Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 29, 2025, 10:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure across multiple fronts, particularly in the Donetsk region. The encirclement and capture of Velyka Novosilka are major strategic and symbolic victories for Russian forces. Intense fighting continues around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, with Russian troops advancing and consolidating their positions. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and inflicting heavy losses. Drone warfare is intensifying, with widespread attacks across multiple regions and new reports of intense drone activity. Reports include drone threats in Kherson, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Odesa, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, as well as in Russian regions. Ukrainian forces have successfully targeted and shut down the Ryazan oil refinery, which processes 5% of Russia's oil, using drones. New reports indicate movements of individual "Shahed" drones across multiple regions. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs by tactical aircraft in the Sumy region. A new video shows the aftermath of the liberation of Selidovo, with claims of Ukrainian forces executing civilians. The video is highly graphic and inflammatory and could be used for propaganda purposes. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Russian troops are advancing towards the Zaporizhzhia region after liberating Novoyeлизаvetovka. Drone attacks continue across various regions, with a confirmed strike on the Nizhny Novgorod oil refinery, causing a massive fire. The EU is considering disabling 15 banks from SWIFT as part of a 16th package of sanctions against Russia and a phased ban on Russian aluminum imports.

Ukrainian President Zelensky has appointed Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi to lead the "Khortytsia" operational-strategic group in the Donetsk region. Andriy Hnatov will be appointed as Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces. The Ukrainian defense industry has secured over $1.5 billion in foreign partner funding in 2024.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:

  • Russian forces have completed the encirclement and captured the city, a major logistics hub for Ukrainian forces.
  • Russian forces control over 90% of Velyka Novosilka east of the Kashlahach River.
  • Video evidence confirms the Russian advance and control over the settlement.
  • Russian forces have raised their flag in Velyka Novosilka over the city hospital.
  • Remnants of Ukrainian forces have retreated to the northwest outskirts.
  • Russian forces have been visually confirmed to be in the central part of Velyka Novosilka.

• Pokrovsk:

  • Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and advancing, having severed one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro.
  • The most intense fighting is near Yelyzavetivka and Vodyane Druhe.
  • Near Baranivka, Russian assault groups are attacking enemy positions towards Tarasivka.
  • Fighting also continues near Zelene Pole and Kalynove.
  • Russian forces are reportedly advancing in the Pokrovsk direction, with fighting intensifying near Udachne.
  • One woman was killed due to a Russian attack on the city of Pokrovsk.
  • Four people were injured in Russian shelling of Konstantinivka.
  • Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are estimated to be over 94,000 killed.
  • Russian forces are making a breakthrough towards Dnipropetrovsk.

• Chasiv Yar:

  • Russian forces continue to advance, controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant.
  • They have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Sievernyi district.
  • Russian forces have cleared the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict and advanced another 800 meters.
  • The basements and workshops of the refractory plant have been completely cleared.
  • Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts of the city from the north side of the railway.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian drone operators targeting Russian positions near Chasiv Yar.
  • The press service of the 24th Mechanized Brigade reports that the situation in Chasiv Yar is difficult.

• Kurakhove:

  • Most of the city has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories.
  • Active combat operations are reported, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
  • Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk.
  • Video evidence shows a soldier with the call sign "Ayvengo" and his comrades eliminating a Russian soldier near Kurakhove.
  • The "Сливочный каприз" Telegram channel reports on active fighting near Kurakhove, with a Russian infantry attack on Dachne and Russian forces advancing up to 1.5 km west of Kurakhove.

• Toretsk:

  • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
  • Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces capturing Russian soldiers in Toretsk.
  • The Ukrainian ISW reports that Ukrainian forces have retaken some positions near Toretsk. Battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts of the city, south of the "Fomikha" mine, for the "Toretska" mine, and the village of Krymske.

• Novoyeлизаvetovka: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially declared the liberation of Novoyeлизаvetovka.

• Kramatorsk:

  • A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk.

• Other Locations:

  • Vuhledar: Russian sappers have discovered mines made with 3D printers, which are difficult to detect with metal detectors.
  • Rozdolne: Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian troops with drones. The 23rd Mechanized Brigade is reportedly active in the area.
  • Fighting continues in Zverevo.
  • Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces.
  • Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka. Russian forces are conducting active assault operations.
  • Dachne: Video shows the successful use of an FPV drone by the 238th Artillery Brigade against a group of Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are advancing near Dachne. The 150th Motorized Rifle Division is reportedly active in combat operations in Dachne.
  • Kotlyne: Russian forces are making advances near Kotlyne. Ukrainian forces are reportedly holding the western part of Kotlyne (Dmytrivka).
  • Andriivka: Russian forces are clearing the settlement after a breakthrough.
  • Nadezhdenka: Reports indicate no enemy presence, but some roaming groups are still active.
  • Seversk: Russian forces report the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV control point and ammunition depot near Seversk.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka.
• In the direction of Hrekivka, Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.
• Russian forces are forming an "operational cauldron" around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Makiivka, Ivanivka, and Novosadove.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reports 105 Russian attacks on the Lyman axis in the past week.

Kursk Region

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units.
• Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolske, with Russian forces approaching Mala Loknia and Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
• Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
• Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering.
• Western officials and South Korean intelligence report significant North Korean casualties in the region.
• Reports of North Korean soldiers killing Russian marines and fleeing.
• Reports of an American mercenary known as "Doctor Death" being captured by Russian forces.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 1st Battalion of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade repelling a North Korean assault near Malaya Loknya.
• New video evidence shows residents of Makhnovka discussing their experiences during fighting between Ukrainian forces and North Korean soldiers.
• Russian forces report the capture of several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya.
• Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults.
• Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian pickup truck transporting Ukrainian militants to the contact line in the Kursk region.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 154th Territorial Defense Brigade destroying Russian equipment with drones.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 1st Battalion of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade repelling a North Korean assault near Malaya Loknya.
• New video evidence shows residents of Makhnovka discussing their experiences during fighting between Ukrainian forces and North Korean soldiers.
• The Russian MoD officially confirms the liberation of Nikolayevo-Daryino.
• The Russian MoD reports that Ukrainian forces lost over 190 troops, 2 tanks, and 10 armored vehicles on the Kursk axis in the past 24 hours.
• According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, since the beginning of the conflict in the region, Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost over 55,000 troops, 319 tanks, 238 infantry fighting vehicles, 183 armored personnel carriers, 1,626 armored fighting vehicles, 1,639 motor vehicles, 392 artillery pieces, 44 MLRS launchers (including 13 HIMARS and 6 US-made MLRS), 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, 8 transport-loading vehicles, 103 electronic warfare stations, 14 counter-battery radars, 4 air defense radars, 32 engineering vehicles (including 13 obstacle-clearing vehicles, 1 UR-77 mine-clearing vehicle, 9 armored recovery vehicles, and 1 command post vehicle).
• Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya.
• Video evidence shows soldiers of the 154th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade destroying enemy equipment in the Kursk region, including a "Bukhar" truck, a Chinese golf cart, three "Tigr" (or VPK "Ural") vehicles, a previously damaged tank, and a BTR.
• A video from the "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel shows Russian forces destroying three Ukrainian MRAPs (Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles) near the border in the area of Tetkino.
• The "Военкор Котенок" Telegram channel reports that a Russian FPV drone on fiber optics was targeted by a Ukrainian FPV drone interceptor.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks:
  • One drone is approaching Balakliia.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • One drone is flying from the Kharkiv region towards Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava regions.
  • Explosions reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack. A fire broke out at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack, causing power and water supply issues.
• Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling.
• Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack near Vovchansk.
• Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna. They have occupied the forest near Zapadne and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
• Explosions: Reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.

Other Regions

• Drone Activity:

  • Air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine.
  • Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds".
  • Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region.
  • All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region.
  • Cherkasy: The city is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast.
  • New groups of enemy drones have been reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region.
  • Dnipropetrovsk: The city of Dnipro is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast. A second explosion was reported in Dnipro.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk: The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack from the northeast.
  • One drone from the Ternopil region is heading towards Ivano-Frankivsk.
  • Two drones from the Khmelnytskyi region have moved into the Khmelnytskyi region.
  • One drone from the Vinnytsia region is moving into the Khmelnytskyi region.
  • Four drones from the Kirovohrad region are heading towards/through Pervomaisk.
  • One drone is north of Kropyvnytskyi, with a western course.
  • One drone is flying past Dolynska with a western course.
  • One drone is circling near Pavlohrad.
  • Three drones are in the Cherkasy area, with a southwestern course.
  • Three new drones are in the east of the Chernihiv region, with a southwestern course.
  • Tver Oblast (Russia): A drone was shot down, with no reported casualties.
  • 5 drones are flying over the Berislav district towards Bereznegovatoe.
  • 1 drone flew over Pokrov in a northerly direction.
  • 2 drones are flying over Pavlograd in a northerly direction.
  • 6 drones are in the Kremenchug region, heading northwest.
  • 2 drones are circling near Cherkasy.
  • 1 drone is moving from the Kharkiv region to the Dnepropetrovsk region, and 1 to the Poltava region.
  • 3 drones are moving from the Sumy region to the Poltava region.
  • Groups of drones are moving along the border of the Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading northwest.
  • Drones are in the east of the Mykolaiv region, heading northwest.
  • Drones are in the north of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the northeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the west of the Kharkiv region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the south and center of the Poltava region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the west of the Poltava region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the north of the Sumy region, heading south.
  • Drones are in the east of the Cherkasy region, heading north.
  • Drones are on the border of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading north.
  • Drones are in the northeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the Nikopol area, heading towards Kryvyi Rih.
  • Several groups of attack UAVs are moving through the Sumy region towards the Chernihiv region.
  • Drone security is reported in Moscow, Tambov, Tula, Rostov, Kursk, Bryansk, Lipetsk, Ryazan regions, and occupied Crimea.
  • Several groups of drones are moving through the territory of the Kherson region in the direction of Kherson.
  • Several groups of drones are moving through the territory of the Kharkiv region in a western direction.
  • One drone at the intersection of Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts, heading northwest.
  • One drone from Kirovohrad Oblast moving into Vinnytsia Oblast.
  • One drone south of Pavlohrad, heading south.
  • One drone north of Kremenchuk, heading north.
  • One drone from Chernihiv Oblast reportedly flew into Belarus.
  • New drone at the intersection of Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts, heading northwest.
  • Two drones in the south of Vinnytsia oblast, heading northwest.
  • One drone returning to Kremenchuk.
  • One drone north of Pavlohrad, heading northwest.

• New Drone Movements:

  • Chernihiv and Sumy: Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy drones moving towards Chernihiv and Sumy from the northeast. New groups of drones are reported in Chernihiv and Sumy regions, with a southwesterly and northwesterly course.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: One drone is flying between Ivano-Frankivsk and Kolomyia with a southwestern course. Another drone is heading towards or flying through Kolomyia.
  • Ternopil Oblast: Two drones have moved from Khmelnytskyi Oblast to the south of Ternopil Oblast.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast, with a western course. Three more drones are moving from Kirovohrad Oblast into Vinnytsia Oblast.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Three drones are in Pervomaisk district, with a western course. One drone is south of Kropyvnytskyi, with a western course.
  • Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is circling east of Smila. Another drone is in the central part of Cherkasy Oblast, with a western course.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Two drones are in the Nizhyn area, with a southern course. Two more drones are north of Chernihiv, with a western course. One drone is moving from Chernihiv Oblast into Kyiv Oblast. Another drone is east of Chernihiv, heading towards Nizhyn.
  • Kyiv Oblast: Drones are reported on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts, with a western course.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are reported in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast, with a western/northwestern course.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: Drones are reported in the northeast and northwest of Vinnytsia Oblast, with a western/northwestern course.
  • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Drones are reported in the west of Khmelnytskyi Oblast, with a western course.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Drones are reported in the center of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, with a western/southwestern course.
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the northwest of Mykolaiv Oblast, with a southwestern course.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the west and southwest of Chernihiv Oblast, with a southwestern course.
  • Ukrainian forces report repelling a drone attack in the Rostov region.
  • Kherson Oblast: The region is under threat of attack drones.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: A drone is in the southeastern part, with a western course.
  • Odesa Oblast: A drone is in the Black Sea waters, heading towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district.
  • Poltava Oblast: A drone is in the western part, with a northern course.
  • Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava Oblast Border: A drone is on the border, with a north-western course.

• Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate that explosions were heard in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast during an ongoing drone attack.

• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine, with the threat of ballistic missile attacks. Air raid alerts have also been issued in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to the threat of drone attacks.

• Sumy: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs by tactical aircraft in the Sumy region.

• Reports indicate that Russian forces shelled the Nikopol region seven times during the day.

• Overnight, Russia attacked Ukraine with two X-59/69 missiles and 61 drones. Ukrainian Air Force reports shooting down two X-59/69 guided missiles, 46 Shahed drones, and other types of drones in various regions. 15 enemy drones were lost without negative consequences.

• Video evidence from the 46th Airmobile Brigade shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions with drones.

• The 46th Airmobile Brigade reports successful drone operations against Russian troops.

• Ryazan oil refinery has suspended operations following a Ukrainian drone attack. The refinery processes nearly 5% of Russia's oil. The attack caused fires and damaged equipment.

• Kazan airport implemented restrictions due to a drone threat, with several flights delayed. The restrictions have since been lifted.

• Ukrainian forces are reportedly using drones to target and destroy a Russian oil refinery in Kstovo. Video evidence shows a fire at the "Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez" oil refinery, reportedly caused by a drone attack.

• Restrictions have been introduced at Pulkovo airport in St. Petersburg.

• Pulkovo airport in St. Petersburg has imposed temporary restrictions on receiving and sending flights.

• Sevastopol: An air raid alert was reported in Sevastopol, with maritime transport halted.

• Kherson: A civilian was killed by a drone attack between Veletenske and Rozlyv.

• Dnipropetrovsk: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 13 drones in the region overnight. Infrastructure was damaged in the Samarivskyi district, causing a fire.

• Sumy: Infrastructure facilities were damaged in Sumy and the surrounding region following explosions.

• Ryazan: There are reports of a new attack on the oil refinery near Ryazan, with video evidence of a fire.

• Donetsk: Air defense systems are active, with reports of at least ten explosions.

• Mykolaiv: A powerful explosion was reported in Mykolaiv. Two people were killed as a result of a Russian missile strike on a food industry enterprise during the night.

• Odesa: An attack on the port infrastructure of Odesa was reported. Images of the aftermath were published by the Izmail Regional State Administration.

• Belgorod: A private house in the village of Razumnoye was attacked by a drone, resulting in the deaths of a woman and a two-year-old child. The father and another child were injured.

• Murmansk: Temporary restrictions at the Murmansk airport have been lifted.

Military Equipment

• FPV Drones: Russian forces are using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced the start of domestic production of codified FPV drones. The "Военкор Котенок" Telegram channel reports that a Russian FPV drone on fiber optics was targeted by a Ukrainian FPV drone interceptor.
• UAVs: Ukrainian forces are using long-range attack UAVs. Ukrainian forces report destroying over 500 enemy aerial targets in the past week, including 2 guided missiles, 375 "Shahed" drones, 71 reconnaissance drones, and 59 other types of drones.
• "Kalibr" Missiles: Russia has deployed "Kalibr" missile carriers in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea.
• "Shahed" Drones: Russia launched another attack on Ukraine using "Shahed" drones.
• X-59/69 Missiles: Russia attacked Ukraine with two X-59/69 missiles overnight.
• Guided Aerial Bombs: The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation on the northeast axis and the use of guided aerial bombs on the Sumy region.
• "Орешник" system: Lukashenko stated that the "Орешник" system will be deployed in Belarus closer to Smolensk.
• France's Commitment to Deliver Mirage 2000-5 Fighter Jets: France's commitment to deliver Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine by the end of the first quarter of 2025 represents a significant boost to Ukraine's air capabilities. The jets will reportedly be used primarily as carriers for Storm Shadow missiles and to bolster air defense.
• Clarity AI Platform for UAVs: The mention of a new Ukrainian AI platform for UAVs, Clarity, capable of detecting even camouflaged military equipment, highlights the increasing role of advanced technology in the conflict.

Geopolitical Developments

• The US Senate confirmed Scott Bessent as the new Treasury Secretary.
• US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports and stated his intention to reopen oil production in protected areas of Alaska.
• Trump also stated that DeepSeek's success should serve as a signal to US companies, emphasizing the need for Washington to focus on competition.
• Former US President Trump has threatened to use $330 billion of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine in purchasing American weapons.
• The US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years.
• European allies are pushing for US involvement in peacekeeping in Ukraine.
• Trump's administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
• A potential "100-day plan" for Ukraine, attributed to former US President Trump, has surfaced in the media.
• Europe is reportedly preparing for a potential escalation of the conflict.
• Turkey has expressed its intention to assist the EU in replacing gas transit through Ukraine.
• Colombia has agreed to accept migrants from the US. Tariffs and some sanctions have been lifted. The impasse in relations with the US has been resolved, according to the Colombian Foreign Ministry.
• Lukashenko won the presidential election in Belarus with 87.6% of the vote, according to exit poll data. The turnout was more than 75%. It is noted that 5.1% of voters voted against all candidates. Thus, Lukashenko won his 7th victory.
• Saudi Arabia has purchased over €2 billion worth of arms from Russia, including 39 "Pantsir-S1M" air defense systems, potentially enhancing Russia's air defense capabilities.
• There are reports of an increase in Israeli arms shipments to Ukraine.
• Negotiations for a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict may begin in April-May, preceded by a meeting between Putin and Trump, according to Hürriyet. The first step will be a ceasefire agreement.
• The Swedish Security Service has detained a vessel in the Baltic Sea on suspicion of damaging a cable. The vessel, named Vezhen, is registered in Malta and departed from the Russian port of Ust-Luga on January 24.
• Spanish and American intelligence services detained a ship with a Russian crew off the coast of Portugal on suspicion of drug trafficking.
• A fiber optic cable between Latvia and Sweden has been damaged. A vessel suspected of sabotage has been detained.
• The Israeli ambassador to Russia stated that Israel will be represented at the May 9 parade in Moscow, despite criticism from Ukrainians.
• The UK government is considering selling two amphibious assault ships to Brazil at a significantly reduced price.
• Hungarian Prime Minister Orban demands Ukraine restore Russian gas transit to continue EU sanctions against Russia.
• The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" and stated only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue.
• Zelensky began copying Trump, according to Le Monde.
• Marco Rubio stated that Ukraine and Russia must "give up something" to end the war.
• Donald Trump said he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, but did not specify a date.
• Donald Trump said the US has a right to half of TikTok.
• Donald Trump signed a decree to create a structure in the US headed by Elon Musk to improve the efficiency of the government.
• Donald Trump expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
• Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days. This law also affects Ukraine.
• Trump signed a decree to abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.
• The US has officially exited the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement.
• French President Macron stated that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table.
• Zelensky stated that US peacekeepers should be sent to Ukraine.
• Zelensky said he is confident that Xi Jinping can push Putin to peace.
• Putin is ready for a conversation with Trump, according to Peskov.
• The Polish Foreign Minister has stated that Putin must earn a meeting with Trump, and that he is not the same Putin Trump knew during his first term.
• Preparation for direct negotiations between "Putin" and US President Donald Trump on a possible truce in the war between Russia and Ukraine is the only topic of discussion within the Politburo.
• Part of the Russian leadership put forward a claim to the "Russian city of Narva" on the agenda of the negotiations.
• Representatives of the Politburo were told that Trump intends to block all opportunities for Russia to bypass sanctions and "put an end to the gray fleet" that transports Russian oil products.
• A telephone conversation between "Putin" and Trump could take place in the next three days.
• The agreement on Ukraine was not reached because Zelensky wanted to fight.
• Trump administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
• China has reiterated its position in favor of dialogue on Ukraine, as stated by the press secretary of the Chinese Embassy in the US, Liu Pengyu, in response to Trump's comments on expecting Beijing's assistance in resolving the Ukrainian conflict.
• The EU has called the presidential elections in Belarus a "complete fake".
• Saudi Arabia responded to Trump's proposal to collapse oil prices by stating that Riyadh is focused on "long-term stability of the oil market."
• China responded to Trump's request for assistance in ending the war in Ukraine, stating that they are "ready to see all sides play a constructive role and create conditions for de-escalation and a political settlement of the crisis."
• The heads of foreign affairs of 27 EU countries will discuss on January 27th the 16th package of sanctions against Russia and the use of its frozen assets, according to an EU representative.
• The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sharply responded to Russia's demand for Ukraine to refuse to join NATO, stating that the architecture of European security is built on protection from Russia and that Russia has no say in this matter.
• US Secretary of State Blinken removed the official statement on the non-recognition of the future presidential elections in Belarus.
• NATO plans to share classified data on military production with the EU and defense industry representatives, according to Bloomberg.
• Trump reportedly plans to hold a phone call with Putin in late January or early February, followed by discussions with Ukrainian authorities.
• A potential meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin is proposed for February-early March 2025 to agree on the main parameters of a peace plan.
• A ceasefire is proposed from April 20, 2025, with the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region.
• An International Peace Conference is proposed for late April 2025 to formalize an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the US, China, select European countries, and "Global South" nations.
• A prisoner exchange "all for all" is proposed for late April 2025.
• A declaration on ending the war in Ukraine is proposed for May 9, 2025, with Ukraine not extending martial law or mobilization afterward.
• Presidential elections in Ukraine are proposed for late August 2025, with parliamentary and local elections in late October 2025.
• Ukraine would not join NATO and declare neutrality, with a NATO summit decision to prohibit Ukraine's entry.
• Ukraine would join the EU by 2030, with the EU committing to post-war reconstruction.
• Ukraine would not reduce its army size, and the US would continue supporting its modernization.
• Ukraine would not recognize Russian sovereignty over occupied territories but would also refrain from military or diplomatic attempts to regain them.
• Some sanctions against Russia would be lifted immediately after the agreement, others over three years based on compliance.
• Restrictions on Russian energy imports to the EU would be removed, but subject to a special duty to fund Ukraine's reconstruction.
• Parties supporting the Russian language and peaceful coexistence with Russia would be allowed in Ukrainian elections. Actions against the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Russian language would cease.
• The issue of a European peacekeeping contingent is highlighted as problematic, with Ukraine demanding it and Russia opposing it.
• Europe is reportedly preparing for the "most extreme" military scenario due to concerns about a potential "Trump-Putin 2.0" alliance, according to NBC News.
• European governments fear that Russia may target them after Ukraine, especially if the US under a new administration does not provide support.
• Lithuania plans to mine bridges leading to Russia and is prepared to destroy them if Russian tanks attempt to cross. They have also stockpiled "dragon's teeth" anti-tank obstacles.
• Plans are underway to build a large-scale anti-missile defense system in Europe, similar to Israel's "Iron Dome."
• Norway has updated its emergency preparedness brochure for citizens