Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 29, 2025, 20:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region continues to be the focal point of intense fighting, with Velyka Novosilka captured by Russian forces. Intense fighting continues around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, with Russian troops making incremental advances and consolidating positions. Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk and Toretsk are under immense strain, with reports indicating a potential collapse in Toretsk. Drone warfare remains a defining feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing UAVs extensively, including new reports of drone movements in Kherson, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions. Ukrainian forces are using drones to target Russian assets, including oil refineries and military facilities deep inside Russia, such as the recent successful attack on the Ryazan oil refinery, which has now suspended operations. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, and Russian forces are reportedly regaining territory and have reportedly captured Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya.

The US has lifted the 90-day freeze on most foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine, after an initial freeze was announced earlier today. This follows a decision by a judge in the District of Columbia to suspend Trump's decision to freeze grants until February 3rd. However, the White House press secretary has denied the lifting of the freeze, creating confusion and uncertainty regarding the status of US aid. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiga will travel to Paris in February for a meeting with the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Poland, Italy, Britain, and Spain to secure continued support. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is expanding its PR and advertising efforts, seeking a project manager with experience in communications and social media management to work with Western partners and potentially attract foreign mercenaries.

New developments include reports of Russian forces using a new tactic of drone-deployed improvised landmines disguised as batteries in the Velyka Novosilka direction, posing a significant threat to Ukrainian troops. Additionally, a joint appeal by Russian and Ukrainian human rights organizations has called for the release of political prisoners in Russia, the return of POWs and civilians held by both sides, and the return of displaced Ukrainian children.

Video evidence from "Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" Telegram channel shows Russian forces from the 34th Brigade using captured American smoke grenades to flush out Ukrainian forces from their positions near Pohrebky in the Kursk region, followed by drone strikes. This indicates ongoing fighting in the area and the use of captured Western equipment by Russian forces. A video from "Operativny ZSU" Telegram channel showcases Ukrainian forces conducting drone strikes on Russian troops and equipment in the Donetsk region, highlighting the continued use of drones by both sides. A video from "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel shows combat operations of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division in Dachnoe, indicating continued fighting in the Donetsk region.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed to be under complete Russian control. Russian forces control over 90% of Velyka Novosilka east of the Kashlahach River. Russian forces are advancing from Velyka Novosilka towards Dnipropetrovsk. The capture of Velyka Novosilka opens up opportunities for Russian forces to advance towards Bohatyr and the remaining part of the Donetsk People's Republic south of the Vovcha River. Video evidence shows Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair. Russian forces are reportedly using a new tactic of drone-deployed improvised landmines disguised as batteries in this area.
Pokrovsk:
- Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro.
- Intense fighting is reported near several settlements.
- Russian forces are advancing near Kotlyne and have made gains in the Bogatyrskoe direction, advancing to the area of Alekseevka.
- Russian forces are blocking Ukrainian supply lines near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk).
- Russian forces are advancing towards Novohrodivka and expanding control along the railway line towards Pokrovsk.
- The most intense fighting is near Yelyzavetivka and Vodyane Druhe.
- Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are estimated to be over 94,000 killed.
- Russian forces are reportedly advancing in the Pokrovsk direction, with fighting intensifying near Udachne.
- Russian forces report further advances near Dachne, Andriivka, Slov'yanka, and Novoandriivka.
- Russian forces have reportedly occupied new territories near Pokrovsk, approaching the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway.
Chasiv Yar:
- Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi and Sievernyi districts.
- Fighting continues on the outskirts, with Russian forces approaching from the north side of the railway and launching an offensive south of the railway station.
- There are reports of battles on the southwestern outskirts of the city.
- Russian forces are advancing towards Chasiv Yar from the southwest.
- A tank from the 24th Brigade reportedly destroyed a Russian BMD near the city.
Kurakhove:
- Most of the city has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno.
- Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk.
- Fighting is reported near several settlements, including Petropavlivka, Dachnoe, and Sukhykh Yal.
- South of Dachnoe, Russian forces are fighting in a large Ukrainian stronghold.
- Heavy fighting is reported in the eastern part of Andriivka, with Russian forces advancing from Shevchenko and Petropavlivka. The capture of Andriivka is strategically important for the defense of Ukrainian forces.
- Russian forces have reportedly broken through to the center of Dachne, advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk.
Toretsk:
- Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
- Battles are taking place on the northern outskirts and for key mines.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reports an increase in Russian assault activities on the Toretsk and Kramatorsk axes.
- Intense fighting is ongoing on the outskirts of Toretsk.
- Russian forces are advancing towards Toretsk, with ongoing battles on its outskirts.
Other Locations:
- Fighting continues in Zverevo.
- Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces.
- Battles are ongoing near Uspenivka.
- Fierce fighting is reported in the Zelenovka area.
- In Kramatorsk, a powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone.
- Video evidence suggests a strike on a nighttime industrial site, identified as the Kstovo oil refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region.
- Russian forces report destroying multiple Ukrainian assets in the South Donetsk direction.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Advances have been reported near Makiivka, Nadiivka, and Petropavlivka.
An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
In the Borova direction, Ukrainian positions have been established near Zelenyi Hai.
Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River.
Russian forces report they are beginning to storm Kupyansk and have destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove, initiating battles in Bohuslavka.
Ukrainian forces report that the Russians did not capture Novoyehorivka.
Russian forces reportedly destroyed 7,200 Ukrainian soldiers and mercenaries on the borders of the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week.

Kursk Region

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units.
Heavy fighting is reported near Nikolsky, with Russian forces approaching Mala Loknia and Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
Reports indicate significant casualties on both sides, including North Korean troops.
Russian forces report the capture of several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian and Russian forces engaging in combat and destroying each other's equipment.
Drone operators of the Special Operations Forces reportedly destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers.
Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults in the region.
Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed Ukrainian strongholds in a border area.
Russian forces report destroying a Ukrainian assault force during an attempted landing near Tetkino.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly transferred a sabotage and reconnaissance group to Belopolye (Sumy Oblast) and deployed over 100 paratroopers to the Sudzhansky district.
Reports indicate that North Korean soldiers in the region have killed 5 Russian marines and fled.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian truck carrying troops near the Kursk border using FPV drones.
Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces have suffered significant losses, amounting to over 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, and numerous other military vehicles and equipment.
Russian forces are advancing in the Kursk region, with ongoing battles near Sverdlykove and in nearby forested areas.
Video evidence from "Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" Telegram channel shows Russian forces from the 34th Brigade using captured American smoke grenades to flush out Ukrainian forces from their positions near Pohrebky, followed by drone strikes.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks: Drone activity reported, with explosions in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire was reported at an energy facility in Kharkiv. Infrastructure in Kharkiv was struck by drones. A drone attack targeted a civilian enterprise in the Novobavarskyi district of Kharkiv. Two drones fell in the Kyivskyi district. In the Rohanska community, a drone attack destroyed a private house and garage, injuring 2 people. In Shestakove, a drone attack caused a fire in a destroyed private house, with no reported casualties.
Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling.
Reports indicate Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack near Vovchansk.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead south of Dvorichna, occupied the forest near Zapadne, and made a significant advance in the center of Dvurichna. They report beginning to storm Kupyansk.
Russian forces reportedly destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove and initiated battles in Bohuslavka.
Russian forces have reportedly taken Dvurichna and are advancing towards Kupyansk.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly transferred a sabotage and reconnaissance group to Belopolye (Sumy Oblast) on armored fighting vehicles, which was detected and destroyed by Russian drone operators.

Zaporizhzhia Region

The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of guided aerial bombs being launched by tactical aircraft.
An air raid alert has been declared in the region.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian Kozak armored vehicle and thwarted a Ukrainian rotation.
At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Ukrainian artillery strikes on concrete shelters of Russian forces in Hola Prystan, Kherson region.
20 invaders were destroyed and one was captured by the group "Despite" of the 3rd SSO regiment.
Ukrainian forces from the 141st Mechanized Brigade are targeting enemy positions in the Zaporizhzhia region with drones.

Other Regions

Extensive Drone Activity: Air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses and forces have shot down numerous enemy drones in various regions, including Sumy, Lviv, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, and others. New groups of enemy drones were reported in several regions. Several drones were shot down on the approach to Smolensk. New reports of drone movements across multiple regions, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and near Belarus. A drone reportedly flew into Belarus from Chernihiv Oblast.
Tver Oblast (Russia): A drone was shot down.
Lipetsk Oblast in Russia has declared an air danger regime.
Cherkasy Oblast was attacked overnight, with air defenses active. A headquarters for coordinating emergency response has been established in the Umansky district. There is reported damage in the area.
Mykolaiv: The city has come under attack, with reports indicating the use of ballistic missiles. A powerful explosion was reported. Two people were killed as a result of a Russian missile strike on a food industry enterprise during the night.
Odesa: An attack on the port infrastructure was reported. Damage to residential buildings and civilian casualties were reported due to a Russian drone attack.
Belgorod: A private house was attacked by a drone, resulting in the deaths of a woman and a two-year-old child.
Murmansk: Temporary restrictions at the Murmansk airport have been lifted.
Sumy: Infrastructure facilities were damaged. Russian troops struck a Ukrainian deployment site, killing 18 and wounding 30.
Ryazan: Reports of a new attack on the oil refinery near Ryazan, with video evidence of a fire. The oil refinery has suspended operations following a Ukrainian drone attack.
Kazan airport implemented restrictions due to a drone threat. The restrictions have since been lifted.
Ukrainian forces are reportedly using drones to target and destroy a Russian oil refinery in Kstovo.
Restrictions have been introduced at Pulkovo airport in St. Petersburg.
Sevastopol: An air raid alert was reported, with maritime transport halted.
Kherson: A civilian was killed by a drone attack.
Dnipropetrovsk: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 13 drones in the region overnight. Infrastructure was damaged in the Samarivskyi district. Russian forces attacked Nikopolshchyna more than 10 times during the day.
Donetsk: Air defense systems are active, with reports of at least ten explosions.
Cherkasy: Overnight drone attack reported, with damage to an energy infrastructure facility in Uman.
Ukrainian forces report shooting down 46 out of 61 drones launched by Russia overnight.
An oil refinery in Kazan has reportedly been attacked by Ukrainian drones.
The Ryazan oil refinery has reportedly been attacked by Ukrainian drones for the second time.
Russian forces report that the main headquarters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the southern sector was destroyed by a missile strike.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces destroying various Russian equipment with FPV drones.
Reports indicate that Russian forces used a FAB-3000 heavy aerial bomb for the first time in the Kharkiv region.
Russian forces are reportedly using a new type of electronic warfare system called "Serdolik" in the Kharkiv region.
Reports indicate that Russian forces attacked Ukrainian military facilities in multiple regions with drones and missiles.
A Ukrainian military facility in Khmelnytskyi was struck by a Russian missile.
A Ukrainian military facility in Chernihiv was struck by a Russian missile.
A Ukrainian military facility in Kyiv was struck by a Russian missile.
A Ukrainian military facility in Lviv was struck by a Russian missile.
A Ukrainian military facility in Ternopil was struck by a Russian missile.
A Ukrainian military facility in Zhytomyr was struck by a Russian missile.
A Ukrainian military facility in Rivne was struck by a Russian missile.
An explosion was reported in the suburbs of Chernihiv, attributed to a Shahed drone. New groups of enemy drones have been reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region.

Internal Russian Military Situation

51st Army: Shortage of personnel on the front lines.
Sports Relays Order: Reports of an order for sports relays among military personnel, despite the ongoing intense fighting, leading to criticism.
Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel: Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure, leadership issues, treatment of veterans, and inefficiencies of the military bureaucracy. Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair. Discusses the importance of small-scale manufacturers in supplying the Russian military. Raises concerns about potential social instability due to the marginalization of returning veterans. Criticizes children of Russian elites receiving safe positions. Discusses internal conflicts and power struggles within the Russian military and volunteer forces.
The "Dva Mayora" Telegram channel reports the downing of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone by soldiers of the 1195th regiment near Pokrovskoe (Krasnoarmeysk), indicating the use of small arms against such drones. "Dnevnik Desantnika" Telegram channel reports on a planned 9.5% increase in military pensions in Russia, supported by the State Duma Defense Committee.

Political/Economic Situation

US Aid Suspension: The US initially announced a 90-day pause in providing assistance to foreign states, including Ukraine. However, this decision was later reversed, and the aid freeze was lifted. The White House press secretary, however, has denied the lifting of the freeze, creating confusion.
Ukrainian Military Re-evaluation Deadline Extended: Over 1 million people have not yet been re-evaluated. The deadline for re-evaluation of Ukrainian citizens with limited military fitness will be extended until June 5th.
Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus. New authorities in Syria have declared the termination of the previous constitution and the dissolution of all security services and armed formations, as well as the parliament. Ahmed al-Sharaa will serve as interim president.
Zelensky's Statement on Drone Components: Shahed drones used in recent attacks rely on foreign components.
Europe's Fear of Exclusion from Peace Talks: Concerns that the EU and Ukraine might be excluded from peace negotiations.
EU Sanctions on Russian Citizens: Sanctions on three Russian citizens allegedly responsible for cyberattacks.
Poland to Invite Trump to Three Seas Summit: A move that could have significant implications for US-European relations.
Ukraine's Defense Industry Funding: Secured over $1.5 billion in foreign partner funding in 2024.
Rising Inflation and Economic Difficulties in Russia: Despite reported economic growth, Russia is facing increasing inflation, rising prices, and labor shortages.
The "Rybar" Telegram channel reports on Japan's increasing presence in Central Asia, particularly in Uzbekistan, through the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), suggesting this is part of a broader Western strategy to influence the region. The "Sever.Realii" Telegram channel reports on various political and social developments in Russia, including Putin's statement that he is not ready to sign a peace treaty with Zelensky, the awarding of compensation to former Kirov Oblast governor Nikita Belykh, and the proposal to send high school students from Pskov Oblast to serve under contract. The "RBC-Ukraine" Telegram channel reports on the impact of the initial US aid freeze on Ukraine, highlighting the suspension of USAID programs and the potential consequences for local communities. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reports on the escalation of military actions in the Congo. Minister of Defense Umierov initiated an internal investigation into the Defense Procurement Agency and suspended its head, Marina Bezrukova. Arsen Zhumadilov, the current head of the State Rear Operator, was appointed as the acting head. Umierov argued that instead of ensuring timely supply to the army, the agency under Bezrukova's leadership was engaged in political games, and there were also recorded "leaks" of contracts and non-fulfillment of KPIs.
"RBC-Ukraine" Telegram channel reports on a statement by political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, who believes that negotiations on ending the war will definitely begin, but Putin will not stop the fighting. Fesenko argues that negotiations and the continuation of the war will likely happen simultaneously.
"Alex Parker Returns" Telegram channel reports on the increasing demand for workers from India in Russia's construction sector, citing the lower cost of labor as the main reason. This suggests ongoing economic challenges in Russia and a potential reliance on foreign labor.

Information Warfare

Discrepancies in Reporting: Reports from both Ukrainian and Russian media outlets highlight discrepancies between official statements and the actual situation on the ground.
Propaganda Videos: Videos showing the raising of the Russian flag in Velyka Novosilka and interviews with captured Ukrainian soldiers are being used for propaganda purposes by Russian sources.
Disinformation on Social Media: Misleading images are being used to spread disinformation and manipulate public perception.
Automated Bot Activity: Evidence suggests the use of automated bots on Telegram channels to post contextually relevant but inappropriate comments.
The "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel criticizes Ukrainian officials and "grant-eaters" for changing their stance on Trump and Biden, accusing them of seeking continued funding from the US. The "Operativny ZSU" Telegram channel shares a video of Ukrainian soldiers mining waterways around islands in the Kherson direction, suggesting ongoing efforts to hinder Russian naval movements. The "ASTRA" Telegram channel shares a video of Chechen authorities denying reports of Kadyrov's disappearance, accusing "enemy Telegram channels" of spreading disinformation. The "Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" Telegram channel shares a video of Russian forces destroying Ukrainian equipment and positions, highlighting the ongoing fighting in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions.

Updated Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and volatile. The capture of Velyka Novosilka by Russian forces represents a significant setback for Ukraine. The intense fighting around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove indicates a continued Russian offensive push in the Donetsk region, with Ukrainian defenses under considerable strain. The reported downing of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Pokrovskoe (Krasnoarmeysk) suggests that Ukrainian forces are still attempting to utilize drone warfare despite Russian advances. The increase in military pensions in Russia, as reported by "Dnevnik Desantnika," could be aimed at boosting morale and incentivizing continued service amidst the ongoing conflict. The reported occupation of new territories near Pokrovsk and the approach to the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway by Russian forces, if confirmed, would represent a significant advance and further complicate the situation for Ukrainian forces in the region. The reported breakthrough of Russian forces into the center of Dachne and their advance towards Dnipropetrovsk further underscore the intensity of the fighting in the Donetsk region. The video evidence of combat operations in Dachnoe from "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel further confirms the ongoing fighting in the area.

The situation in the Kursk region remains tense, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive stalled and Russian forces making gains. The reported involvement of North Korean troops adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The extensive drone activity across Ukraine, including the reported explosion near Chernihiv, highlights the persistent threat posed by Russian drones. The video evidence from "Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" Telegram channel showing Russian forces using captured American smoke grenades near Pohrebky suggests that Russian forces are adapting to new tactics and utilizing captured equipment.

The lifting of the US aid freeze is a positive development for Ukraine, potentially providing much-needed resources to support its military efforts. However, the initial freeze and the ongoing political debates surrounding aid to Ukraine underscore the uncertainties and potential challenges in securing long-term support. The confusion created by the conflicting reports from US officials regarding the status of the aid freeze further complicates the situation. The meeting of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiga with European counterparts in Paris will be crucial in ensuring continued European support. The new report that the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is expanding its PR and advertising efforts, seeking a project manager with experience in communications and social media management, suggests an attempt to improve Ukraine's image and potentially attract more foreign support, including mercenaries. The statement by political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, as reported by "RBC-Ukraine," that negotiations on ending the war will likely happen simultaneously with the continuation of fighting, underscores the complexity of the situation and the need for Ukraine to prepare for a protracted conflict.

The internal situation in Russia, particularly the reported personnel shortages in the 51st Army and the criticisms voiced by Voenkor Kotenok, suggests potential vulnerabilities within the Russian military. The reported increase in military pensions could be an attempt to address morale issues and incentivize continued service. The reported termination of the lease agreement for the port of Tartus by Syria and the declaration of the new Syrian authorities indicate a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the region, potentially impacting Russia's influence and military presence in Syria. The report from "Alex Parker Returns" Telegram channel about the increasing demand for Indian workers in Russia's construction sector suggests ongoing economic challenges and a potential reliance on foreign labor to fill the gaps.

The information warfare dimension remains highly active, with both sides attempting to shape the narrative and influence public opinion. The discrepancies between official reports and on-the-ground accounts, as well as the use of propaganda videos and disinformation, underscore the challenges in obtaining accurate information. The reported Japanese involvement in Central Asia, as highlighted by "Rybar," suggests a broader geopolitical competition for influence in the region, potentially impacting the dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine.

Recommendations

Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Urgently deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance and prevent further encirclement. The situation in Toretsk is particularly critical, given the reported near-collapse of Ukrainian defenses. The reported Russian advances towards the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway necessitate immediate action to secure this critical route.
Address the Situation in Velyka Novosilka: Conduct rearguard actions in the surrounding areas to slow the Russian advance and inflict maximum casualties. Utilize the new tactic of drone-deployed improvised landmines disguised as batteries to target Russian troops and disrupt their advance.
Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk region and areas targeted by increased drone movements like Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure, such as the airbase near Starokostiantyniv. The reported downing of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Pokrovskoe highlights the need for effective counter-drone measures.
Improve Air Defenses: Strengthen air defense systems across the country, with a focus on protecting major cities, critical infrastructure, and areas experiencing increased drone activity. The recent activation of air defenses in Kyiv Oblast and the reported drone activity near Chernihiv underscore the need for enhanced air defense capabilities. The air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region further emphasizes the need for robust air defenses.
Secure Supply Lines: Given the importance of logistics in the conflict, ensure the security of key supply lines, particularly in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Russian advances near Pokrovsk and the severing of the penultimate railway line to the city highlight the vulnerability of Ukrainian supply routes.
Address Equipment Shortages: Given the reported losses of armored vehicles and artillery systems, prioritize the procurement and deployment of new equipment, potentially through increased domestic production and international assistance. Leverage the newly secured funding from foreign partners to bolster Ukraine's defense industry.
Counter Information Warfare: Develop and implement strategies to counter Russian disinformation and propaganda, particularly in the Kursk region. The reported expansion of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's PR and advertising efforts should be leveraged to counter Russian narratives and attract international support.
Enhance Intelligence Capabilities: Improve intelligence gathering and analysis to better understand Russian troop movements, equipment deployments, and strategic intentions. Utilize the newly acquired reconnaissance spheres to enhance situational awareness.
Strengthen International Partnerships: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure military, financial, and diplomatic support. The lifting of the US aid freeze is a positive development, but long-term support needs to be secured. The meeting of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiga with European counterparts will be crucial in this regard. Address the confusion surrounding the status of US aid and seek clarification from US officials.
Address Internal Issues: Investigate and address the issues of defective equipment and ensure that Ukrainian troops are properly equipped and supplied. Address the concerns raised about the treatment of veterans and ensure they receive adequate support and recognition.
Monitor Border Security: Continue to monitor and strengthen border security to prevent illegal crossings and the movement of illicit goods. Pay particular attention to the Kursk region, given the reported involvement of North Korean troops.
Prepare for Potential Escalation: The continued Russian advances, the intensification of drone warfare, and the potential for increased naval activity in the Black Sea suggest a high risk of further escalation. Prepare contingency plans for various scenarios, including a potential expansion of the conflict to new regions.
Explore Diplomatic Solutions: While maintaining a strong military posture, continue to explore potential diplomatic solutions to the conflict. Engage with international partners to facilitate negotiations and seek a peaceful resolution. Acknowledge the assessment by political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko that negotiations and fighting may occur simultaneously, and develop a strategy that accounts for this possibility.
Address Humanitarian Concerns: The ongoing fighting and displacement of civilians necessitate a continued focus on addressing humanitarian needs and providing support to those affected by the conflict. Coordinate with international organizations to ensure the delivery of aid to affected areas.
Maintain Public Morale: Given the challenging military situation and the potential for a protracted conflict, it is crucial to maintain public morale and support for the war effort. Utilize the expanded PR and advertising efforts of the Ministry of Defense to highlight Ukrainian successes and bolster public confidence.
Monitor Russian Internal Situation: Keep a close watch on the internal situation in Russia, including potential social instability and challenges within the Russian military. Exploit any signs of dissent or low morale within the Russian ranks.
Adapt to Evolving Tactics: The increasing use of drones by both sides, as well as the reported involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, highlights the need for Ukrainian forces to adapt to evolving tactics and strategies employed by the enemy. The new tactic of drone-deployed improvised landmines disguised as batteries necessitates increased vigilance and the development of countermeasures.
Secure Critical Infrastructure: Given the repeated targeting of critical infrastructure, such as the power substation in Dnipropetrovsk and the oil refinery in Ryazan, prioritize the protection of key facilities, including energy infrastructure, transportation hubs, and communication networks.
Monitor Belarus: Keep a close watch on developments in Belarus, particularly given the reported drone incursion from Chernihiv Oblast into Belarus.
Address Corruption: Continue efforts to address corruption and ensure that resources are used efficiently and effectively. The ongoing audit of US-funded programs should be used to identify and rectify any instances of corruption or mismanagement.
Prepare for Long-Term Conflict: Given the assessment from The Times outlining four potential scenarios for the end of the war, including a protracted conflict, Ukraine must prepare for a potentially long-term struggle. Develop a sustainable defense strategy that takes into account the potential for prolonged fighting and resource depletion.
Monitor Geopolitical Developments: Keep a close watch on geopolitical developments, such as the potential shift in US policy under a new administration and the increasing Japanese presence in Central Asia. Adapt diplomatic efforts accordingly to secure continued international support.
Address Social Issues: Ensure that Ukrainian veterans receive adequate support and reintegration assistance upon their return. Address the concerns raised about the potential marginalization of veterans in Russia and take steps to prevent a similar situation in Ukraine.
Counter Disinformation: Continue to counter false narratives and provide accurate information to the public. Utilize the expanded PR and advertising capabilities of the Ministry of Defense to disseminate truthful information and counter Russian propaganda.
Engage in Diplomatic Efforts: Maintain open channels of communication with allies and seek opportunities for dialogue to address the conflict and its broader implications. The meeting of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiga with European counterparts will be crucial in this regard.
Enhance Cyber Security: Continue to enhance cyber security measures to protect critical infrastructure, government institutions, and military networks from potential attacks.
Monitor Population Movements: Assess the potential impact of population movements on the conflict and regional stability. Address the needs of internally displaced persons and refugees.
Address Economic Challenges: Implement measures to stabilize the economy, support key industries, and mitigate the economic fallout of the conflict.
Maintain Transparency: Continue efforts to maintain public trust and ensure the efficient use of resources. The ongoing audit of US-funded programs is a positive step in this direction.
Monitor Sanctions Impact: Closely monitor the effectiveness of sanctions and their impact on the conflict.
Prepare for Potential Negotiations: Remain open to potential negotiations to end the conflict. Develop a clear strategy for negotiations that prioritizes the release of POWs, civilians, and displaced children, as highlighted in the joint appeal by Russian and Ukrainian human rights organizations.
Address Regional Security: Strengthen defenses in the Kursk region and enhance intelligence gathering to monitor and counter the North Korean presence.
Protect Critical Infrastructure: Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and develop contingency plans for maintaining essential services in the event of further attacks.
Expand Counter-Drone Operations: Enhance counter-drone capabilities in regions experiencing increased drone activity, including the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and the development of new tactics to counter improvised drone-deployed landmines.
Address Mobilization Challenges: Implement transparent and fair mobilization policies, provide adequate training and equipment to new recruits, and address public concerns about the conduct of the war. Consider extending the deadline for re-evaluation of citizens with limited military fitness to ensure a thorough and equitable process.
Monitor Russian Military Developments: Adapt tactics and strategies accordingly to counter new threats and maintain a competitive edge on the battlefield. Pay close attention to the reported use of new electronic warfare systems and the deployment of heavy aerial bombs.
Enhance Naval Defenses: Develop capabilities to counter Russian naval threats and protect Ukrainian coastal areas and maritime interests.
Maintain Information Security: Implement measures to protect sensitive information, counter disinformation, and prevent enemy infiltration of communication networks.
Leverage International Support: Coordinate with allies to ensure that military, financial, and diplomatic assistance is aligned with Ukraine's strategic priorities and effectively contributes to the war effort. Utilize the secured funding from foreign partners to bolster Ukraine's

Situation Report