Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 29, 2025, 18:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure across multiple fronts. In the Donetsk region, Velyka Novosilka has been captured by Russian forces, marking a significant strategic and symbolic victory. Intense fighting continues around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, with Russian troops making incremental advances and consolidating positions. Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk and Toretsk are under immense strain, with reports indicating a potential collapse in Toretsk. Drone warfare remains a defining feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing UAVs extensively. Ukrainian forces are using drones to target Russian assets, including oil refineries and military facilities deep inside Russia, such as the recent successful attack on the Ryazan oil refinery. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, and Russian forces are reportedly regaining territory.

The US has lifted the 90-day freeze on most foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine, after an initial freeze was announced earlier today. This follows a decision by a judge in the District of Columbia to suspend Trump's decision to freeze grants until February 3rd. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiga will travel to Paris in February for a meeting with the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Poland, Italy, Britain, and Spain to secure continued support.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed to be under complete Russian control.
• Pokrovsk:
  • Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro.
  • Intense fighting is reported near several settlements.
  • Russian forces are advancing near Kotlyne and have made gains in the Bogatyrskoe direction, advancing to the area of Alekseevka.
  • The 425th Separate Assault Battalion "SKALA" is conducting combat operations in the area.
  • Russian forces are blocking Ukrainian supply lines near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk).
• Chasiv Yar:
  • Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi and Sievernyi districts.
  • Fighting continues on the outskirts, with Russian forces approaching from the north side of the railway and launching an offensive south of the railway station.
  • The 38th Separate Engineer-Sapper Battalion is reportedly demining roads in the Chasiv Yar direction.
• Kurakhove:
  • Most of the city has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno.
  • Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk.
  • Fighting is reported near several settlements, including Petropavlivka, Dachnoe, and Sukhykh Yal.
  • South of Dachnoe, Russian forces are fighting in a large Ukrainian stronghold.
• Toretsk:
  • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
  • Battles are taking place on the northern outskirts and for key mines.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reports an increase in Russian assault activities on the Toretsk and Kramatorsk axes.
• Other Locations:
  • Fighting continues in Zverevo.
  • Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces.
  • Battles are ongoing near Uspenivka.
  • Fierce fighting is reported in the Zelenovka area.
  • In Kramatorsk, a powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone.
  • Video evidence suggests a strike on a nighttime industrial site, identified as the Kstovo oil refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region.
  • Russian forces report destroying multiple Ukrainian assets in the South Donetsk direction.
• New Information: A video from "Dva Mayora" Telegram channel shows Russian forces downing a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" heavy drone near Pokrovskoe (Krasnoarmeysk). This indicates continued Ukrainian drone activity in the area despite Russian advances.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• Advances have been reported near Makiivka, Nadiivka, and Petropavlivka.
• An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
• In the Borova direction, Ukrainian positions have been established near Zelenyi Hai.
• Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River.
• Russian forces report they are beginning to storm Kupyansk and have destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove, initiating battles in Bohuslavka.
• Ukrainian forces report that the Russians did not capture Novoyehorivka.

Kursk Region

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units.
• Heavy fighting is reported near Nikolsky, with Russian forces approaching Mala Loknia and Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
• Reports indicate significant casualties on both sides, including North Korean troops.
• Russian forces report the capture of several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian and Russian forces engaging in combat and destroying each other's equipment.
• Drone operators of the Special Operations Forces reportedly destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers.
• Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults in the region.
• Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed Ukrainian strongholds in a border area.
• Russian forces report destroying a Ukrainian assault force during an attempted landing near Tetkino.
• Ukrainian forces have reportedly transferred a sabotage and reconnaissance group to Belopolye (Sumy Oblast) and deployed over 100 paratroopers to the Sudzhansky district.
• Reports indicate that North Korean soldiers in the region have killed 5 Russian marines and fled.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks: Drone activity reported, with explosions in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire was reported at an energy facility in Kharkiv. Infrastructure in Kharkiv was struck by drones. A drone attack targeted a civilian enterprise in the Novobavarskyi district of Kharkiv.
• Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling.
• Reports indicate Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack near Vovchansk.
• Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead south of Dvorichna, occupied the forest near Zapadne, and made a significant advance in the center of Dvurichna. They report beginning to storm Kupyansk.
• Russian forces reportedly destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove and initiated battles in Bohuslavka.
• Russian forces have reportedly taken Dvurichna and are advancing towards Kupyansk.

Zaporizhzhia Region

• The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of guided aerial bombs being launched by tactical aircraft.
• An air raid alert has been declared.
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian Kozak armored vehicle and thwarted a Ukrainian rotation.
• At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region.
• Ukrainian artillery strikes on concrete shelters of Russian forces in Hola Prystan, Kherson region.
• 20 invaders were destroyed and one was captured by the group "Despite" of the 3rd SSO regiment.

Other Regions

• Extensive Drone Activity: Air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses and forces have shot down numerous enemy drones in various regions, including Sumy, Lviv, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, and others. New groups of enemy drones were reported in several regions. Several drones were shot down on the approach to Smolensk.
• Tver Oblast (Russia): A drone was shot down.
• Lipetsk Oblast in Russia has declared an air danger regime.
• Cherkasy Oblast was attacked overnight, with air defenses active.
• Mykolaiv: The city has come under attack, with reports indicating the use of ballistic missiles. A powerful explosion was reported. Two people were killed as a result of a Russian missile strike on a food industry enterprise during the night.
• Odesa: An attack on the port infrastructure was reported. Damage to residential buildings and civilian casualties were reported due to a Russian drone attack.
• Belgorod: A private house was attacked by a drone, resulting in the deaths of a woman and a two-year-old child.
• Murmansk: Temporary restrictions at the Murmansk airport have been lifted.
• Sumy: Infrastructure facilities were damaged. Russian troops struck a Ukrainian deployment site, killing 18 and wounding 30.
• Ryazan: Reports of a new attack on the oil refinery near Ryazan, with video evidence of a fire. The oil refinery has suspended operations following a Ukrainian drone attack.
• Kazan airport implemented restrictions due to a drone threat. The restrictions have since been lifted.
• Ukrainian forces are reportedly using drones to target and destroy a Russian oil refinery in Kstovo.
• Restrictions have been introduced at Pulkovo airport in St. Petersburg.
• Sevastopol: An air raid alert was reported, with maritime transport halted.
• Kherson: A civilian was killed by a drone attack.
• Dnipropetrovsk: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 13 drones in the region overnight. Infrastructure was damaged in the Samarivskyi district. Russian forces attacked Nikopolshchyna more than 10 times during the day.
• Donetsk: Air defense systems are active, with reports of at least ten explosions.
• Cherkasy: Overnight drone attack reported, with damage to an energy infrastructure facility in Uman.
• Ukrainian forces report shooting down 46 out of 61 drones launched by Russia overnight.
• An oil refinery in Kazan has reportedly been attacked by Ukrainian drones.
• The Ryazan oil refinery has reportedly been attacked by Ukrainian drones for the second time.
• Russian forces report that the main headquarters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the southern sector was destroyed by a missile strike.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces destroying various Russian equipment with FPV drones.
• Reports indicate that Russian forces used a FAB-3000 heavy aerial bomb for the first time in the Kharkiv region.
• Russian forces are reportedly using a new type of electronic warfare system called "Serdolik" in the Kharkiv region.
• Reports indicate that Russian forces attacked Ukrainian military facilities in multiple regions with drones and missiles.
• A Ukrainian military facility in Khmelnytskyi was struck by a Russian missile.
• A Ukrainian military facility in Chernihiv was struck by a Russian missile.
• A Ukrainian military facility in Kyiv was struck by a Russian missile.
• A Ukrainian military facility in Lviv was struck by a Russian missile.
• A Ukrainian military facility in Ternopil was struck by a Russian missile.
• A Ukrainian military facility in Zhytomyr was struck by a Russian missile.
• A Ukrainian military facility in Rivne was struck by a Russian missile.
• New Information: An explosion was reported in the suburbs of Chernihiv, attributed to a Shahed drone.

Internal Russian Military Situation

• 51st Army: Shortage of personnel on the front lines.
• Sports Relays Order: Reports of an order for sports relays among military personnel, despite the ongoing intense fighting, leading to criticism.
• Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel: Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure, leadership issues, treatment of veterans, and inefficiencies of the military bureaucracy. Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair. Discusses the importance of small-scale manufacturers in supplying the Russian military. Raises concerns about potential social instability due to the marginalization of returning veterans. Criticizes children of Russian elites receiving safe positions. Discusses internal conflicts and power struggles within the Russian military and volunteer forces.
• New Information: The "Dva Mayora" Telegram channel reports the downing of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone by soldiers of the 1195th regiment near Pokrovskoe (Krasnoarmeysk), indicating the use of small arms against such drones. "Dnevnik Desantnika" Telegram channel reports on a planned 9.5% increase in military pensions in Russia, supported by the State Duma Defense Committee.

Political/Economic Situation

• US Aid Suspension: The US initially announced a 90-day pause in providing assistance to foreign states, including Ukraine. However, this decision was later reversed, and the aid freeze was lifted.
• Ukrainian Military Re-evaluation Deadline Extended: Over 1 million people have not yet been re-evaluated.
• Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus. New authorities in Syria have declared the termination of the previous constitution and the dissolution of all security services and armed formations, as well as the parliament. Ahmed al-Sharaa will serve as interim president.
• Zelensky's Statement on Drone Components: Shahed drones used in recent attacks rely on foreign components.
• Europe's Fear of Exclusion from Peace Talks: Concerns that the EU and Ukraine might be excluded from peace negotiations.
• EU Sanctions on Russian Citizens: Sanctions on three Russian citizens allegedly responsible for cyberattacks.
• Poland to Invite Trump to Three Seas Summit: A move that could have significant implications for US-European relations.
• Ukraine's Defense Industry Funding: Secured over $1.5 billion in foreign partner funding in 2024.
• Rising Inflation and Economic Difficulties in Russia: Despite reported economic growth, Russia is facing increasing inflation, rising prices, and labor shortages.
• New Information: The "Rybar" Telegram channel reports on Japan's increasing presence in Central Asia, particularly in Uzbekistan, through the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), suggesting this is part of a broader Western strategy to influence the region. The "Sever.Realii" Telegram channel reports on various political and social developments in Russia, including Putin's statement that he is not ready to sign a peace treaty with Zelensky, the awarding of compensation to former Kirov Oblast governor Nikita Belykh, and the proposal to send high school students from Pskov Oblast to serve under contract. The "RBC-Ukraine" Telegram channel reports on the impact of the initial US aid freeze on Ukraine, highlighting the suspension of USAID programs and the potential consequences for local communities. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reports on the escalation of military actions in the Congo.

Information Warfare

• Discrepancies in Reporting: Reports from both Ukrainian and Russian media outlets highlight discrepancies between official statements and the actual situation on the ground.
• Propaganda Videos: Videos showing the raising of the Russian flag in Velyka Novosilka and interviews with captured Ukrainian soldiers are being used for propaganda purposes by Russian sources.
• Disinformation on Social Media: Misleading images are being used to spread disinformation and manipulate public perception.
• Automated Bot Activity: Evidence suggests the use of automated bots on Telegram channels to post contextually relevant but inappropriate comments.
• New Information: The "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel criticizes Ukrainian officials and "grant-eaters" for changing their stance on Trump and Biden, accusing them of seeking continued funding from the US. The "Operativny ZSU" Telegram channel shares a video of Ukrainian soldiers mining waterways around islands in the Kherson direction, suggesting ongoing efforts to hinder Russian naval movements. The "ASTRA" Telegram channel shares a video of Chechen authorities denying reports of Kadyrov's disappearance, accusing "enemy Telegram channels" of spreading disinformation. The "Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" Telegram channel shares a video of Russian forces destroying Ukrainian equipment and positions, highlighting the ongoing fighting in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions.

Updated Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and volatile. The capture of Velyka Novosilka by Russian forces represents a significant setback for Ukraine. The intense fighting around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove indicates a continued Russian offensive push in the Donetsk region, with Ukrainian defenses under considerable strain. The reported downing of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Pokrovskoe (Krasnoarmeysk) suggests that Ukrainian forces are still attempting to utilize drone warfare despite Russian advances. The increase in military pensions in Russia, as reported by "Dnevnik Desantnika," could be aimed at boosting morale and incentivizing continued service amidst the ongoing conflict.

The situation in the Kursk region remains tense, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive stalled and Russian forces making gains. The reported involvement of North Korean troops adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The extensive drone activity across Ukraine, including the reported explosion near Chernihiv, highlights the persistent threat posed by Russian drones.

The lifting of the US aid freeze is a positive development for Ukraine, potentially providing much-needed resources to support its military efforts. However, the initial freeze and the ongoing political debates surrounding aid to Ukraine underscore the uncertainties and potential challenges in securing long-term support. The meeting of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiga with European counterparts in Paris will be crucial in ensuring continued European support.

The internal situation in Russia, particularly the reported personnel shortages in the 51st Army and the criticisms voiced by Voenkor Kotenok, suggests potential vulnerabilities within the Russian military. The reported increase in military pensions could be an attempt to address morale issues and incentivize continued service. The reported termination of the lease agreement for the port of Tartus by Syria and the declaration of the new Syrian authorities indicate a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the region, potentially impacting Russia's influence and military presence in Syria.

The information warfare dimension remains highly active, with both sides attempting to shape the narrative and influence public opinion. The discrepancies between official reports and on-the-ground accounts, as well as the use of propaganda videos and disinformation, underscore the challenges in obtaining accurate information. The reported Japanese involvement in Central Asia, as highlighted by "Rybar," suggests a broader geopolitical competition for influence in the region, potentially impacting the dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine.

Recommendations

1. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Urgently deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance and prevent further encirclement. The situation in Toretsk is particularly critical, given the reported near-collapse of Ukrainian defenses.
2. Address the Situation in Velyka Novosilka: Conduct rearguard actions in the surrounding areas to slow the Russian advance and inflict maximum casualties.
3. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk region and areas targeted by increased drone movements like Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure, such as the airbase near Starokostiantyniv. The reported downing of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Pokrovskoe highlights the need for effective counter-drone measures.
4. Improve Air Defenses: Strengthen air defense systems across the country, with a focus on protecting major cities, critical infrastructure, and areas experiencing increased drone activity. The recent activation of air defenses in Kyiv Oblast and the reported drone activity near Chernihiv underscore the need for enhanced air defense capabilities.
5. Secure Supply Lines: Given the importance of logistics in the conflict, ensure the security of key supply lines, particularly in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Russian advances near Pokrovsk and the severing of the penultimate railway line to the city highlight the vulnerability of Ukrainian supply routes.
6. Address Equipment Shortages: Given the reported losses of armored vehicles and artillery systems, prioritize the procurement and deployment of new equipment, potentially through increased domestic production and international assistance.
7. Counter Information Warfare: Develop and implement strategies to counter Russian disinformation and propaganda, particularly in the Kursk region.
8. Enhance Intelligence Capabilities: Improve intelligence gathering and analysis to better understand Russian troop movements, equipment deployments, and strategic intentions.
9. Strengthen International Partnerships: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure military, financial, and diplomatic support. The lifting of the US aid freeze is a positive development, but long-term support needs to be secured. The meeting of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiga with European counterparts will be crucial in this regard.
10. Address Internal Issues: Investigate and address the issues of defective equipment and ensure that Ukrainian troops are properly equipped and supplied.
11. Monitor Border Security: Continue to monitor and strengthen border security to prevent illegal crossings and the movement of illicit goods.
12. Prepare for Potential Escalation: The continued Russian advances, the intensification of drone warfare, and the potential for increased naval activity in the Black Sea suggest a high risk of further escalation. Prepare contingency plans for various scenarios, including a potential expansion of the conflict to new regions.
13. Explore Diplomatic Solutions: While maintaining a strong military posture, continue to explore potential diplomatic solutions to the conflict.
14. Address Humanitarian Concerns: The ongoing fighting and displacement of civilians necessitate a continued focus on addressing humanitarian needs and providing support to those affected by the conflict.
15. Maintain Public Morale: Given the challenging military situation and the potential for a protracted conflict, it is crucial to maintain public morale and support for the war effort.
16. Monitor Russian Internal Situation: Keep a close watch on the internal situation in Russia, including potential social instability and challenges within the Russian military.
17. Adapt to Evolving Tactics: The increasing use of drones by both sides, as well as the reported involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, highlights the need for Ukrainian forces to adapt to evolving tactics and strategies employed by the enemy.
18. Secure Critical Infrastructure: Given the repeated targeting of critical infrastructure, such as the power substation in Dnipropetrovsk and the oil refinery in Ryazan, prioritize the protection of key facilities, including energy infrastructure, transportation hubs, and communication networks.
19. Monitor Belarus: Keep a close watch on developments in Belarus.
20. Address Corruption: Continue efforts to address corruption and ensure that resources are used efficiently and effectively.
21. Prepare for Long-Term Conflict: Given the assessment from The Times outlining four potential scenarios for the end of the war, including a protracted conflict, Ukraine must prepare for a potentially long-term struggle.
22. Monitor Geopolitical Developments: Keep a close watch on geopolitical developments, such as the potential shift in US policy under a new administration and the increasing Japanese presence in Central Asia.
23. Address Social Issues: Ensure that Ukrainian veterans receive adequate support and reintegration assistance upon their return.
24. Counter Disinformation: Continue to counter false narratives and provide accurate information to the public.
25. Engage in Diplomatic Efforts: Maintain open channels of communication with allies and seek opportunities for dialogue to address the conflict and its broader implications.
26. Enhance Cyber Security: Continue to enhance cyber security measures to protect critical infrastructure, government institutions, and military networks from potential attacks.
27. Monitor Population Movements: Assess the potential impact of population movements on the conflict and regional stability.
28. Address Economic Challenges: Implement measures to stabilize the economy, support key industries, and mitigate the economic fallout of the conflict.
29. Maintain Transparency: Continue efforts to maintain public trust and ensure the efficient use of resources.
30. Monitor Sanctions Impact: Closely monitor the effectiveness of sanctions and their impact on the conflict.
31. Prepare for Potential Negotiations: Remain open to potential negotiations to end the conflict.
32. Address Regional Security: Strengthen defenses in the Kursk region and enhance intelligence gathering to monitor and counter the North Korean presence.
33. Protect Critical Infrastructure: Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and develop contingency plans for maintaining essential services in the event of further attacks.
34. Expand Counter-Drone Operations: Enhance counter-drone capabilities in regions experiencing increased drone activity.
35. Address Mobilization Challenges: Implement transparent and fair mobilization policies, provide adequate training and equipment to new recruits, and address public concerns about the conduct of the war.
36. Monitor Russian Military Developments: Adapt tactics and strategies accordingly to counter new threats and maintain a competitive edge on the battlefield.
37. Enhance Naval Defenses: Develop capabilities to counter Russian naval threats and protect Ukrainian coastal areas and maritime interests.
38. Maintain Information Security: Implement measures to protect sensitive information, counter disinformation, and prevent enemy infiltration of communication networks.
39. Leverage International Support: Coordinate with allies to ensure that military, financial, and diplomatic assistance is aligned with Ukraine's strategic priorities and effectively contributes to the war effort.
40. Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Ensure sustainable military production, maintain international support, and address the social and economic impacts of a prolonged war.
41. Adapt to Evolving Tactics: Continuously assess the battlefield situation and adjust tactics accordingly to maintain a competitive edge.
42. Monitor Belarus: Keep a close watch on developments in Belarus.
43. Address Corruption: Continue efforts to address corruption.
44. Secure Critical Infrastructure: Prioritize the protection of key facilities, including energy infrastructure.
45. Continue Utilizing Drones: The video evidence of Russian drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and equipment underscores the continued importance of drone warfare. Maintain and enhance Ukraine's drone capabilities for reconnaissance, targeting, and strikes.
46. Exploit Russian Vulnerabilities: The video from "WarGonzo" suggests that Ukrainian defenses behind the Mokri Yaly River may be hastily constructed and vulnerable to drone attacks. Exploit this potential weakness to disrupt Ukrainian defensive preparations.
47. Maintain Pressure on Multiple Fronts: Continue to engage Russian forces across multiple fronts, including the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kursk regions, to prevent them from concentrating their forces and to stretch their resources.
48. Enhance Situational Awareness: The drone footage highlights the importance of real-time situational awareness. Continue to invest in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities to monitor Russian troop movements, identify targets, and assess the effectiveness of strikes.
49. Counter Russian Morale: The video from "Alex Parker Returns" featuring an elderly Ukrainian Jewish man drawing parallels between Putin and Hitler can be used to counter Russian narratives and bolster Ukrainian morale. Continue to disseminate such messages to maintain domestic support and garner international sympathy.
50. Prepare for Urban Warfare: The fighting in and around Chasiv Yar and Kurakhove suggests a potential shift towards urban warfare. Prepare Ukrainian forces for close-quarters combat and develop strategies for defending urban areas.
51. Exploit Russian Logistical Challenges: The images from "Dva Mayora" showing civilian vehicles transporting aid suggest potential logistical challenges for Russian forces. Target Russian supply lines and logistics hubs to disrupt their operations.
52. Maintain Information Security: The video from "Dva Mayora" showing the downing of a Ukrainian drone highlights the importance of information security. Ensure that operational details and sensitive information are not inadvertently disclosed through social media or other channels.
53. Address the Needs of Veterans: The images and text from "Serhiy Lysak" underscore the importance of supporting veterans, particularly those with disabilities. Continue to develop and expand programs for rehabilitation, reintegration, and employment assistance.
54. Counter Russian Propaganda: The video from "Colonelcassad" accusing Zelensky of wanting to send teachers and students to the front lines is an example of Russian propaganda. Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to refute such claims and maintain public support for the war effort.
55. Monitor Political Developments: The reports on the lifting of the US aid freeze and the potential impact on humanitarian programs highlight the importance of monitoring political developments in allied countries. Maintain close communication with international partners to ensure continued support.
56. Exploit Russian Internal Divisions: The report from "ASTRA" on the potential nationalization of Domodedovo Airport and the accusations against its owners suggest internal divisions within Russia. Monitor such developments for potential opportunities to exploit these divisions.
57. Prepare for Long-Term Societal Impacts: The reports on the "OSNOVA" program in Nizhny Novgorod and the discussion of banning vapes highlight the long-term societal impacts of the conflict. Develop strategies for addressing public health issues, promoting healthy lifestyles, and fostering a supportive environment for future generations.
58. Maintain Diplomatic Efforts: The report from TASS on the new Syrian authorities' actions underscores the volatile situation in the region. Continue to engage in diplomatic efforts to address the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict.
59. Counter Russian Information Operations: The video from "Operatsiya Z" showcasing the destruction of Ukrainian equipment is an example of Russian information operations. Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to highlight Ukrainian successes and maintain morale.
60. Exploit Russian Equipment Losses: The video evidence of destroyed Ukrainian equipment, including tanks and armored personnel carriers, underscores the significant attrition of military hardware. Continue to target and destroy Russian equipment to degrade their combat capabilities. The new video evidence of a destroyed T-72 tank in the Andreevka area further emphasizes the importance of anti-tank operations. Prioritize the procurement and deployment of anti-tank weapons, including FPV drones, to counter Russian armored advances.
61. Maintain Operational Security: The detailed information provided in the "Сливочный каприз" message, including the date, location, and type of equipment destroyed, highlights the importance of operational security. Ensure that sensitive information about Ukrainian troop movements, equipment, and losses is not inadvertently disclosed.
62. Enhance Drone Warfare Capabilities: The continued use of drones by both sides, as evidenced by the videos and reports, underscores the importance of drone warfare. Continue to invest in drone technology, training, and counter-drone measures. The new video from "Dva Mayora" showing the downing of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone with small arms fire highlights the need for innovative counter-drone tactics. Develop and implement strategies for countering such heavy drones, which can carry significant payloads.
63. Monitor Russian Troop Morale: The "Dnevnik Desantnika" report on the increase in military pensions suggests potential concerns about morale within the Russian military. Continue to monitor Russian troop morale and exploit any signs of low morale or dissent.
64. Exploit Geopolitical Opportunities: The report from "Rybar" on Japan's increasing presence in Central Asia presents a potential geopolitical opportunity. Explore possibilities for cooperation with Japan and other countries to counter Russian influence in the region and secure alternative sources of support.
65. Address Humanitarian Needs: The images and messages from "Dva Mayora" highlighting the delivery of humanitarian aid from Crimea underscore the ongoing need for humanitarian assistance in conflict-affected areas. Continue to work with international partners and organizations to address the needs of civilians.
66. Counter Russian Propaganda: The message from "Colonelcassad" regarding the mobilization of teachers and students is an example of Russian propaganda. Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to refute such claims and maintain public support for the war effort.
67. Monitor Political Developments: The reports on the lifting of the US aid freeze and the potential impact on humanitarian programs, as well as the statements from various political figures, highlight the importance of monitoring political developments in allied countries. Maintain close communication with international partners to ensure continued support.
68. Exploit Russian Internal Divisions: The report from "ASTRA" on the potential nationalization of Domodedovo Airport and the accusations against its owners suggest internal divisions within Russia. Monitor such developments for potential opportunities to exploit these divisions.
69. Prepare for Long-Term Societal Impacts: The reports on various social and political issues in Russia and Ukraine highlight the long-term societal impacts of the conflict. Develop strategies for addressing public health issues, promoting healthy lifestyles, and fostering a supportive environment for future generations.
70. Maintain Diplomatic Efforts: The reports from TASS on the new Syrian authorities' actions underscore the volatile situation in the region. Continue to engage in diplomatic efforts to address the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict.
71. Exploit Russian Equipment Losses: The video evidence of destroyed Ukrainian equipment, including tanks and armored personnel carriers, underscores the significant attrition of military hardware. Continue to target and destroy Russian equipment to degrade their combat capabilities.
72. Maintain Operational Security: The detailed information provided in various messages highlights the importance of operational security. Ensure that sensitive information about Ukrainian troop movements, equipment, and losses is not inadvertently disclosed.
73. Enhance Drone Warfare Capabilities: The continued use of drones by both sides underscores the importance of drone warfare. Continue to invest in drone technology, training, and counter-drone measures.
74. Monitor Russian Troop Morale: Reports on potential morale issues within the Russian military suggest opportunities to exploit weaknesses. Continue to monitor Russian troop morale and exploit any signs of low morale or dissent.
75. Exploit Geopolitical Opportunities: Reports on increasing foreign presence in Central Asia present potential geopolitical opportunities. Explore possibilities for cooperation with other countries to counter Russian influence in the region and secure alternative sources of support.
76. Address Humanitarian Needs: The ongoing need for humanitarian assistance in conflict-affected areas requires continued attention. Work with international partners and organizations to address the needs of civilians.
77. Counter Russian Propaganda: The spread of disinformation and propaganda by Russian sources highlights the need for effective counter-narratives. Develop and disseminate accurate information to refute false claims and maintain public support for the war effort.
78. Monitor Political Developments: The reports on political developments in allied countries, including the US and EU, underscore the importance of monitoring these developments and maintaining close communication with international partners.
79. Exploit Russian Internal Divisions: Reports on potential internal divisions within Russia suggest opportunities to exploit these divisions. Monitor such developments for potential opportunities.
80. Prepare for Long-Term Societal Impacts: The ongoing conflict will have long-term societal impacts. Develop strategies for addressing public health issues, promoting healthy lifestyles, and fostering a supportive environment for future generations.
81. Maintain Diplomatic Efforts: The complex geopolitical situation requires ongoing diplomatic efforts. Continue to engage in diplomatic efforts to address the broader implications of the conflict.
82. Exploit Russian Equipment Losses: Continue to target and destroy Russian equipment to degrade their combat capabilities.
83. Maintain Operational Security: Ensure that sensitive information about Ukrainian troop movements, equipment, and losses is not inadvertently disclosed.
84. Enhance Drone Warfare Capabilities: Continue to invest in drone technology, training, and counter-drone measures.
85. Monitor Russian Troop Morale: Exploit any signs of low morale or dissent within the Russian military.
86. Exploit Geopolitical Opportunities: Explore possibilities for cooperation with other countries to counter Russian influence and secure alternative sources of support.
87. Address Humanitarian Needs: Continue to work with international partners and organizations to address the needs of civilians.
88. Counter Russian Propaganda: Develop and disseminate accurate information to refute false claims and maintain public support.
89. Monitor Political Developments: Maintain close communication with international partners to ensure continued support.
90. Exploit Russian Internal Divisions: Monitor developments for potential opportunities to exploit divisions within Russia.
91. Prepare for Long-Term Societal Impacts: Develop strategies for addressing public health issues, promoting healthy lifestyles, and fostering a supportive environment for future generations.
92. Maintain Diplomatic Efforts: Continue to engage in diplomatic efforts to address the broader implications of the conflict.
93. Counter Drone Attacks: The reported drone attack on Chernihiv underscores the need for enhanced air defense capabilities. Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones, particularly in areas near the border.
94. Secure Critical Infrastructure: The attack on Chernihiv also highlights the