belarus with 87.6% of the vote, according to exit poll data. The turnout was more than 75%. It is noted that 5.1% of voters voted against all candidates. Thus, Lukashenko won his 7th victory.
• Saudi Arabia has purchased over €2 billion worth of arms from Russia, including 39 "Pantsir-S1M" air defense systems, potentially enhancing Russia's air defense capabilities.
• There are reports of an increase in Israeli arms shipments to Ukraine.
• Negotiations for a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict may begin in April-May, preceded by a meeting between Putin and Trump, according to Hürriyet. The first step will be a ceasefire agreement.
• The Swedish Security Service has detained a vessel in the Baltic Sea on suspicion of damaging a cable. The vessel, named Vezhen, is registered in Malta and departed from the Russian port of Ust-Luga on January 24.
• Spanish and American intelligence services detained a ship with a Russian crew off the coast of Portugal on suspicion of drug trafficking.
• A fiber optic cable between Latvia and Sweden has been damaged. A vessel suspected of sabotage has been detained.
• The Israeli ambassador to Russia stated that Israel will be represented at the May 9 parade in Moscow, despite criticism from Ukrainians.
• The UK government is considering selling two amphibious assault ships to Brazil at a significantly reduced price.
• Hungarian Prime Minister Orban demands Ukraine restore Russian gas transit to continue EU sanctions against Russia.
• The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" and stated only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue.
• Zelensky began copying Trump, according to Le Monde.
• Marco Rubio stated that Ukraine and Russia must "give up something" to end the war.
• Donald Trump said he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, but did not specify a date.
• Donald Trump said the US has a right to half of TikTok.
• Donald Trump signed a decree to create a structure in the US headed by Elon Musk to improve the efficiency of the government.
• Donald Trump expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
• Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days. This law also affects Ukraine.
• Trump signed a decree to abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.
• The US has officially exited the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement.
• French President Macron stated that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table.
• Zelensky stated that US peacekeepers should be sent to Ukraine.
• Zelensky said he is confident that Xi Jinping can push Putin to peace.
• Putin is ready for a conversation with Trump, according to Peskov.
• The Polish Foreign Minister has stated that Putin must earn a meeting with Trump, and that he is not the same Putin Trump knew during his first term.
• Preparation for direct negotiations between "Putin" and US President Donald Trump on a possible truce in the war between Russia and Ukraine is the only topic of discussion within the Politburo.
• Part of the Russian leadership put forward a claim to the "Russian city of Narva" on the agenda of the negotiations.
• Representatives of the Politburo were told that Trump intends to block all opportunities for Russia to bypass sanctions and "put an end to the gray fleet" that transports Russian oil products.
• A telephone conversation between "Putin" and Trump could take place in the next three days.
• The agreement on Ukraine was not reached because Zelensky wanted to fight.
• Trump administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
• China has reiterated its position in favor of dialogue on Ukraine, as stated by the press secretary of the Chinese Embassy in the US, Liu Pengyu, in response to Trump's comments on expecting Beijing's assistance in resolving the Ukrainian conflict.
• The EU has called the presidential elections in Belarus a "complete fake".
• Saudi Arabia responded to Trump's proposal to collapse oil prices by stating that Riyadh is focused on "long-term stability of the oil market."
• China responded to Trump's request for assistance in ending the war in Ukraine, stating that they are "ready to see all sides play a constructive role and create conditions for de-escalation and a political settlement of the crisis."
• The heads of foreign affairs of 27 EU countries will discuss on January 27th the 16th package of sanctions against Russia and the use of its frozen assets, according to an EU representative.
• The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sharply responded to Russia's demand for Ukraine to refuse to join NATO, stating that the architecture of European security is built on protection from Russia and that Russia has no say in this matter.
• US Secretary of State Blinken removed the official statement on the non-recognition of the future presidential elections in Belarus.
• NATO plans to share classified data on military production with the EU and defense industry representatives, according to Bloomberg.
• Trump reportedly plans to hold a phone call with Putin in late January or early February, followed by discussions with Ukrainian authorities.
• A potential meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin is proposed for February-early March 2025 to agree on the main parameters of a peace plan.
• A ceasefire is proposed from April 20, 2025, with the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region.
• An International Peace Conference is proposed for late April 2025 to formalize an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the US, China, select European countries, and "Global South" nations.
• A prisoner exchange "all for all" is proposed for late April 2025.
• A declaration on ending the war in Ukraine is proposed for May 9, 2025, with Ukraine not extending martial law or mobilization afterward.
• Presidential elections in Ukraine are proposed for late August 2025, with parliamentary and local elections in late October 2025.
• Ukraine would not join NATO and declare neutrality, with a NATO summit decision to prohibit Ukraine's entry.
• Ukraine would join the EU by 2030, with the EU committing to post-war reconstruction.
• Ukraine would not reduce its army size, and the US would continue supporting its modernization.
• Ukraine would not recognize Russian sovereignty over occupied territories but would also refrain from military or diplomatic attempts to regain them.
• Some sanctions against Russia would be lifted immediately after the agreement, others over three years based on compliance.
• Restrictions on Russian energy imports to the EU would be removed, but subject to a special duty to fund Ukraine's reconstruction.
• Parties supporting the Russian language and peaceful coexistence with Russia would be allowed in Ukrainian elections. Actions against the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Russian language would cease.
• The issue of a European peacekeeping contingent is highlighted as problematic, with Ukraine demanding it and Russia opposing it.
• Europe is reportedly preparing for the "most extreme" military scenario due to concerns about a potential "Trump-Putin 2.0" alliance, according to NBC News.
• European governments fear that Russia may target them after Ukraine, especially if the US under a new administration does not provide support.
• Lithuania plans to mine bridges leading to Russia and is prepared to destroy them if Russian tanks attempt to cross. They have also stockpiled "dragon's teeth" anti-tank obstacles.
• Plans are underway to build a large-scale anti-missile defense system in Europe, similar to Israel's "Iron Dome."
• Norway has updated its emergency preparedness brochure for citizens, outlining how much water, food, and other supplies to stockpile in case of "military action."
• Germany has allocated around 100 million euros to restore public sirens that were dismantled after the fall of the "Iron Curtain."
• Swedish church authorities, at the direction of the armed forces, have begun searching for additional cemetery space in case the conflict reaches their shores.
• Concerns are widespread that a new US president might not defend historic NATO allies if they are attacked by Russia.
• Turkey intends to help the EU replace gas transit through Ukraine, according to the Turkish ambassador to the EU, Faruk Kaymakcı.
• Reports indicate a potential shift in the political landscape of Belarus, with incumbent President Lukashenko claiming a landslide victory in the recent elections, securing 87.6% of the vote according to exit polls.
• There is speculation about a potential "100-day plan" for Ukraine, attributed to former US President Trump, which has been published in the media.
• Europe is reportedly preparing for a potential escalation of the conflict, with concerns about a possible "Trump-Putin 2.0" alliance and a reduction in US support under a new administration.
• Turkey has expressed its intention to assist the EU in replacing gas transit through Ukraine, potentially utilizing the Southern Gas Corridor and connecting it to Mediterranean gas sources.
• The Wall Street Journal reports that US officials are shocked by Trump's suspension of foreign aid, fearing it could allow China and other rivals to gain influence.
• The EU is considering a UN-mandated peacekeeping mission, potentially involving troops from outside Europe, though skepticism exists regarding the feasibility of such a plan.
• Hungary's Minister of Foreign Affairs has signaled that the EU may "rape" European principles of unanimity if there is no consensus on the continuation of anti-Russian sanctions.
• NATO will reportedly share confidential military production data with the EU and defense industry representatives to foster "common thinking."
• A new "100-day plan" by former US President Trump for a settlement in Ukraine has surfaced in the media, though its authenticity is unconfirmed.
• Prime Minister of Serbia, Miloš Vučević, is resigning amidst student protests.
• Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is touring European capitals to rally support for the defense of Greenland, particularly in light of recent
• The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sharply responded to Slovak Prime Minister Fico's statements about "enemies".
• The head of the Russian State Duma alleged that there is a threat of nuclear war following Tucker Carlson's interview about an assassination attempt on Putin.
• The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs' sharp response to Slovak Prime Minister Fico's statements about "enemies" further highlights the strained relations between Ukraine and some of its neighbors.
• The internal political situation in Slovakia, with falling trust in Fico's government and protests against his pro-Russian course, adds another layer of complexity to the regional dynamics.
• The confirmation by the Ukrainian General Staff that the Nizhny Novgorod oil refinery was targeted further highlights Ukraine's ability to strike deep inside Russian territory.
• The reported temporary restrictions at the Murmansk airport due to security concerns also indicate a heightened state of alert within Russia.
• The update from the Kyiv City Military Administration (КМВА) regarding the fire in the Desnianskyi district confirms that there were no casualties and that the fire has been localized. This information helps to clarify the situation and alleviate concerns about potential harm to civilians.
• The statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense regarding the liberation of Novoyeлизаvetovka in the Donetsk People's Republic marks another significant advance for Russian forces in the region.
• The EU is considering disabling 15 banks from SWIFT as part of a 16th package of sanctions against Russia, along with a potential phased ban on Russian aluminum imports.
• The reported request from the new Syrian authorities for Russia to provide compensation "to restore trust" marks a significant shift in the relationship between the two countries.
• The delegation of Georgia has suspended its work in the PACE after the adoption of a resolution.
• Maria Zakharova urged to carefully check the accuracy of statements by Western politicians.
• The structures of the Domodedovo airport turned out to be under foreign influence, which caused the lawsuit of the Prosecutor General's Office, according to the newspaper Vedomosti.
• The world's wealthiest individuals have seen a $27 billion decrease in their net worth in the past 24 hours, primarily due to a decline in the stock prices of companies associated with AI and luxury brands.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces, with Russian troops making significant advances in the Donetsk region. The fall of Velyka Novosilka is confirmed, and the situation in Pokrovsk is increasingly precarious, with Russian forces nearing the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and severing a key supply route. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are under immense strain, with reports of a near-collapse. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, and Russian forces are consolidating their positions. Drone warfare remains a defining feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing UAVs extensively. Ukrainian forces successfully struck a rare Russian 2S43 Malva self-propelled howitzer, demonstrating their ability to target high-value assets. Explosions were reported in Berdyansk, indicating continued Ukrainian strikes on occupied territories. The international situation remains complex, with uncertainties surrounding US aid to Ukraine. While the 90-day freeze on most foreign aid was initially lifted, conflicting reports from US officials have created confusion. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiga's upcoming meeting with European counterparts in Paris will be crucial in securing continued European support. The reported involvement of North Korean troops in the Kursk region adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The new report about the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense seeking a project manager for communications and social media management suggests an effort to improve Ukraine's image and potentially attract more foreign support. The statement by political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko that negotiations and fighting may occur simultaneously underscores the need for Ukraine to prepare for a protracted conflict. The internal situation in Russia, including reported personnel shortages and criticisms voiced by Voenkor Kotenok, suggests potential vulnerabilities within the Russian military. The reported termination of the lease agreement for the port of Tartus by Syria indicates a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the region. The increasing demand for Indian workers in Russia's construction sector suggests ongoing economic challenges and a potential reliance on foreign labor. The information warfare dimension remains highly active, with both sides attempting to shape the narrative. The reported Japanese involvement in Central Asia suggests a broader geopolitical competition for influence in the region. New drone attacks have been reported in Mykolaiv and Odesa, with "Shahed" drones reportedly moving through Mykolaiv towards Odesa. There are also reports of drone attacks in Chernihiv. The destruction of another Bradley BMP on the Donetsk axis highlights the continued attrition of military equipment in the conflict. Reports of a significant drop in the number of people in Moscow willing to sign contracts for military service, coupled with an increase in the recruitment of foreigners, suggest potential manpower challenges for Russia.

Recommendations

1. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Urgently deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance and prevent further encirclement. The situation in Toretsk is particularly critical, given the reported near-collapse of Ukrainian defenses.
2. Address the Situation in Velyka Novosilka: Conduct rearguard actions in the surrounding areas to slow the Russian advance and inflict maximum casualties.
3. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk region and areas targeted by increased drone movements like Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure.
4. Improve Air Defenses: Strengthen air defense systems across the country, with a focus on protecting major cities, critical infrastructure, and areas experiencing increased drone activity.
5. Secure Supply Lines: Given the importance of logistics in the conflict, ensure the security of key supply lines, particularly in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
6. Address Equipment Shortages: Prioritize the procurement and deployment of new equipment, potentially through increased domestic production and international assistance. Leverage the newly secured funding from foreign partners to bolster Ukraine's defense industry.
7. Counter Information Warfare: Develop and implement strategies to counter Russian disinformation and propaganda. The reported expansion of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's PR and advertising efforts should be leveraged to counter Russian narratives and attract international support.
8. Enhance Intelligence Capabilities: Improve intelligence gathering and analysis to better understand Russian troop movements, equipment deployments, and strategic intentions.
9. Strengthen International Partnerships: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure military, financial, and diplomatic support. Address the confusion surrounding the status of US aid and seek clarification from US officials.
10. Address Internal Issues: Investigate and address the issues of defective equipment and ensure that Ukrainian troops are properly equipped and supplied. Address the concerns raised about the treatment of veterans.
11. Monitor Border Security: Continue to monitor and strengthen border security to prevent illegal crossings and the movement of illicit goods. Pay particular attention to the Kursk region, given the reported involvement of North Korean troops.
12. Prepare for Potential Escalation: The continued Russian advances, the intensification of drone warfare, and the potential for increased naval activity in the Black Sea suggest a high risk of further escalation. Prepare contingency plans for various scenarios.
13. Explore Diplomatic Solutions: While maintaining a strong military posture, continue to explore potential diplomatic solutions to the conflict. Acknowledge the assessment that negotiations and fighting may occur simultaneously, and develop a strategy that accounts for this possibility.
14. Address Humanitarian Concerns: The ongoing fighting and displacement of civilians necessitate a continued focus on addressing humanitarian needs and providing support to those affected by the conflict.
15. Maintain Public Morale: Given the challenging military situation and the potential for a protracted conflict, it is crucial to maintain public morale and support for the war effort.
16. Monitor Russian Internal Situation: Keep a close watch on the internal situation in Russia, including potential social instability and challenges within the Russian military.
17. Adapt to Evolving Tactics: The increasing use of drones by both sides, as well as the reported involvement of North Korean soldiers, highlights the need for Ukrainian forces to adapt to evolving tactics and strategies employed by the enemy.
18. Secure Critical Infrastructure: Prioritize the protection of key facilities, including energy infrastructure, transportation hubs, and communication networks.
19. Monitor Belarus: Keep a close watch on developments in Belarus, particularly given the reported drone incursion from Chernihiv Oblast into Belarus.
20. Address Corruption: Continue efforts to address corruption and ensure that resources are used efficiently and effectively.
21. Prepare for Long-Term Conflict: Develop a sustainable defense strategy that takes into account the potential for prolonged fighting and resource depletion.
22. Monitor Geopolitical Developments: Keep a close watch on geopolitical developments, such as the potential shift in US policy under a new administration and the increasing Japanese presence in Central Asia.
23. Address Social Issues: Ensure that Ukrainian veterans receive adequate support and reintegration assistance upon their return.
24. Counter Disinformation: Continue to counter false narratives and provide accurate information to the public.
25. Engage in Diplomatic Efforts: Maintain open channels of communication with allies and seek opportunities for dialogue to address the conflict and its broader implications.
26. Enhance Cyber Security: Continue to enhance cyber security measures to protect critical infrastructure, government institutions, and military networks from potential attacks.
27. Monitor Population Movements: Assess the potential impact of population movements on the conflict and regional stability.
28. Address Economic Challenges: Implement measures to stabilize the economy, support key industries, and mitigate the economic fallout of the conflict.
29. Maintain Transparency: Continue efforts to maintain public trust and ensure the efficient use of resources.
30. Monitor Sanctions Impact: Closely monitor the effectiveness of sanctions and their impact on the conflict.
31. Prepare for Potential Negotiations: Remain open to potential negotiations to end the conflict. Develop a clear strategy for negotiations that prioritizes the release of POWs, civilians, and displaced children.
32. Address Regional Security: Strengthen defenses in the Kursk region and enhance intelligence gathering to monitor and counter the North Korean presence.
33. Protect Critical Infrastructure: Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and develop contingency plans for maintaining essential services in the event of further attacks.
34. Expand Counter-Drone Operations: Enhance counter-drone capabilities in regions experiencing increased drone activity, including the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and the development of new tactics to counter improvised drone-deployed landmines.
35. Address Mobilization Challenges: Implement transparent and fair mobilization policies, provide adequate training and equipment to new recruits, and address public concerns about the conduct of the war.
36. Monitor Russian Military Developments: Adapt tactics and strategies accordingly to counter new threats and maintain a competitive edge on the battlefield.
37. Enhance Naval Defenses: Develop capabilities to counter Russian naval threats and protect Ukrainian coastal areas and maritime interests.
38. Maintain Information Security: Implement measures to protect sensitive information, counter disinformation, and prevent enemy infiltration of communication networks.
39. Leverage International Support: Coordinate with international partners to maximize the impact of military and financial assistance, particularly in the areas of air defense, counter-drone technology, and long-range strike capabilities.
40. Counter Russian Morale: Exploit any signs of declining morale or internal dissent within the Russian military through targeted information operations and psychological warfare.
41. Secure POWs: Prioritize the protection and humane treatment of prisoners of war (POWs) in accordance with international law.
42. Document War Crimes: Continue to meticulously document any evidence of war crimes or human rights abuses committed by Russian forces for potential future prosecution.
43. Address Mine Warfare: Develop and implement effective strategies to counter the threat posed by Russian mine warfare, including the use of drones for mine detection and clearance.
44. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on any intelligence indicating weaknesses in the Russian military's logistical capabilities, troop morale, or equipment maintenance.
45. Maintain Operational Security: Emphasize the importance of operational security (OPSEC) to prevent leaks of sensitive information that could compromise Ukrainian military operations.
46. Strengthen Partisan Activities: Support and expand partisan activities